Prediction of earth rotation parameters based on improved weighted least squares and autoregressive model

In this paper, an improved weighted least squares （WLS）, together with autoregressive （AR） model, is proposed to improve prediction accuracy of earth rotation parameters（ERP）. Four weighting schemes are developed and the optimal power e for determination of the weight elements is studied. The results show that the improved WLS-AR model can improve the ERP prediction accuracy effectively, and for different prediction intervals of ERP, different weight scheme should be chosen.

Earth rotation parameter and variation during 2005—2010 solved with LAGEOS SLR data

Time series of Earth rotation parameters were estimated from range data measured by the satellite laser ranging technique to the Laser Geodynamics Satellites（LAGEOS）-1/2 through 2005 to 2010 using the dynamic method. Compared with Earth orientation parameter（EOP）C04, released by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, the root mean square errors for the measured X and Y of polar motion（PM） and length of day（LOD）were 0.24 and 0.25 milliarcseconds（mas）, and 0.068 milliseconds（ms）, respectively.Compared with ILRSA EOP, the X and Y of PM and LOD were 0.27 and 0.30 mas, and 0.054 ms, respectively. The time series were analyzed using the wavelet transformation and least squares methods. Wavelet analysis showed obvious seasonal and interannual variations of LOD, and both annual and Chandler variations of PM; however, the annual variation could not be distinguished from the Chandler variation because the two frequencies were very close. The trends and periodic variations of LOD and PM were obtained in the least squares sense, and PM showed semi-annual, annual, and Chandler periods.Semi-annual, annual, and quasi-biennial cycles for LOD were also detected. The trend rates of PM in the X and Y directions were 3.17 and 1.60 mas per year, respectively, and the North Pole moved to 26.8E relative to the crust during 2005—2010. The trend rate of the LOD change was 0.028 ms per year.

A modified stochastic model for LS+AR hybrid method and its application in polar motion short-term prediction

Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.

The deforming and rotating Earth——A review of the 18th International Symposium on Geodynamics and Earth Tide,Trieste 2016

The 18th International Symposium on Geodynamics and Earth Tides 2016 covered phenomena that generate temporal variations in geodetic and geophysical observations. In calculating the stress field for Earth tides, the observed geodetic response is used for defining the Earth＇s theology, the Earth internal structure, ＇Earth rotation parameters, and the functioning of the sophisticated instrumentation mounted on Earth and satellites. The instrumentation capable of observing Earth tides, measures changes generated by lithospheric plate movements, as the earthquake cycle and volcanism. Hydrology, tem- perature, and pressure, either of natural or anthropogenic origin, affect the high precision observations, and therefore must be included in this study-realm.

Determination of global geodetic parameters using satellite laser ranging to Galileo,GLONASS,and BeiDou satellites

The new Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)satellites,including GLONASS,Galileo,and BeiDou system,are equipped with Laser Retroreflector Arrays(LRA)to support Satellite Laser Ranging(SLR)tracking,which contributes to the estimation of global geodetic parameters.In this study,we estimate the global geodetic parameters using the SLR observations to GNSS satellites and also investigate the effects of different data processing strategies on the estimated Earth Rotation Parameters(ERP),geocenter motion,and terrestrial scale.The results indicate that setting range bias parameters for each satellite-station pair can effectively account for the satellite-specific biases induced by LRAs,leading to smaller Root Mean Square Errors(RMSE)of the post-fit SLR residuals.Furthermore,estimating the range biases for each satellite-station pair improves the accuracy of the estimated station coordinates and ERP.We also examine the impact of different arc lengths on the estimates of ERP,geocenter motion,and terrestrial scale.The results show that extending arc length can significantly reduce the formal error of ERP.The 7-day strategy produces the smallest RMSEs of 473 microarcseconds and 495 microarcseconds for the estimated X-and Y-component of pole coordinates,and 52 microseconds for length-of-day,respectively.However,the estimated geocenter motion is less affected by the arc length,even the shortest 1-day arc strategy can capture the seasonal variations of geocenter motion in Z component.For scale estimation,extending the arc length notably improves the accuracy of the estimated station coordinates and scale,but this advantage becomes less noticeable in longer arcs.The 7-day solution also obtains the closet scale results compared to ITRF2014,with the RMSE of 2.10×10^(–9).

A new polar motion prediction method combined with the difference between polar motion series

After the first Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign(1 st EOP PCC),the traditional method using least-squares extrapolation and autoregressive(LS+AR)models was considered as one of the polar motion prediction methods with higher accuracy.The traditional method predicts individual polar motion series separately,which has a single input data and limited improvement in prediction accuracy.To address this problem,this paper proposes a new method for predicting polar motion by combining the difference between polar motion series.The X,Y,and Y-X series were predicted separately using LS+AR models.Then,the new forecast value of X series is obtained by combining the forecast value of Y series with that of Y-X series;the new forecast value of Y series is obtained by combining the forecast value of X series with that of Y-X series.The hindcast experimental comparison results from January 1,2011 to April 4,2021 show that the new method achieves a maximum improvement of 12.95%and 14.96%over the traditional method in the X and Y directions,respectively.The new method has obvious advantages compared with the differential method.This study tests the stability and superiority of the new method and provides a new idea for the research of polar motion prediction.

GSTAR:an innovative software platform for processing space geodetic data at the observation level

To meet the demands for the data combination with multiple space geodetic techniques at the observation level,we developed a new software platform with high extensibility and computation efficiency,named space Geodetic SpatioTemporal data Analysis and Research software(GSTAR).Most of the modules in the GSTAR are coded in C++with object-oriented programming.The layered modular theory is adopted for the design of the software,and the antenna-based data architecture is proposed for users to construct personalized geodetic application scenarios easily.The initial performance of the GSTAR software is evaluated by processing the Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)data collected from 315 globally distributed stations over two and a half years.The accuracy of GNSS-based geodetic products is evaluated by comparing them with those released by International GNSS Service(IGS)Analysis Centers(AC).Taking the products released by European Space Agency(ESA)as reference,the Three-Dimension(3D)Root-Mean-Squares(RMS)of the orbit differences are 2.7/6.7/3.3/7.7/21.0 cm and the STandard Deviations(STD)of the clock differences are 19/48/16/32/25 ps for Global Positioning System(GPS),GLObal NAvigation Satellite System(GLONASS),Galileo navigation satellite system(Galileo),BeiDou Navigation Satellite System(BDS),Medium Earth Orbit(MEO),and BDS Inclined Geo-Synchronous Orbit(IGSO)satellites,respectively.The mean values of the X and Y components of the polar coordinate and the Length of Day(LOD)with respect to the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service(IERS)14 C04 products are-17.6 microarc-second(μas),9.2μas,and 14.0μs/d.Compared to the IGS daily solution,the RMSs of the site position differences in the north/east/up direction are 1.6/1.5/3.9,3.8/2.4/7.6,2.5/2.4/7.9 and 2.7/2.3/7.4 mm for GPS-only,GLONASS-only,Galileo-only,and BDS-only solution,respectively.The RMSs of the differences of the tropospheric Zenith Path Delay(ZPD),the north gradients,and the east gradients are 5.8,0.9,and 0.9 mm with respect to the IGS products.The X and Y components of the geocenter motion estimated from GPS-only,Galileo-only,and BDS-only observations well agree with IGS products,while the Z component values are much nosier where anomalous harmonics in GNSS draconitic year can be found.The accuracies of the above products calculated by the GSTAR are comparable with those from different IGS ACs.Compared to the precise scientific orbit products,the 3D RMS of the orbit differences for the two Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-on(GRACE-FO)satellites is below 1.5 cm by conducting Precise Point Positioning with Ambiguity Resolution(PPP-AR).In addition,a series of rapid data processing algorithms are developed,and the operation speed of the GSTAR software is 5.6 times faster than that of the Positioning and Navigation Data Analyst(PANDA)software for the quad-system precise orbit determination procedure.