长三角城市群经济韧性测度与分析——基于Shift-Share的经济韧性分解

以长三角城市群27个城市为研究对象,测度2008—2010年抵抗期和2010—2019年恢复期城市群经济韧性水平,并进一步运用Shift-Share分解方法探索长三角城市群经济韧性内在影响机制。研究显示:抵抗期和恢复期中长三角城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.309和0.301,均强于全国层面经济韧性水平;Shift-Share分解后发现竞争力分量对各城市经济韧性水平提升起到决定性作用,抵抗期阶段主要由第二、三产业共同作用影响经济韧性水平;恢复期阶段则以第二产业竞争力为主导力量,同时以第三产业竞争力作为辅助力量。通过实证探究长三角城市群经济一体化发展的规律和特点,为增强中国经济韧性提出相关建议,助力中国经济高质量发展。

Pairwise Shared Genealogical Ancestry in Structured Populations

Simulation was used to investigate the effects of population structure and migration on metrics of pairwise shared ancestry. Random and hierarchical structures, or migration geometries, were examined. Compared to panmictic populations, progress to all qualitative metrics of pairwise ancestry is delayed in structured populations. However, unless migration is very low, the time required is generally less than triple and often less than twice that required in a panmictic population of the same total size. Population structure also increases, to a similar degree, the time required for a population-wide most recent common ancestor (MRCA). As a result, the relationships between various qualitative metrics of pairwise shared ancestry and MRCA time are relatively unaffected by population structure. For example, the mean time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) with global sampling of pairs is 40% - 50% of the MRCA time for almost all simulated structures and migration levels. Quantitative pairwise genealogical overlap is strongly affected by population structure. With global sampling, pairwise quantitative overlap never approaches 1.0, as it does in panmictic populations;and instead eventually becomes stationary at much lower values. Possible implications of the present results for human pairwise shared ancestry are discussed. For globally sampled pairs, the longest time to most recent shared ancestor (MRSA) for humans is suggested to be approximately 2100 years before the present. If generation time is 30 years, then all humans are 69th, or closer, cousins. For people with recent European ancestry, the MRSA time may be only half as long, about 1000 years.

Why Does China＇s Labor Income Share Tend to Decline？- From the Perspective of Population Age Structure Change

Using a theoretical model, this article concludes that age structures influence people＇s propensity to save and thereby influence their capital intensity. In the context that capital and labor are in a substitutional relation, increased capital intensity may lead to a drop of labor income share. We perform empirical research with provincial-level data from 1990 to 2007 and have proved that the rising of the old dependency ratio and the decrease of the children dependency rate both contribute to the fall of labor income share. This assumption still holds true after the authors control the influences of other potential factors that may influence labor income share

基于改进Theil指数和Shift-Share模型的2012—2021年中国产业偏离分析

文章首先通过对现有文献的梳理和分析,发现针对产业偏离的测算,传统的产业偏离度E系数、Theil指数及Shift-Share模型均存在一定的缺陷,E系数和Theil指数的缺陷主要体现在计算原理方面,而Shift-Share模型的缺陷主要表现在参照系选择的合理性和数据采集的可行性方面。然后,基于现有模型的基本原理,提出了更为合理和更具可操作性的产业偏离测算方法,再采用实证研究的方法,根据2012—2021年的数据,对中国的产业偏离情况进行具体分析,得出尽管中国存在产业偏离,但产业偏离度在逐渐减小。最后,基于修正模型的计算结果,并结合当前的国际国内环境,提出如下政策建议:1)第一产业要依靠创新和科技引领,促进农村劳动力在城乡间有序转移,实现农业生产的规模化和现代化;2)第二产业要加快产业的升级换代,建立和保持独立、自主、完整的工业体系,加大在基础研究方面的投入,尽早突破美西方的技术封锁;3)第三产业的发展重点应该在金融和科教两个方面,要进一步提升香港地区、上海和北京等城市的世界金融中心地位,依靠金融创新来规避现行国际金融体系的不利约束和影响,同时要将科教兴国战略落到实处,努力探索适合中国国情的从小学到大学各阶段的教育模式。

Effects of Commodity Trade Structure Variations on Labor' s Share of Income in China——An Empirical Study Based on Data of Production Industry Sectors

Proceeding from trade structure variations,this paper provides a new perspective on the study of the share of labor income in China.China's commodity trade structure has experienced a step change in recent years.According to theoretical analysis,trade exerts not only a direct effect on the share of labor income through international division of labor and specialization but also an indirect effect through factor intensity variations and technology progress bias.Empirical study discovered that export has a significant negative effect on the share of China's labor income while import has a positive effect.Import and export have different levels and directions of effect on sectors with different factor intensity.

Industrial Structure and Competitive Strength of 31 Provincial Districts——A GIS-based Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

By using the dynamic shift-share analysis, the industrial structure and competitive strength of 31 provincial districts except Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are studied by taking the GDP of the three industries as the research entrance and the whole nation as the reference district. The industrial structure and competitive strength of each provincial district is measured. Through the analysis of pertinence, the correlation degree of industrial structure and industrial competitive strength to economic growth is analyzed. The results show that the industrial competitive strength is closely related to the economic growth of the 31 provincial districts, but the contribution made by the industrial structure to economic growth is insufficient and the effect of industrial structure does not match with that of industrial competitive strength. According to industrial competitiveness and industrial structure effect, 31 provincial districts of the whole nation are divided into 4 types and the relevant countermeasures of the four types are put forward.

Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Dingxi City Based on Shift-Share Method and Location Quotient Analysis

According to the statistical data in the years 2004-2008, both Shift-Share Analysis and Location Quotient Analysis are used to compare the economic development status of counties (districts) in Dingxi City in the years 2004 and 2008. Advantages and disadvantages of industrial structure and competitiveness are analyzed, as well as the impacts of existing industrial structure on economic growth. Development direction and development focus of primary, secondary and tertiary industries are found out. Countermeasures for accelerating the economic development of counties (districts) in Dingxi City are put forward, such as increasing the inputs in characteristic agriculture, promoting the development of primary industry, speeding up the construction of large and medium industrial enterprises, enhancing the development of secondary industry, strengthening comprehensive environmental improvement in tourist area, and actively developing tertiary industry.

An Efficient and Secure Multi-Secret Sharing Scheme with General Access Structures

A multiple secret sharing scheme can share a group of secrets in each sharing session, which is very useful especially in sharing large secrets. However, most of the existing multiple secret sharing schemes are （t, n） threshold schemes, so they are fit for only threshold applications and unfit for the applications of general access structures. Due to the fact that a （t, n） threshold scheme could only handle a small fraction of the secret sharing idea, a novel multi-secret sharing scheme is proposed, which is designed based on general access structures. The security of this scheme is the same as that of Shamir＇s threshold secret sharing scheme. Compared with the existing multiple secret sharing schemes, the proposed scheme can provide greater capabilities for many applications because it is able to deal with applications of general access structures.

Empirical Study on Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Regional Economic Growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

Based on the data of gross domestic product(GDP),industrial added value and the proportion of industrial employees from 2000 to 2008,this paper studies the effect of industrial structure change on the regional economic growth of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region in China using the shift-share method.The results show that:1) In the 21st century,the industrial output of three industries,namely,primary,secondary,and tertiary,and the GDP grew rapidly in the study period.The tertiary industry grew the fastest;it had the largest contribution to the GDP and mean-while had become the most competitive industry in the metropolitan region.2) The development of cities within the region was not balanced.Firstly,compared with Tianjin,Beijing,as one of the two core cities,was more rational in the industrial structure.Secondly,the surrounding eight cities,which are Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,Langfang,Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,and Chengde,were all uncompetitive than the two core cities.3) There was a great industrial gradient in the region(especially between the two core cities and the cities of Tangshan,Baoding,Zhangjia-kou,Chengde,Cangzhou,and Langfang).As a result,it is foreseeable that the industry transfer in the Bei-jing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region will be one of the trends in regional development,and the industry transfer is inevitably to promote the regional integration.

Research on Web-Based Product Structure and Configuration Management

An enhanced system architecture of Web-based product structure and configuration management system along with its, functions are is presented. The key techniques, such as construction of object models of product structure and product configuration, hybrid approach method in product configuration management, sharing and integration of heterogeneous product data, integration with other sub-systems, are discussed too. A prototype system is developed by J2EE technology.

Game analysis of control right of state-owned shares under the background of the mixed ownership

Since the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the concept of the mixed ownership economy has received extensive attention from all sectors of society, which has effect on a coming new round of reformation on enterprise property. However, in order to take control of the state-owned shares in the end making the state ownership economy become the principal position and to enlarge the scale of state-owned shares, which guides the common development with the non-public sectors of the economy, how to determine the proportion of state-owned shares? Under the background of the mixed ownership reformation, the article explains the mixed ownership by explaining how to enlarge the state-owned assets controlling scale and how to improve the stateowned company 'economic effi ciency and how to protect the interests of small shareholders. The final conclusion is that the SASAC should use the thinking of relative holdings, instead of the absolute control thinking, and should make use of the games among the large shareholders and the pyramidal ownership structure to make the pattern of ownership diversify.

Artificial Intelligence,Structural Change and Labor Income Share

Artificial intelligence(AI)is a strategic technology that leads a new round of technological revolution and structural transformation.This paper studies the effects of AI on structural change and factor income shares.As a general purpose technology and new infrastructure,AI may substitute either labor or capital and its application has differential prospects across sectors.With a multi-sector general dynamic equilibrium model,we find that AI services or AI-specific technologies will reallocate factors between sectors.The direction of the reallocation depends on sectoral differences in the output elasticity of AI and in the elasticity of substitution between AI and traditional modes of production.The process of structural change will in turn change the labor income share.This paper presents the theoretical conditions for the direction of these changes and the underlying economic mechanism.We derive policy implications about how to promote high-quality development with AI.

Quantitative Analysis of Contribution of Industrial Structure to Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

The industrial structure in Jiangsu Province realizes the transformation from "secondary industry-primary industry-tertiary industry" to "tertiary industry-secondary industry-primary industry". However, the effectiveness of this model of industry-dominate industrial structure and the role of industrial structure pattern in promoting regional economic growth are yet to be researched. By using shift-share analysis method, we judge the importance of factors of industrial structure in regional economic growth of Jiangsu Province, and point out that factors of industrial structure are not the dominant forces in economic growth of Jiangsu Province; among the contributions of three industries to economic growth of Jiangsu Province, the contribution of the primary industry is greatest, followed by the contribution of secondary industry and the contribution of tertiary industry successively; real estate industry makes the greatest contribution to economic growth of Jiangsu Province; financial industry and construction industry make relatively small contributions; the potential of industry needs to be further developed. In the process of economic development of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure is yet to be further optimized so as to give play to the role of industry in promoting the development of Jiangsu Province.

The Industrial Structure Efficiency of Gansu Province since the Start of Reform and Opening up

According to the time series data of relevant industries from 1978 to 2008 in Gansu Province,the industrial structure efficiency of Gansu Province is studied from different perspectives based on the overview of the analysis methods and by applying the analysis models including comparative labor productivity,deviation degree of industrial structure and shift-share analysis model.The results show that,in Gansu Province,the comparative labor productivity is low in the primary and tertiary industries,while that in the second industry is high;the deviation coefficient of industrial structure is big and the industrial structure and employment structure is extremely asymmetric;the proportion of sunrise industry is large and has great contribution to economic growth.However,the competiveness of the three main industries is relatively weak and need further improvement.

Analysis on Features of Agricultural Structure Change and Agricultural Competitiveness in Hubei Province

The output data of crop farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in the Hubei Statistical Yearbook-2009 is used to analyze the features of agricultural structure change in Hubei Province since 1983;according to the relevant data in Hubei Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook in 2005 and 2009,and adopting the shift-share analysis model,the difference in agricultural economic growth between Hubei and other provinces in Central China as well as the difference among the 17 regions of Hubei Province during 2004-2008 are analyzed.Results show that,the agriculture in Hubei Province shows significant overall advantages in central China and has stronger competitiveness,but its crop farming and fishery structure are not quite reasonable,and the competitive advantages of its fishery and agricultural services still need to be strengthened;the agricultural structure within Hubei Province sees an obvious regional differences,viewed from the total deviation,Huanggang,Jingmen and Yichang enjoy competitive edge in the whole province,from the viewpoint of industrial sectors,Huanggang is the most competitive in its planting,forestry and animal husbandry,while Jingmen is the strongest in fishery and Xiangfan has a competitive edge over others in its agricultural services.Based on those results above,it is proposed that Hubei Province should fully recognize its natural conditions,resources endowment and current differences in the economic status of each places,work out measures to suit local conditions,take full use of its advantages,extend its production chain and go on the development road with regional characteristics.

人工智能如何影响劳动收入份额——基于产业结构与企业升级的机制探讨

作为一项重要技术变革,人工智能在推动产业智能化的同时,势必对劳动力市场的要素收入分配产生重要影响。本文基于偏向性技术进步理论,运用2010—2021年中国城市与企业层面面板数据,从系统性视角考察人工智能对劳动收入份额的宏微观影响机制。研究结果显示:(1)人工智能应用在宏微观层面均有利于劳动收入份额增加,该结论在经过工具变量法、机器学习法估计等一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。(2)宏观层面,人工智能可通过产业结构高级化增加劳动收入份额。(3)微观层面,人工智能可通过提高创新质量、创新效率与全要素生产率来增加劳动收入份额。(4)人工智能对劳动收入份额的积极影响在城市层面的高人口规模、高市场化水平、高劳动力保护强度、高劳动力技能水平及企业层面的高企业规模、高劳动力技能水平、低劳动要素密集度的样本中尤为明显。研究结论为我国在数智化浪潮中完善收入分配制度、实现共同富裕提供了有益启示。

考虑用户偏好的停车场共享泊位分配模型

城镇化、机动化的持续快速发展催生了城市停车问题,为缓解日益严峻的停车窘境,共享停车应运而生并受到广泛关注与研究。为弥补经典共享泊位分配模型对用户停车成本刻画及用户效益评价的缺失,基于共享停车既有研究及调研数据,构建共享停车选择意愿结构方程模型以分析用户偏好,标定结果显示:模型识别出停车费用、步行距离、违停罚款、寻停时间四类停车偏好,且路径系数依次降低。将结构方程模型识别结果及路径系数作为用户停车成本建模的依据,以经营平台收益与用户停车成本的差值表示系统效益,将系统效益最大化作为优化目标,综合泊位时空间约束,提出考虑用户偏好的停车场共享泊位分配模型。设计随机生成分配方案的蒙特卡洛算法,定义平台让利程度以评价用户效益。数值算例表明:设计的蒙特卡洛算法能够有效求解模型,在模拟次数约10000次后得到系统效益最大值;考虑用户偏好的停车场共享泊位分配模型能够将用户效益提升约7.5%,为共享经营平台权衡自身收益及用户效益提供一定的理论参考。

创意体验及分享行为对网红景点消费意愿的影响研究——以西安为例

随着文化与旅游的深度融合,网红景点打卡受到了越来越多游客的青睐,网红景点消费占文化旅游消费的比重也随之增大,对促进文化旅游消费和区域经济发展具有重要的意义。文章以西安为例,基于旅游体验和计划行为理论,构建文化创意体验对网红景点消费意愿影响的理论模型和结构方程模型,并根据284份有效问卷的调查数据检验研究假设,分析文化创意体验及分享行为对景点消费意愿的影响。研究结果表明:游客文化创意体验对网红景点消费意愿具有显著的直接影响,路径系数为0.231;旅游分享行为对消费意愿影响的路径系数为0.222;行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制变量的中介效应显著,分享行为能够通过三个中介变量显著正向影响消费意愿。因此,为实现文化旅游的高质量发展、增强消费意愿,应多渠道宣传、增强网红景点旅游体验质量,以增进游客旅游体验的消费意愿。

我国各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化历程研究

就业是最基本的民生,也是推动各民族共同走向现代化、推动中华民族共同体建设的重要手段。通过利用第三次至第七次全国人口普查资料,对改革开放40年来我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化发展的历史进程进行了分析,结果显示,第一,40年来,各民族就业产业结构类型从以原始型为主转变为发展型占绝对优势,现代化转变趋势凸显。第二,我国各民族就业人口产业结构现代化历程经历四个阶段:1982至1990年为蓄能阶段,各民族人口在第一产业的占比下降幅度较小,现代化进程缓慢;1990至2000年为现代化起步阶段,东部地区外向型经济的发展带动各民族就业人口产业结构现代化起步;2000至2010年,西部大开发和特色产业发展加速民族地区经济模式转型,进入现代化加速阶段;2010至2020年,在精准扶贫等政策推动下,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化实现飞跃,少数民族整体第一产业比例降幅高达34.24个百分点,大多数民族进入现代化中后期。第三,各民族就业人口产业结构现代化差异性缩减,同步性凸显,各民族就业人口产业结构共同现代化的趋势得到确认。第四,目前存在个别民族第一产业人口占比依旧较高等问题,应该将这部分民族的发展作为未来民族工作的重点,争取在本世纪中叶实现56个民族全部完成就业人口产业结构现代化,实现全面建设社会主义现代化国家,一个民族也不能少。

分税制下财政治理现代化的双重内涵与建构路径——基于结构功能主义的视角

财政治理现代化决定了国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化。分税制财政体制已经从“适应市场经济体制”转型为“匹配国家治理现代化”,作为中国式现代化的重要内容,分税制下财政治理现代化具有纵横协同治理体系现代化和权、责、利相统一的治理能力现代化的双重内涵,前者呈现出治理主体间的三重结构,后者则呈现出治理功能上的四重维度。纵横协同的治理体系优化需要实施“有效市场”与“有为政府”的衔接配合、增强统一领导与“两个积极性”的有机联动以及落实“省负总责”与“分级负责”,而权、责、利相统一的治理能力现代化则需要优化配置事权、支出责任与财力、财权,将纵横协同的治理体系优势转化为国家治理的效能。结构功能主义的研究范式有助于阐释中国式财政治理现代化的规范内涵,并为新一轮财税体制改革提供理论依据和制度支撑。