A statistic model of predicting El Nio based on the multiple regression analysis is developed by using sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3 region (5°S-5°N), 90-150°W) as a predictant and the ...A statistic model of predicting El Nio based on the multiple regression analysis is developed by using sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3 region (5°S-5°N), 90-150°W) as a predictant and the Asian meridional circulation index as the predictors. This model cannot only simulate most of El Nio during 1950-1980 (except for El Nio in 1965), but also hindcast 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1991/1992 and 1994 El Nio and predict 1997/1998 El Nio six months in advance. At the same time, three different sample series (periods of 1950-1969, 1970-1989, 1950-1989) are used to examine the stability and skill of the statistic model. The models have successfully hindcasted and predicted El Nio before and after the selected samples except for the 1965 El Nio. In addition, the forecast in the El Nio year is clearly superior to that in the following year. The model prediction reaches the lowest skill during March to April.展开更多
文摘A statistic model of predicting El Nio based on the multiple regression analysis is developed by using sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3 region (5°S-5°N), 90-150°W) as a predictant and the Asian meridional circulation index as the predictors. This model cannot only simulate most of El Nio during 1950-1980 (except for El Nio in 1965), but also hindcast 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1991/1992 and 1994 El Nio and predict 1997/1998 El Nio six months in advance. At the same time, three different sample series (periods of 1950-1969, 1970-1989, 1950-1989) are used to examine the stability and skill of the statistic model. The models have successfully hindcasted and predicted El Nio before and after the selected samples except for the 1965 El Nio. In addition, the forecast in the El Nio year is clearly superior to that in the following year. The model prediction reaches the lowest skill during March to April.
