This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper...This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.展开更多
A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropica...A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.展开更多
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Ex...The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature v5 (ERSSTv5) climate model. The M-band discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) are utilized to capture multi-scale temporal and spatial features effectively. Long-short term memory (LSTM) autoencoders are also used to capture significant spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data. Deep learning techniques such as the convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used with non-image and image time series data. We also employ parallel computing in a various support vector regression (SVR) approximators to enhance accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that this hybrid model effectively identifies key precursors and patterns associated with El Niño events, surpassing traditional forecasting methods. Results of the hybrid model produce a correlation of 0.93 in 4-month lagged forecasting of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)—indicative of high success rate of the model. Future work will focus on evaluating the model’s performance using additional reanalysis datasets and other methods of deep learning to further refine its robustness and applicability. We propose wavelet-based deep learning models which have potential to shine a light on achieving United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’s goal 13: “Climate Action”, as an innovation with potential in improving time series image forecasting in all fields.展开更多
The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relat...The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.展开更多
This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set wit...This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.展开更多
The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of D Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere : The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particul...The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of D Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere : The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the EI Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting EI Nino event through the air-sea interaction.展开更多
Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system.Although many previous studies have shown that the El N...Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system.Although many previous studies have shown that the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has significant effects on the water vapor content of the stratosphere in terms of the annual or seasonal mean,a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal evolution of these effects is still required.Using reanalysis data and satellite observations,we carried out a composite analysis of the seasonal evolution of stratospheric water vapor during El Ni?o/La Ni?a peaks in winter and decays in spring.The ENSO has a distinct hysteresis effect on water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere.The El Ni?o/La Ni?a events moisten/dry out the tropical lower stratosphere in both winter and spring,whereas this wetting/dehydration effect is more significant in spring.This pattern is due to a warmer temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o spring phase,which causes more water vapor to enter the stratosphere,and vice versa for La Ni?a.This delayed warming/cooling in the lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o/La Ni?a decay in spring leads to the seasonal evolution of ENSO effects on water vapor in the lower stratosphere.展开更多
The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model i...The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for the ENSO model.展开更多
El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive an...El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.展开更多
A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic sol...A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the related physical quantities.展开更多
The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated us...The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations.The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean,which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO.In comparison,lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant,suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge.A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans.The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15%depending on the baroclinic modes.The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so.Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century,which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.展开更多
Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a s...Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.展开更多
The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A n...The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A necessary and sufficient condition to justify whether an initial (boundary) problem is well posed or not is also obtained.展开更多
This study investigated the interannual wave climate variability in the Taiwan Strait(TS) and its relationship to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) phenomenon using a high-resolution numerical wave model. The res...This study investigated the interannual wave climate variability in the Taiwan Strait(TS) and its relationship to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) phenomenon using a high-resolution numerical wave model. The results showed the interannual variability of significant wave height(SWH) in the TS, which exhibits significant spatial and seasonal variations, is typically weaker than the seasonal variability. The standard deviation of the interannual SWH anomaly(SWHA) showed similar spatial variations in the TS throughout the year, being largest in the middle of the strait and decreasing shoreward, except in summer, when there was no local maximum in the middle of the TS. Further analyses proved the interannual wave climate variability in the TS is controlled predominantly by tropical cyclone activities in summer and by the northeasterly monsoon winds in winter. Furthermore, the interannual SWHA in the TS was found correlated highly negatively with the ENSO phenomenon. This relationship mainly derives from that during the northeasterly monsoon seasons. During the northeasterly monsoon seasons in El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, the negative(positive) SWHA in the TS derives from weakened(strengthened) northeasterly monsoon winds induced by a lower-tropospheric anomalous anticyclone(cyclone) over the western Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. During the southwesterly monsoon season in El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, however, the SWH in the TS tends to increase(decrease) anomalously because of intensified(weakened) TC activities over the western North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas.展开更多
文摘This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42030410)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202403)supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST。
文摘A 110-year ensemble simulation of an ocean general circulation model(OGCM)was analyzed to identify the modulation of salinity interdecadal variability on El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)amplitude in the tropical Pacific during 1901-2010.The simulating results show that sea surface salinity(SSS)variation in the region exhibits notable and coherent interdecadal variability signal,which is closely associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation(IPO).As salinity increases or reduces,the SSS modulations on ENSO amplitude during its warm/cold events vary asymmetrically with positive/negative IPO phases.Physically,salinity interdecadal variability can enhance or reduce ENSO-related conditions in upper-ocean stratification,contributing noticeably to ENSO variability.Salinity anomalies associated with the mixed layer depth and barrier layer thickness can modulate ENSO amplitude during positive and negative IPO phases,resulting in the asymmetry of sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly in the tropical Pacific.During positive IPO phases,SSS interdecadal variability contributes positively to El Niño amplitude but negatively to La Niña amplitude by enhancing or reducing SSS interannual variability,and vice versa during negative IPO phases.Quantitatively,the results indicate that the modulation of the ENSO amplitude by the SSS interdecadal variability is 15%-28%during negative IPO phases and 30%-20%during positive IPO phases,respectively.Evidently,the SSS interdecadal variability associated with IPO and its modulation on ENSO amplitude in the tropical Pacific are among factors essentially contributing ENSO diversity.
文摘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a significant climate phenomenon with far-reaching impacts on global weather patterns, ecosystems, and economies. This study aims to enhance ENSO forecasting with the Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature v5 (ERSSTv5) climate model. The M-band discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) are utilized to capture multi-scale temporal and spatial features effectively. Long-short term memory (LSTM) autoencoders are also used to capture significant spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data. Deep learning techniques such as the convolutional neural networks (CNN) are used with non-image and image time series data. We also employ parallel computing in a various support vector regression (SVR) approximators to enhance accuracy. Preliminary results indicate that this hybrid model effectively identifies key precursors and patterns associated with El Niño events, surpassing traditional forecasting methods. Results of the hybrid model produce a correlation of 0.93 in 4-month lagged forecasting of the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)—indicative of high success rate of the model. Future work will focus on evaluating the model’s performance using additional reanalysis datasets and other methods of deep learning to further refine its robustness and applicability. We propose wavelet-based deep learning models which have potential to shine a light on achieving United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’s goal 13: “Climate Action”, as an innovation with potential in improving time series image forecasting in all fields.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41976027)。
文摘The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.
基金US National Natural Science Foundation, No.0624359 Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KSCX1-YW-09+5 种基金 No.KZCX2-YW-305-2 National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B06 No.2008BAK50B06 No.2008BAK47B02 No.2008BAC44B04 China State Major Project for Water Pollution Control and Management, No.2009ZX07106-001 Acknowledgement We are grateful to FANG Yu and YAN Bangyou from the Mountain, River and Lake Office of Jiangxi and WANG Xiaohong, Deputy Director General of the Department of Science and Technology of Jiangxi Provincial Government for their assistance on this project.
文摘This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.
文摘The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of D Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere : The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the EI Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting EI Nino event through the air-sea interaction.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning,and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters(2018YFC1506006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875108)
文摘Water vapor in the stratosphere makes a significant contribution to global climate change by altering the radiative energy budget of the Earth’s climate system.Although many previous studies have shown that the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)has significant effects on the water vapor content of the stratosphere in terms of the annual or seasonal mean,a comprehensive analysis of the seasonal evolution of these effects is still required.Using reanalysis data and satellite observations,we carried out a composite analysis of the seasonal evolution of stratospheric water vapor during El Ni?o/La Ni?a peaks in winter and decays in spring.The ENSO has a distinct hysteresis effect on water vapor in the tropical lower stratosphere.The El Ni?o/La Ni?a events moisten/dry out the tropical lower stratosphere in both winter and spring,whereas this wetting/dehydration effect is more significant in spring.This pattern is due to a warmer temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o spring phase,which causes more water vapor to enter the stratosphere,and vice versa for La Ni?a.This delayed warming/cooling in the lower stratosphere during the El Ni?o/La Ni?a decay in spring leads to the seasonal evolution of ENSO effects on water vapor in the lower stratosphere.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos40679016 and 10471039)the State Key Program for Basic Research of China(Grant Nos2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304)+2 种基金the Key Basic Research Foundation ofthe Chinese Academy of Sciences,China(Grant No KZCX3-SW-221)partially by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of China(Grant No N.E03004)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China(Grant No Y60628)
文摘The EI Nimo and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific sea-air interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving nonlinear equations for the ENSO model is proposed. And based on a class of oscillator of the ENSO model and by employing the method of homotopic mapping, the approximate solution of equations for the corresponding ENSO model is studied. It is proved from the results that homotopic method can be used for analysing the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the sea-air oscillator for the ENSO model.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos.2017YFC1404102,2017YFC1404100)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDB 40000000,XDB 42000000)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.41690122(41690120),41705082,41421005)the Shandong Taishan Scholarship,the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos.2018M640659,2019M662453)YU Yongqiang is jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDA 19060102.XDB 42000000)REN Hong-Li is jointly supported by the China National Science Foundation (No.41975094)the China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (No.2018YFC1506004)
文摘El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40876010)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China (Grant No.Y6110502)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of the Education Bureau of Anhui Province of China (Grant Nos.KJ2011A135 and KJ2011Z003)the LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund of Chinathe Foundation of E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission,China (Grant No.E03004)
文摘A sea-air oscillator model is studied using the time delay theory. The aim is to find an asymptotic solving method for the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) model. Employing the perturbed method, an asymptotic solution of the corresponding problem is obtained. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly and the related physical quantities.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2012CB956001)the CMA(No.GYHY201306018)+4 种基金the State Oceanic Administration(SOA)(No.GASI-03-01-01-05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.41421005,41176019,U1406401)the Shandong Provincial Project(No.2014GJJS0101)the Strategic Priority Project of CAS(Nos.XDA11010301,XDA11010102,XDA11010205)the QNLM Project(No.2016ASKJ04)
文摘The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations. The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO. In comparison, lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant, suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge. A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15% depending on the baroclinic modes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so. Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century, which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.The dynamics of the teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)in the tropical Indian Ocean and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)in the tropical Pacific Ocean at the time lag of one year are investigated using lag correlations between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean in fall and those in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in the following winter-fall seasons in the observations and in high-resolution global ocean model simulations.The lag correlations suggest that the IOD-forced interannual transport anomalies of the Indonesian Throughflow generate thermocline anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean,which propagate to the east to induce ocean-atmosphere coupled evolution leading to ENSO.In comparison,lag correlations between the surface zonal wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific in fall and the Indo-Pacific oceanic anomalies at time lags longer than a season are all insignificant,suggesting the short memory of the atmospheric bridge.A linear continuously stratified model is used to investigate the dynamics of the oceanic connection between the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans.The experiments suggest that interannual equatorial Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean propagate into the equatorial Pacific Ocean through the Makassar Strait and the eastern Indonesian seas with a penetration rate of about 10%–15%depending on the baroclinic modes.The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found to get stronger in the past century or so.Diagnoses of the CMIP5 model simulations suggest that the increased teleconnection is associated with decreased Indonesian Throughflow transports in the recent century,which is found sensitive to the global warming forcing.
文摘Atmospheric physics is a very complicated natural phenomenon and needs to simplify its basic models for the sea-air oscillator. And it is solved by using the approximate method. The variational iteration method is a simple and valid method. In this paper the coupled system for a sea-air oscillator model of interdecadal climate fluctuations is considered. Firstly, through introducing a set of functions, and computing the variations, the Lagrange multipliers are obtained. And then, the generalized expressions of variational iteration are constructed. Finally, through selecting appropriate initial iteration from the iteration expressions, the approximations of solution for the sea-air oscillator model are solved successively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.90411006)
文摘The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A necessary and sufficient condition to justify whether an initial (boundary) problem is well posed or not is also obtained.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41506008,41476002)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2015DQ006)the Shandong Provincial Key Research and Development Program(No.2016ZDJS09A02)
文摘This study investigated the interannual wave climate variability in the Taiwan Strait(TS) and its relationship to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) phenomenon using a high-resolution numerical wave model. The results showed the interannual variability of significant wave height(SWH) in the TS, which exhibits significant spatial and seasonal variations, is typically weaker than the seasonal variability. The standard deviation of the interannual SWH anomaly(SWHA) showed similar spatial variations in the TS throughout the year, being largest in the middle of the strait and decreasing shoreward, except in summer, when there was no local maximum in the middle of the TS. Further analyses proved the interannual wave climate variability in the TS is controlled predominantly by tropical cyclone activities in summer and by the northeasterly monsoon winds in winter. Furthermore, the interannual SWHA in the TS was found correlated highly negatively with the ENSO phenomenon. This relationship mainly derives from that during the northeasterly monsoon seasons. During the northeasterly monsoon seasons in El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, the negative(positive) SWHA in the TS derives from weakened(strengthened) northeasterly monsoon winds induced by a lower-tropospheric anomalous anticyclone(cyclone) over the western Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. During the southwesterly monsoon season in El Ni?o(La Ni?a) years, however, the SWH in the TS tends to increase(decrease) anomalously because of intensified(weakened) TC activities over the western North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas.