This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper...This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.展开更多
Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System...Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model and weather data spanning 81 years, we assessed the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the grain yields of these crops in the Llano Estacado region of the southern US as affected by cowpea and wheat planting dates and N application rate. Simulated results showed that the El Niño phase of ENSO produced about 30% more yields of mono-cropped cowpea than those produced under the La Niña phase, especially with the cowpeas planted in July. The cowpea yields under El Niño were about 10% more than the 81-year average normal yield, whereas those under La Niña were about 20% less. At the N rates of 0, 50, and 100 kg·ha<sup>−1</sup>, regardless of wheat planting dates, the El Niño years produced, respectively, about 8%, 40%, and 60% higher wheat yields than those produced in the La Niña years, and about 5%, 20%, and 27% more than the 81-year average normal yield. In the La Niña years, the wheat yields at 0, 50, and 100 kg N ha<sup>−1 </sup>were, respectively, about 5%, 15%, and 20% less than the normal yield with similar N levels. The impact of ENSO on wheat yields under cowpea-wheat double-cropping systems was significant, especially for the wheat crops planted on October 15 (October 30) or later following the cowpea crops planted in June (July). At zero N, the mono-cropped wheat yields were not impacted by ENSO due to N limitation. However, the double-cropped wheat yields were impacted by ENSO even when no N fertilizer was applied due to high soil N status caused by N transfer from cowpea stover residues and roots. Results indicated that management strategies need to be attentive to ENSO forecasts and adjust potential planting dates and N application rates with the ENSO phase to avert risks of crop failure and economic loss.展开更多
El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed accord...El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.展开更多
Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was us...Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere...The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.展开更多
利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系...利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系。结果表明:(1)1970—2019年河南省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,其中年均温以0.24℃/10a的速率递增,且春季气温增温速率最大,冬季气温增温速率最小。(2)过去50年,河南省的气温变化与ENSO事件的强度存在一定的相关关系,20世纪90年代以来,随着厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的增多和强度的加大,对应的河南省气温也显著增加。(3)在ENSO事件发生年份,河南省气温变化与SSTA值呈现比较明显的相关关系,且存在一定的滞后性。因此,河南省在强ENSO事件发生的当年或次年易发生极端灾害事件,需要提高警惕,加强防范。展开更多
The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A n...The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A necessary and sufficient condition to justify whether an initial （boundary） problem is well posed or not is also obtained.展开更多
通过分析近40年来出现的ENSO事件对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流活动的影响可知,E lN in^o与LaN in^a对其的影响正好相反,且E lN in^o的影响大于La N in^a的影响。E lN in^o年,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏少的概率均较大,泥石流活动减...通过分析近40年来出现的ENSO事件对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流活动的影响可知,E lN in^o与LaN in^a对其的影响正好相反,且E lN in^o的影响大于La N in^a的影响。E lN in^o年,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏少的概率均较大,泥石流活动减弱的倾向明显;La N in^a年,虽有一定的对应关系,但不如E l N in^o年明显,且影响更复杂一些,总的来说,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏多或持平的概率较大。展开更多
文摘This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.
文摘Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model and weather data spanning 81 years, we assessed the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the grain yields of these crops in the Llano Estacado region of the southern US as affected by cowpea and wheat planting dates and N application rate. Simulated results showed that the El Niño phase of ENSO produced about 30% more yields of mono-cropped cowpea than those produced under the La Niña phase, especially with the cowpeas planted in July. The cowpea yields under El Niño were about 10% more than the 81-year average normal yield, whereas those under La Niña were about 20% less. At the N rates of 0, 50, and 100 kg·ha<sup>−1</sup>, regardless of wheat planting dates, the El Niño years produced, respectively, about 8%, 40%, and 60% higher wheat yields than those produced in the La Niña years, and about 5%, 20%, and 27% more than the 81-year average normal yield. In the La Niña years, the wheat yields at 0, 50, and 100 kg N ha<sup>−1 </sup>were, respectively, about 5%, 15%, and 20% less than the normal yield with similar N levels. The impact of ENSO on wheat yields under cowpea-wheat double-cropping systems was significant, especially for the wheat crops planted on October 15 (October 30) or later following the cowpea crops planted in June (July). At zero N, the mono-cropped wheat yields were not impacted by ENSO due to N limitation. However, the double-cropped wheat yields were impacted by ENSO even when no N fertilizer was applied due to high soil N status caused by N transfer from cowpea stover residues and roots. Results indicated that management strategies need to be attentive to ENSO forecasts and adjust potential planting dates and N application rates with the ENSO phase to avert risks of crop failure and economic loss.
基金Knowledge Innovation Project of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute of CASNo.210100+3 种基金 Knowledge Innovation Project of CASNo.KZCX1-10-0603 KZCX2-301
文摘El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.
基金supported by the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-218)the National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403606)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40821092)
文摘Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies produccd on monthly to interannual time scales by the complex general circulation model (GCM) of the center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Interactions (C.O.L.A.) at low (R15) resolutions. The model is integraed using observed sea surface temperature (SST) for ten years 1979 through 1988. The model simulates generally realistic wind stress anomaly (WSA). The model-generated data set of WSA was used to force the Zebiax Cane ocean model (ZCOM) for ten years. The modeled (SST) anomalies were compared to the observed SST anomalies. The ZCOM simulation shows realistic 1982/83 and 1986/87 warm episodes along the equator, but could produce less realistic 1984/85and 1988/89 cold episodes along the equator due to lack of wind stress forcing in the mean model. Time series of the NINO3 index (measuring the SST anomaly in the mid-eastern Pacific) is realistic for the ZCOM simulation.
文摘利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系。结果表明:(1)1970—2019年河南省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,其中年均温以0.24℃/10a的速率递增,且春季气温增温速率最大,冬季气温增温速率最小。(2)过去50年,河南省的气温变化与ENSO事件的强度存在一定的相关关系,20世纪90年代以来,随着厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的增多和强度的加大,对应的河南省气温也显著增加。(3)在ENSO事件发生年份,河南省气温变化与SSTA值呈现比较明显的相关关系,且存在一定的滞后性。因此,河南省在强ENSO事件发生的当年或次年易发生极端灾害事件,需要提高警惕,加强防范。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.90411006)
文摘The system of equation discussed in this paper is a model that describes the phenomena of El Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. The stability of this model is studied with the method of stratification theory. A necessary and sufficient condition to justify whether an initial （boundary） problem is well posed or not is also obtained.
文摘通过分析近40年来出现的ENSO事件对云南东川蒋家沟泥石流活动的影响可知,E lN in^o与LaN in^a对其的影响正好相反,且E lN in^o的影响大于La N in^a的影响。E lN in^o年,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏少的概率均较大,泥石流活动减弱的倾向明显;La N in^a年,虽有一定的对应关系,但不如E l N in^o年明显,且影响更复杂一些,总的来说,泥石流年发生频次、径流量和输沙量偏多或持平的概率较大。
