A novel refined dynamic model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system for random vibration and running safety assessment

Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.

Flexible Load Participation in Peaking Shaving and Valley Filling Based on Dynamic Price Incentives

Considering the widening of the peak-valley difference in the power grid and the difficulty of the existing fixed time-of-use electricity price mechanism in meeting the energy demand of heterogeneous users at various moments or motivating users,the design of a reasonable dynamic pricing mechanism to actively engage users in demand response becomes imperative for power grid companies.For this purpose,a power grid-flexible load bilevel model is constructed based on dynamic pricing,where the leader is the dispatching center and the lower-level flexible load acts as the follower.Initially,an upper-level day-ahead dispatching model for the power grid is established,considering the lowest power grid dispatching cost as the objective function and incorporating the power grid-side constraints.Then,the lower level comprehensively considers the load characteristics of industrial load,energy storage,and data centers,and then establishes a lower-level flexible load operation model with the lowest user power-consuming cost as the objective function.Finally,the proposed method is validated using the IEEE-118 system,and the findings indicate that the dynamic pricing mechanism for peaking shaving and valley filling can effectively guide users to respond actively,thereby reducing the peak-valley difference and decreasing users’purchasing costs.

Simulation-based Graphic Method for Dynamic System Modeling

The first step for engineering students to understand the practical system is to describe the system,which means to establish the mathematic model for the considered system.However,traditional mathematical modeling techniques are not readily assimilated by students,because the traditional modeling needs to obey the complicated physical laws for different engineering areas and requires a highly iterative process.In this paper,the simulation-based graphic modeling method is introduced to help students model the system and improve their performance in engineering education.The results from the questionnaire indicate that the simulation-based graphic method can help students to do the modeling of the system and improve their performance compared to the traditional ways.

System dynamics of behaviour-evolutionary mix-game models

In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents： Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents： if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings： （i） the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; （ii） the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; （iii） there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; （iv） parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.

A Dynamic Evolution Model of Airline Networks

Empirical data show that most of the degree distribution of airline networks assume a double power law. In this work, firstly, we assume cities as sites, flight between two cities as an edge between two sites, and build a dynamic evolution model for airline networks by improving the BA model, in which the conception of attractiveness plays a decisive role in the course of evolution of the networks. To this end, we discuss whether the attractiveness depends on the site label s or not separately, finally we obtain analytic degree distribution. As a result, if the attractiveness of a site is independent of the degree distribution of sites, which will follow the double power law, otherwise, it will be scale-free. Moreover, degree distribution depends on the parameters of the models, and some parameters aye more sensitive than others.

A dynamic ejection coal burst model for coalmine roadway collapse

In this study,we established a dynamic ejection coal burst model for a coalmine roadway subject to stress,and held that the stress concentration zone at the roadway side is the direct energy source of this ejection.The formation and development of such burst undergoes three stages:(1)instability and propagation of the cracks in the stress concentration zone,(2)emerging of a layered energy storage structure in the zone,and(3)ejection of coal mass or coal burst due to instability.Moreover,we figured out the initial strength of periodic cracks is parallel to the maximal dominant stress direction in the stress concentration zone and derived from the damage strain energy within the finite area of the zone based on the Griffith energy theory.In addition,we analyzed the formation process of the layered energy storage structure in the zone,simplified it as a simply supported restraint sheet,and calculated the minimum critical load and the internally accumulated elastic energy at the instable state.Furthermore,we established a criterion for occurrence of the coal burst based on the variational principle,and analyzed the coal mass ejection due to instability and coal burst induced by different intensity disturbances.At last,with the stratum conditions of Junde Coalmine as the model prototype,we numerically simulated the load displacement distribution of the stress concentration zone ahead of the working face disturbed by the main roof-fracture-induced dynamic load during the mining process as well as their varying characteristics,and qualitatively verified the above model.

Two-dimensional Numerical Modeling Research on Continent Subduction Dynamics

Continent subduction is one of the hot research problems in geoscience. New models presented here have been set up and two-dimensional numerical modeling research on the possibility of continental subduction has been made with the finite element software, ANSYS, based on documentary evidence and reasonable assumptions that the subduction of oceanic crust has occurred, the subduction of continental crust can take place and the process can be simplified to a discontinuous plane strain theory model. The modeling results show that it is completely possible for continental crust to be subducted to a depth of 120 km under certain circumstances and conditions. At the same time, the simulations of continental subduction under a single dynamical factor have also been made, including the pull force of the subducted oceanic lithosphere, the drag force connected with mantle convection and the push force of the mid-ocean ridge. These experiments show that the drag force connected with mantle convection is critical for continent subduction.

Process-based modeling of morphodynamics of a tidal inlet system

The morphodynamic evolution of an idealized inlet system is investigated using a 2-D depthaveraged process-based model,incorporating the hydrodynamic equations,Englund-Hansen’s sediment transport formula and the mass conservation equation.The model has a fixed geometry,impermeable boundaries and uniform sediment grain size,and driven by shore-parallel tidal elevations.The results show that the model reproduces major elements of the inlet system,i.e.,flood and ebb tidal deltas,inlet channel.Equilibrium is reached after several years when the residual transport gradually decreases and eventually diminishes.At equilibrium,the flow field characteristics and morphological patterns agree with the schematized models proposed by O’Brien （1969） and Hayes （1980）.The modeled minimum cross-sectional entrance area of the tidal inlet system is comparable with that calculated with the statistical P-A relationship for tidal inlets along the East China Sea coast.The morphological evolution of the inlet system is controlled by a negative feedback between hydrodynamics,sediment transport and bathymetric changes.The evolution rates decrease exponentially with time,i.e.,the system develops rapidly at an early stage while it slows down at later stages.Temporal changes in hydrodynamics occur in the system;for example,the flood velocity decreases while its duration increases,which weakens the flood domination patterns.The formation of the multi-channel system in the tidal basin can be divided into two stages;at the first stage the flood delta is formed and the water depth is reduced,and at the second stage the flood is dissected by a number of tidal channels in which the water depth increases in response to tidal scour.

Viscoplastic Damage-Softening Constitutive Model for Concrete Subjected to Uniaxial Dynamic Compression

A new viscoplastic damage-softening constitutive model is presented. It is developed by integrating a Bodner-Partom viscoplastic model with a newdamage evolution equation. A set of ordinary differential equations（ ODEs） is formulated,and a Runge-Kutta integral method is used to get stress-strain curves given by the model. Also,stress-strain curves of a wide range of strain-rates for concrete were obtained by split Hopkinson pressure bar（ SHPB） tests. By fitting the integral stressstrain curves to the experimental ones with the least square optimization method,we determined the material parameters in our model. Some properties of the newmodel,such as strain-rate sensitivity,damage evolution characteristics,strain-rate jump effects and unloading feature,are explored.These results showthat our new model can describe dynamic behaviors of concrete very well,and our integrating-fitting-optimizing method to get material parameters is valid.

Development of a Methodology to Evaluate Projects Using Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models

The identification and selection of performance measures play an important role in any decision making process. Additionally, millions of dollars are spent on appropriate planning and identification of prospective projects for improvements. As a result, current practitioners spend a lot of time and money in prioritizing their limited resources. This research proposes two tasks: 1) estimation of performance measures using a simulation based on dynamic traffic assignment model, and 2) development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects based on benefit-cost analysis. The model, DynusT, is used for the Las Vegas roadway network during the morning peak time period. A comparative analysis of the results from proposed methodology with existing California Benefit-Cost (Cal-B/C) models is presented. The results indicate that the new methodology provides an accurate benefit-cost ratio of the projects. In addition, it signifies that the existing Cal-B/C models underestimate the benefits associated with the prospective project improvements. The major contribution of this research is the simultaneous estimation of the performance measures and development of a methodology to evaluate multiple projects. This is helpful to decision makers to rank and prioritize future projects in a cost-effective manner. Planning and operational policies for the transportation systems can be developed based on the gained insights from this study.

Impact of Weather Conditions and Dynamic Load Models on Steady State and Dynamic Response of Power System

This paper gives an insight on the effect of transmission line temperature variations, resulting from loading and weather conditions changes, on a power system＇s steady state and dynamic performance. The impact of dynamic load models on system stability is also studied. The steady-state and dynamic stability simulation results of a 39 bus system for constant line impedance （the traditional simulation practice） are compared to the results with estimated, but realistic, temperature varied line impedances using PSLF （positive sequence load flow） software. The modulated line impedances will affect the thermal loading levels and voltage profiles of buses under steady state response, while the dynamic results will show improved damping in electro-mechanical oscillations at generator buses.

Rock damage and fracturing induced by high static stress and slightly dynamic disturbance with acoustic emission and digital image correlation techniques

A series of coupled static-dynamic loading tests is carried out in this study to understand the effect of slightly dynamic disturbance on the rocks under high static stress.The acoustic emission(AE)and digital image correlation(DIC)techniques are combined to quantitatively characterize the damage and fracturing behaviors of rocks.The effects of three influencing factors,i.e.initial static stress,disturbance amplitude,and disturbance frequency,on the damage and fracturing evolution are analyzed.The experimental results reveal the great differences in AE characteristics and fracturing behaviors of rocks under static loads and coupled static-dynamic loads.Both the Kaiser effect and Felicity effect are observed during the disturbance loading process.The crack initiation,stable and unstable propagation in the highly-stressed rocks can be triggered by cyclic disturbance loads,and more local tensile splitting cracks are found in the rocks subjected to coupled static-dynamic loads.The damage and fracturing evolution of rocks during cyclic disturbances can be divided into two stages,i.e.steady and accelerated stages,and the increase rate and proportion of each stage are greatly affected by these influencing factors.High initial static stress,low disturbance frequency,and high disturbance amplitude are considered to be adverse factors to the stability of the rocks,which would induce a high increase rate of the steady stage and a high proportion of the accelerated stage within the whole disturbance period.Based on the two-stage damage evolution trend,a linear-exponential damage model is employed to predict the instability of the rocks under coupled static-dynamic loads.

Modeling of microstructure evolution of AZ80 magnesium alloy during hot working process using a unified internal state variable method

In this paper, a unified internal state variable(ISV) model for predicting microstructure evolution during hot working process of AZ80 magnesium alloy was developed. A novel aspect of the proposed model is that the interactive effects of material hardening, recovery and dynamic recrystallization(DRX) on the characteristic deformation behavior were considered by incorporating the evolution laws of viscoplastic flow, dislocation activities, DRX nucleation and boundary migration in a coupled manner. The model parameters were calibrated based on the experimental data analysis and genetic algorithm(GA) based objective optimization. The predicted flow stress, DRX fraction and average grain size match well with experimental results. The proposed model was embedded in the finite element(FE) software DEFORM-3 D via user defined subroutine to simulate the hot compression and equal channel angular extrusion(ECAE) processes. The heterogeneous microstructure distributions at different deformation zones and the dislocation density evolution with competitive deformation mechanisms were captured.This study can provide a theoretical solution for the hot working problems of magnesium alloy.

Hot deformation behaviors and dynamic recrystallization mechanism of Ti-35421 alloy inβsingle field

Hot deformation behaviors and microstructure evolution of Ti-3Al-5Mo-4Cr-2Zr-1Fe(Ti-35421)alloy in theβsingle field are investigated by isothermal compression tests on a Gleeble-3500 simulator at temperatures of 820-900°C and strain rates of 0.001-1 s^(-1).The research results show that discontinuous yield phenomenon and rheological softening are affected by the strain rates and deformation temperatures.The critical conditions for dynamic recrystallization and kinetic model of Ti-35421 alloy are determined,and the Arrhenius constitutive model is constructed.The rheological behaviors of Ti-35421 alloys aboveβphase transformation temperature are predicted by the constitutive model accurately.The EBSD analysis proves that the deformation softening is controlled by dynamic recovery and dynamic recrystallization.In addition,continuous dynamic recrystallization is determined during hot deformation,and the calculation model for recrystallization grain sizes is established.Good linear dependency between the experimental and simulated values of recrystallized grain sizes indicates that the present model can be used for the prediction of recrystallized grain size with high accuracy.

我国青贮玉米生产的集聚演变及其作用机制——基于动态空间杜宾模型

为观测青贮玉米生产的动态变化,研究基于2001—2021年我国30个省面板数据,选用重心模型分析青贮玉米生产集聚区域变动。在此基础上,借助动态空间杜宾模型剖析要素投入、社会经济、政策支持对中国青贮玉米生产区域变动的影响。结果表明,我国青贮玉米存在空间聚集现象,即2001—2021年间我国青贮玉米生产量的莫兰指数总体上呈“先降再升再降再升”的发展态势。生产重心演变轨迹结果显示,我国青贮玉米生产区域重心呈现“先东北后西北、西南”的演变趋势。机制结果表明,粮食优势、财政扶持、务工收入增加是推进青贮玉米生产的主要驱动因素;生产基础设备、化肥施用、农业收益对本省份青贮玉米生产具有正向影响,但对相邻省份青贮玉米生产的影响不显著。

基于动态主题网络的新兴技术主题识别——以氢燃料电池领域为例

[研究目的]新兴技术代表着未来的技术发展方向,是抢占科技前沿制高点必须把握的关键技术,准确识别新兴技术对国家发展具有重要战略意义。[研究方法]综合专利文本信息和分类信息,构建SBERT-LDA-IPC模型,识别各时间段的技术主题;根据主题相似度矩阵绘制动态主题网络,识别具有创新性和连续性的主题为候选主题,评估候选主题的新颖性和影响力,确定新兴技术主题;以氢燃料电池领域为例进行实证检验。[研究结论]研究表明,SBERT-LDA-IPC模型提高了主题聚类的连贯性和准确性,结合国家在氢燃料电池产业发布的系列政策作为验证依据,识别出的三个新兴技术主题,与国家政策制定和产业发展方向一致。

基于演化动力学的老年人在线健康信息搜寻行为研究

[目的/意义]分析老年人在线健康信息搜寻现状,掌握其热点主题及演化趋势,对满足和提高老年人健康信息需求与健康素养水平,推动老年健康服务高质量发展具有重要意义。[方法/过程]本研究采用DTM模型对2016-2023年间新浪微博发文内容进行动态主题挖掘与分析,分别从主题演化、主题语义演化和主题信息熵趋势等方面进行研究。[结果/结论]“老年病症”“科技养老”“食疗保健”“心理健康”及“社会关怀”等方面主题演化显著,老年人对老年常见病、身体医疗养护、社会助老爱老关怀和衣食住行等健康信息类型关注颇多,用于满足需求和获取信息。“老年病症”“运动保健”“高危风险”及“医疗诈骗”等主题语义稳定。“运动保健”“起居安全”及“病毒传播”等信息熵趋势较为稳定,“医疗素养”“疫情管控”“文体旅游”及“饮食均衡”等信息熵呈现扩散趋势,“高危风险”“食疗保健”“经济陷阱”及“医疗诈骗”等信息熵呈现收敛趋势。

动态网络局部社区演化过程溯源方法

随着网络规模的增大,全局社区演化分析越来越困难。考虑在某些场景中人们只关心某一局部社区的形成过程,即局部社区演化过程溯源,提出一种动态网络局部社区演化过程溯源方法,包括社区形成时刻识别、候选前驱社区集合检测和社区演化关系分析这3个环节。通过构造真伪社区分类器识别前驱社区形成时刻,在前驱社区形成时刻的网络快照上进行社区检测,获得包含待溯源社区中任意顶点的候选前驱社区;利用演化事件模型找出真正的前驱社区并识别对应演化事件。在真实网络数据集上的实验结果表明,所提方法优于基于均匀时间片划分的溯源方法,得到的待溯源社区形成路径图能够与真实路径图精准匹配,即社区形成时刻、前驱社区和演化事件均识别准确。

SEIAR模型在应急医疗物资动态分配优化中的应用

针对突发公共卫生事件中应急物资供应不足、分配不合理、配送效率低等问题给疫情防控带来的影响,用引入迁移率的传染病模型SEIAR(susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatic-recoverd,SEIAR)预测需求地不同时间段内受灾人数的动态变化,从而间接预测应急医疗物资的需求量;建立以需求地满足率最大化、运输时间最小化及总成本最小化为目标的多目标应急医疗物资动态分配模型。提出一种融合莱维飞行和非线性自适应惯性权重的改进鲸鱼优化算法,以提高算法寻优精度。以某地区新冠疫情发生状况为案例进行验证与仿真。结果表明,所构建的SEIAR模型具有较好的适应性,与传统的遗传算法(GA)、粒子群优化算法(PSO)相比,所提出的算法收敛速度更快,收敛精度更高。

我国科技评价政策主题的演化趋势

旨在分析我国科技评价政策主题演化趋势,以进一步优化我国科技评价体系。此次共纳入114篇政策文件,将时间跨度划分为4个阶段,运用动态主题模型(DTM)挖掘政策主题的分布特征,引入Hellinger距离分析主题演化趋势。研究结果表明:科技评价政策主题聚焦在9个方面,随着科技评价制度的完善,科技评价政策主题更加多元化;科技监督与治理、人才评价和科技绩效评价的主题强度呈现明显上升趋势;政策主题的演化方向和时代背景密切相关,呈现强延续性、强衍生性的特点,且上述主题强度上升的领域有望成为未来科技评价工作的重点。