Glacier area change (1993-2019) and its relationship to debris cover, proglacial lakes, and morphological parameters in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin, Western Himalaya, India

Glacier inventories serve as critical baseline data for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers.The present study maps the outlines of glaciers in the Chandra-Bhaga Basin(western Himalaya)for the years 1993,2000,2010,and 2019 using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced Thematic Mapper(ETM),and Operational Land Imager(OLI)datasets.A total of 251 glaciers,each having an area above 0.5 km^(2),were identified,which include 216 clean-ice and 35 debris-covered glaciers.Area changes are estimated for three periods:1993-2000,2000-2010,and 2010-2019.The total glacierized area was 996±62 km^(2) in 1993,which decreased to 973±70 km^(2) in 2019.The mean rate of glacier area loss was higher in the recent decade(2010-2019),at 0.036 km^(2),compared to previous decades(0.029 km^(2) in 2000-2010 and 0.025 km^(2) in 1993-2000).Supraglacial debris cover changes are also mapped over the period of 1993 and 2019.It is found that the supraglacial debris cover increased by 14.12±2.54 km^(2)(15.2%)during 1993-2019.Extensive field surveys on Chhota Shigri,Panchi II,Patsio,Hamtah,Mulkila,and Yoche Lungpa glaciers were carried out to validate the glacier outlines and supraglacial debris cover estimated using satellite datasets.Controls of various morphological parameters on retreat were also analyzed.It is observed that small,clean ice,south oriented glaciers,and glaciers with proglacial lakes are losing area at faster rates than other glaciers in the basin.

Large-scale characteristics of thermokarst lakes across the source area of the Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

As significant evidence of permafrost degradation,thermokarst lakes play an important role in the permafrost regions by regulating hydrology,ecology,and biogeochemistry.In the Sources Area of the Yellow River(SAYR),permafrost degradation has accelerated since the 1980s,and numerous thermokarst lakes have been discovered.In this paper,we use Sentinel-2 images to extract thermokarst lake boundaries and perform a regional-scale study on their geometry across the permafrost region in the SAYR.We also explored the spatiotemporal variations and potential drivers from the perspectives of the permafrost,climate,terrain and vegetation conditions.The results showed that there were 47,518 thermokarst lakes in 2021 with a total area of 190.22×106 m^(2),with an average size of 4,003.3 m^(2).The 44,928 ponds(≤10,000 m^(2))predominated the whole lake number(94.1%)but contributed to a small portion of the total lake area(28.8%).With 2,590 features(5.9%),small-sized(10,000 to 100,000 m^(2))and large-sized lakes(>100,000 m^(2))constituted up to 71.2%of the total lake area.Thermokarst lakes developed more significantly in warm permafrost regions than in cold permafrost areas;74.1%of lakes with a total area of 119.6×106 m^(2)(62.9%),were distributed in warm permafrost regions.Most thermokarst lakes were likely to develop within the elevation range of 4,500~4,800 m,on flat terrain(slope<10°),on SE and S aspects and in alpine meadow areas.The thermokarst lakes in the study region experienced significant shrinkage between 1990 and 2021,characterized by obvious lake drainage;the lake numbers decreased by 5418(56.1%),with a decreasing area of 58.63×106 m^(2)(49.0%).This shrinkage of the thermokarst lake area was attributable mainly to the intensified degradation of rich-ice permafrost thawing arising from continued climate warming,despite the wetting climatic trend.

Epidemiology of Low Birth Weight in the Lake Areas of Cotonou (Benin Republic)

Introduction: Low birth weight is a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of low birth weight in the lake areas of Cotonou. Methods: A cross-sectional analytical study included 931 records of women who gave birth in 2022 in the Cotonou 1-4 health zone. Completed maternity records were included in this study, except for premature births and congenital malformations. Birth weight was the dependent variable. Sociodemographic, obstetrical, preventive care and child-related data were collected using a digitized form. These data were analyzed using SPSS software to determine the prevalence and factors associated with low birth weight using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of low birth weight was 16.30%. Factors related to this prevalence were non-use of mosquito nets during pregnancy (OR = 2.72;CI: 1.275 - 5.805), twin pregnancy (OR = 9.97;CI: 3.869 - 25.696), previous abortion (OR = 1.61;CI: 1.034 - 2.515), low number of pregnancy (OR = 3.97;CI: 1.276 - 12.393), trimester of first antenatal visit (OR = 3.47;CI: 1.821 - 6.638) and birth size less than 45 cm (OR = 5.98;CI: 2.965 - 12.083). Conclusion: The prevalence obtained from this study justifies the need to support pregnant women in this health zone. It is, therefore, essential to strengthen communication and health promotion strategies for women before, during, and after pregnancy.

Analysis of Application Status and Recommendations for Shade-Tolerant Lawns and Ground Cover Plants in the West Lake Scenic Area

Taking 8 parks in Xihu Scenic Area as the survey objects, this study found that there are 77 kinds of shade-tolerant lawns and ground cover plants under the forest in good growth condition, and there are 3 types of application forms: dense forest, sparse forest and forest edge. In response to the existing problems, it is proposed that it is necessary to adhere to principles of ecology, adapt to local conditions and plant suitable varieties in accordance with local conditions, develop and use new varieties of wild shade-tolerant lawns and ground cover plants, and strengthen the promotion of the mixed planting model of shade-tolerant lawns and ground cover plants, so as to provide guidance for the better use of shade-tolerant lawns and ground cover under the forest in the West Lake Scenic Area in the future.

Epidemiology of Low Birth Weight in the Lake Areas of Cotonou (Benin Republic)

Introduction: Low birth weight is a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiology of low birth weight in the lake areas of Cotonou. Methods: A cross-sectional analytical study included 931 records of women who gave birth in 2022 in the Cotonou 1-4 health zone. Completed maternity records were included in this study, except for premature births and congenital malformations. Birth weight was the dependent variable. Sociodemographic, obstetrical, preventive care and child-related data were collected using a digitized form. These data were analyzed using SPSS software to determine the prevalence and factors associated with low birth weight using multiple logistic regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of low birth weight was 16.30%. Factors related to this prevalence were non-use of mosquito nets during pregnancy (OR = 2.72;CI: 1.275 - 5.805), twin pregnancy (OR = 9.97;CI: 3.869 - 25.696), previous abortion (OR = 1.61;CI: 1.034 - 2.515), low number of pregnancy (OR = 3.97;CI: 1.276 - 12.393), trimester of first antenatal visit (OR = 3.47;CI: 1.821 - 6.638) and birth size less than 45 cm (OR = 5.98;CI: 2.965 - 12.083). Conclusion: The prevalence obtained from this study justifies the need to support pregnant women in this health zone. It is, therefore, essential to strengthen communication and health promotion strategies for women before, during, and after pregnancy.

Eco-compensation effects of the wetland recovery in Dongting Lake area

Eco-compensation is an environmental economic instrument for internalization of external cost. Returning farmland to lake is one of the important parts of restoring wetland ecosystem function in the Yangtze River Valley of China. Whether the project of lake recovery can be successful depends on the compensation to the farmers who have lost their original benefits and contributed to the wetland ecosystem recovery by returning farmland to lake. Aiming at the wetland recovery of the Dongting Lake, the practical implementation of pro- grams of the lake recovery and flood control in this area has been challenged by the heavy task of population resettlement, so it is an ideal area for case studies to reach the academic objectives proposed as the above. Based on field survey and experimentation, this research evaluated the benefit losses of the resettled farmers and the increased values of ecosystem service functions caused by wetland recovery, and furthermore, the value of eco-compensation for relocated farmers was calculated by considering the combination of the farmers＇ compensation appeal. The value of eco-compensation for relocated farmers in the Dongting Lake area was 6084.5 yuan per household by synthetic analysis of the effects on wetland ecosystem restoration. Moreover, this article took Dongting Lake area as a case to study and explore the basic issues of the eco-compensation by returning farmland to lake, that was who should pay, who should be paid, how much the payment was and what the payment means was, which sought the mechanisms of wetland restoration eco-compensation and prompted the people＇s enthusiasms for ecological restoration.

Discussion on the Green Tax Stimulation Measure of Nitrogen Fertilizer Non-Point Source Pollution Control-Taking the Dongting Lake Area in China as a Case

A study on designing the tax of nitrogen fertilizer can provide a new method for controlling nitrogen fertilizer non-point source pollution. The tax design of nitrogen fertilizer was discussed by utilizing the external theory and the demand elasticity theory. The results indicated that the coefficient of price elasticity of nitrogen fertilizer demand is -0.21, which instructed that the market demand is in lack of elasticity in the short period and the impact of nitrogen fertilizer manufacturers is subtle. The 11 counties （cities and boroughs） in the Dongting Lake area in China, where the farmland nitrogen application surpassed the average ecological fertilization dosage, is listed to the taxation scope of nitrogen fertilizer tax. The environment loss will reduce 0.07 hundred million RMB yuan and the revenue will increase 0.89 hundred million RMB yuan in the country after levying on nitrogen fertilizer. The loss, which was brought by the decreasing food supplies production, will be 0.58 hundred million RMB yuan and the net social benefit will be 0.38 hundred million RMB yuan following revenue collection. The variation scope of the increasing expenditure of farmers will range from 0.95 to 1.49%. The variation scope of the income of farmers will range from -8.41 to 6.44%. The 5 areas, Yunxi Borough, Junshan Borough, Hanshou County, Jinshi City, and Ziyang Borough, had an increase in food supplies production after the revenue collection. The environment loss will reduce 0.01 hundred million RMB yuan and the revenue will increase 0.16 hundred million RMB yuan in the country after levying on nitrogen fertilizer. The economic benefits, which was brought by the increasing cereals production, will be 0.67 hundred million RMB yuan and the net social benefit will be 0.84 hundred million RMB yuan after revenue collection. The variation scope of the increasing expenditure of farmers will range from 0.95 to 1.06%. The variation scope of the increasing income of farmers will range from 0.69 to 6.44%. Considering the entire social welfare, taxation of nitrogen fertilizer will have more advantages than disadvantages in the Dongting Lake area.

Mapping of moraine dammed glacial lakes and assessment of their areal changes in the central and eastern Himalayas using satellite data

The relatively rapid recession of glaciers in the Himalayas and formation of moraine dammed glacial lakes(MDGLs) in the recent past have increased the risk of glacier lake outburst floods(GLOF) in the countries of Nepal and Bhutan and in the mountainous territory of Sikkim in India. As a product of climate change and global warming, such a risk has not only raised the level of threats to the habitation and infrastructure of the region, but has also contributed to the worsening of the balance of the unique ecosystem that exists in this domain that sustains several of the highest mountain peaks of the world. This study attempts to present an up to date mapping of the MDGLs in the central and eastern Himalayan regions using remote sensing data, with an objective to analyse their surface area variations with time from 1990 through 2015, disaggregated over six episodes. The study also includes the evaluation for susceptibility of MDGLs to GLOF with the least criteria decision analysis(LCDA). Forty two major MDGLs, each having a lake surface area greater than 0.2 km2, that were identified in the Himalayan ranges of Nepal, Bhutan, and Sikkim, have been categorized according to their surface area expansion rates in space and time. The lakes have been identified as located within the elevation range of 3800 m and6800 m above mean sea level(a msl). With a total surface area of 37.9 km2, these MDGLs as a whole were observed to have expanded by an astonishing 43.6% in area over the 25 year period of this study. A factor is introduced to numerically sort the lakes in terms of their relative yearly expansion rates, based on their interpretation of their surface area extents from satellite imageries. Verification of predicted GLOF events in the past using this factor with the limited field data as reported in literature indicates that the present analysis may be considered a sufficiently reliable and rapid technique for assessing the potential bursting susceptibility of the MDGLs. The analysis also indicates that, as of now, there are eight MDGLs in the region which appear to be in highly vulnerable states and have high chances in causing potential GLOF events anytime in the recent future.

The spatial-temporal changes of the land use/cover in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade

The research on the land use/cover change is one of the frontiers and the hot spots in the global change research. Based on the Chinese resource and environment spatial-temporal database, and using the Landsat TM and ETM data of 1990 and 2000 respectively, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use/cover changes in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade. The result shows that during the last ten years there were three land-use types that had changed remarkably. The cultivated land decreased by 0.57% of the total cultivated land. The built-up land and water area expanded, with an increase of 8.97% and 0.43% respectively. The conversion between land use types mostly happened among these three land-use types, especially frequently between cultivated land and water area. The land-use change speed of land-use type is different. Three cities experienced the greatest degree of land-use change among all the administrative districts, which means that the land use in these cities changed much quickly. The following changed area was the west and south of the Dongting Lake area. The slowest changed area is the north and east area.

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010,China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the nttmber of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km2 during 1973-2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973-1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km2, while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km2 only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.

Characterizing regional precipitation-driven lake area change in Mongolia

Lake area is an important indicator for climate change and its relationship with climatic factors is critical for understanding the mechanisms that control lake level changes. In this study, lake area changes and their rela- tions to precipitation were investigated using multi-temporal Landsat Thermatic Mapper （TM） and Enhanced Thermatic Mapper plus （ETM＋） images collected from 10 different regions of Mongolia since the late 1980s. A lin- ear-regression analysis was applied to examine the relationship between precipitation and lake area change for each region and across different regions of Mongolia. The relationships were interpreted in terms of regional climate regime and hydromorphological characteristics. A total of 165 lakes with areas greater than 10 hm2 were identified from the Landsat images, which were aggregated for each region to estimate the regional lake area. Temporal lake area variability was larger in the Gobi regions, where small lakes are densely distributed. The regression analyses indicated that the regional patterns of precipitation-driven lake area changes varied considerably （R2=0.028-0.950）, depending on regional climate regime and hydromorphological characteristics. Generally, the lake area change in the hot-and-dry Gobi regions showed higher correlations with precipitation change. The precedent two-month pre- cipitation was the best determining factor of lake area change across Mongolia. Our results indicate the usefulness of regression analysis based on satellite-derived multi-temporal lake area data to identify regions where factors other than precipitation might play important roles in determining lake area change.

Evolution of a Late Pleistocene palaeolake in Dali Nor area of southeastern Inner Mongolia Plateau,China

Lithological,geochronological,granulometric,and scanning electron microscope(SEM)analyses of eight lacustrine outcrops indicate the existence of a large palaeolake in Dali Nor area during 149-24.6 ka(MIS5-3)and a small one in upstream of the Xilamulun River during 12.96-11.69 ka.The large palaeolake recorded its highest water level above 1300 m during the MIS3 and covered the whole Dali Nor basin and upstream of the Xilamulun River within an area of about 3000 km^2.However,the small palaeolake with a highest water level above 1200 m,covered an area of about 600 km^2.Besides the reconstruction of palaeolake areas,this study also looked into the evolutionary process of the palaeolake during the Late Pleistocene.Our data provide insights on the timing of appearance of the large palaeolakes and a better understanding of the mechanism responsible for variations in the environment conditions of dry lands in middle latitudes.

Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Surrounding Area of Qinghai Lake

[Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of climate changes in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.[Method] Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours from 5 representative meteorological stations in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake during 1961-2007,the annual,seasonal and decadal variation of meteorological factors were analyzed.[Result] In recent 47 years,temperature showed obvious increase trend in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake,and annual average temperature increased with the climatic tendency of ≥0.30 ℃/10 a,while annual average minimum temperature increased more significant than annual average temperature and annual average maximum temperature;annual mean precipitation decreased with the climatic tendency of-3.67 mm/10 a,and precipitation in spring and autumn reduced obviously,while precipitation in summer and winter increased slightly;annual sunshine hours also showed decrease trend with the climatic tendency of-1.79 h/10 a,while sunshine hours decreased most obviously in summer,and next came winter,while there was no obvious decrease in spring and autumn.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the effective prevention of meteorological disasters in the surrounding area of Qinghai Lake.

External Costs and Optimum Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer Based on the Balance of Economic and Ecological Benefits in the Paddy Field System of the Dongting Lake Area, China

The external costs and the optimum use of nitrogen fertilizer based on the balance of economic and ecological benefits was studied with the paddy field system of Dongting Lake area, one of the main food production regions in China. The environmental impact was economically evaluated using methods of the environmental impact economical evaluation. The optimum use of nitrogen fertilizer was calculated based on the exterior diseconomy theory and by using the production function model. Both ecological benefits and farmers＇ economic benefits were considered. It was calculated on the data from 2002 that the losses caused by inappropriate utilization of nitrogen fertilizer in the process of food production were fishery, 0.1 × 10^7 RMB yuan; water treatment, 1.02 × 10^8 RMB yuan; tour business, 0.11 ×10^8 RMB yuan, and habitation environment, 0.3 × 10^7 RMB yuan, totally equivalent to 0.41 RMB yuan kg^-1 N. The economically satisfactory and the ecological agronomic nitrogen fertilizer dose for current production was 138 and 137 kg ha^-1, respectively. The research showed that the actual nitrogen fertilizer application amount in the paddy field system of the Dongting Lake area already reached or exceeded the farmers＇ economic satisfaction and the ecological agronomic nitrogen fertilizer dose for current production. An environmental tax is suggested to impose on over-use of nitrogen fertilizer.

Study on the Resistance Indexes of Four Kinds of Desert Plants in Qinghai Lake Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study the resistance of four kinds of desert plants in Qinhai Lake area.[Method] By contrasting the resistance indexes of four kinds of plants which included Ephedra intermedia,Stellera chamaejasme,Achnatherum splendens and Xanthopappus subacaulis,the resistance of four kinds of plants in Qinghai Lake area was analyzed.The resistance indexes included the soluble protein,MDA,free Pro content and the activities of SOD,POD,CAT.Moreover,the resistance of four kinds of plants was evaluated comprehensively by using Fuzzy membership function method.[Result] Under the low-temperature and arid adversity in Qinghai Lake area,SOD activity presented as Stellera chamaejasme>Xanthopappus subacaulis>Ephedra intermedia>Achnatherum splendens,and CAT activity presented as Stellera chamaejasme>Xanthopappus subacaulis>Achnatherum splendens>Ephedra intermedia.Under the same high-salt environment,CAT activity of Stellera chamaejasme was eight times higher than that of Ephedra intermedia.It illustrated that the salt resistance of Stellera chamaejasme was stronger than that of Ephedra intermedia.The free Pro content showed as Xanthopappus subacaulis>Ephedra intermedia>Stellera chamaejasme>Achnatherum splendens.Under the same adversity,Pro content of Ephedra intermedia was 2.83 times of Stellera chamaejasme.It was because that MDA content in Stellera chamaejasme was the lowest,and the membranous peroxide harm was the smallest.It caused that Pro content (stress penetration material) was low.It also illustrated that the resistance of Stellera chamaejasme was stronger than that of Ephedra intermedia.The comprehensive evaluation of Fuzzy membership function showed that the resistance presented as Xanthopappus subacaulis>Stellera chamaejasme>Ephedra intermedia>Achnatherum splendens.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the breeding of drought-resistance new variety and the development of good germ plasm resource in Qinghai Lake area.

Climate-Driven Changes in Lake Areas for the Last Half Century in the Valley of Lakes, Govi Region, Southern Mongolia

This study presents the changes in lake areas in the Valley of Lakes, the Govi region, southern Mongolia. The recent changes in lake areas show decreases depending on vulnerability of lake basins and response of Govi landscape to the present climatic warming. During the recent 44 - 45 years (from 1970 to 2014 or 2015), modern lakes have encountered the present rapid increase in temperature, water evaporation and drying up that induced the reduction in lake areas in the Valley of Lakes. The finding of the reduction in lake areas is consistent with the trends on increasing in temperature since 1995 and fluctuating precipitation since 1975. Investigations with detailed chronology of lake sediment are needed from the lakes to review a more complete evolution of lake basins during the Late Quaternary paleoclimatic history in Mongolia and Central Asia.

Area, isolation, disturbance and age effects on species richness of summer waterbirds in post-mining subsidence lakes,Anhui, China

Background: The species–area relationship is one of the best documented patterns in community ecology.Factors influencing species–area relationship are still not well understood.Since the proposal of the equilibrium theory of island biogeography, many studies have tested the effects of area and isolation, estimating effects of disturbance and patch age were scarce and should also be important bearing.Methods: We investigated summer waterbird species richness in 38 post?mining subsidence lakes in Huainan and Fuyang, Anhui, China, May 25–June 12, 2016.We examined the effects of lake area, isolation(distance to natural water bodies), aquaculture disturbance, lake age and lake state(still sinking or not sinking) on summer waterbird species richness with multivariable linear regression method and model selection method.Results: Our results from multivariable linear regression and model selection were consistent, which showed that species richness was positively related with lake area and negatively related with isolation.Aquaculture disturbance negatively influenced species richness.Highest species richness were found in lakes under intermediate intensity of aquaculture activities with area less than 100 ha and lakes under low intensity of aquaculture activities with area greater than 100 ha.Lake age and lake state had no significant effects on species richness.Conclusions: Species richness was most related with lake area, aquaculture disturbance, and isolation, with lake area had a positive effect, while aquaculture activities and isolation had a negative effect.What's more, aquaculture activi?ties significantly changed the slope of species–area relationship and might impede us finding a relationship between species richness and lake age.

A multi-scale 3-D crust velocity model in the Hefei-Chao Lake area around the southern segment of Tanlu Fault Zone

Regional high-precision velocity models of the crust are an important foundation for examining seismic activity,seismogenic environments,and disaster distribution characteristics.The Hefei-Chao Lake area contains the main geological units of Hefei Basin,with thick sediments and the Chao Lake depression.Several major concealed faults of the southern NNE-trending Tanlu Fault Zone cross this area.To further explore the underground distribution characteristics of the faults and their tectonic evolutionary relationship with adjacent tectonic units,this study used ambient noise data recorded by a seismic array deployed in Hefei City and Chao Lake,constructing a 3-D velocity model at the depth of 1–8 km.Then a multi-scale high-resolution 3-D velocity model of this area was constructed by this new upper crustal velocity model with the previous middle and lower crustal model.The new model reveals that a high-velocity belt is highly consistent with the strike of the Tanlu Fault Zone,and a low-velocity sedimentary characteristic is consistent with the Hefei Basin and Chao Lake depression.The distribution morphology of high and low velocity bodies shows that the sedimentary pattern of Hefei-Chao Lake area is closely related to the tectonic evolution of the Tanlu Fault Zone since the Mesozoic.This study also identifies multiple low-velocity anomalies in the southeastern Hefei City.We speculate that strong ground motion during the 2009 Feidong earthquake(magnitude of 3.5)was related to amplification by the thick sediments in the Hefei Basin.We also discuss further applications of multi-scale high-resolution models of the shallow layer to strong ground motion simulations in cities and for earthquake disaster assessments.

FLOOD SIMULATION IN DONGTING LAKE DRAINAGE AREA AND ITS FLOOD CONTROL

On the basis of water-balance equation in Dongting Lake and Xiang Zi Yuan-Li River drainage areas, a possib1e flood height relating to the rainfall precipitation in these areas has been inferred. According to the flood simulation, some synthetic maintenance strategies to prevent future catastrophic f1oods in Dongting Lake drainage area have been also presented.

Desertification evolution prediction for lake area of Minqin oasis based on integration of GIS and cellular automata

The Minqin oasis is surrounded on three sides by the Tengger Desert and the Badanjilin Desert, and it prevents these two deserts from converging. However, in recent years it has become the worst ecological environment in the Lake area due to deficient water resources, continual declines in the groundwater level and quality （increasing mineralization and salination）, which are causing in- creasing desertification. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper （TM） remote images from 1992, 1998, 2002, and 2006 of the Lake area of the Minqin oasis are interpreted to analyze the desertification evolution. A combination of an ArcObjects module and a cellular automata model is used to build a model simulating the desertification dynamics; the forecasting accuracy of this model is shown to reach up to 90%. The desertification situation in 2012 is forecasted by this model, and the results showed that, from 2006 to 2012, the green land area will be reduced by 999.92 hm2 （l.59 percent of the total oasis area）, the desertification land area will be reduced by 3,000.68 hrn2 （4.78 percent of the total oasis area）, and sand land area will increase by 4,000.6 hm2 （6.37 per- cent of the total oasis area）. The sand land is predicted to become more widespread, and more than 18% sand land will be distrib- uted in the center of green land in the Lake area. In other words, more and more abandoned green land （mined farm land） will be transformed into sand land, and this will intensify the desertification.