The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change o...The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.展开更多
It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable gene...It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.展开更多
文摘The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71103176
文摘It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.
