SDA (Structural Decomposition Analysis) model was applied to analyze the driving factors of embodied carbon and SO_(2) emissions transferred in Shanxi during 2007-2012 based on the input-output model from the perspect...SDA (Structural Decomposition Analysis) model was applied to analyze the driving factors of embodied carbon and SO_(2) emissions transferred in Shanxi during 2007-2012 based on the input-output model from the perspectives of region and industry.The results showed that the change of embodied carbon emissions and embodied SO_(2) emissions of Shanxi and other regions were hindered by the carbon (sulfur) emissions strength effect,but promoted by the intermediate (final) demand scale effect,the intermediate (final) structure effect and the input-output structure effect.The carbon emissions strength effect had a significant contribution to reducing the embodied carbon emissions transferred from industries in Shanxi to other regions.The intermediate (final) demand scale effect was the driving factor to increase the embodied carbon emissions transferred from industries in Shanxi to other regions.The sulfur emissions strength effect was the only factor that reduced the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from Shanxi to other industries.The change of embodied carbon emissions from industries in other regions to Shanxi was hindered by the carbon emissions strength effect,but the input-output structure effect and final demand scale effect both increased the embodied carbon emissions from industries in other regions to Shanxi.The change of the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from industries in other regions to Shanxi was inhibited by the sulfur emissions strength effect,but the input-output structure effect,the intermediate demand structure effect and the final demand scale effect were both the driving force effect of increasing the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from industries in other regions to Shanxi.The corresponding suggestions and measures were put forward.展开更多
Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style=&quo...Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.展开更多
In this paper,the quadratic polynomial and cubic polynomial functions were applied to analyze the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The improved STIRPAT model was also applied to as...In this paper,the quadratic polynomial and cubic polynomial functions were applied to analyze the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The improved STIRPAT model was also applied to assess the driving factors and reduction paths for carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The results lead to three main conclusions.Firstly,carbon emissions and economic growth in Hebei Province are in a positive correlation stage which has not formed the EKC curve,and the“decoupling”stage between carbon emissions and economic growth has not arrived yet.Secondly,the industrial structure,per capita GDP,fixed assets investment,population size and urbanization rate account for the highest proportion of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions can be reduced greatly by changing the energy structure,in which the proportion of coal is decreased year by year.Environmental regulation also has an obvious effect on the reduction of carbon emissions.Thirdly,it is suggested that the reduction of carbon emissions in Hebei Province should focus on four tasks:controlling the development of heavy industry,avoiding overcapacity,optimizing the industrial structure and accelerating the development of clean energy.展开更多
As the world’s population has tripled(3x)since 1950,with another 50%increase expected by 2100,global annual carbon dioxide emissions growth rate has quadrupled(4x)since 1950 and global energy demand has quintupled(5x...As the world’s population has tripled(3x)since 1950,with another 50%increase expected by 2100,global annual carbon dioxide emissions growth rate has quadrupled(4x)since 1950 and global energy demand has quintupled(5x),all in the same time period.This discontinuous combination can be called a“3-4-5 Triad”and the sudden acceleration in all three arenas is too stressful on the environment and the damaging effects will be felt globally for centuries to come unless drastic action is taken.More importantly,the energy demand at 5x is outstripping the other two.This clearly means that as the population explodes at 3x,the emerging middle class wants almost twice as much as their usual share as fossil-fueled generators spread around the globe and modern conveniences become more and more desirable.However,such energy demand at 5x is an artificial human need that is predicted by RMI.org to result in four to five billion new window-mounted air conditioners by 2050 that will add even more to the global warming caused by increasing atmospheric carbon.By an examination of paleoclimatology for the past 420,000 years,it is demonstrable that reducing the concentration of this single most prolific heat-trapping gas by geoengineering back to pre-industrial levels of less than 300 ppm can actually give humankind a collective control over the world’s rapidly rising average global temperature and once more,a temperate climate to live in.展开更多
为探究中国农业碳排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素,基于2000—2021年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市,不包括香港地区、澳门地区和台湾地区,下同)统计年鉴数据,考察水利用、土地利用和能源消耗的碳排放,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IP...为探究中国农业碳排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素,基于2000—2021年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市,不包括香港地区、澳门地区和台湾地区,下同)统计年鉴数据,考察水利用、土地利用和能源消耗的碳排放,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳排放因子建立2000—2021年水、土地和能源3个子系统相关变量,计算各省(自治区、直辖市)农业年碳排放总量,结合莫兰指数对农业碳排放时空演变趋势及空间关联特征进行分析,并运用对数均值迪氏分解法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,简称LMDI)探析农业碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:1)从时序变化看,农业碳排放量整体呈倒“V”型变化趋势。2)从农业碳排放来源看,农业源碳排放中源于化肥的碳排放占比最高。3)从农业碳排放空间差异看,碳排放较大的省份(自治区、直辖市)主要集中在黄淮海区域以及中部平原等水土资源条件丰富且优质的地区,西部地区与部分直辖市(北京、上海、天津)农业碳排放量较少,高农业碳排放地区存在向北蔓延的趋势。4)农业碳排放在空间上具有集聚效应,且随着时间推移,集聚效应的显著性有所下降,其中河南、安徽、山东等省份(自治区、直辖市)具有显著的“高-高集聚”效应,北京、天津、青海等省份(自治区、直辖市)具有显著的“低-低集聚”效应。5)农业水资源经济产出因素和农业劳动力密集度因素为正向驱动因素,农业水资源经济产出因素为中国农业碳排放增加的最主要因素;农业生产效率因素、劳动力规模因素和农业水土匹配度因素为碳排放负向驱动因素,其中农业生产效率因素的碳减排贡献率最高,为中国农业碳排放减少的最主要驱动因素。基于以上结果,本文针对中国农业碳减排提出以下建议:政府应加大对低碳农业的投入,支持新型肥料和新能源农机的研发,提高水土资源利用效率。同时,要利用农业碳排放的集聚效应,推动农业集中发展和区域间合作,培养新型农业人才。展开更多
文摘SDA (Structural Decomposition Analysis) model was applied to analyze the driving factors of embodied carbon and SO_(2) emissions transferred in Shanxi during 2007-2012 based on the input-output model from the perspectives of region and industry.The results showed that the change of embodied carbon emissions and embodied SO_(2) emissions of Shanxi and other regions were hindered by the carbon (sulfur) emissions strength effect,but promoted by the intermediate (final) demand scale effect,the intermediate (final) structure effect and the input-output structure effect.The carbon emissions strength effect had a significant contribution to reducing the embodied carbon emissions transferred from industries in Shanxi to other regions.The intermediate (final) demand scale effect was the driving factor to increase the embodied carbon emissions transferred from industries in Shanxi to other regions.The sulfur emissions strength effect was the only factor that reduced the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from Shanxi to other industries.The change of embodied carbon emissions from industries in other regions to Shanxi was hindered by the carbon emissions strength effect,but the input-output structure effect and final demand scale effect both increased the embodied carbon emissions from industries in other regions to Shanxi.The change of the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from industries in other regions to Shanxi was inhibited by the sulfur emissions strength effect,but the input-output structure effect,the intermediate demand structure effect and the final demand scale effect were both the driving force effect of increasing the embodied SO_(2) emissions transferred from industries in other regions to Shanxi.The corresponding suggestions and measures were put forward.
文摘Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(71991481,71991484,41971163)The Humanities and Social Science Research Project of Hebei Education Department(SQ2021081)The National key research and development program(2016YFA0602800)。
文摘In this paper,the quadratic polynomial and cubic polynomial functions were applied to analyze the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)of carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The improved STIRPAT model was also applied to assess the driving factors and reduction paths for carbon emissions in Hebei Province.The results lead to three main conclusions.Firstly,carbon emissions and economic growth in Hebei Province are in a positive correlation stage which has not formed the EKC curve,and the“decoupling”stage between carbon emissions and economic growth has not arrived yet.Secondly,the industrial structure,per capita GDP,fixed assets investment,population size and urbanization rate account for the highest proportion of carbon emissions.Carbon emissions can be reduced greatly by changing the energy structure,in which the proportion of coal is decreased year by year.Environmental regulation also has an obvious effect on the reduction of carbon emissions.Thirdly,it is suggested that the reduction of carbon emissions in Hebei Province should focus on four tasks:controlling the development of heavy industry,avoiding overcapacity,optimizing the industrial structure and accelerating the development of clean energy.
文摘As the world’s population has tripled(3x)since 1950,with another 50%increase expected by 2100,global annual carbon dioxide emissions growth rate has quadrupled(4x)since 1950 and global energy demand has quintupled(5x),all in the same time period.This discontinuous combination can be called a“3-4-5 Triad”and the sudden acceleration in all three arenas is too stressful on the environment and the damaging effects will be felt globally for centuries to come unless drastic action is taken.More importantly,the energy demand at 5x is outstripping the other two.This clearly means that as the population explodes at 3x,the emerging middle class wants almost twice as much as their usual share as fossil-fueled generators spread around the globe and modern conveniences become more and more desirable.However,such energy demand at 5x is an artificial human need that is predicted by RMI.org to result in four to five billion new window-mounted air conditioners by 2050 that will add even more to the global warming caused by increasing atmospheric carbon.By an examination of paleoclimatology for the past 420,000 years,it is demonstrable that reducing the concentration of this single most prolific heat-trapping gas by geoengineering back to pre-industrial levels of less than 300 ppm can actually give humankind a collective control over the world’s rapidly rising average global temperature and once more,a temperate climate to live in.
文摘为探究中国农业碳排放的时空分布特征及驱动因素,基于2000—2021年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市,不包括香港地区、澳门地区和台湾地区,下同)统计年鉴数据,考察水利用、土地利用和能源消耗的碳排放,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)碳排放因子建立2000—2021年水、土地和能源3个子系统相关变量,计算各省(自治区、直辖市)农业年碳排放总量,结合莫兰指数对农业碳排放时空演变趋势及空间关联特征进行分析,并运用对数均值迪氏分解法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,简称LMDI)探析农业碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:1)从时序变化看,农业碳排放量整体呈倒“V”型变化趋势。2)从农业碳排放来源看,农业源碳排放中源于化肥的碳排放占比最高。3)从农业碳排放空间差异看,碳排放较大的省份(自治区、直辖市)主要集中在黄淮海区域以及中部平原等水土资源条件丰富且优质的地区,西部地区与部分直辖市(北京、上海、天津)农业碳排放量较少,高农业碳排放地区存在向北蔓延的趋势。4)农业碳排放在空间上具有集聚效应,且随着时间推移,集聚效应的显著性有所下降,其中河南、安徽、山东等省份(自治区、直辖市)具有显著的“高-高集聚”效应,北京、天津、青海等省份(自治区、直辖市)具有显著的“低-低集聚”效应。5)农业水资源经济产出因素和农业劳动力密集度因素为正向驱动因素,农业水资源经济产出因素为中国农业碳排放增加的最主要因素;农业生产效率因素、劳动力规模因素和农业水土匹配度因素为碳排放负向驱动因素,其中农业生产效率因素的碳减排贡献率最高,为中国农业碳排放减少的最主要驱动因素。基于以上结果,本文针对中国农业碳减排提出以下建议:政府应加大对低碳农业的投入,支持新型肥料和新能源农机的研发,提高水土资源利用效率。同时,要利用农业碳排放的集聚效应,推动农业集中发展和区域间合作,培养新型农业人才。