Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of ...Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.展开更多
This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on pine and oak forest dynamics in the midmontane central Himalayan forest and the ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types. Forest ecosystems pla...This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on pine and oak forest dynamics in the midmontane central Himalayan forest and the ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types. Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the livelihood of the central Himalayas as well as the adjacent plains, providing a number of tangible and intangible ecosystem services, at each stage of succession. The successional sequence starts from warm temperate grasslands, followed by early successional pine forests, mid-successional pine-oak mixed forests and eventually culminating in a late successional oak community. This successional sequence is considerably influenced by disturbances like fire, grazing, and lopping, which maintain the vegetation types in their current form and can act as potential drivers of change. Fire and grazing in grasslands and pine forests inhibit the successional process by hindering the establishment of pioneer and late successional species, respectively. Potential land-cover changes with forest succession can lead to changes in ecosystem services supply. We found that the number of ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types increase from early to late successional community. Current management approaches fail to include the dynamic nature of vegetation, which is essential for maintenance of ecosystem service supply. In conclusion, the trade-offs between ES of global （biodiversity and carbon） and local importance （fuel wood and fodder） have to be examined carefully in order to have effective conservation and management plans for the region.展开更多
To improve the Quality of Service (QoS)-aware Web service compositions considering constraints between cross-organizational business,this paper analyzes the types of constraints,and accordingly proposes a Chaos Geneti...To improve the Quality of Service (QoS)-aware Web service compositions considering constraints between cross-organizational business,this paper analyzes the types of constraints,and accordingly proposes a Chaos Genetic Algorithm (CGA). The algorithm creates an initial population of service compositions based on the chaos theory,and then processes individuals which violate constraints in the initial population using repair strategies. Next,a new fitness function is designed to gradually eliminate the infeasible compositions generated in evolution. Finally,the algorithm makes minor chaotic disturbances on the evolved group to accelerate convergence and avoid local optimum. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
Background: Forest management has historically focused on provisioning of goods (e.g. timber, biomass), butthere is an increasing interest to manage forests also to maintain biodiversity and to provide other ecosystem...Background: Forest management has historically focused on provisioning of goods (e.g. timber, biomass), butthere is an increasing interest to manage forests also to maintain biodiversity and to provide other ecosystemservices (ES).Methods: We evaluated the effects of firewood harvesting intensity on biodiversity and different ES in threecontrasting shrubland sites in northern Patagonia (Argentina). At each site, four harvesting treatments, representingvarious levels of harvest intensity, were randomly assigned to eight permanent sample plots of 31.5m× 45 mduring 2013–2014.Results: We found that the effects of increasing harvesting intensity on plant diversity changed from negative topositive (and from nonlinear to more linear responses) with increasing site productivity. Harvesting intensityshowed contrasting effects on variables related to fire protection ecosystem service, since it reduced fuel amount(potentially reducing fire spread) but also reduced live fuel moisture content (potentially increasing flammability) atthe three sites. Two variables related to soil formation and protection ES, leaf litter cover and aerial soil cover,decreased with harvesting intensity at the three sites.Conclusions: We conclude that shrubland management for firewood production may enhance biodiversity withoutcompromising certain important ES. The intensity of harvesting should be determined according to site conditionsand forecasted impacts on biodiversity, fire and soil formation and protection.展开更多
In recent years, because of increasing human activities, ecosystems have been substantially disturbed and their service functions have been greatly compromised. Based on the effect of land use changes on the major eco...In recent years, because of increasing human activities, ecosystems have been substantially disturbed and their service functions have been greatly compromised. Based on the effect of land use changes on the major ecosystem services, we estimated the ecosystem comprehensive anthropogenic disturbance index(ECADI) and analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of changes in the ECADI in China from 1990 to 2010. The average ECADI of the major ecosystem function zones in China in 2010 is approximately 0.382. The ECADI of Northeast China and North China is slightly higher than that of Northwest China and Southwest China. Most zones have slight changes in the ECADI. The average increases of ECADI in the major ecosystem function zones in China from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 are 0.0024 and 0.0002, respectively. The increase is mainly due to reclamation and urbanization, whereas the decrease is due to the implementation of ecosystem protection policies. During the last 20 years, the ECADI of water resources conservation zones increased first, and then stopped. The ECADI of soil conservation zones increased first, and then declined. The ECADI of sandstorm prevention zones, biodiversity conservation zones and flooding mitigation zones increased continuously. Our results may provide proposals to the government regarding land use planning and ecosystem protection plans in the major ecosystem zones. The major ecosystem function zones in the western part of China have been protected effectively. However, the major ecosystem function zones in the eastern part of China require more protection in the future.展开更多
基金funded as part of the Swiss NFI program by the Federal Office of Environment FOEN and the Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape research WSL。
文摘Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
文摘This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on pine and oak forest dynamics in the midmontane central Himalayan forest and the ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types. Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the livelihood of the central Himalayas as well as the adjacent plains, providing a number of tangible and intangible ecosystem services, at each stage of succession. The successional sequence starts from warm temperate grasslands, followed by early successional pine forests, mid-successional pine-oak mixed forests and eventually culminating in a late successional oak community. This successional sequence is considerably influenced by disturbances like fire, grazing, and lopping, which maintain the vegetation types in their current form and can act as potential drivers of change. Fire and grazing in grasslands and pine forests inhibit the successional process by hindering the establishment of pioneer and late successional species, respectively. Potential land-cover changes with forest succession can lead to changes in ecosystem services supply. We found that the number of ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types increase from early to late successional community. Current management approaches fail to include the dynamic nature of vegetation, which is essential for maintenance of ecosystem service supply. In conclusion, the trade-offs between ES of global （biodiversity and carbon） and local importance （fuel wood and fodder） have to be examined carefully in order to have effective conservation and management plans for the region.
基金National Natural Science Fund of China(61672022,61272036)Graduate Innovation Program of Shanghai Polytechnic University(A01GY17F022)Key Discipline of Shanghai Polytechnic University(XXKZD1604)
文摘To improve the Quality of Service (QoS)-aware Web service compositions considering constraints between cross-organizational business,this paper analyzes the types of constraints,and accordingly proposes a Chaos Genetic Algorithm (CGA). The algorithm creates an initial population of service compositions based on the chaos theory,and then processes individuals which violate constraints in the initial population using repair strategies. Next,a new fitness function is designed to gradually eliminate the infeasible compositions generated in evolution. Finally,the algorithm makes minor chaotic disturbances on the evolved group to accelerate convergence and avoid local optimum. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
基金Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica–Argentina(PICT 2013–1079 and PICT 2016–0305)a CONICET scholarship to the first author.
文摘Background: Forest management has historically focused on provisioning of goods (e.g. timber, biomass), butthere is an increasing interest to manage forests also to maintain biodiversity and to provide other ecosystemservices (ES).Methods: We evaluated the effects of firewood harvesting intensity on biodiversity and different ES in threecontrasting shrubland sites in northern Patagonia (Argentina). At each site, four harvesting treatments, representingvarious levels of harvest intensity, were randomly assigned to eight permanent sample plots of 31.5m× 45 mduring 2013–2014.Results: We found that the effects of increasing harvesting intensity on plant diversity changed from negative topositive (and from nonlinear to more linear responses) with increasing site productivity. Harvesting intensityshowed contrasting effects on variables related to fire protection ecosystem service, since it reduced fuel amount(potentially reducing fire spread) but also reduced live fuel moisture content (potentially increasing flammability) atthe three sites. Two variables related to soil formation and protection ES, leaf litter cover and aerial soil cover,decreased with harvesting intensity at the three sites.Conclusions: We conclude that shrubland management for firewood production may enhance biodiversity withoutcompromising certain important ES. The intensity of harvesting should be determined according to site conditionsand forecasted impacts on biodiversity, fire and soil formation and protection.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Basic Research Program of China(No.2014CB954302)National Science and Technology Support Plan Project of China(No.2013BAC03B04)
文摘In recent years, because of increasing human activities, ecosystems have been substantially disturbed and their service functions have been greatly compromised. Based on the effect of land use changes on the major ecosystem services, we estimated the ecosystem comprehensive anthropogenic disturbance index(ECADI) and analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of changes in the ECADI in China from 1990 to 2010. The average ECADI of the major ecosystem function zones in China in 2010 is approximately 0.382. The ECADI of Northeast China and North China is slightly higher than that of Northwest China and Southwest China. Most zones have slight changes in the ECADI. The average increases of ECADI in the major ecosystem function zones in China from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 are 0.0024 and 0.0002, respectively. The increase is mainly due to reclamation and urbanization, whereas the decrease is due to the implementation of ecosystem protection policies. During the last 20 years, the ECADI of water resources conservation zones increased first, and then stopped. The ECADI of soil conservation zones increased first, and then declined. The ECADI of sandstorm prevention zones, biodiversity conservation zones and flooding mitigation zones increased continuously. Our results may provide proposals to the government regarding land use planning and ecosystem protection plans in the major ecosystem zones. The major ecosystem function zones in the western part of China have been protected effectively. However, the major ecosystem function zones in the eastern part of China require more protection in the future.
