Convection-Permitting Simulations of Current and Future Climates over the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)region,also known as the“Asian water tower”,provides a vital water resource for downstream regions.Previous studies of water cycle changes over the TP have been conducted with climate models of coarse resolution in which deep convection must be parameterized.In this study,we present results from a first set of highresolution climate change simulations that permit convection at approximately 3.3-km grid spacing,with a focus on the TP,using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Weather and Climate Model(ICON).Two 12-year simulations were performed,consisting of a retrospective simulation(2008–20)with initial and boundary conditions from ERA5 reanalysis and a pseudoglobal warming projection driven by modified reanalysis-derived initial and boundary conditions by adding the monthly CMIP6 ensemble-mean climate change under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The retrospective simulation shows overall good performance in capturing the seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature.Over the central and eastern TP,the average biases in precipitation(temperature)are less than−0.34 mm d−1(−1.1℃)throughout the year.The simulated biases over the TP are height-dependent.Cold(wet)biases are found in summer(winter)above 5500 m.The future climate simulation suggests that the TP will be wetter and warmer under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The general features of projected changes in ICON are comparable to the CMIP6 ensemble projection,but the added value from kilometer-scale modeling is evident in both precipitation and temperature projections over complex topographic regions.These ICON-downscaled climate change simulations provide a high-resolution dataset to the community for the study of regional climate changes and impacts over the TP.

Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Climate Controls of Vegetation Dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau during 1982–2011

The ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau is highly susceptible to climate change. Currently, there is little discussion on the temporal changes in the link between climatic factors and vegetation dynamics in this region under the changing climate.By employing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, the Climatic Research Unit temperature and precipitation data,and the in-situ meteorological observations, we report the temporal and spatial variations in the relationships between the vegetation dynamics and climatic factors on the Plateau over the past three decades. The results show that from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s, vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern part of the Plateau appears to show a closer relationship with precipitation prior to the growing season than that of temperature. From the mid-1990s, the temperature rise seems to be the key climatic factor correlating vegetation growth in this region. The effects of increasing temperature on vegetation are spatially variable across the Plateau: it has negative impacts on vegetation activity in the southwestern and northeastern part of the Plateau, and positive impacts in the central and southeastern Plateau. In the context of global warming, the changing climate condition(increasing precipitation and significant rising temperature) might be the potential contributor to the shift in the climatic controls on vegetation dynamics in the central and southeastern Plateau.

The Effects of Anomalous Snow Cover of the Tibetan Plateau on the Surface Heating

On the basis of snow data and AWS (Automatic Weather Station) data obtained from the Tibetan Plateau in recent years (1993 to 1999), the features of sensible heat, latent heat and net long-wave radiations are estimated, and their variations in more-snow year (1997/ 1998) and less-snow year (1996/ 1997) are analyzed comparatively. The relationships between snow cover of the Tibetan Plateau and plateau’s surface heating to the atmospheric heating are also discussed. The difference between more-snow and less-snow year in spring is remarkably larger than that in winter. Therefore, the effect of anomalous snow cover of the Tibetan Plateau in winter on the plateau heating appears more clearly in the following spring of anomalous snow cover. Key words Tibetan Plateau - Snow cover - Effects - Surface heat fluxes This research was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900 (I), National Natural Science Foundation of China (40075018) and Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Fund.

Formation and Variation of the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Effects

To cherish the memory of the late Professor Duzheng YE on what would have been his 100 th birthday, and to celebrate his great accomplishment in opening a new era of Tibetan Plateau（TP） meteorology, this review paper provides an assessment of the atmospheric heat source（AHS） over the TP from different data resources, including observations from local meteorological stations, satellite remote sensing data, and various reanalysis datasets. The uncertainty and applicability of these heat source data are evaluated. Analysis regarding the formation of the AHS over the TP demonstrates that it is not only the cause of the atmospheric circulation, but is also a result of that circulation. Based on numerical experiments, the review further demonstrates that land–sea thermal contrast is only one part of the monsoon story. The thermal forcing of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in generating the Asian summer monsoon（ASM）, i.e., in addition to pumping water vapor from sea to land and from the lower to the upper troposphere, it also generates a subtropical monsoon–type meridional circulation subject to the angular momentum conservation, providing an ascending-air large-scale background for the development of the ASM.

Improving Simulations of Vegetation Dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau:Role of Atmospheric Forcing Data and Spatial Resolution

The efficacy of vegetation dynamics simulations in offline land surface models(LSMs)largely depends on the quality and spatial resolution of meteorological forcing data.In this study,the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Data(PMFD)and the high spatial resolution and upscaled China Meteorological Forcing Data(CMFD)were used to drive the Simplified Simple Biosphere model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics(SSiB4/TRIFFID)and investigate how meteorological forcing datasets with different spatial resolutions affect simulations over the Tibetan Plateau(TP),a region with complex topography and sparse observations.By comparing the monthly Leaf Area Index(LAI)and Gross Primary Production(GPP)against observations,we found that SSiB4/TRIFFID driven by upscaled CMFD improved the performance in simulating the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP over the TP,reducing RMSEs by 24.3%and 20.5%,respectively.The multi-year averaged GPP decreased from 364.68 gC m^(-2)yr^(-1)to 241.21 gC m^(-2)yr^(-1)with the percentage bias dropping from 50.2%to-1.7%.When using the high spatial resolution CMFD,the RMSEs of the spatial distributions of LAI and GPP simulations were further reduced by 7.5%and 9.5%,respectively.This study highlights the importance of more realistic and high-resolution forcing data in simulating vegetation growth and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere over the TP.

Estimation of mass elevation effect and its annual variation based on MODIS and NECP data in the Tibetan Plateau

The lofty and extensive Tibetan Plateau has significant mass elevation effect(MEE). In recent years, a great effort has been made to quantify MEE, with the recognition of intra-mountain basal elevation(MBE) as the main determinant of MEE. In this study, we improved the method of estimating MEE with MODIS and NECP data, by refining temperature laps rate, and dividing MBE plots, and then analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of MEE in the Plateau. The main conclusions include: 1) the highest average annual MEE of the plateau is as high as 11.5488°C in the southwest of the plateau, where exists a high-MEE core and MEE takes on a trend of decreasing from the core to the surrounding areas; 2) in the interior of the plateau, the maximum monthly MEE is 14.1108°C in the highest MBE plot(4934 m) in August; while the minimum monthly MEE appeared primarily in January and February; 3) in the peripheral areas of the plateau, annual mean MEE is relatively low, mostly between 3.0068°C–5.1972°C, where monthly MEE is high in January and December and low in June and July, completely different from the MEE time-series variation in the internal parts of the plateau.

Utilizing a new soil effective temperature scheme and archived satellite microwave brightness temperature data to estimate surface soil moisture in the Nagqu region, Tibetan Plateau of China

Since the early 2000s, many satellite passive microwave brightness temperature （BT） archives, such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System （AMSR-E） BTs, have become the useful resources for assessing the changes in the surface and deep soil moistures over both arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used a new soil effective temperature （T scheme and the archived AMSR-E BTs to estimate surface soil moisture （SM） over the Nagqu region in the central Tibetan Plateau, China. The surface and deep soil temperatures required for the calculation of regional-scale T were obtained from outputs of the Community Land Model version 4.5 （CLM4.5）. In situ SM measurements at the CEOP-CAMP/Tibet （Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period Asia-Australia Monsoon Project on the Tibetan Plateau） experimental sites were used to validate the AMSR-E-based SM estimations at regional and single-site scales. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of monthly mean surface SM over the Nagqu region was obtained from 16 daytime AMSR-E BT observations in July 2004 over the Nagqu region. Results revealed that the AMSR-E-based surface SM estimations agreed well with the in situ-based surface SM measurements, with the root mean square error （RMSE） ranging from 0.042 to 0.066 m3/m3 and the coefficient of determination （R2） ranging from 0.71 to 0.92 during the nighttime and daytime. The regional surface soil water state map showed a clear spatial pattern related to the terrain. It indicated that the lower surface SM values occurred in the mountainous areas of the northern, mid-western and southeastern parts of Nagqu region, while the higher surface SM values appeared in the low elevation areas such as the Tongtian River Basin, Namco Lake and bog meadows in the central part of Nagqu region. Our analysis also showed that the new T^scheme does not require special fitting parameters or additional assumptions, which simplifies the data requirements for regional-scale applications. This scheme combined with the archived satellite passive microwave BT observations can be used to estimate the historical surface SM for hydrological process studies over the Tibetan Plateau regions.

Research progress on behaviors and environmental effects of mercury in the cryosphere of the Tibetan Plateau:a critical review

The behavior and fates of environmental pollutants within the cryosphere and the associated environmental impacts are of increasing concerns in the context of global warming.The Tibetan Plateau(TP),also known as the"Third Pole",represents one of the most important cryospheric regions in the world.Mercury(Hg)is recognized as a global pollutant.Here,we summarize the current knowledge of Hg concentration levels,pools and spatio-temporal distribution in cryospheric environments(e.g.,glacier,permafrost),and its transfer and potential cycle in the TP cryospheric region.Transboundary transport of anthropogenic Hg from the surrounding heavily-polluted regions,such as South and Southeast Asia,provides significant sources of atmospheric Hg depositions onto the TP cryosphere.We concluded that the melting of the cryosphere on the TP represents an increasing source of Hg and brings a risk to the TP environment.In addition,global warming acts as an important catalyst accelerating the release of legacy Hg from the melting cryosphere,adversely impacting ecosystems and biological health.Furthermore,we emphasize on the remaining gaps and proposed issues needed to be addressed in future work,including enhancing our knowledge on some key release pathways and the related environmental effects of Hg in the cryospheric region,integrated observation and consideration of Hg distribution,migration and cycle processes at a key region,and uses of Hg isotopic technical and Hg models to improve the understanding of Hg cycling in the TP cryospheric region.

What factors determine the mass elevation effect of the Tibetan Plateau?

The mass elevation effect(MEE)of the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has attracted the attention of geographers because of its significant influence on the Asian climate,snow line,timberline,and other important climate-ecological boundaries of the plateau and on global ecological patterns.In recent years,much progress has been made in quantifying the MEE of TP.However,factors that affect the size of MEE have not been examined in depth,and the key factors still remain unclear.Based on quantification of MEE for each mountain basal elevation plot,this study identifies the factors that contribute significantly to MEE of the plateau.Seven factors are considered,including mountain basal elevation,distance from the core zone of MEE,thermal continentality,maximum elevation,height difference,area,and difference of underlying surface(with the yearly max"Normalized Difference Vegetation Index"(NDVI)serving as a quantitative indicator).We also used these seven factors as independent variables to develop a multiple linear regression model for MEE of the plateau.Results show that:(1)the determination coefficient(R2)of the model reaches as high as 0.877,and the contributions of mountain basal elevation,distance from the core zone of MEE,thermal continentality,maximum elevation,topographical height difference,area,and NDVI are 39.77%,23.02%,14.48%,5.78%,11.41%,2.92%,and 2.62%,respectively,with mountain basal elevation and the distance from the core of MEE as the most important factors;(2)thermal continentality and MEE are significantly correlated,and maximum elevation only has a coupling relationship with MEE,with height difference and NDVI contributing little to MEE.This study deepens our understanding of MEE and its forming factors in the Tibetan Plateau.

Comparative analysis of the mass elevation effect and its implication for the treeline between the Tibetan and Bolivian plateaus based on solar radiation

As one of the main non-zonal factors,the mass elevation effect(MEE)has significant impacts on both regional climates and mountain ecological patterns.In recent years,with the development of quantitative techniques and methods,quantitative studies on the MEE and its implication on mountain altitudinal belts have developed rapidly.However,some issues have not been solved yet,such as high errors in spatial temperature estimations and difficulties in the definition and extraction of intramountain base elevation.Moreover,there is still a lack of comparative studies on the MEE and its influence on treelines and snowlines as most studies were conducted on specific mountains or plateaus.To compare the MEE magnitudes of the Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Bolivian Plateau(BP),we estimated the correspondent air temperatures and simulated the solar radiations based on MODIS surface temperature,station observation,and treeline data.Then,we analyzed the elevation of the 10℃isotherms on the two plateaus,the temperatures at the same elevation,and the solar radiations.According to the mechanism of the MEE and the relationship of solar radiation and treeline,we constructed treeline models for the two plateaus through a stepwise regression analysis by considering several influencing factors of the MEE(e.g.,air temperature and precipitation)and using solar radiation as its proxy.The results showed that:(1)the MEE magnitude on the TP is equivalent to that on the BP although the former is slightly higher than the latter;(2)the MEE strongly influences the highest treelines in the northern and southern hemispheres,which both occur on the two plateaus.Notably,the treeline distribution models based on solar radiation had higher accuracies than those models with parameters of temperature and precipitation(the adjusted R^(2) values were 0.76 for the TP and 0.936 for the BP),indicating that solar radiation can be used to quantify the MEE and its implications on treelines.Overall,the results of this study can serve as a basis for subsequent analyses on the MEE’s impact factors.

Plant community dynamics during the growing season of typical ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau

The relationships between vegetation and environmental factors have always been a core concern of ecologists.The dynamic characteristics of plant communities during the growing season can directly reflect these relation-ships,so we examined this issue for three typical ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau.During the growing season,the dominant species remained stable while non-dominant species changed significantly in the alpine meadow and alpine steppe and a mono-dominant community was found in the temperate desert shrub.Due to the seasonal variations of temperature and soil water content,plant species diversity varied significantly during the growing season.Patrick richness,Pielou evenness and Simpson diversity indices differed significantly in the alpine meadow and alpine steppe.The total biomass of these three ecosystems was the largest during the middle growing season.Biomass was greater in the alpine meadow than the alpine steeps or temperature desert.The root-to-shoot ratio was the lowest during the middle growing season for the alpine meadow and alpine steppe and largest during the early growing season for temperate desert shrub.RDA showed the belowground and total biomass were greatly affected by soil physicochemical factors.Multiple linear stepwise regression showed the above ground biomass was greatly affected by relative atmospheric humidity and belowground and total biomass were greatly affected by soil organic carbon,total nitrogen at 0-20 cm soil depth and pH at 10-20 cm soil depth.These findings pro-vide insights into understanding the relationships between vegetation and environmental factors and promote the sustainable utilization of local grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau.

Mechanism of Formation of the Ozone Valley over the Tibetan Plateau in Summer-Transport and Chemical Process of Ozone

With the 3D chemical transport model OSLO CTM2, the valley of total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau in summer is reproduced. The results show that when the ozone valley occurs and develops, the transport process plays the main part in the ozone reduction, but the chemical process partly compensates for the transport process. In the dynamic transport process of ozone, the horizontal transport process plays the main part in the ozone reduction in May, but brings about the ozone increase in June and July. The vertical advective process gradually takes the main role in the ozone reduction in June and July. The effect of convective activities rises gradually so that this effect cannot be overlooked in July, as its magnitude is comparable to that of the net changes. The effect of the gaseous chemical process brings about ozone increases which are more than the net changes sometimes, so the chemical effect is also important.

Modeling black carbon and its potential radiative effects over the Tibetan Plateau

A regional climate model(RegCM4.3.4) coupled with an aerosol-snow/ice feedback module was used to simulate the deposition of anthropogenic light-absorbing impurities in snow/ice and the potential radiative feedback of black carbon(BC) on temperature and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) in 1990-2009. Two experiments driven by ERA-interim reanalysis were performed, i.e., with and without aerosol-snow/ice feedback. Results indicated that the total deposition BC and organic matter(OM) in snow/ice in the monsoon season(MayeS eptember) were much more than non-monsoon season(the remainder of the year). The great BC and OM deposition were simulated along the margin of the TP in the non-monsoon season, and the higher deposition values also occurred in the western TP than the other regions during the monsoon period. BC-in-snow/ice decreased surface albedo and caused positive surface radiative forcing(SRF)(3.0-4.5 W m^(-2)) over the western TP in the monsoon season. The maximum SRF(5-6 W m^(-2)) simulated in the Himalayas and southeastern TP in the non-monsoon season. The surface temperature increased by 0.1-1.5℃ and snow water equivalent decreased by 5-25 mm over the TP, which showed similar spatial distributions with the variations of SRF in each season. This study provided a useful tool to investigate the mechanisms involved in the effect of aerosols on climate change and the water cycle in the cryospheric environment of the TP.

Characterizing the Mass Elevation Effect across the Tibetan Plateau

It is over 110 years since the term Mass Elevation Effect(MEE) was proposed by A. D. Quervain in 1904. The quantitative study of MEE has been explored in the Tibetan Plateau in recent years; however, the spatial distribution of MEE and its impact on the ecological pattern of the plateau are seldom known. In this study, we used a new method to estimate MEE in different regions of the plateau, and, then analyzed the distribution pattern of MEE, and the relationships among MEE, climate, and the altitudinal distribution of timberlines and snowlines in the Plateau. The main results are as follows:(1) The spatial distribution of MEE in the Tibetan Plateau roughly takes on an eccentric ellipse in northwestsoutheast trend. The Chang Tang Plateau and the middle part of the Kunlun Mountains are the core area of MEE, where occurs the highest MEE of above 11℃; and MEE tends to decreases from this core area northwestward, northeastward and southward;(2) The distance away from the core zone of the plateau is also a very important factor for MEE magnitude, because MEE is obviously higher in the interior than in the exterior of the plateau even with similar mountain base elevation(MBE).(3) The impacts of MEE on the altitudinal distribution of timberlines and snowlines are similar, i.e., the higher the MEE, the higher timberlines and snowlines. The highest timberline(4600–4800 m) appears in the lakes and basins north of the Himalayas and in the upper and middle reach valleys of the Yarlung Zangbo River, where the estimated MEE is 10.2822℃–10.6904℃. The highest snowline(6000–6200 m) occurs in the southwest of the Chang Tang Plateau, where the estimated MEE is 11.2059°C–11.5488℃.

Review of numerical simulation on the dynamics of Qinghai-Xizang plateau

In recent twenty years, much numerical simulation work has been done on the evolution of Qinghai-Xizang (Tibetan) plateau. In this paper some principal numerical models and results are reviewed and analyzed. The earlier plane stress or plane strain model has much discrepancy with the actual deformation of Qinghai-Xizang plateau, such as the thickening of Tibetan crust and the lateral extrusion of Tibet along strike-slip faults. The thin viscous sheet model and the thin-plate model may simulate the change of the crustal thickness and the deformation pro-duced by gravitational force. It is suitable for studying the large-scale and long-time deformation. The influence of faults on the deformation of Tibetan plateau should be further studied.

Study on potential evapotranspiration and wet-dry condition in the seasonal frozen soil region of northern Tibetan Plateau

This study was based on the CEOP/CAMP-Tibet observed data at AWS （Automatic Weather Station） of MS3478 in the seasonal frozen soil region of northern Tibetan Plateau from March 2007 to February 2008. The variation characteristics of PE （potential evapotransph＇ation） were analyzed based on the Penman-Monteith method recommended by FAO （the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na- lions）. The contributions of dynamic, thermal and water factors to PE were discussed, and the wet-dry condition of the plateau region was further studied. The results indicated that daily PE was between 0.52 mm and 6.46 mm for the whole year. Monthly PE was over 107 mm from May to September, but decreased to less than 41 mm from November to February. Annual PE was 1,037.8mm. In the summer, thermal PE was significantly more than dynamic PE, but conversely in the winter. Annual variation of thermal PE was of sine wave pattern. In addition, drought and semi-drought climate lasted for a long time while semi-humid climate was short. The effect of water and dynamic factors on PE varied considerably with the seasons. Annual variation of thermal PE was of sine wave pattern.

Genesis of the Cenozoic Sodic Alkaline Basalt in the Xiahe–Tongren Area of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau and its Continental Dynamic Implications

Objective The Cenozoic Indo-Asian collision caused significant crustal shortening and plateau uplift in the central Tibet. The extrusion tectonic model has been widely accepted to explain the strike-slip faults around the Tibetan Plateau. Previous studies indicate that the lower crust flow is the main drive force of the extrusion tectonics. Whether mantle extrusion process occurred during the Cenozoic uplift is a major problem to be addressed, which is significant for understanding the uplift mechanism and tectonic evolution of the Tibetan Plateau.

ABRUPT SEASONAL CHANGE OF ZONAL CIRCULATION OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

The abrupt changes of zonal circulation in the Tibetan Plateau(TP) region and their likely causes are derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data.The zonal circulation over the TP abruptly changed in summer(31st pentad) and winter(59th pentad).The switch from summer to winter circulation is characterized by a sudden northward shift of the westerlies and the zero-velocity curve and disappearance of the westerly jet.The winter-summer switch is characterized by the reverse pattern.Therefore,the circulation conversion between summer and winter can be judged from the position of the zero-velocity curve.Curves located north of 20 °N indicate summer circulation over the TP and vice versa.The abrupt change of zonal circulation is mainly caused by the thermodynamic effect of the TP.In June,this effect causes a huge monsoon circulation cell extending from the TP to low latitudes.Consequently,the westerlies jump to the north as easterlies develop.This process,which is enhanced by the strong northerly in Coriolis,establishes the summer circulation.In October,the Hadley cell recurs as the thermal effects of the TP diminish,the westerlies rush southward,and the winter circulation is established.