Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current...Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current operational numerical models? What are the possible causes of model bias? In this study, intense rainfall events in the BTHR were categorized into two types: those mainly due to strong synoptic forcings(SSF) and those with weak synoptic forcings(WSF). The results showed that,the numerical forecasts tend to overestimate the frequency of intense rainfall events but underestimate the rainfall intensity. Of these, the overestimation of precipitation frequency mainly appeared in the mountainous areas in the afternoon. Compared with global models, high-resolution mesoscale models showed a notable improvement in forecasting the afternoon intense rainfall,while they all have an obvious bias in forecasting the nighttime rainfall. For the WSF type, both global model and mesoscale model have a low forecast skill, with large biases in subdaily propagation feature. The possible causes are related to a poor performance of the model in reproducing the local thermodynamical circulations and the dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer. So, the biases in forecasting the WSF type intense rainfall showed notable features of nonlinearity, which made it really challenging to understand their physical processes and to improve the associated forecasts.展开更多
Precipitation is an important indicator of climate change and a critical process in the hydrological cycle, on both the global and regional scales. Methods of precipitation observation and associated analyses are of s...Precipitation is an important indicator of climate change and a critical process in the hydrological cycle, on both the global and regional scales. Methods of precipitation observation and associated analyses are of strategic importance in global climate change research. As the first space-based radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Precipitation Radar （PR） has been in operation for almost 17 years and has acquired a huge amount of cloud and pre- cipitation data that provide a distinctive view to help expose the nature of cloud and precipitation in the tropics and subtropics. In this paper we review recent advances in summer East Asian precipitation climatology studies based on long-term TRMM PR measurements in the following three aspects： （1） the three-dimensional structure of precipita- tion, （2） the diurnal variation of precipitation, and （3） the recent precipitation trend. Additionally, some importantprospects regarding satellite remote sensing of precipitation and its application in the near future are discussed.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Project (Grant No.2018YFC1507606)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41505079, 42075154, 41475051 and 42030611)。
文摘Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current operational numerical models? What are the possible causes of model bias? In this study, intense rainfall events in the BTHR were categorized into two types: those mainly due to strong synoptic forcings(SSF) and those with weak synoptic forcings(WSF). The results showed that,the numerical forecasts tend to overestimate the frequency of intense rainfall events but underestimate the rainfall intensity. Of these, the overestimation of precipitation frequency mainly appeared in the mountainous areas in the afternoon. Compared with global models, high-resolution mesoscale models showed a notable improvement in forecasting the afternoon intense rainfall,while they all have an obvious bias in forecasting the nighttime rainfall. For the WSF type, both global model and mesoscale model have a low forecast skill, with large biases in subdaily propagation feature. The possible causes are related to a poor performance of the model in reproducing the local thermodynamical circulations and the dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer. So, the biases in forecasting the WSF type intense rainfall showed notable features of nonlinearity, which made it really challenging to understand their physical processes and to improve the associated forecasts.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41230419,91337213,and 41675041)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306077)
文摘Precipitation is an important indicator of climate change and a critical process in the hydrological cycle, on both the global and regional scales. Methods of precipitation observation and associated analyses are of strategic importance in global climate change research. As the first space-based radar, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） Precipitation Radar （PR） has been in operation for almost 17 years and has acquired a huge amount of cloud and pre- cipitation data that provide a distinctive view to help expose the nature of cloud and precipitation in the tropics and subtropics. In this paper we review recent advances in summer East Asian precipitation climatology studies based on long-term TRMM PR measurements in the following three aspects： （1） the three-dimensional structure of precipita- tion, （2） the diurnal variation of precipitation, and （3） the recent precipitation trend. Additionally, some importantprospects regarding satellite remote sensing of precipitation and its application in the near future are discussed.
