The Dvorak technique has been widely used by operational warning centres around the world as a major analysis tool to determine the intensity of a tropical cyclone(TC).However,there exist noticeable differences in the...The Dvorak technique has been widely used by operational warning centres around the world as a major analysis tool to determine the intensity of a tropical cyclone(TC).However,there exist noticeable differences in the application of the technique among different warning centres.In particular,the weakening rules in the technique that governs the determination of TC intensity during the TC weakening stage constitute one such difference and are the subject of review in this paper.Three options to modify the weakening rules are introduced and evaluated based on verification against the best-track datasets from various centres.展开更多
The Advanced Dvorak Technique(ADT)is used by tropical cyclone prediction centres around the world to accurately evaluate the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)from meteorological operational satellites.The algorithm ...The Advanced Dvorak Technique(ADT)is used by tropical cyclone prediction centres around the world to accurately evaluate the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)from meteorological operational satellites.The algorithm development team has introduced new improvements to the objective ADT to further extend its capabilities and accuracy.A study has therefore undergone to evaluate the new edition of ADT(9.0)based on all the North Indian Ocean Tropical cyclones during 2018,2019 and 2020(Total 15 No.).It is found that ADT(9.0)performed well with the conformity of IMD’s best track T.No estimates.ADT is reasonably good in estimating the intensity for T≥4.0(VSCS to SuCS)and overestimate the intensity for T≤3.5(CS/SCS).展开更多
利用自主研发的风云二号(FY-2)基于月球辐射校正的内黑体定标(CIBLE,Calibration of Inner Blackbody Corrected by Lunar Emission)方法,采用台风Dvorak卫星客观定强技术,分别选用2012年夏季定标平稳变化期、秋季星蚀期的强台风、超强...利用自主研发的风云二号(FY-2)基于月球辐射校正的内黑体定标(CIBLE,Calibration of Inner Blackbody Corrected by Lunar Emission)方法,采用台风Dvorak卫星客观定强技术,分别选用2012年夏季定标平稳变化期、秋季星蚀期的强台风、超强台风过程,进行了FY-2E红外波段的CIBLE定标结果、交叉定标(GSICS,Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System)结果、日本MTSAT定标结果的台风客观定强分析.结果表明,CIBLE方法能够正确反映FY-2E在轨定标斜率的日变化和年变化,确保了FY-2E/CIBLE与MTSAT定标结果估算的各级别台风强度稳定一致.特别在FY-2E秋季星蚀期,明显提高了台风夜间定强的准确率,与GSICS定标相比,台风中心最大风速误差减小了14 m/s,极大促进了台风强度监测预报水平的提升.展开更多
文摘The Dvorak technique has been widely used by operational warning centres around the world as a major analysis tool to determine the intensity of a tropical cyclone(TC).However,there exist noticeable differences in the application of the technique among different warning centres.In particular,the weakening rules in the technique that governs the determination of TC intensity during the TC weakening stage constitute one such difference and are the subject of review in this paper.Three options to modify the weakening rules are introduced and evaluated based on verification against the best-track datasets from various centres.
文摘The Advanced Dvorak Technique(ADT)is used by tropical cyclone prediction centres around the world to accurately evaluate the intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs)from meteorological operational satellites.The algorithm development team has introduced new improvements to the objective ADT to further extend its capabilities and accuracy.A study has therefore undergone to evaluate the new edition of ADT(9.0)based on all the North Indian Ocean Tropical cyclones during 2018,2019 and 2020(Total 15 No.).It is found that ADT(9.0)performed well with the conformity of IMD’s best track T.No estimates.ADT is reasonably good in estimating the intensity for T≥4.0(VSCS to SuCS)and overestimate the intensity for T≤3.5(CS/SCS).
