The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the i...The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the idea of expectation by conditioning, special Volterra-type integral equations are derived for general types of repairs, considering the length of repair and reduced degradation of the idle object. In addition to minimal repair and failure replacement, partial repairs are also discussed when the repair results in reduction of the number of future failures or decreases the effective age of the object. Numerical integration-based algorithm and simulation study are performed to solve the resulting integral equation. Since the geometry degradation in different dimensions of a rail track and controlling and maintaining defects are of importance, a numerical example using the rail industry data is conducted. Expected number of failures of different failure type modes in rail track is calculated within a two-year interval. Results show that within a two-year period, anticipated occurrences of cross level failures, surface failures, and DPI failures are 2.4, 3.8, and 5.8, respectively.展开更多
In this paper,we present a brief version of de Finetti-Ramsey’s subjective probability theory and provide a rigorous yet intuitively plausible explanation of expected utility using elementary mathematics.In a final s...In this paper,we present a brief version of de Finetti-Ramsey’s subjective probability theory and provide a rigorous yet intuitively plausible explanation of expected utility using elementary mathematics.In a final section,we take up the case of some“Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory”and try to reconcile them with the help of subjective probabilities.展开更多
Double Q-learning has been shown to be effective in reinforcement learning scenarios when the reward system is stochastic. We apply the idea of double learning that this algorithm uses to Sarsa and Expected Sarsa, pro...Double Q-learning has been shown to be effective in reinforcement learning scenarios when the reward system is stochastic. We apply the idea of double learning that this algorithm uses to Sarsa and Expected Sarsa, producing two new algorithms called Double Sarsa and Double Expected Sarsa that are shown to be more robust than their single counterparts when rewards are stochastic. We find that these algorithms add a significant amount of stability in the learning process at only a minor computational cost, which leads to higher returns when using an on-policy algorithm. We then use shallow and deep neural networks to approximate the actionvalue, and show that Double Sarsa and Double Expected Sarsa are much more stable after convergence and can collect larger rewards than the single versions.展开更多
Structural and geomorphological analysis of the Martian surface in the visible spectral range using the NASA/Viking images in the 90’s,complemented by experimental modelling(Mège and Masson,1996a;Mège et al...Structural and geomorphological analysis of the Martian surface in the visible spectral range using the NASA/Viking images in the 90’s,complemented by experimental modelling(Mège and Masson,1996a;Mège et al.,2003)suggested that the Valles Marineris trough(chasma)system is aligned with a mafic dyke swarm,named the Syria Planum Dyke Swarm.Cross-cutting relationships展开更多
In this paper, we consider the dual risk model in which periodic taxation are paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends are paid under a threshold strategy. We give an analytical approach to derive t...In this paper, we consider the dual risk model in which periodic taxation are paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends are paid under a threshold strategy. We give an analytical approach to derive the expression of gδ(u) (i.e. the Laplace transform of the first upper exit time). We discuss the expected discounted tax payments for this model and obtain its corresponding integro-differential equations. Finally, for Erlang (2) inter-innovation distribution, closedform expressions for the expected discounted tax payments are given.展开更多
<p align="justify"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span>The results were analyzed by unconditional logistic regression. The analysis results showed that the positions entere...<p align="justify"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span>The results were analyzed by unconditional logistic regression. The analysis results showed that the positions entered into the regression model (OR = 2.339);the expected retirement age (OR = 3.280);and delayed retirement can better solve the pension problem (OR = 0.553). Retirement can relieve child financial pressure (OR = 0.217), emotional exhaustion (OR = 0.913) and social opportunities (OR = 1.132). The OR of job title, expected retirement age, and social opportunities is greater than 1, and the others are less than 1. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> The most expected retirement age for nurses is 50 to 55 years old, and they are more inclined to retire early. Factors affecting the willingness to postpone retirement include position and expected retirement age. Postponement of retirement can better solve pension problems. Postponement of retirement can alleviate child financial pressure, social opportunities and emotional exhaustion. </p>展开更多
The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL...The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL) in a cyber-attack. The model we developed is based on utilizing vulnerability information along with having host centric attack graph. Utilizing the developed model, one can identify the interaction among the vulnerabilities and individual variables (risk factors) that drive the Expected Path Length. Gaining a better understanding of the relationship between vulnerabilities and their interactions can provide security administrators a better view and an understanding of their security status. In addition, we have also ranked the attributable variables and their contribution in estimating the subject length. Thus, one can utilize the ranking process to take precautions and actions to minimize Expected Path Length.展开更多
This study was conducted on the analytic tree and got the fitting empirical equation of tree growth,in which the tree growth rate was used as the variable and time as the independent variable.The arithmetical operatio...This study was conducted on the analytic tree and got the fitting empirical equation of tree growth,in which the tree growth rate was used as the variable and time as the independent variable.The arithmetical operation to the function got the mature age of tree growth,and the expected mature age of Ailanthus altissima was 21 a.In addition,the application as well as the research direction and matters needing attention were proposed.展开更多
Introduction: This work investigates whether to conduct a medical study from the point of view of the expected net benefit taking into account statistical power, time and cost. The hypothesis of this paper is that the...Introduction: This work investigates whether to conduct a medical study from the point of view of the expected net benefit taking into account statistical power, time and cost. The hypothesis of this paper is that the expected net benefit is equal to zero. Methods: Information were obtained from a pilot medical study that investigates the effects of two diagnostic modalities, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computerized axial tomography scanner (CT), on patients with acute stroke. Statistical procedure was applied for planning and contrasting equivalence, non-inferiority and inequality hypotheses of the study for the effectiveness, health benefits and costs. A statistical simulation model was applied to test the hypothesis that conducting the study would or not result in overall net benefits. If the null hypothesis not rejected, no benefits would occurred and therefore the two arms-patterns of diagnostic and treatment are of equal net benefits. If the null hypothesis is rejected, net benefits would occur if patients are diagnosed with the more favourable diagnostic modality. Results: For any hypothesis design, the expected net benefits are in the range of 366 to 1796 per patient at 80% of statistical power if conducting the study. The power depends on the monetary value available for a unit of health improvement. Conclusion: The statistical simulations suggest that diagnosing patients with CT will provide more favourable health outcomes showing statistically significant expected net benefits in comparison with MRI.展开更多
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating expected shortfall(ES)for discrete time stochastic volatility(SV)models.Specifically,we develop Monte Carlo methods to evaluate ES for a variety of commonly used SV ...In this paper we consider the problem of estimating expected shortfall(ES)for discrete time stochastic volatility(SV)models.Specifically,we develop Monte Carlo methods to evaluate ES for a variety of commonly used SV models.This includes both models where the innovations are independent of the volatility and where there is dependence.This dependence aims to capture the well-known leverage effect.The performance of our Monte Carlo methods is analyzed through simulations and empirical analyses of four major US indices.展开更多
In this paper, it is discussed a framework combining traditional expected utility and weighted entropy (EU-WE)—also named mean contributive value index—which may be conceived as a decision aiding procedure, or a heu...In this paper, it is discussed a framework combining traditional expected utility and weighted entropy (EU-WE)—also named mean contributive value index—which may be conceived as a decision aiding procedure, or a heuristic device generating compositional scenarios, based on information theory concepts, namely weighted entropy. New proofs concerning the maximum value of the index and the evaluation of optimal proportions are outlined, with emphasis on the optimal value of the Lagrange multiplier and its meaning. The rationale is a procedure of maximizing the combined value of a system expressed as a mosaic, denoted by characteristic values of the states and their proportions. Other perspectives of application of this EU-WE framework are suggested.展开更多
Conjunction of two probability laws can give rise to a possibility law. Using two probability densities over two disjoint ranges, we can define the fuzzy mean of a fuzzy variable with the help of means two random vari...Conjunction of two probability laws can give rise to a possibility law. Using two probability densities over two disjoint ranges, we can define the fuzzy mean of a fuzzy variable with the help of means two random variables in two disjoint spaces.展开更多
Through a measurement of corporate investment plan,i.e.expected investment cash flow growth(EICFG),which combines historical equity issuance and factors that influence firm’s future investment,this paper studies the ...Through a measurement of corporate investment plan,i.e.expected investment cash flow growth(EICFG),which combines historical equity issuance and factors that influence firm’s future investment,this paper studies the impact of investment expectation on firm’s cross-sectional return of stock in China capital market.I document the negative correlation between EICFG and future stock return in A-share market,and find out that stocks of firms with higher growth of investment cash flow performs significantly worse than those with lower growth of investment cash flow in one year.Our long-short EICFG portfolio generates a statistically and economically significant return which cannot be captured by leading factor models.I further disentangle the covariation between EICFG and expected stock return from rational and behavioral perspective.This paper also extends the research of investment premium to investment-based asset pricing model.展开更多
As China's manufacturing industry is advancing the upgrading of its industrial structure, this paper discusses the influence of power imbalance in the top management team on enterprises' management efficiency,...As China's manufacturing industry is advancing the upgrading of its industrial structure, this paper discusses the influence of power imbalance in the top management team on enterprises' management efficiency, and also discusses, on such a basis, the contextual effect of expected performance feedback and joint contextual effect of expected performance feedback and product market competition in combination with the organizational behavior theory and principal-agent theory.展开更多
Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year comp...Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year compulsory education. The result of the mixed logit model shows that one percentage point increase of expected lifetime income will increase students' 3.98 percentage points' probability of choosing corresponding choice, while the nested logit model shows the marginal effect of 4.38. Fathers' educaiton, family income and students' academic performance have significantly positive effect of students' choice probalitiy of going to normal high school and accepting secondary vocational education, which is consistent with the previous literature.展开更多
This paper analyzes the relationship between the risk factor of each stock and the portfolio’s risk based on a small portfolio with four U.S.stocks,and the reason why these risk factors can be regarded as a market in...This paper analyzes the relationship between the risk factor of each stock and the portfolio’s risk based on a small portfolio with four U.S.stocks,and the reason why these risk factors can be regarded as a market invariant.Then,it evaluates the properties of the convex and coherent risk indicators of the capital requirement index composed of VaR and ES,and use three methods(the historical estimation method,boudoukh’s mixed method and Monte Carlo method)to estimate the risk measurement indicators VaR and ES respectively based on the assumption of multivariate normal distribution’risk factors and multivariate student t-copula distribution’s one,finally it figures out that these three calculation results are very close.展开更多
文摘The repeated failures of any equipment or systems are modeled as a renewal process. The management needs an assessment of the number of future failures to allocate the resources needed for fast repairs. Based on the idea of expectation by conditioning, special Volterra-type integral equations are derived for general types of repairs, considering the length of repair and reduced degradation of the idle object. In addition to minimal repair and failure replacement, partial repairs are also discussed when the repair results in reduction of the number of future failures or decreases the effective age of the object. Numerical integration-based algorithm and simulation study are performed to solve the resulting integral equation. Since the geometry degradation in different dimensions of a rail track and controlling and maintaining defects are of importance, a numerical example using the rail industry data is conducted. Expected number of failures of different failure type modes in rail track is calculated within a two-year interval. Results show that within a two-year period, anticipated occurrences of cross level failures, surface failures, and DPI failures are 2.4, 3.8, and 5.8, respectively.
文摘In this paper,we present a brief version of de Finetti-Ramsey’s subjective probability theory and provide a rigorous yet intuitively plausible explanation of expected utility using elementary mathematics.In a final section,we take up the case of some“Paradoxes in Expected Utility Theory”and try to reconcile them with the help of subjective probabilities.
文摘Double Q-learning has been shown to be effective in reinforcement learning scenarios when the reward system is stochastic. We apply the idea of double learning that this algorithm uses to Sarsa and Expected Sarsa, producing two new algorithms called Double Sarsa and Double Expected Sarsa that are shown to be more robust than their single counterparts when rewards are stochastic. We find that these algorithms add a significant amount of stability in the learning process at only a minor computational cost, which leads to higher returns when using an on-policy algorithm. We then use shallow and deep neural networks to approximate the actionvalue, and show that Double Sarsa and Double Expected Sarsa are much more stable after convergence and can collect larger rewards than the single versions.
文摘Structural and geomorphological analysis of the Martian surface in the visible spectral range using the NASA/Viking images in the 90’s,complemented by experimental modelling(Mège and Masson,1996a;Mège et al.,2003)suggested that the Valles Marineris trough(chasma)system is aligned with a mafic dyke swarm,named the Syria Planum Dyke Swarm.Cross-cutting relationships
文摘In this paper, we consider the dual risk model in which periodic taxation are paid according to a loss-carry-forward system and dividends are paid under a threshold strategy. We give an analytical approach to derive the expression of gδ(u) (i.e. the Laplace transform of the first upper exit time). We discuss the expected discounted tax payments for this model and obtain its corresponding integro-differential equations. Finally, for Erlang (2) inter-innovation distribution, closedform expressions for the expected discounted tax payments are given.
文摘<p align="justify"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;"></span>The results were analyzed by unconditional logistic regression. The analysis results showed that the positions entered into the regression model (OR = 2.339);the expected retirement age (OR = 3.280);and delayed retirement can better solve the pension problem (OR = 0.553). Retirement can relieve child financial pressure (OR = 0.217), emotional exhaustion (OR = 0.913) and social opportunities (OR = 1.132). The OR of job title, expected retirement age, and social opportunities is greater than 1, and the others are less than 1. <strong>Conclusion:</strong> The most expected retirement age for nurses is 50 to 55 years old, and they are more inclined to retire early. Factors affecting the willingness to postpone retirement include position and expected retirement age. Postponement of retirement can better solve pension problems. Postponement of retirement can alleviate child financial pressure, social opportunities and emotional exhaustion. </p>
文摘The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL) in a cyber-attack. The model we developed is based on utilizing vulnerability information along with having host centric attack graph. Utilizing the developed model, one can identify the interaction among the vulnerabilities and individual variables (risk factors) that drive the Expected Path Length. Gaining a better understanding of the relationship between vulnerabilities and their interactions can provide security administrators a better view and an understanding of their security status. In addition, we have also ranked the attributable variables and their contribution in estimating the subject length. Thus, one can utilize the ranking process to take precautions and actions to minimize Expected Path Length.
文摘This study was conducted on the analytic tree and got the fitting empirical equation of tree growth,in which the tree growth rate was used as the variable and time as the independent variable.The arithmetical operation to the function got the mature age of tree growth,and the expected mature age of Ailanthus altissima was 21 a.In addition,the application as well as the research direction and matters needing attention were proposed.
文摘Introduction: This work investigates whether to conduct a medical study from the point of view of the expected net benefit taking into account statistical power, time and cost. The hypothesis of this paper is that the expected net benefit is equal to zero. Methods: Information were obtained from a pilot medical study that investigates the effects of two diagnostic modalities, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computerized axial tomography scanner (CT), on patients with acute stroke. Statistical procedure was applied for planning and contrasting equivalence, non-inferiority and inequality hypotheses of the study for the effectiveness, health benefits and costs. A statistical simulation model was applied to test the hypothesis that conducting the study would or not result in overall net benefits. If the null hypothesis not rejected, no benefits would occurred and therefore the two arms-patterns of diagnostic and treatment are of equal net benefits. If the null hypothesis is rejected, net benefits would occur if patients are diagnosed with the more favourable diagnostic modality. Results: For any hypothesis design, the expected net benefits are in the range of 366 to 1796 per patient at 80% of statistical power if conducting the study. The power depends on the monetary value available for a unit of health improvement. Conclusion: The statistical simulations suggest that diagnosing patients with CT will provide more favourable health outcomes showing statistically significant expected net benefits in comparison with MRI.
文摘In this paper we consider the problem of estimating expected shortfall(ES)for discrete time stochastic volatility(SV)models.Specifically,we develop Monte Carlo methods to evaluate ES for a variety of commonly used SV models.This includes both models where the innovations are independent of the volatility and where there is dependence.This dependence aims to capture the well-known leverage effect.The performance of our Monte Carlo methods is analyzed through simulations and empirical analyses of four major US indices.
文摘In this paper, it is discussed a framework combining traditional expected utility and weighted entropy (EU-WE)—also named mean contributive value index—which may be conceived as a decision aiding procedure, or a heuristic device generating compositional scenarios, based on information theory concepts, namely weighted entropy. New proofs concerning the maximum value of the index and the evaluation of optimal proportions are outlined, with emphasis on the optimal value of the Lagrange multiplier and its meaning. The rationale is a procedure of maximizing the combined value of a system expressed as a mosaic, denoted by characteristic values of the states and their proportions. Other perspectives of application of this EU-WE framework are suggested.
文摘Conjunction of two probability laws can give rise to a possibility law. Using two probability densities over two disjoint ranges, we can define the fuzzy mean of a fuzzy variable with the help of means two random variables in two disjoint spaces.
文摘Through a measurement of corporate investment plan,i.e.expected investment cash flow growth(EICFG),which combines historical equity issuance and factors that influence firm’s future investment,this paper studies the impact of investment expectation on firm’s cross-sectional return of stock in China capital market.I document the negative correlation between EICFG and future stock return in A-share market,and find out that stocks of firms with higher growth of investment cash flow performs significantly worse than those with lower growth of investment cash flow in one year.Our long-short EICFG portfolio generates a statistically and economically significant return which cannot be captured by leading factor models.I further disentangle the covariation between EICFG and expected stock return from rational and behavioral perspective.This paper also extends the research of investment premium to investment-based asset pricing model.
文摘As China's manufacturing industry is advancing the upgrading of its industrial structure, this paper discusses the influence of power imbalance in the top management team on enterprises' management efficiency, and also discusses, on such a basis, the contextual effect of expected performance feedback and joint contextual effect of expected performance feedback and product market competition in combination with the organizational behavior theory and principal-agent theory.
文摘Using data from duo-teacher program, I use the mixed logit model and nested logit model to estimate the effect of expected lifetime income on students' human capital investment decision-making after nine-year compulsory education. The result of the mixed logit model shows that one percentage point increase of expected lifetime income will increase students' 3.98 percentage points' probability of choosing corresponding choice, while the nested logit model shows the marginal effect of 4.38. Fathers' educaiton, family income and students' academic performance have significantly positive effect of students' choice probalitiy of going to normal high school and accepting secondary vocational education, which is consistent with the previous literature.
文摘This paper analyzes the relationship between the risk factor of each stock and the portfolio’s risk based on a small portfolio with four U.S.stocks,and the reason why these risk factors can be regarded as a market invariant.Then,it evaluates the properties of the convex and coherent risk indicators of the capital requirement index composed of VaR and ES,and use three methods(the historical estimation method,boudoukh’s mixed method and Monte Carlo method)to estimate the risk measurement indicators VaR and ES respectively based on the assumption of multivariate normal distribution’risk factors and multivariate student t-copula distribution’s one,finally it figures out that these three calculation results are very close.