The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation cycle simulated by the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences

On the basis of more than 200-year control run, the performance of the climate system model of Chinese Academy of Sciences （CAS-ESM-C） in simulating the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） cycle is evalu- ated, including the onset, development and decay of the ENSO. It is shown that, the model can reasonably simulate the annual cycle and interannual variability of sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical Pacif- ic, as well as the seasonal phase-locking of the ENSO. The model also captures two prerequisites for the E1 Nino onset, i.e., a westerly anomaly and a warm SST anomaly in the equatorial western Pacific. Owing to too strong forcing from an extratropical meridional wind, however, the westerly anomaly in this region is largely overestimated. Moreover, the simulated thermocline is much shallower with a weaker slope. As a result, the warm SST anomaly from the western Pacific propagates eastward more quickly, leading to a faster develop- ment of an E1 Nino. During the decay stage, owing to a stronger E1Nino in the model, the secondary Gill-type response of the tropical atmosphere to the eastern Pacific warming is much stronger, thereby resulting in a persistent easterly anomaly in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, a cold anomaly in the warm pool appears as a result of a lifted thermocline via Ekman pumping. Finally, an E1 Nino decays into a La Nina through their interactions. In addition, the shorter period and larger amplitude of the ENSO in the model can be attribut- ed to a shallower thermocline in the equatorial Pacific, which speeds up the zonal redistribution of a heat content in the upper ocean.

Perturbation method of studying the EI Nifio oscillation with two parameters by using the delay sea-air oscillator model

The EI Nino-southern oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in tropical Pacific ocean- atmosphere interactions. In this paper, we develop an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation using the ENSO model. Based on a class of the oscillator of the ENSO model, a approximate solution of the corresponding problem is studied employing the perturbation method.

PERTURBED SOLUTION OF SEA-AIR OSCILLATOR FOR THE EL NI O/LA NI O-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION MECHANISM

A class of coupled system to oscillate of the E1 Nino/La Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions and asymptotic behavior of the solution for an ENSO model are obtained.

Perturbed solution of sea-air oscillator for the El Nino/ La Nina-Southern Oscillation mechanism

A class of coupled system of the E1 Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the perturbed theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behavior of solution for corresponding problem is considered.

The Relationship between the El Nio/La Nia Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric Oscillations. Part Ⅱ:The Relationship and a New Approach to the Prediction of El Nio

ABSTRACT The authors explored the connection and transition chains of the Northern Oscillation （NO） and the North Pacific Oscilla tion （NPO）, the Southern Oscillation （SO）, and the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） on the interannual timescale in a companion paper. In this study, the connection between the transition chains of the four oscillations （the NO and NPO, the SO and AAO） and the El Nifio/La Nifia cycle were examined. It was found that during the transitions of the four oscillations, alternate anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers propagated from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific along both sides of the equator. Between the anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers, the zonal wind anomalies also moved eastwardly, favoring the advection of sea surface temperature anomalies from the tropical Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific. When the anti cyclonic anomalies arrived in the Eastern Pacific, the positive phase of NO/SO and La Nifia were established and vice versa. Thus, in 4-6 years, with an entire transition chain of the four oscillations, an E1 Nifio/La Nifia cycle completed. The eastward propagation of the covarying anomalies of the sea level pressure, zonal wind, and sea surface temperature was critical to the transition chains of the four oscillations and the cycle of E1 Nifio/La Nifia. Based on their close link, a new empirical prediction method of the timing of E1 Nifio by the transition chains of the four oscillations was proposed. The assessment provided confidence in the ability of the new method to supply information regarding the long-term variations of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.

Global influenza in cold phase of Pacific Decade Oscillation

Based on the study of the cold phase of the Pacific Decade Oscillation, pandemic influenza is related to climate. The relation of low temperature, Pacific Decade Oscillation, strongest earthquake, Influenza, hurricane and E1 Nino is researched in this study. In the cold period of Pacific Decade Oscillation, the strongest earthquake, hurricane with La Ni＇na, Pandemic Influenza with E1 Nino will occur stronger and stronger. From 1950 to 1976, the strongest dust-storm is connected with Pandemic Influenza one by one. So, dust-storm is one of factors to spread pandemic influenza viruses.

Relationships of Interannual Variability Between the Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 Models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature （SST） between the tropical Pacific （TP） and tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）. The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, Indian Ocean Dipole mode （IOD） and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode （lOB） together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming （cooling） takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an E1 Nifio （La Nifia） in almost all the models. In some models （e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5）, positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models （e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES）.

Perturbed Solving Method for Interdecadal Sea-air Oscillator Model

A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat- terns. This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model. Employing the perturbed method, the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained, and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.

The homotopic mapping method for sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations

The E1 Nifio/La Nifia Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a coupled system of sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method of nonlinear equation for the ENSO model. And based on a class of oscillators of ENSO model, employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of corresponding problem is studied. It is proven from the results that the homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for ENSO model.

The sea-air oscillator model of decadal variations in subtropical cells and equatorial Pacific SST

In this paper a time delay equation for sea-air oscillator model is studied. The aim is to create an approximate solving method of nonlinear equation for sea-air oscillator model. Employing the method of variational iteration, it obtains the approximate solution of corresponding equation. This method is an approximate analytic method, which can be often used for analysing other behaviour of the sea surface temperature anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillator model.

Asymptotic solution of a sea-air oscillator for ENSO mechanism

The EI Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. In this paper, a class of coupled system of the ENSO mechanism is considered. Based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the asymptotic solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the approximate method. It is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific and the thermocline depth anomaly of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current （NEC） to the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height （SSH） observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During E1 Nifio/La Nifia years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15~N, 130~E-160~E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.

Seasonal Evolution of Dominant Modes in South Pacific SST and Relationship with ENSO

A season-reliant empirical orthogonal function （S-EOF） analysis was applied to the seasonal mean SST anomalies （SSTAs） based on the HadISST1 dataset with linear trend removed at every grid point in the South Pacific （60.5°-19.5°S, 139.5°E-60.5°W） during the period 1979-2009. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the dominant modes and their relationships with ENSO were analyzed. The results show that there are two seasonally evolving dominant modes of SSTAs in the South Pacific with interannual and interdeeadal variations; they account for nearly 40% of the total variance. Although the seasonal evolution of spatial patterns of the first S-EOF mode （S-EOF1） did not show remarkable propagation, it decays with season remarkably. The second S-EOF mode （S-EOF2） showed significant seasonal evolution and intensified with season, with distinct characteristics of eastward propagation of the negative SSTAs in southern New Zealand and positive SSTAs southeast of Australia. Both of these two modes have significant relationships with ENSO. These two modes correspond to the post-ENSO and ENSO turnabout years, respectively. The S- EOF1 mode associated with the decay of the eastern Pacific （EP） and the central Pacific （CP） types of ENSO exhibited a more significant relationship with the EP/CP type of E1 Nifio than that with the EP/CP type of La Nifia. The S-EOF2 mode contacted with the EP type of E1 Nifio changing into the EP/CP type of La Nifia showed a more significant connection with the EP/CP type of La Nifia.

Impact of observational MJO forcing on ENSO predictability in the Zebiak-Cane model: PartⅠ.Effect on the maximum prediction error

With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform （CWT） and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation （CNOP） method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.

Climate modulation on sea surface height in China seas

The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.

Correspondence between the ENSO-like state and glacial- interglacial condition during the past 360 kyr

In the warming world, tropical Pacific sea surface temperature （SST） variation has received considerable attention because of its enormous influence on global climate change, particularly the El Nino-Southern Oscillation process. Here, we provide new high-resolution proxy records of the magnesium/ calcium ratio and the oxygen isotope in foraminifera from a core on the Ontong-Java Plateau to reconstruct the SST and hydrological variation in the center of the Western Pacific Warm Pool （WPWP） over the last 360 000 years. In comparison with other Mg/Ca-derived SST and δ18O records, the results suggested that in a relatively stable condition, e.g., the last glacial maximum （LGM） and other glacial periods, the tropical Pacific would adopt a La Nifia-like state, and the Walker and Hadley cycles would be synchronously enhanced. Conversely, El Nino-like conditions could have occurred in the tropical Pacific during fast- changing periods, e.g., the termination and rapidly cooling stages of interglacial periods. In the light of the sensitivity of the Eastern Pacific Cold Tongue （EPCT） and the inertia of the WPWP, we hypothesize an inter-restricted relationship between the WPWP and EPCT, which could control the zonal gradient variation of SST and affect climate change.

Imprint of the ENSO on Rainfall and Latent Heating Variability over the Southern South China Sea from TRMM Observations

Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） datasets revealed a prominent interannual variation in the convective-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern South China Sea （SCS） during the winter monsoon between 1998 and 2010. Although the height of maximum latent heating remained nearly constant at around 7km in all of the years, the year-to- year changes in the magnitudes of maximum latent heating over the region were noticeable. The interannual variations of the convee- tive-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern SCS were highly anti-correlated with the Nifio-3 index, with more （less） rainfall and latent heating during La Nifia （El Nifio） years. Analysis of the large-scale environment revealed that years of active rain- fall and latent heating corresponded to years of large deep convergence and relative humidity at 600hPa. The moisture budget diag- nosis indicated that the interarmual variation of humidity at 600hPa was largely modulated by the vertical moisture advection. The year-to-year changes in rainfall over the southern SCS were mainly caused by the interannual variations of the dynamic component associated with anomalous upward motions in the middle troposphere, while the interannual variations of the thermodynamic com- ponent associated with changes in surface specific humidity played a minor role. Larger latent heating over the southern SCS during La Nifia years may possibly further enhance the local Hadley circulation over the SCS in the wintertime.

Retrieving Multi-Scale Climatic Variations from High Dimensional Time-Series MODIS Green Vegetation Cover in a Tropical/Subtropical Mountainous Island

【Title】There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year （1993-2010） National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature （SST） and simple ocean data assimilation datasets, this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies （SSTAs） that occurred in the South China Sea （SCS） during the mature phase of the E1 Nifio/Southem Oscillation. The most dominant characteristic was that of the out- of-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS, which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection. The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during E1 Nifio episodes. Conversely, it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during E1 Nifio episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.

The Amplitude-Duration Relation of Observed El Nio Events

The authors demonstrate that the E1 Nifio events in the pre- and post-1976 periods show two ampli- tude-duration relations. One is that the stronger E1 Nifio events have longer durations, which is robust for the moderate E1 Nifio events; the other is that the stronger E1 Nifio events have shorter durations but for strong E1 Nifio events. By estimating the sign and amplitude of the nonlinear dynamical heating （NDH） anomalies, the au- thors illustrate that the NDH anomalies are negligible for moderate E1 Nifio events but large for strong E1 Nifio events. In particular, the large NDH anomalies for strong E1 Nifio events are positive during the growth and mature phases, which favor warmer E1 Nifio events. During the decay phase, however, the negative NDH anomalies start to arise and become increasingly significant with the evolution of the E1 Nifio events, in which the negative NDH anomalies dampen the sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） and cause the E1 Nifio events to reach the SST normal state earlier. This pattern suggests that the nonlinearity tends to increase the intensities of strong E1 Nifio events and shorten their duration, which, together with the previous results showing a positive correlation between the strength of E1 Nifio events and the signifi- cance of the effect of nonlinear advection on the events （especially the suppression of nonlinearity on the SSTA during the decay phase）, shows that the strong E1 Nifio events tend to have the amplitude-duration relation of the stronger E1 Nifio events with shorter durations. This result also lends support to the assertion that moderate E1 Nifio events possess the amplitude-duration relation of stronger E1 Nifio events with longer durations.