基于REOF的两种卫星降水产品(IMERG和MSWEP)在金沙江流域降水分区尺度精度评估

高时空分辨率降水产品的精度评估是卫星降水用于水文气象干旱等研究的前提。本研究提出在降水分区尺度下评估IMERG和MSWEP两种卫星降水产品的精度,并与不分区尺度(即流域尺度)进行比较。首先采用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)对金沙江流域(JSB)进行降水分区,通过贡献率得出8个分区较为适合。然后识别降水的空间分布特征,发现2种降水产品都可以很好地捕捉降水呈现出的从上游到下游逐渐增加的趋势。最后在日尺度、降水发生概率和极端降水探测能力3个方面对降水产品在分区尺度和不分区尺度的性能进行评估。结果表明,在日尺度上,MSWEP的精度在多数降水分区优于IMERG,被推荐5次(1、3、6、7和8区),集中在流域的中游。同时流域尺度也推荐MSWEP。在降水事件发生概率方面,MSWEP能再现不同等级降水强度的概率密度分布,但过高估计0.1~1 mm/d降水事件的发生概率;而IMERG过高估计小于0.1 mm/d降水事件的概率。在极端降水探测能力方面,流域尺度的KGE值都是正值,且IMERG优于MSWEP,但分区尺度上,KGE值在部分降水分区中存在负值,表明IMERG和MSWEP均不能很好地探测出该区的极端降水事件。本研究成果表明降水分区尺度是必需的,能够更加精细地评估降水产品。研究结果可为具有类似气候条件的卫星降水评估提供参考。

基于EOF的1951-2020年东亚季风区降水特征及其对夏季风不同配置的响应研究

东亚季风区夏季降水受季风影响显著,不同季风配置通过影响区域水汽输送,在东亚季风区形成不同的降水格局,降水格局的变化容易引起旱涝灾害的发生。本文基于经验正交函数(EOF)分析,利用全球降水气候中心(GPCC)降水资料、美国国家环境预测中心/大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料和不同夏季风指数,分析了1951-2020年东亚季风区夏季降水格局,进一步结合相关分析、水汽通量分析等,研究了4种夏季风强弱不同配置对东亚季风区夏季降水的影响。结果表明:(1)1951-2020年东亚季风区降水经历了先减少后增加的变化。EOF分析较好地展现了东亚季风区夏季降水的时空分布,东亚季风区夏季降水主要表现为南北向“-、+、-”的三极型分布与南北方降水反相变化的偶极型特征;东亚季风区夏季降水异常主要发生在三极型降水结构的相位转换上,其次是偶极型的相位转换;(2)东亚季风区夏季降水异常是东亚季风、南亚季风、西风环流以及西太平洋季风等系统共同作用的结果。导致东亚季风区降水异常增加(减少)的季风配置主要为配置1:西太平洋季风强,东亚季风和西风弱(配置2:西风强,东亚季风和南亚季风弱);(3)配置1时,西太副高偏南偏西,中高纬形成西风槽,季风区南方季风较强,容易通过切变线以及抬升作用在季风区中部形成降水,导致异常降水增加,配置2时,西风强劲,南方水汽动力不足,无法深入大陆,造成异常降水减少。本文研究结果为气候变化背景下,探究东亚季风区异常降水机理提供理论基础,也为应对区域极端降水事件以及旱涝灾害防治工作提供重要的科学参考依据。

Anisotropic time-dependent behaviors of shale under direct shearing and associated empirical creep models

Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.

基于EOF的江苏省多年降雨和气温时空分布特征

基于1950—2022年江苏省降雨和气温数据,采用EOF方法分析地区降雨和气温的时空分布特征。结果表明,73年间江苏年均降雨呈整体一致性,高值区位于宁镇扬中部及常州、无锡等地区;地区气温变化趋势整体一致性较高,江南和江北地区的差异逐渐缩小;地区降雨及气温变化与城市化关系密切。江苏省整体降雨量近73年呈减少趋势,气温呈逐年上升趋势,城市化改变下垫面、产生热岛效应影响降雨及气温变化。该研究为地区降雨和气温预测提供借鉴。

Empirical likelihood for spatial cross-sectional data models with matrix exponential spatial specification

In this paper,we study spatial cross-sectional data models in the form of matrix exponential spatial specification(MESS),where MESS appears in both dependent and error terms.The empirical likelihood(EL)ratio statistics are established for the parameters of the MESS model.It is shown that the limiting distributions of EL ratio statistics follow chi-square distributions,which are used to construct the confidence regions of model parameters.Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the performances of confidence regions based on EL method and normal approximation method.

Assessment of the three representative empirical models for zenith tropospheric delay(ZTD)using the CMONOC data

The precise correction of atmospheric zenith tropospheric delay(ZTD)is significant for the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)performance regarding positioning accuracy and convergence time.In the past decades,many empirical ZTD models based on whether the gridded or scattered ZTD products have been proposed and widely used in the GNSS positioning applications.But there is no comprehensive evaluation of these models for the whole China region,which features complicated topography and climate.In this study,we completely assess the typical empirical models,the IGGtropSH model(gridded,non-meteorology),the SHAtropE model(scattered,non-meteorology),and the GPT3 model(gridded,meteorology)using the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China(CMONOC)network.In general,the results show that the three models share consistent performance with RMSE/bias of 37.45/1.63,37.13/2.20,and 38.27/1.34 mm for the GPT3,SHAtropE and IGGtropSH model,respectively.However,the models had a distinct performance regarding geographical distribution,elevation,seasonal variations,and daily variation.In the southeastern region of China,RMSE values are around 50 mm,which are much higher than that in the western region,approximately 20 mm.The SHAtropE model exhibits better performance for areas with large variations in elevation.The GPT3 model and the IGGtropSH model are more stable across different months,and the SHAtropE model based on the GNSS data exhibits superior performance across various UTC epochs.

基于EOF-DBSCAN-GRU的分布式光伏集群出力预测方法研究

提出一种基于EOF-DBSCAN划分集群的改进统计升尺度的光伏集群出力预测建模方法。针对传统统计升尺度方法子集群中光伏电站出力特性不一致问题,通过皮尔逊相关系数和经验正交函数(EOF)优化特征空间,再根据密度聚类模型(DBSCAN)对区域内光伏电站划分集群,从而增强光伏电站聚类后集群出力特性的一致性。针对待预测日权重系数时间序列动态特性的提取、预测问题,提出一种基于动态时间规整(DTW)的相似日选取算法。最后利用循环神经网络(GRU)模型进行光伏电站出力预测。实验表明该集群预测方法的平均误差百分数(MAPE)约为6.33%,均方根误差(RMSE)约为13.93 kW,均方误差(MSE)为194.25 kW,通过实际光伏电站数据证明了所提方法的准确性和有效性。

基于K-均值聚类法和EOF分析的贵港市台风暴雨特征分析

利用实况观测资料、中国气象局台风最佳路径数据集,采用K-均值聚类法,结合经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,分析研究2010—2023年间影响贵港市的65个台风造成的暴雨特征。结果表明:(1)有39个台风造成暴雨,每年平均有2.8次台风暴雨,7、8月是台风暴雨的集中期,港南区南部、覃塘区中西部及桂平北部山区台风暴雨多且高发。(2)根据K-均值聚类分析,将65个台风分为A、B、C类。A、B类台风源地为西北太平洋,C类台风多来自南海。A、B类台风以西北行为主,C类台风路径复杂且在北部湾活跃。B类台风强度最强,C类台风强度最弱。(3)根据贵港市三类台风暴雨第一特征向量空间分布情况分析,A、B类台风暴雨年降雨量表现为全市普遍偏多或者普遍偏少分布型式,C类台风暴雨的年降雨量变化趋势主要为桂平东北部、南部和平南西北部偏多,其余地区偏少,或者桂平东北部、南部和平南西北部偏少,其余地区偏多。

Research on the longitudinal protection of a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system based on the empirical wavelet transform

This paper proposes a longitudinal protection scheme utilizing empirical wavelet transform(EWT)for a through-type cophase traction direct power supply system,where both sides of a traction network line exhibit a distinctive boundary structure.This approach capitalizes on the boundary’s capacity to attenuate the high-frequency component of fault signals,resulting in a variation in the high-frequency transient energy ratio when faults occur inside or outside the line.During internal line faults,the high-frequency transient energy at the checkpoints located at both ends surpasses that of its neighboring lines.Conversely,for faults external to the line,the energy is lower compared to adjacent lines.EWT is employed to decompose the collected fault current signals,allowing access to the high-frequency transient energy.The longitudinal protection for the traction network line is established based on disparities between both ends of the traction network line and the high-frequency transient energy on either side of the boundary.Moreover,simulation verification through experimental results demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed protection scheme across various initial fault angles,distances to faults,and fault transition resistances.

Incorporating empirical knowledge into data-driven variable selection for quantitative analysis of coal ash content by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has become a widely used atomic spectroscopic technique for rapid coal analysis.However,the vast amount of spectral information in LIBS contains signal uncertainty,which can affect its quantification performance.In this work,we propose a hybrid variable selection method to improve the performance of LIBS quantification.Important variables are first identified using Pearson's correlation coefficient,mutual information,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)and random forest,and then filtered and combined with empirical variables related to fingerprint elements of coal ash content.Subsequently,these variables are fed into a partial least squares regression(PLSR).Additionally,in some models,certain variables unrelated to ash content are removed manually to study the impact of variable deselection on model performance.The proposed hybrid strategy was tested on three LIBS datasets for quantitative analysis of coal ash content and compared with the corresponding data-driven baseline method.It is significantly better than the variable selection only method based on empirical knowledge and in most cases outperforms the baseline method.The results showed that on all three datasets the hybrid strategy for variable selection combining empirical knowledge and data-driven algorithms achieved the lowest root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP)values of 1.605,3.478 and 1.647,respectively,which were significantly lower than those obtained from multiple linear regression using only 12 empirical variables,which are 1.959,3.718 and 2.181,respectively.The LASSO-PLSR model with empirical support and 20 selected variables exhibited a significantly improved performance after variable deselection,with RMSEP values dropping from 1.635,3.962 and 1.647 to 1.483,3.086 and 1.567,respectively.Such results demonstrate that using empirical knowledge as a support for datadriven variable selection can be a viable approach to improve the accuracy and reliability of LIBS quantification.

基于REOF分析的山东省年降水区域特征及趋势分析

[目的]探究山东省不同气候分区年降水量的时空特征,为该地区气候分析、防灾减灾提供更加区域性的参考依据。[方法]根据山东省95个国家地面气象观测站1991—2020年降水年值数据,首先对山东省年降水场进行气候分区,然后通过相关统计方法分析各分区降水的时空变化特征。[结果](1)山东省各降水模态降水偏少的年份更多,降水偏多的年份降水强度更大,年代际变化均较为明显,但各模态降水偏多偏少的年份分布及强度变化有所不同。(2)山东省年降水量大致由东南向西北递减,年降水场划分为东南沿海区(Ⅰ区)、西北平原区(Ⅱ区)和中部山地区(Ⅲ区)3个区域,各降水分区年降水均呈不显著增加趋势,趋势率各不相同,突变均不明显。(3)山东省各降水分区年降水量均具有较为明显的周期性特征,东南沿海区年降水场存在2个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度均为2~3 a,未来变化具有强持续性;西北平原区年降水场存在3个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度分别为5~7 a, 3 a和2~3 a,未来变化具有持续性;中部山地区年降水场存在2个较为明显的能量中心,中心尺度分别为2~3 a, 6 a,未来变化具有强持续性。[结论]山东省降水偏少的年份更多,降水偏多的年份降水强度更大,年降水场大致可分为3个分区,各分区年降水量均呈不显著增加趋势,均具有较为明显的周期性特征,且未来变化均具有持续性。

Variational Mode Decomposition-Informed Empirical Wavelet Transform for Electric Vibrator Noise Analysis

Electric vibrators find wide applications in reliability testing, waveform generation, and vibration simulation, making their noise characteristics a topic of significant interest. While Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) offer valuable support for studying signal components, they also present certain limitations. This article integrates the strengths of both methods and proposes an enhanced approach that integrates VMD into the frequency band division principle of EWT. Initially, the method decomposes the signal using VMD, determining the mode count based on residuals, and subsequently employs EWT decomposition based on this information. This addresses mode aliasing issues in the original method while capitalizing on VMD’s adaptability. Feasibility was confirmed through simulation signals and ultimately applied to noise signals from vibrators. Experimental results demonstrate that the improved method not only resolves EWT frequency band division challenges but also effectively decomposes signal components compared to the VMD method.

Empirical Analysis of the ESG and Financial Performance:Evidence from Chinese Technology Enterprises

To date,the concept of sustainable development has gained global attention from companies and investors.One important reason for this is the increasing interest of investors in incorporating environmental,social,and governance(ESG)elements into their investments.The purpose of this dissertation is to analyze the correlation between ESG factor performance and corporate financial performance in Chinese technology enterprises.Additionally,the study focuses on Internet and medical technology companies to ensure relevance.The findings of the study provide guidance on ESG investment and sustainability for both companies and individual investors.

Security Risk Assessment in Container Terminals:Empirical Evidence from Greece

The most prominent risk assessment techniques are founded on the values of measuring and controlling the frequency and the consequences of risks in order to assure an“acceptable level”of“safeness”mainly in the lines of environmental,health and hygiene and port product issues.This paper examines security risk assessment approaches within the emerging role of ports.This paper contributes to the current literature by considering the ports of Greece as a case in point and by measuring the degree of its security risk orientation based on certain valid risk factors drawn from the current literature.Moreover,it presents a security risk assessment methodology into the domain of port container terminals.Their potential for ports were quantitatively and qualitatively assessed by discussing issues of security approaches within the maritime industry,in order to facilitate improvement strategies.A two-dimension empirical study was conducted,in a time range of ten years(2010-2020)in order to provide evidence regarding security risk assessment in the port container terminal of Thessaloniki,in Greece.The findings of this study have significant strategic policy implications and shed more light on the role of security risks in the overall risk orientation of container terminals in practice.Finally,further research directions in security risk in ports are proposed.

Evaluation and Empirical Research on Teachers’ Information Literacy in the Context of Smart Education

The development of smart education has led to the integration of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence with education.It is a prerequisite for teachers to have high information literacy for conducting education and teaching work.This study conducted a questionnaire survey on 412 teachers in a certain area.The results showed that teachers’information literacy is above the middle level,and there are significant differences in information literacy between teaching experience and educational background.The evaluation showed that information ethics,information awareness,and information application have a significant positive impact on professional development,and information knowledge and information awareness have a positive predictive effect on information ethics.

An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of Moral and Law Course Teaching on the Effectiveness of University Students’Ideals and Beliefs Education

The Moral and Law course serves as a critical platform for educating university students about ideals and beliefs,and it has a significant impact on the effectiveness of ideals and beliefs education.This paper establishes a mechanism through which Moral and Law course teaching influences the effectiveness of ideals and beliefs education and conducts an empirical evaluation.The results reveal that factors such as the relevance and applicability of the teaching content,the integration of theory and practice,the innovation,interactivity,and participation of teaching methods,as well as classroom atmosphere,teaching facilities,and campus culture,all have a significant positive impact on the effectiveness of ideals and beliefs education for university students.

基于REOF分析的贵州省降水模式识别及变化趋势预测

【目的】为了解贵州省区域降水特点和变化趋势,更好地应对气候变化。【方法】应用旋转经验正交函数分解(REOF)方法,将贵州省1963-2022年降雨场划分为4个区域,并分析了各区域降水特征及其变化趋势。【结果】总体上Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅳ区呈减少趋势,Ⅲ区呈增加趋势,变化趋势在1989-2014年之间通过P<0.05的显著性检验,其中Ⅳ区变化趋势在1986年有突变;各区均有35 a的主周期变化,其中Ⅰ区未来5 a为下降周期,Ⅱ区未来9 a为下降周期,Ⅲ区和Ⅳ区未来4 a为下降周期。【结论】贵州省降水有明显的年代际变化,Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区相较于Ⅲ区、Ⅳ区出现极端干旱和强降水事件的概率更大,各区年平均降水量均显示出较为明显的周期性变化特征,未来变化有显著的持续性。

年代际背景下南半球冬季500 hP EOF分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,台风位置、强度、最大风速等相关资料(温州台风网),利用EOF分析、相关分析、小波分析等分析方法,分析了南半球冷空气活动通过向北越赤道气流对西北太平洋热带气旋的影响。本文在前人研究基础上,对不同年代际背景下的时空特征进行分析,研究发现,南极冷空气活动存在多模态的异常特征,南极极涡地区的冷空气活动与索马里、中国南海区域向北越赤道气流有明显的正相关关系。

SIGNIFICANCE TEST FOR EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION (EOF) ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC DATA

A Monte Carlo experiment was done to create a statistically significant test table for selecting EOF modes whose signals are above the noise level. Numerical analysis showed that it is feasible to choose a shorter data set between temporal and spatial dimensions for conducting an EOF analysis, and thus simplify calculation of the covariance matrix and solution of its eigenvalues and eigenvectors. The experiment showed that the dominant EOF modes remained the same. This approach is more computationally efficient, reducing both computing time and computer memory requirement, while still retaining the dominant signal.

基于EOF和MK趋势分析的赣江流域降水时空分布格局

[目的]研究赣江流域降水的时空分布特征,明确流域上中下游地区不同等级降雨的年际、年内和空间变化规律,并揭示易引发洪涝灾害的大雨和暴雨的高发时段和集中分布区域。[方法]使用经验正交函数分析(EOF)和Mann-Kendall(MK)非参数检验等方法对全流域和上中下游降水量以及不同等级降水进行了分类与统计研究。[结果](1)对赣江流域降水空间分布格局的分析发现,降雨的高值中心位于流域东南部的宁都和石城地区,以此为起点向南北两个方向逐渐递减;大雨和暴雨的高值中心也主要位于流域东部及其偏南地区,由此向南北递减;中雨和小雨的高值中心则与之相反,主要位于流域西部及其偏南地区。(2)赣江流域降水的年际趋势变化显示,流域整体降水量呈现不显著增加趋势,仅3个站点和下游区域的降雨量有显著增加趋势;不同等级降雨中,小雨表现为显著下降趋势,中雨整体表现为不显著下降趋势(下游除外),大雨和暴雨在全流域及其不同分区都表现为显著增加趋势。(3)不同等级降雨的年内变化显示,全年降雨量主要集中发生于汛期,中雨和大雨为主要降水类型;6月降水最多,尤其是暴雨量显著大于其他月份,12月降雨量最少。[结论]赣江流域降水呈现出小雨中雨减少,大雨暴雨显著增加的两极分化现象,且呈现明显的时空分布不均现象;以石城和瑞金为起点的流域东南部地区在主汛期(尤其是6月)发生区域性暴雨洪涝灾害的概率较大。