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Constructing a Teaching Evaluation Model for the Course of Beijing World Cultural Heritage Based on Dynamic Assessment Theory
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作者 TAN Hao XIANYU Jing 《Sino-US English Teaching》 2023年第4期137-142,共6页
The rapid development of international tourism has led to an increasing demand for English professionals. In order to meet this demand, universities have placed greater emphasis on the quality and level of teaching in... The rapid development of international tourism has led to an increasing demand for English professionals. In order to meet this demand, universities have placed greater emphasis on the quality and level of teaching in the courses of tourism English. This paper proposes a dynamic evaluation model for tourism English courses, based on the principles of dynamic assessment theory, such as process-orientation, evaluation-teaching integration, and multiple interactions. Taking the course of Beijing World Cultural Heritage as an example, the model is instantiated to demonstrate the feasibility of applying dynamic assessment theory to tourism English courses and this model helps to provide a reference for the evaluation methods of English courses. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment theory assessment mode Beijing World Heritage Course
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Dynamic Assessment on Ecosystem Vulnerability in Dashanbao Wetland 被引量:5
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作者 GAO Xing-guo LI Feng-mei 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2011年第6期93-95,98,共4页
[Objective] The aim was to assess the ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland.[Method] The evaluation index system of ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland was constructed by using analytic hierarchy proce... [Objective] The aim was to assess the ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland.[Method] The evaluation index system of ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland was constructed by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP),and the ecosystem vulnerability of Dashanbao wetland from 2002 to 2008 was assessed based on vulnerable degree of ecosystem.[Result] The vulnerable degree of ecosystem of Dashanbao wetland from 2002 to 2008 was 0.560 0,0.513 7,0.516 4,0.465 4,0.476 0,0.449 2 and 0.400 6 respectively,that is,showing decreasing trend on the whole,and the vulnerability of wetland ecosystem transformed from moderate vulnerability to mild vulnerability,and it showed that the ecological environment quality of Dashanbao wetland was better.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for wetland restoration,protection,ecological environment planning and management. 展开更多
关键词 Dashanbao wetland Ecological vulnerability Vulnerable degree dynamic assessment China
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Modeling dynamic assessment of ecosystem services based on remote sensing technology:A sampling of the Gansu grassland ecosystem 被引量:1
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作者 Jian Wang ZhengHua Chen 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 2010年第6期514-521,共8页
The ecosystem is important because it is the life sustaining system for human survival.Three ecosystem characteristics are:regional particularities,ecosystem complexity and conventional cultural particularities.This p... The ecosystem is important because it is the life sustaining system for human survival.Three ecosystem characteristics are:regional particularities,ecosystem complexity and conventional cultural particularities.This paper develops a remote sensing based dynamic model to assess grassland ecosystem service values involving multidisciplinary knowledge.The ecological value of grassland ecosystems is focused on using a remote sensing technique in the model,and setting up the framework for a dynamic assessing model.The grassland ecological services condition and value in 1985 is used as the benchmark.The dynamic model has two adjusting indicators:biomass and price index.The biomass is simulated using the CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) model.The price index was obtained from statistics data published by the statistical bureau.Results show that the grassland ecosystem value in Gansu Province was 28.36 billion Chinese Yuan in 1985,140.37 billion in 1999 and 130.86 billion in 2002. 展开更多
关键词 ecosystem services value dynamic assessing model remote sensing CASA BIOMASS price index
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Teaching French Through Dynamic Assessment:The Case of The First Year Undergraduate Students FLE
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作者 Sahraoui Lafrid 《Psychology Research》 2020年第11期438-452,共15页
It is well established that at the university,one forms the critical spirit,the spirit of analysis and the spirit of synthesis.What we advocate is a spirit of evaluation.The process we followed is part of a problemati... It is well established that at the university,one forms the critical spirit,the spirit of analysis and the spirit of synthesis.What we advocate is a spirit of evaluation.The process we followed is part of a problematic of teaching French and especially in didactics of writing.We have implemented an experimental device in our teaching practice.This is the dynamic evaluation.This evaluation allows the measurement of the initial level of achievement of a written production.And also the introduction of elements likely to help the subject to modify his usual strategies involved in the realization of a failed written production.But above all the appreciation of the way new strategies are involved.It is a four-phase experience that lasted a whole year.We first put our sample audience to a pre-test;with them,we determined the teaching objectives;then we set up the training workshops for the dynamic assessment,and finally we closed the process with a final test of measurement and evaluation.Two questionnaires were used and an observation grid. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment learning potential SKILLS transferable macrocompetence strategies MEDIATION
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Dynamic Assessment of College EFL Learners’Speaking Proficiency:A Case Study
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作者 Xin QU Yuanyuan LIU 《Chinese Journal of Applied Linguistics》 2022年第4期510-531,612,共23页
To investigate the impact of dynamic assessment(DA)on the development of speaking skills,a case study was conducted,recruiting a non-English major undergraduate.DA was constructed following the design combining sandwi... To investigate the impact of dynamic assessment(DA)on the development of speaking skills,a case study was conducted,recruiting a non-English major undergraduate.DA was constructed following the design combining sandwich and cake format with an interactionist approach.To collect data,a profile was designed in accordance with the China’s Standards of English Language Ability(CSE)to record the learner’s changes.A semi-structured interview was conducted to reveal his perspectives on DA.The generated profile with specific mediator-learner’s moves revealed the learner’s microgenetic development in both organizational knowledge and oral expression strategy ability.The thematic analysis of the interview demonstrated the learner’s positive experience with DA,while also unveiling the weak points of DA.Finally,the operational framework for applying interactionist DA in the oral classroom was discussed,and the complementary relationship between DA and traditional teaching and testing practices was highlighted. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment college EFL learner speaking ability
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A Case Study of Dynamic Assessment in EFL Process Writing 被引量:23
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作者 兰笑笑 刘燕 《Chinese Journal of Applied Linguistics》 2010年第1期24-40,73+127,共19页
动态评估源于教学法和认识论的相互构成关系,它的理论基础是维果斯基的最近发展区理论的发展观。该理论认为教授与评估是不可分割的,学生未来的发展是依靠师生共同努力使学习者跨越最近发展区实现的。本文不但介绍了动态评估理论,并以... 动态评估源于教学法和认识论的相互构成关系,它的理论基础是维果斯基的最近发展区理论的发展观。该理论认为教授与评估是不可分割的,学生未来的发展是依靠师生共同努力使学习者跨越最近发展区实现的。本文不但介绍了动态评估理论,并以此理论为支撑总结出一个英语写作教学的动态评估框架。依此框架展开的个案研究证明,对话式的教学不但有助于提高学生的写作兴趣,而且能提高学生的写作能力。本研究不仅对教学实践具有启发,而且也是国内英语写作教学中的一次创新。 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment process writing FRAMEWORK
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A Review of Empirical Studies in L2 Dynamic Assessment 被引量:1
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作者 LI Qinghua LI Di 《Chinese Journal of Applied Linguistics》 2015年第1期55-73,128,129,共21页
The present paper reviews 25 studies conducted in the domain of L2 (second/foreign language) dynamic assessment (DA) in recent years. It begins with a survey of relevant research, then discusses some of the major ... The present paper reviews 25 studies conducted in the domain of L2 (second/foreign language) dynamic assessment (DA) in recent years. It begins with a survey of relevant research, then discusses some of the major findings and problems, and finishes with some suggestions for further research. The main findings of the review are as follows: (a) DA has the potential to promote L2 competence development; (b) both the interactionist approach and interventionist approach have attracted the interest of L2 researchers; (c) most studies have focused on small samples; (d) reading and grammatical knowledge have drawn the most attention; (e) group DA may be a potential method to advance L2 competence development in both the focused individual and the other members of the group; (f) computers might play a complementary role to humans acting as mediators; and (g) case study methodology has been the overwhelming choice for experimental design. Based on the available research, we suggest that additional studies are called for on the following issues: (a) L2 DA as an approach to measurement, (b) potential mediators, (c) validity issues of L2 DA, (d) the interface between DA and second language acquisition, and (e) the development of L2 classroom teachers. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment empirical studies REVIEW
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Dynamic Assessment of the Carrying Capacity of Oilfield Derricks
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作者 胡少伟 聂建国 +1 位作者 王伟 陈淮 《Tsinghua Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CAS 2001年第1期63-66,共4页
This paper presents a dynamic evaluation method to calculate the buckling strength of oilfield derricks. First, the linear relationship between the basic frequency and the ultimate strength of the cantilever structure... This paper presents a dynamic evaluation method to calculate the buckling strength of oilfield derricks. First, the linear relationship between the basic frequency and the ultimate strength of the cantilever structure with axial load is determined using the dynamic eigenvalue equations of the structure. Then, the basic frequency, ω 2 1i , corresponding to the load, N i, can be calculated or measured, and the linear relationship of ω 2 1i ~N i is plotted using the data mentioned above. The axial force corresponding to ω 2 1i =0 is the required buckling strength of the oilfield derrick. The suggested method can evaluate the buckling strength of oilfield derricks combining nondestructive testing with calculating. It is a convenient and practical method to estimate the carrying capacity of any steel structure. 展开更多
关键词 buckling load DERRICK dynamic assessment
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Critical Contingencies Ranking for Dynamic Security Assessment Using Neural Networks
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作者 Gustavo Schweickardt Juan Manuel Gimenez-Alvarez 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2012年第10期1663-1672,共10页
A number of contingencies simulated during dynamic security assessment do not generate unacceptable values of power system state variables, due to their small influence on system operation. Their exclusion from the se... A number of contingencies simulated during dynamic security assessment do not generate unacceptable values of power system state variables, due to their small influence on system operation. Their exclusion from the set of contingencies to be simulated in the security assessment would achieve a significant reduction in computation time. This paper defines a critical contingencies selection method for on-line dynamic security assessment. The selection method results from an off-line dynamical analysis, which covers typical scenarios and also covers various related aspects like frequency, voltage, and angle analyses among others. Indexes measured over these typical scenarios are used to train neural networks, capable of performing on-line estimation of a critical contingencies list according to the system state. 展开更多
关键词 Critical contingencies dynamic security assessment neural networks.
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Inexact dynamic optimization for groundwater remediation planning and risk assessment under uncertainty
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《Global Geology》 1998年第1期22-23,共2页
关键词 Inexact dynamic optimization for groundwater remediation planning and risk assessment under uncertainty
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Refined and dynamic susceptibility assessment of landslides using InSAR and machine learning models
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作者 Yingdong Wei Haijun Qiu +5 位作者 Zijing Liu Wenchao Huangfu Yaru Zhu Ya Liu Dongdong Yang Ulrich Kamp 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第6期105-120,共16页
Landslide susceptibility assessment is crucial in predicting landslide occurrence and potential risks.However,traditional methods usually emphasize on larger regions of landsliding and rely on relatively static enviro... Landslide susceptibility assessment is crucial in predicting landslide occurrence and potential risks.However,traditional methods usually emphasize on larger regions of landsliding and rely on relatively static environmental conditions,which exposes the hysteresis of landslide susceptibility assessment in refined-scale and temporal dynamic changes.This study presents an improved landslide susceptibility assessment approach by integrating machine learning models based on random forest(RF),logical regression(LR),and gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)with interferometric synthetic aperture radar(InSAR)technology and comparing them to their respective original models.The results demonstrated that the combined approach improves prediction accuracy and reduces the false negative and false positive errors.The LR-InSAR model showed the best performance in dynamic landslide susceptibility assessment at both regional and smaller scale,particularly when identifying areas of high and very high susceptibility.Modeling results were verified using data from field investigations including unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)flights.This study is of great significance to accurately assess dynamic landslide susceptibility and to help reduce and prevent landslide risk. 展开更多
关键词 Landslide susceptibility Machine learning models INSAR dynamic assessment
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Understanding Discrepancy of Power System Dynamic Security Assessment with Unknown Faults: A Reliable Transfer Learning-based Method
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作者 Chao Ren Han Yu +1 位作者 Yan Xu Zhao Yang Dong 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第1期427-431,共5页
This letter proposes a reliable transfer learning(RTL)method for pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)in power systems to improve DSA performance in the presence of potentially related unknown faults.It takes ind... This letter proposes a reliable transfer learning(RTL)method for pre-fault dynamic security assessment(DSA)in power systems to improve DSA performance in the presence of potentially related unknown faults.It takes individual discrepancies into consideration and can handle unknown faults with incomplete data.Extensive experiment results demonstrate high DSA accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed RTL method.Theoretical analysis shows RTL can guarantee system performance. 展开更多
关键词 Adversarial training dynamic security assessment maximum classifier discrepancy missing data transfer learning
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Comparison Between Peer Mediation and Teacher Mediation in Dynamic EFL Writing Assessment:A Case Study 被引量:3
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作者 李迪 《Chinese Journal of Applied Linguistics》 2015年第4期490-502,504,505,共15页
The present case study explores the effects of mediation of dynamic assessment (DA) on EFL writing development of English majors. Two junior English majors and their English writing teacher in a Chinese university w... The present case study explores the effects of mediation of dynamic assessment (DA) on EFL writing development of English majors. Two junior English majors and their English writing teacher in a Chinese university were involved in a DA writing task. Student B was asked to write an application letter in English of around 500 words during her spare time. Student A and the teacher, as the mediators, tried to help her improve the essay based on her Zone of Proximal Development (ZPD). The dialogues in the two mediation processes were recorded and transcribed. Analysis of the data from Student B's compositions and the recorded talks during the mediation process showed that there are some similarities between the two mediations including making more use of implicit prompts to guide the learner and playing a positive role to facilitate EFL language growth, especially grammar. The.analysis, however, also showed great differences. The teacher tutor attempted more prompts and more implicit strategies than the peer to show that the teacher could do a better job in exploring the learner's ZPD. Even so, the peer might be of important help in improving the language and content before a teacher mediation in the DA process. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic assessment EFL writing MEDIATION teacher mediation peer mediaton
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Dynamic Comprehensive Assessment of Power Development Based on Provincial Data
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作者 Wei Hu Qiuting Guo +3 位作者 Yifan Zhou Yi Kang Huanshuai Bing Dan Bao 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第3期672-680,共9页
Dynamic comprehensive assessment of regional power industry development levels is of paramount importance for understanding the development characteristics and potential of the local power industry.A tri-level evaluat... Dynamic comprehensive assessment of regional power industry development levels is of paramount importance for understanding the development characteristics and potential of the local power industry.A tri-level evaluation index system is established,describing five aspects of the local power industry development level,specifically,the coordination degree between the power industry and economy/energy,power generation,power consumption,power supply and development potential.A combination of information entropy and the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to establish a static evaluation model,and a blend of subjective opinions and objective data information is then realized.By aggregating the static evaluation model for each time period based on a time-ordered weighting vector calculated using time-ordered information entropy,a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of power industry development level is established.By considering provincial data from China recorded during 2007 to 2016 as the sample set,through synchronic and diachronic comparisons of the evaluation results,the differences,characteristics and potential of local power industry development in China are explored. 展开更多
关键词 Analytic hierarchy process development level of power electric industry dynamic comprehensive assessment information entropy
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Risk dynamics for marine systems:towards a bio-inspired framework for dynamic risk assessment
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作者 Nikolaos P.Ventikos Konstantinos Louzis 《Transportation Safety and Environment》 EI 2022年第3期1-17,共17页
The development of innovative, complex marine systems, such as autonomous ship concepts, has led to risk-based approaches indesign and operation that provide safety level quantification and continuous risk assessment.... The development of innovative, complex marine systems, such as autonomous ship concepts, has led to risk-based approaches indesign and operation that provide safety level quantification and continuous risk assessment. The existing approaches to dynamicrisk assessmentmainly aim at updating accident probabilities for specific risk scenarios, based on knowledge of system operation andfailure, aswell as on past accident and failure information. However, for innovative marine systems that include complex interactions,our ability to identify anything that might go wrong is very limited, which may lead to unidentified risks, and failure data may not beavailable. This paper presents the foundations of a framework for dynamic risk assessment, which is equally applicable to mannedand autonomous ships and mainly relies on information about the safe operational envelope and real-time information regardingdeviations from safety. Inspiration is drawn from how the biological immune system identifies the risk of infection in a dynamicenvironment. The objective is to show the feasibility and benefits of our approach for quantifying the operational risk of marinesystems. This paper provides the conceptual basis for developing ship specific applications and describes a process for dynamic riskassessment that is methodologically based on artificial immune systems. To demonstrate the implementation of our framework, wedescribed, an illustrative example that involves a ship in a grounding scenario. The results show that the bio-inspired assessmentprocess and risk description can reflect the changes of the risk level of a marine system. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic risk assessment artificial immune systems risk description system risk autonomous ships
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When to start renal replacement therapy in acute kidney injury: What are we waiting for?
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作者 Lixia Liu Zhenjie Hu 《Journal of Intensive Medicine》 CSCD 2024年第3期341-346,共6页
Acute kidney injury remains a serious condition with a high mortality risk. In the absence of any new drugs, renal replacement therapy (RRT) is the most important treatment option. Randomized controlled trials have co... Acute kidney injury remains a serious condition with a high mortality risk. In the absence of any new drugs, renal replacement therapy (RRT) is the most important treatment option. Randomized controlled trials have concluded that in critically ill patients without an emergency indication for RRT, a watchful waiting strategy is safe;however, further delays in RRT did not seem to confer any benefit, rather was associated with potential harm. During this process, balancing the risks of complications due to an unnecessary intervention with the risk of not correcting a potentially life-threatening complication remains a challenge. Dynamic renal function assessment, especially dynamic assessment of renal demand-capacity matching, combined with renal biomarkers such as neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin and furosemide stress test, is helpful to identify which patients and when the patients may benefit from RRT. 展开更多
关键词 Acute kidney injury Renal replacement therapy Initiation timing dynamic assessment Biomarkers
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Dynamic trip point categorisation using manufacturing process for polycrystalline diamond compact bits as case study
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作者 Zubair Ahmad Khan Khalid Khan +3 位作者 Shuja Ahmad Khan Shahbaz Khan Muhammad Tufail Abdel Nasser 《Journal of Control and Decision》 EI 2022年第3期311-321,共11页
Disruptions in the manufacturing process cast substantial impacts on the consumer’s centric values,cost,and overall efficiency.The ripple effect of these disruptions is observed in the whole assembly line.The proper ... Disruptions in the manufacturing process cast substantial impacts on the consumer’s centric values,cost,and overall efficiency.The ripple effect of these disruptions is observed in the whole assembly line.The proper analysis and mitigation of disruptions is the key to the proficiency of the plant and resource utilisation.The research focuses on the quantitative analysis of the impact of disruptions of the manufacturing process,which is performed by analysing the disruptive workstation dynamically.The disruptive workstations have a significant impact on succeeding and preceding workstations,which have been analysed dynamically,and accordingly,the preset alarm trip points are elevated.The results show that lowering the number of starts and stops decreases the number of rejections of valuable process batches that finally improve efficiency.Finally,the developed model is implemented on a polycrystalline diamond compact drill bit manufacturing plant.The results are compared with the research work of other researchers,showing a 60%reduction in the number of start/stop events,60%reduction in downtime,while a 75%reduction in the number of rejections is noted. 展开更多
关键词 DISRUPTIONS dynamic assessment DOWNTIME alarm tripoints
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Two-stage Transient-stability-constrained Optimal Power Flow for Preventive Control of Rotor Angle Stability and Voltage Sags
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作者 Jorge Uriel Sevilla-Romero Alejandro Pizano-Martínez +1 位作者 Claudio Rubén Fuerte-Esquivel Reymundo Ramírez-Betancour 《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 SCIE EI 2024年第5期1357-1369,共13页
In practice,an equilibrium point of the power system is considered transiently secure if it can withstand a specified contingency by maintaining transient evolution of rotor angles and voltage magnitudes within set bo... In practice,an equilibrium point of the power system is considered transiently secure if it can withstand a specified contingency by maintaining transient evolution of rotor angles and voltage magnitudes within set bounds.A novel sequential approach is proposed to obtain transiently stable equilibrium points through the preventive control of transient stability and transient voltage sag(TVS)problems caused by a severe disturbance.The proposed approach conducts a sequence of non-heuristic optimal active power re-dispatch of the generators to steer the system toward a transiently secure operating point by sequentially solving the transient-stability-constrained optimal power flow(TSC-OPF)problems.In the proposed approach,there are two sequential projection stages,with the first stage ensuring the rotor angle stability and the second stage removing TVS in voltage magnitudes.In both projection stages,the projection operation corresponds to the TSC-OPF,with its formulation directly derived by adding only two steady-state variable-based transient constraints to the conventional OPF problem.The effectiveness of this approach is numerically demonstrated in terms of its accuracy and computational performance by using the Western System Coordinated Council(WSCC)3-machine 9-bus system and an equivalent model of the Mexican 46-machine 190-bus system. 展开更多
关键词 dynamic security assessment transient stability transient voltage sag(TVS) optimal power flow(OPF)
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Selecting decision trees for power system security assessment
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作者 Al-Amin B.Bugaje Jochen L.Cremer +1 位作者 Mingyang Sun Goran Strbac 《Energy and AI》 2021年第4期21-30,共10页
Power systems transport an increasing amount of electricity,and in the future,involve more distributed renewables and dynamic interactions of the equipment.The system response to disturbances must be secure and predic... Power systems transport an increasing amount of electricity,and in the future,involve more distributed renewables and dynamic interactions of the equipment.The system response to disturbances must be secure and predictable to avoid power blackouts.The system response can be simulated in the time domain.However,this dynamic security assessment(DSA)is not computationally tractable in real-time.Particularly promising is to train decision trees(DTs)from machine learning as interpretable classifiers to predict whether the systemwide responses to disturbances are secure.In most research,selecting the best DT model focuses on predictive accuracy.However,it is insufficient to focus solely on predictive accuracy.Missed alarms and false alarms have drastically different costs,and as security assessment is a critical task,interpretability is crucial for operators.In this work,the multiple objectives of interpretability,varying costs,and accuracies are considered for DT model selection.We propose a rigorous workflow to select the best classifier.In addition,we present two graphical approaches for visual inspection to illustrate the selection sensitivity to probability and impacts of disturbances.We propose cost curves to inspect selection combining all three objectives for the first time.Case studies on the IEEE 68 bus system and the French system show that the proposed approach allows for better DT-selections,with an 80%increase in interpretability,5%reduction in expected operating cost,while making almost zero accuracy compromises.The proposed approach scales well with larger systems and can be used for models beyond DTs.Hence,this work provides insights into criteria for model selection in a promising application for methods from artificial intelligence(AI). 展开更多
关键词 dynamic security assessment Machine learning Decision trees ROC curve Cost curves Cost sensitivity
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Changes of citrus climate risk in subtropics of China 被引量:2
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作者 DUAN Hailai QIAN Huaisui +1 位作者 LI Mingxia DU Yaodong 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2010年第6期818-832,共15页
Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The ... Based on the citrus temperature, precipitation, sunlight and climate risk degree, the article divides subtropics of China into three types: the low risk region, the moderate risk region and the high risk region. The citrus temperature risk increases with increasing latitude (except for the western mountainous area of subtropics of China). The citrus precipitation risk in the central part of subtropics of China is higher than that in the northern and western parts. The distributions of citrus sunlight risk are not consistent to those of the citrus precipitation risk. The citrus climate risk is mainly influenced by temperature. There is latitudinal zonal law for the distribution of the climate risk, that is, the climate risk increases with increasing latitude At the same time the climate risk in mountainous area is high and that in eastern plain area is low. There are differences in the temporal and spatial changes of the citrus climate. In recent 46 years, the citrus climate risk presents a gradual increasing trend in subtropics of China, especially it has been increasing fast since the 1980s. Because of the global warming, the low risk region in the eastern and southern parts has a gradual decreasing trend, however, the high risk region in the northern and western parts has an increasing trend and the high risk region has been extending eastward and southward. The article analyses the distribution of the citrus climate risk degree of reduction rates of 〉10%, 〉20% and 〉30% in subtropics of China, and studies their changes in different time periods. Results show that the risk is increasing from southeast to northwest. 展开更多
关键词 climate risk degree climate change climate risk dynamic assessment model climate suitability model CITRUS subtropics of China
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