Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the character...Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.展开更多
Based on the time series of cash flows on ATM, the varying rule of withdrawal is analyzed. The model of autoregression and moving average is established by Matlab and the reliability is checked. According to the model...Based on the time series of cash flows on ATM, the varying rule of withdrawal is analyzed. The model of autoregression and moving average is established by Matlab and the reliability is checked. According to the model, the cash flows on ATM are forecasted in the coming 10 days. It is important for banks to prepare the cash.展开更多
Lake eutrophication caused by excess phosphorus （P） loading from point sources （PS） and nonpoint sources （NPS） is a persistent and serious ecological problem in China. A phosphorus budget, based on material flow...Lake eutrophication caused by excess phosphorus （P） loading from point sources （PS） and nonpoint sources （NPS） is a persistent and serious ecological problem in China. A phosphorus budget, based on material flow analysis（MFA） and system dynamic （SD）, is proposed and applied for the agriculture-dominated Qionghai Lake watershed located in southwestern China. The MFA-SD approach will not only cover the transporting process of P in the lake-watershed ecosystems, but also can deal with the changes of P budget due to the dynamics of watershed. P inflows include the fertilizer for agricultural croplands, soil losses, domestic sewage discharges, and the atmospheric disposition such as precipitation and dust sinking. Outflows are consisted of hydrologic export, water resources development, fishery and aquatic plants harvesting. The internal P recycling processes are also considered in this paper. From 1988 to 2015, the total P inflows for Lake Qionghai are in a rapid increase from 35.65 to 78.73 t/a, which results in the rising of P concentration in the lake. Among the total P load 2015, agricultural loss and domestic sewage account for 70.60% and 17.27% respectively, directly related to the rapid social-economic development and the swift urbanization. Future management programs designed to reduce P inputs must be put into practices in the coming years to ensure the ecosystem health in the watershed.展开更多
On August 30, 2020, a high-intensity storm that dropped 45.4 mm of rain in 5 hours hit the Heixiluo basin and triggered a landslide-generated debris flow event, causing fatalities and damage. The original source of th...On August 30, 2020, a high-intensity storm that dropped 45.4 mm of rain in 5 hours hit the Heixiluo basin and triggered a landslide-generated debris flow event, causing fatalities and damage. The original source of the debris flow was a large slope collapse on a steep hillside. The fallen debris mass was enlarged through sediment entrainment and slope collapse and ultimately buried a bridge at the gully entrance. Approximately 6.9×10;m;of material, including sediments and collapsed slope deposits in the gullies, was entrained, and the maximum erosion depth reached 17 m. A geomorphological analysis was initially performed based on a detailed field investigation to recognize the liquid and solid sources of the debris flow and the areas subjected to deposition and erosion. A map of the erosiondeposition distribution was obtained based on preand post-event DEMs. Using the rainfall estimated by the nearest rain gauge and the solid source estimated by the DEMs, runoff and debris flow propagation was simulated using a liquid-solid two-phase model that considers the effects of runoff and entrainment. The similarity between the estimated and simulated deposition-erosion volumes was satisfactory. The behaviour of debris flows captured in the simulation is broadly in line with the main features of the observed event.展开更多
A mass-balanced model was constructed to determine the flow-energy in a community of fishes and invertebrates in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea using Ecopath and Ecosim software. Input parameters were taken ...A mass-balanced model was constructed to determine the flow-energy in a community of fishes and invertebrates in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea using Ecopath and Ecosim software. Input parameters were taken from the literature, except for the biomass of fish groups which was obtained from trawl surveys during October 1997 to May 1999 in the study area. The model consisted of 16 functional groups （boxes）, including one marine mammal and seabirds, each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covered the main trophic flow in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. The results showed that the food web of Beibu Gulf was dominated by the detrital path and benthic invertebrates played a significant role in transferring energy from the detritus to higher trophic levels; phytoplankton was a primary producer and most utilized as a food source. Fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.08 with marine mammals occupying the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 16.7% from the detritus, 16.2% from the primary producer within the ecosystem. The biomass density of the commercially utilized species estimated by the model is 8.46 t/km^2, only O. 48% of the net primary production.展开更多
文摘Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.
文摘Based on the time series of cash flows on ATM, the varying rule of withdrawal is analyzed. The model of autoregression and moving average is established by Matlab and the reliability is checked. According to the model, the cash flows on ATM are forecasted in the coming 10 days. It is important for banks to prepare the cash.
基金The Hi-Tech Research and Development Program(863) of China(No. 2002AA601021) the National Basic Research Program(973) ofChina(No. 2005CB724205) Xichang Government, Sichuan Province
文摘Lake eutrophication caused by excess phosphorus （P） loading from point sources （PS） and nonpoint sources （NPS） is a persistent and serious ecological problem in China. A phosphorus budget, based on material flow analysis（MFA） and system dynamic （SD）, is proposed and applied for the agriculture-dominated Qionghai Lake watershed located in southwestern China. The MFA-SD approach will not only cover the transporting process of P in the lake-watershed ecosystems, but also can deal with the changes of P budget due to the dynamics of watershed. P inflows include the fertilizer for agricultural croplands, soil losses, domestic sewage discharges, and the atmospheric disposition such as precipitation and dust sinking. Outflows are consisted of hydrologic export, water resources development, fishery and aquatic plants harvesting. The internal P recycling processes are also considered in this paper. From 1988 to 2015, the total P inflows for Lake Qionghai are in a rapid increase from 35.65 to 78.73 t/a, which results in the rising of P concentration in the lake. Among the total P load 2015, agricultural loss and domestic sewage account for 70.60% and 17.27% respectively, directly related to the rapid social-economic development and the swift urbanization. Future management programs designed to reduce P inputs must be put into practices in the coming years to ensure the ecosystem health in the watershed.
基金supported by the CAS Original Innovation Program(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC039)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41907241)+1 种基金Foundation of Youth Innovation Promotion Association,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2021373)CAS“Light of West China”Program and the Foundation for Young Scientists of the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS(Grant No.SDS-QN-1901)。
文摘On August 30, 2020, a high-intensity storm that dropped 45.4 mm of rain in 5 hours hit the Heixiluo basin and triggered a landslide-generated debris flow event, causing fatalities and damage. The original source of the debris flow was a large slope collapse on a steep hillside. The fallen debris mass was enlarged through sediment entrainment and slope collapse and ultimately buried a bridge at the gully entrance. Approximately 6.9×10;m;of material, including sediments and collapsed slope deposits in the gullies, was entrained, and the maximum erosion depth reached 17 m. A geomorphological analysis was initially performed based on a detailed field investigation to recognize the liquid and solid sources of the debris flow and the areas subjected to deposition and erosion. A map of the erosiondeposition distribution was obtained based on preand post-event DEMs. Using the rainfall estimated by the nearest rain gauge and the solid source estimated by the DEMs, runoff and debris flow propagation was simulated using a liquid-solid two-phase model that considers the effects of runoff and entrainment. The similarity between the estimated and simulated deposition-erosion volumes was satisfactory. The behaviour of debris flows captured in the simulation is broadly in line with the main features of the observed event.
文摘A mass-balanced model was constructed to determine the flow-energy in a community of fishes and invertebrates in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea using Ecopath and Ecosim software. Input parameters were taken from the literature, except for the biomass of fish groups which was obtained from trawl surveys during October 1997 to May 1999 in the study area. The model consisted of 16 functional groups （boxes）, including one marine mammal and seabirds, each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covered the main trophic flow in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. The results showed that the food web of Beibu Gulf was dominated by the detrital path and benthic invertebrates played a significant role in transferring energy from the detritus to higher trophic levels; phytoplankton was a primary producer and most utilized as a food source. Fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.08 with marine mammals occupying the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 16.7% from the detritus, 16.2% from the primary producer within the ecosystem. The biomass density of the commercially utilized species estimated by the model is 8.46 t/km^2, only O. 48% of the net primary production.
