Changes in Agricultural System as Farmers Adapt to Economic-Social and Climatic Changes in the Min Upriver Rural Areas in Western Sichuan,Southwestern China

Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.

Population growth，economic growth，technology changes in relation to environmental changes──A theoretical modelling analysis of environmental changes

This paper mainly deals with the impact of three major factors , namely population growth,economic growth and technology changes, on the changes of environmental quality. It presents a curve ofenvironmental changes in relation to demographic transition and process of industrialization. It concludesthat a major way of improving environmental quality is to intensify pollution decreasing technical factorsand that control of population growth will also reduce the pressure on the environment.

Impacts of Climate Change on Economic Performance of Tilapia Pond Operations in Minalin, Pampanga: A Case of Intensive Large-Scale Pond Culture

Pampanga is the top tilapia-producing province in Philippines. One of its municipalities, Minalin, is considered as one of its major centers of production. This study aims to determine the impacts of climate change hazards on the economic performance of tilapia-intensive pond culture in Minalin, Pampanga considering the threats to the industry, livelihoods, and food security. Results revealed that the economic performance of tilapia pond operations using semi-intensive large-scale culture was affected by climate change, as reflected in the reduction of yield among tilapia pond operators. This makes intensive tilapia pond farming in Minalin still a viable venture but will now require more than a year to pay for investment (variable and fixed) costs if under climate change risks. The study recommends strengthening capacity building related to climate-smart tilapia farming technologies for pond operators and to implement appropriate technologies to address climate change risks.

ANALYSIS ON LAND-USE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FACTORS IN H AINAN ISLAND DURING 50YEARS FROM 1950TO 1999

Land-use change is an important part of global change research(IGBP,1990-1992).But the majority of researches focus on the natural dr iving force of land use change.In thi s paper,the authors studied the rela tionship be-tween socio-economic driving facto rs and land-use change with time series in Hainan Island.Based on the stud y for the evolution of administrative system and policies in Hainan Island and the comprehensive analysis on the socia l economy da-ta and changes of social policies,th e socio-economic policies,human activities and land use of Hainan can be divided into three periods with different ch aracters:period from1950to 1978ch aracterized by the planning economi c system,peri-od from 1978to 1988characterized by the transfer of economic system and a doption of open policy,new stage fro m 1988to 1998with high growing speed.On th e other hand the authors describe the character of the periods and land-use change process affected by socio-economic factors.This paper provides an important method for evaluating the development and changes of Hainan social economy dur ing the 50years from 1950to 1999and f orecasting the development of Hainan so-cial economy in future.

Changes in paddy cropping system enhanced economic profit and ecological sustainability in central China

In China,the traditional early and late season double rice(DR)system is declining accompanied by the fast increase of two newly developed cropping systems:ratoon rice(RR)and rice-crawfish(RC).Three methodologies:economic analysis,emergy evaluation and life cycle assessment(LCA)were employed to evaluate the economics and sustainability of this paddy cropping system change.Economic analysis indicated that the income and profit of the RC system were far larger than those of RR and DR.The income to costs ratio of RR and RC increased by 25.5 and 122.7%compared with that of DR,respectively.RC had the highest emergy input thanks to increasing irrigation water,electricity,juvenile crawfish and forage input while RR showed a lower total emergy and nonrenewable emergy input,such as irrigation water,electricity,fertilizers and pesticides than DR.The environmental loading ratios decreased by 16.7-50.4%when cropping system changed from DR to RR or from DR to RC while the emergy sustainability indexes increased by 22.6-112.9%.The life cycle assessment indicated lower potential environmental impacts of RR and RC,whose total environmental impact indexes were 35.0-61.0%lower than that of DR.Grain yield of RR was comparable with that of DR in spite of less financial and emergy input of RR,but RC had a much lower grain yield(a 53.6%reduction compared to DR).These results suggested that RR is a suitable cropping system to achieve the food security,economic and environmental goals.

Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem integrity.This study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin,China,to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–2020.Linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements,while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation points.The contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods,i.e.,the rainfall-runoff relationship method,slope variation method,and variable infiltration capacity(Budyko)hypothesis method.Then,the availability and stability of the three methods were compared.The results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020,with an abrupt change in 1985.For attribution analysis,the runoff series could be divided into two phases,i.e.,1961–1985(baseline period)and 1986–2020(changing period);and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods,while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent results.Different factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.Moreover,human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes,accounting for 53.0%–82.0%;and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%,making it the secondary factor,in which precipitation was the most representative climate factor.These results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin.

Global Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Cycles,Vector Population and Rising Challenges of Communicable Diseases:A Review

This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable diseases shortly.

Is economic fitness helpful in achieving environmental sustainability in BRICS economies?A risk exposure perspective

A country’s ability to create complex goods and diversify its lines of products is essential for addressing all types of vulnerabilities.Quantifying a country’s vulnerability to extreme climatic events,such as droughts,superstorms,and other natural disasters,and its capacity for successful adaption,is an essential global need that has been ignored.This study examines the role of economic fitness(EF)in addressing climate change risk ex‐posure in BRICS countries in the context of the environmental Kuznets curve using panel data from 1995 to 2015.Panel threshold methodology is employed to ascertain the nonlinear relationship between EF and climate change risk exposure(i.e.,Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Country Index(ND-GAIN)).In addition,empirical associations were estimated using panel-corrected standard errors,Driscoll-Kraay standard errors,and feasible generalized least squares estimation techniques.These findings demonstrated an inverted N shaped link between EF and ND-GAIN.Moreover,even after controlling for significant ND-GAIN influencing variables such as gross domestic product per capita,financial development,and urbanization,our robustness checks revealed significant and consistent findings.

Habitable Land Will Soon Become the World’s Scarcest Resource: Why Appalachia Should Choose Climate Change Havens over Millionaire Estates and Golf Courses

This research advocates for the construction of Climate Change Haven Communities across the Appalachian Region. The proposed development plan can be extended to the northern tier states across the US and also to the northern and mountainous regions of Europe and Asia. We present an analogy to the earlier climate change period of the Last Glacial Maximum/“Ice Age” in which these same northern regions of the planet were covered in ice sheets making them uninhabitable for most humans and many plant and animal species. In some significant ways, the Ice Age scenario can be a reverse-model for our current climate crisis. We also advocate strongly for the prevention of upscale real estate development projects in these same regions of the globe, as these will foreclose the possibility of safely sheltering the millions of persons who will be displaced by climate change over the next 5 to 10 years.

Study on Factors Influencing Urban-rural Dual Economic Structure of Chongqing Based on the State Space Variable Parameter Method

Firstly,this paper reviews and analyzes historic background of urban-rural integration of Chongqing,and the evolution and trend of urban and rural dual economic structure.On the basis of previous researches,it selects factors and variables influencing urban and rural dual economic structure,and establishes an econometric model.By state space Kalman filtering method,it analyzes dynamic influence of factors upon urban-rural dual economic intensity.According to empirical conclusion,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for promoting integrated urban and rural economic development of Chongqing.

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990’s, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.

Dairy Farming Systems’ Adaptation to Climate Change

The measure of climate change in dairy farms can be achieved by using the emissions of methane by the ruminants converted in CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq). In order to know the impact of future quotes of methane in the Azorean dairy milk farms, a decision model is built to the Azorean intensive grazing system of dairy farms. Some scenarios of methane levels reductions from 10 to 75% are considered and their impact is evaluated upon dairy farms income, level of CO2-eq emissions and intensity level of grazing system. The results have shown that any reduction of the methane level always implies a consequent decrease in income. If the CO2-eq has to be limited than there is the need to find alternative income activities for farmers in order to preserve economic sustainability.

Change of ecosystem service value in Menglian county with large-area economic gardens

From the point of spatio-temporal changes of ecological system type,function and value,in Menglian county,land using/cover data was based on three Landsat TM images(respectively obtained in2000,2005,2010 and 2015) which were interpreted as basic information sources by using RS and GIS technology and then revising ecosystem service value per unit area in Menglian county.This paper has researched on the changes of ecosystem service value of economic garden for large area planting as well as evaluated ecosystem service value scientifically in Menglian county combined with the sensitivity analysis.The Results showed that:(1) In Menglian county,from 2000 to 2015,land use pattern manifested as the transformation from large areas of cultivated land,forest land and shrub to the economic landscape,the economic landscape is increased by 24458.31 hm^2,however,farm land,wood land and shrub are reduced by 24865.74 hm2 in total;(2) Changes of ecosystem service value is closely related to economic landscape development in Menglian county.The situation of ecosystem service value shows the changing trend from improvement to severity in 2000-2015.ESV is increased by 96.39 million yuan from 2000 to2005,whose annual growth rate is about 0.56%·a^(-1).But in the year of 2005 to 2015,ESV is reduced by120.23 million yuan and annual reduced rate is about 0.34%·a^(-1);(3) In Menglian county,the main ecological system is the woodland ecological system,the primary ecosystem service functions are biodiversity protection,gas regulation,soil formation and retention,climate regulation and water supply,the ecological benefit were decreased in 2000-2015;(4) From the aspect of space distribution,ecosystem service value in Menglian county is relatively high in the central area and relatively not high in the western and eastern area.ESV(yuan·hm`(-2)) was changed obvious,Gongxin town trended to decline,other towns increased first the then reduced.The temporal and spatial variation of ecosystem service value in Menglian county is affected by natural and human factors.The key to the development of economic landscape is rational land use according to the practical situation,which can create economic value and also keep its ecological value.

The Enlightenment of German “Dual System” to China's Vocational Education Reform

This article analyzes the enlightenment of studying the German"dual system"under the new situation for our country's promotion of enterprises to participate in vocational education and elaborates on the nature of German"dual system"of skills training,the core role of enterprises and the motivation of economic subsidies.Based on expounding the current situation of our vocational education,this article focuses on the analysis of key issues affecting the quality of vocational education in our country and the reasons why Chinese enterprises lack motivation to participate in vocational education.Finally,based on the enlightenment of Germany's"dual system",it is pointed out that our country's vocational education reform should adopt effective measures of economic subsidies to strengthen the motivation of enterprises to participate in vocational education.

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

The Chinese Urban-rural Dual Economic Structure Model and Analysis

Based on the characteristics of urban-rural dual economic structure in China,we build a dynamic endogenous urban-rural dual economic model closely linked to China's reality,and carry out mathematical economics analysis of optimized conditions for urban and rural sectors. The main results show that:(i) The labor growth rate of urban-rural sectors must be greater than the time discount rate,or else there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(ii) The accumulation rate of physical capital and human capital of urban-rural sectors,and the rate of technological progress,need to be greater than the corresponding depreciation rate plus the time discount rate,otherwise there would be a vicious cycle of diminishing returns in the sectors;(iii) The low accumulation rate in the rural sector,and the occurrence of labor outflow,human capital loss and lack of investment,will expand income gap between urban and rural areas,which is a reason for solidification of urban-rural dual economic structure.

Economic Structure Transformation and Land Use Change of the Changjiang River Basin

Land, as a key factor of production, is an appropriate indicator of national and regional economic structure transformation. Land use in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River Basin （CRB） since the 1950s has experienced these changes. Industrialization has been the most powerful force of the change in the regional development of the CRB. Virtually all regional resources were put into this effort to modernize the industrial production and urban construction systems of the CRB whose industrialization and urbanization has been a success story, with impressive structural change in both production and land use. These changes are evident ih modem urban areas, but even more in traditionally rural areas. The regression analysis of regional development in the CRB over an extended period shows that the dominant factor in regional land use change is widespread industrialization in rural areas rather than the expansion of urban area. Thus, urbanization has had a limited influence on land use change in the CRB. A major task in realizing more sustainable land use in the future development of CRB is to relocate industrial activities from rural to urban areas.

Markers for Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Social, Biological and Ecological Systems: A Review

Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.

Discount rate and research progress in economic analysis on climate change

This paper has organized and summarized the economic analysis on climate change from five angles,namely,connotation of discount rate,identification of and dispute about discount rate,discounting way,impact of the discount rate,and the integrated evaluation model of climate change impact and the discount evaluation.As the climate change economic analysis shows,there is a major dispute about discount rate between the market school and the ethic school.Rate of discount largely relates to the present value of potential loss attributable to climate change,and then influences the selection of policies for adapting and slowing down climate change.In the past,the constant index discount was adopted as the main way.But with the full understanding of discount rate,the uncertainty of loss attributable to climate change has been considered in the discount.

Economic Implications of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change： An Analysis Using the AIM/CGE [Global] Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.