[目的/意义]在全球气候变暖的大背景下,准确确定冬小麦的适宜播种期对于提高小麦产量、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究旨在对县级镇在气候变暖长时间序列影响下冬小麦适宜播种期进行分析。[方法]本研究以山东省齐河县为研究区域...[目的/意义]在全球气候变暖的大背景下,准确确定冬小麦的适宜播种期对于提高小麦产量、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究旨在对县级镇在气候变暖长时间序列影响下冬小麦适宜播种期进行分析。[方法]本研究以山东省齐河县为研究区域,基于1997—2022年的欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)再分析数据,首先,采用温度阈值法确定稳定通过18、16、14和0℃终日的日期,并从不同小麦品种的适宜播种温度、不同日期播种至越冬前≥0℃的积温、适播期历年日平均气温等关键播期指标对冬小麦适宜播种期进行统计分析;其次,利用叶龄积温法对冬前壮苗所需合适积温的日期进行测算;最后,结合实际生产实践情况,确定气候变暖趋势下齐河县各乡镇冬小麦的适宜播种期。[结果和讨论]从小麦适宜播种温度、播种至小麦越冬停止生长0℃的积温等农业气象指标,以及考虑齐河县种植的冬小麦品种,得出齐河县冬小麦适宜播种期为10月3日—10月16日,最佳播种期为10月5日—10月13日。但具体年份的适播期还需要依据当年的具体情况灵活播种。[结论]研究结果证明了温度阈值法和叶龄积温法在确定冬小麦适宜播种期研究中的可行性,通过温度变化趋势可判断冷冬或暖冬,及时调整播种时间以提高小麦产量,减少温度过高或过低对冬小麦的影响。本研究不仅可以为齐河县冬小麦产量评估提供决策参考,还可以为科学安排农业生产提供重要的理论依据。展开更多
The existence of three well-defined tongue-shaped zones of swell dominance,termed as 'swell pools',in the Pacific,the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans,was reported by Chen et al.(2002)using satellite data.In thi...The existence of three well-defined tongue-shaped zones of swell dominance,termed as 'swell pools',in the Pacific,the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans,was reported by Chen et al.(2002)using satellite data.In this paper,the ECMWF Re-analyses wind wave data,including wind speed,significant wave height,averaged wave period and direction,are applied to verify the existence of these swell pools.The swell indices calculated from wave height,wave age and correlation coefficient are used to identify swell events.The wave age swell index can be more appropriately related to physical processes compared to the other two swell indices.Based on the ECMWF data the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans are confirmed,but the expected swell pool in the Indian Ocean is not pronounced.The seasonal variations of global and hemispherical swell indices are investigated,and the argument that swells in the pools seemed to originate mostly from the winter hemisphere is supported by the seasonal variation of the averaged wave direction.The northward bending of the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans in summer is not revealed by the ECMWF data.The swell pool in the Indian Ocean and the summer northward bending of the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlan-tic Oceans need to be further verified by other datasets.展开更多
Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present clim...Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis. Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand, ECMWF may describe some climate characteristics more realistically than NCEP. Xu et al.pointed out that NCEP data are of uncertainty when used for studying long-term trends of climate change. By comparing temperatures and pressures from NCEP and observation, it can be seen that NCEP data show higher reliability in the east and lower-latitudes of China than in its west and higher latitudes, NCEP temperature is of more reality than pressure and NCEP data after 1979 are closer to the observations than before. Yang et al.also revealed some serious problems of NCEP data in the north of subtropical Asia. Regional differences of NCEP data in representation are also explored by other studiest. As for seasonal variability, NCEP simulates relatively real conditions of Chinese summer and annual mean but winter data are relatively bad, as in comparisons of NCEP data wity China surface station observations by Zhao et al.Moreover, Trenberth and Stepaniak showed that ECMWF data had better energy budgets than NCEP data for pure pressure coordinates are adopted by ECMWF. Renfrew et al. compared NCF, P data to ECMWF data in terms of surface fluxes and the results indicate that the time series of surface sensible and latent heating fluxes from ECMWF are 13% and 10% larger than the observations and those from NCEP would be 51% and 27% larger than the observations, respectively. So, Renfrew et al. suggested that it be more appropriate to drive ocean models by ECMWF data. Based on comparisons of multiple elements by some scientists, it seems that ECMWF data are better than NCEP data on global, hemispheric and regional scales. Whereas, reanalysis have big errors in some regions in contrast to observations, especially the variables related to humidity. Since that, researchers should compare the two sets of data and select a better one according to specific problems.展开更多
New satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes are performed by using Wind Sat wind speed, Wind Sat sea surface temperature, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting（ECMWF） air humidity, and E...New satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes are performed by using Wind Sat wind speed, Wind Sat sea surface temperature, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting（ECMWF） air humidity, and ECMWF air temperature from 2004 to 2014. The 55 moored buoys are used to validate them by using the 30 min and 25 km collocation window. Furthermore, the objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes（OAFlux） products and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 2（NCEP2） products are also used for global comparisons. The mean biases of sensible and latent heat fluxes between Wind Sat flux results and buoy flux data are –0.39 and –8.09 W/m^2, respectively. In addition, the rootmean-square（RMS） errors of the sensible and latent heat fluxes between them are 5.53 and 24.69 W/m^2,respectively. The RMS errors of sensible and latent heat fluxes are observed to gradually increase with an increasing buoy wind speed. The difference shows different characteristics with an increasing sea surface temperature, air humidity, and air temperature. The zonal average latent fluxes have some high regions which are mainly located in the trade wind zones where strong winds carry dry air in January, and the maximum value centers are found in the eastern waters of Japan and on the US east coast. Overall, the seasonal variability is pronounced in the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. The three sensible and latent heat fluxes have similar latitudinal dependencies; however, some differences are found in some local regions.展开更多
In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlati...In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.展开更多
基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五...基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)逐小时2 m气温分析的日统计数据(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温)进行对比评估。结果显示:(1)HRCLDAS/ERA5-Land日统计平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的均方根误差分别为0.1/1.2℃、0.6/1.9℃、0.4/1.7℃,表明HRCLDAS具有更高的精度,且在不同地理区域、不同海拔高度的表现均优于ERA5-Land,大部地区的偏差(-0.5~0.5℃)远低于ERA5-Land(-2.0~2.0℃)。(2)两套数据对高温及寒潮过程的监测能力对比评估表明,HRCLDAS能够捕捉到大部分的高温以及寒潮过程,其与观测的高温日数及寒潮日数空间分布较为相似,但对影响范围存在一定的低估;ERA5-Land则只能监测到部分高温及寒潮过程,并对高温日数与寒潮日数存在严重的低估。展开更多
文摘[目的/意义]在全球气候变暖的大背景下,准确确定冬小麦的适宜播种期对于提高小麦产量、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究旨在对县级镇在气候变暖长时间序列影响下冬小麦适宜播种期进行分析。[方法]本研究以山东省齐河县为研究区域,基于1997—2022年的欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)再分析数据,首先,采用温度阈值法确定稳定通过18、16、14和0℃终日的日期,并从不同小麦品种的适宜播种温度、不同日期播种至越冬前≥0℃的积温、适播期历年日平均气温等关键播期指标对冬小麦适宜播种期进行统计分析;其次,利用叶龄积温法对冬前壮苗所需合适积温的日期进行测算;最后,结合实际生产实践情况,确定气候变暖趋势下齐河县各乡镇冬小麦的适宜播种期。[结果和讨论]从小麦适宜播种温度、播种至小麦越冬停止生长0℃的积温等农业气象指标,以及考虑齐河县种植的冬小麦品种,得出齐河县冬小麦适宜播种期为10月3日—10月16日,最佳播种期为10月5日—10月13日。但具体年份的适播期还需要依据当年的具体情况灵活播种。[结论]研究结果证明了温度阈值法和叶龄积温法在确定冬小麦适宜播种期研究中的可行性,通过温度变化趋势可判断冷冬或暖冬,及时调整播种时间以提高小麦产量,减少温度过高或过低对冬小麦的影响。本研究不仅可以为齐河县冬小麦产量评估提供决策参考,还可以为科学安排农业生产提供重要的理论依据。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 40830959 and 40921004)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (No. 2011BAC03B01)
文摘The existence of three well-defined tongue-shaped zones of swell dominance,termed as 'swell pools',in the Pacific,the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans,was reported by Chen et al.(2002)using satellite data.In this paper,the ECMWF Re-analyses wind wave data,including wind speed,significant wave height,averaged wave period and direction,are applied to verify the existence of these swell pools.The swell indices calculated from wave height,wave age and correlation coefficient are used to identify swell events.The wave age swell index can be more appropriately related to physical processes compared to the other two swell indices.Based on the ECMWF data the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans are confirmed,but the expected swell pool in the Indian Ocean is not pronounced.The seasonal variations of global and hemispherical swell indices are investigated,and the argument that swells in the pools seemed to originate mostly from the winter hemisphere is supported by the seasonal variation of the averaged wave direction.The northward bending of the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans in summer is not revealed by the ECMWF data.The swell pool in the Indian Ocean and the summer northward bending of the swell pools in the Pacific and the Atlan-tic Oceans need to be further verified by other datasets.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40505019) Natural Science Foundation of GuangdongProvince (5300001) Open Foundation of Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA
文摘Due to long-term time series and many elements, reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis. Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF. On the other hand, ECMWF may describe some climate characteristics more realistically than NCEP. Xu et al.pointed out that NCEP data are of uncertainty when used for studying long-term trends of climate change. By comparing temperatures and pressures from NCEP and observation, it can be seen that NCEP data show higher reliability in the east and lower-latitudes of China than in its west and higher latitudes, NCEP temperature is of more reality than pressure and NCEP data after 1979 are closer to the observations than before. Yang et al.also revealed some serious problems of NCEP data in the north of subtropical Asia. Regional differences of NCEP data in representation are also explored by other studiest. As for seasonal variability, NCEP simulates relatively real conditions of Chinese summer and annual mean but winter data are relatively bad, as in comparisons of NCEP data wity China surface station observations by Zhao et al.Moreover, Trenberth and Stepaniak showed that ECMWF data had better energy budgets than NCEP data for pure pressure coordinates are adopted by ECMWF. Renfrew et al. compared NCF, P data to ECMWF data in terms of surface fluxes and the results indicate that the time series of surface sensible and latent heating fluxes from ECMWF are 13% and 10% larger than the observations and those from NCEP would be 51% and 27% larger than the observations, respectively. So, Renfrew et al. suggested that it be more appropriate to drive ocean models by ECMWF data. Based on comparisons of multiple elements by some scientists, it seems that ECMWF data are better than NCEP data on global, hemispheric and regional scales. Whereas, reanalysis have big errors in some regions in contrast to observations, especially the variables related to humidity. Since that, researchers should compare the two sets of data and select a better one according to specific problems.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41576171
文摘New satellite-derived latent and sensible heat fluxes are performed by using Wind Sat wind speed, Wind Sat sea surface temperature, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting（ECMWF） air humidity, and ECMWF air temperature from 2004 to 2014. The 55 moored buoys are used to validate them by using the 30 min and 25 km collocation window. Furthermore, the objectively analyzed air-sea heat fluxes（OAFlux） products and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis 2（NCEP2） products are also used for global comparisons. The mean biases of sensible and latent heat fluxes between Wind Sat flux results and buoy flux data are –0.39 and –8.09 W/m^2, respectively. In addition, the rootmean-square（RMS） errors of the sensible and latent heat fluxes between them are 5.53 and 24.69 W/m^2,respectively. The RMS errors of sensible and latent heat fluxes are observed to gradually increase with an increasing buoy wind speed. The difference shows different characteristics with an increasing sea surface temperature, air humidity, and air temperature. The zonal average latent fluxes have some high regions which are mainly located in the trade wind zones where strong winds carry dry air in January, and the maximum value centers are found in the eastern waters of Japan and on the US east coast. Overall, the seasonal variability is pronounced in the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean. The three sensible and latent heat fluxes have similar latitudinal dependencies; however, some differences are found in some local regions.
文摘In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.
文摘河南连续运行参考系统(Continuously Operating Reference Stations,CORS)有63个测站,但仅有6个测站安装有气象传感器,而且数据极其不完整,而气象数据对于(Global Positioning System,GPS)反演水汽十分重要。针对这一问题,研究了利用欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)的再分析资料插值河南测站的气象参数和大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)。研究结果表明:插值的气压平均偏差和均方根误差在1 hpa以内,气温平均偏差和均方根误差在5 K左右;针对气温插值结果偏差稍大的问题,对插值温度进行改正,能提高50%左右的精度;将实测气象参数的GPS/PWV和无线电探空的Radio/PWV作为真值,证明了利用插值的气象参数估计河南地区GPS/PWV的精度完全满足需求,进一步提高河南CORS系统在气象方面的应用价值。
文摘基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)逐小时2 m气温分析的日统计数据(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温)进行对比评估。结果显示:(1)HRCLDAS/ERA5-Land日统计平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的均方根误差分别为0.1/1.2℃、0.6/1.9℃、0.4/1.7℃,表明HRCLDAS具有更高的精度,且在不同地理区域、不同海拔高度的表现均优于ERA5-Land,大部地区的偏差(-0.5~0.5℃)远低于ERA5-Land(-2.0~2.0℃)。(2)两套数据对高温及寒潮过程的监测能力对比评估表明,HRCLDAS能够捕捉到大部分的高温以及寒潮过程,其与观测的高温日数及寒潮日数空间分布较为相似,但对影响范围存在一定的低估;ERA5-Land则只能监测到部分高温及寒潮过程,并对高温日数与寒潮日数存在严重的低估。
