Atmospheric or climate phenomena are usually a combination of elementary events whose scales range from the very small (microscopic) to the infinitely large (synoptic). This means that build reasoning from ground- or ...Atmospheric or climate phenomena are usually a combination of elementary events whose scales range from the very small (microscopic) to the infinitely large (synoptic). This means that build reasoning from ground- or space-based observations only, regardless of the physics of elementary processes, inevitably leads to erroneous results. Given the fact that plots of Troposphere Tricellular Circulation are only based on weather mean conditions measured near the ground (i.e.: pressure and winds fields observed at the surface of the earth), we want to improve these representations of the general circulation of the atmosphere, by using both Clausius-Clapeyron Relation and Carnot Principle derived respectively in 1832 and 1824. Indeed, Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows precisely that, unlike the dry water vapor that can be assimilated to the ideal gas at many circumstances, the saturated water vapor has, in an air parcel at the same time cold (temperature below 0.0098°C) and rich in moisture (vapor pressure above 6.11 mb), thermoelastic properties diametrically opposed to those of ideal gas (including dry water vapor). Vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere provided by ground- or space-based observations lead to the location of a troposphere region in which the ideal gas assumption should be banned: hence appropriate and unique plot of earth’s atmosphere tricellular circulation.展开更多
The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of...The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of making erroneous diagnoses of the instability of the planetary boundary layer of air.Within the framework of this study,the task of probabilistic forecasting of diagnostic parameters and their combinations,leading in their totality to the formation of an unstable state of the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere,was carried out.It is this state that,as shown by previous studies,a priori contribution to the development of a number of weather phenomena dangerous for society(squalls,hail,heavy rains,etc.).The results of applying the minimax method made it possible to identify a number of parameters,such as the intensity of circulation,the activity of the Earth’s magnetosphere,and the components of the geostrophic wind velocity,the combination of which led to the development of instability.In the future,it is possible to further expand the number of diagnosed parameters to identify more sensitive elements.In this sense,the minimax method,the usefulness of which is shown in this study,can be considered as one of the preparatory steps for the subsequent more detailed method for forecasting individual hazardous weather phenomena.展开更多
Any system designed to simulate the earth's atmosphere general circulation, must necessarily be based on the spatial-or temporal average conditions. Irregularities in the profiles of air motions that we observe on...Any system designed to simulate the earth's atmosphere general circulation, must necessarily be based on the spatial-or temporal average conditions. Irregularities in the profiles of air motions that we observe on daily weather maps often make lose any real meaning to the general circulation. As complicated and inconsistent that is the daily traffic of air particles, it is interesting to define a general circulation characteristic of the average air transportation around the globe. Indeed, this transport responds to a need to transfer heat from the equator (heat source) to the poles (cold sources). Mbane Biouele formula (2009), derived from Clausius-Clapeyron relation (1832), now allows faithful and unique representation of the tricellular general circulation: Hence, the possibility of access to the earth’s atmosphere prevailing surface winds in summer as well as winter.展开更多
Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in ...Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD(length of day) were described. We applied MSSA(Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis) jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs(Principal components) strongly related to ENSO(El Nino southern oscillation) were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.展开更多
文摘Atmospheric or climate phenomena are usually a combination of elementary events whose scales range from the very small (microscopic) to the infinitely large (synoptic). This means that build reasoning from ground- or space-based observations only, regardless of the physics of elementary processes, inevitably leads to erroneous results. Given the fact that plots of Troposphere Tricellular Circulation are only based on weather mean conditions measured near the ground (i.e.: pressure and winds fields observed at the surface of the earth), we want to improve these representations of the general circulation of the atmosphere, by using both Clausius-Clapeyron Relation and Carnot Principle derived respectively in 1832 and 1824. Indeed, Clausius-Clapeyron relation shows precisely that, unlike the dry water vapor that can be assimilated to the ideal gas at many circumstances, the saturated water vapor has, in an air parcel at the same time cold (temperature below 0.0098°C) and rich in moisture (vapor pressure above 6.11 mb), thermoelastic properties diametrically opposed to those of ideal gas (including dry water vapor). Vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere provided by ground- or space-based observations lead to the location of a troposphere region in which the ideal gas assumption should be banned: hence appropriate and unique plot of earth’s atmosphere tricellular circulation.
文摘The article is devoted to the discussion of the possibilities of approbation of one of the probabilistic methods of verification of evaluation works-the minimax method or the method of establishing the minimum risk of making erroneous diagnoses of the instability of the planetary boundary layer of air.Within the framework of this study,the task of probabilistic forecasting of diagnostic parameters and their combinations,leading in their totality to the formation of an unstable state of the planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere,was carried out.It is this state that,as shown by previous studies,a priori contribution to the development of a number of weather phenomena dangerous for society(squalls,hail,heavy rains,etc.).The results of applying the minimax method made it possible to identify a number of parameters,such as the intensity of circulation,the activity of the Earth’s magnetosphere,and the components of the geostrophic wind velocity,the combination of which led to the development of instability.In the future,it is possible to further expand the number of diagnosed parameters to identify more sensitive elements.In this sense,the minimax method,the usefulness of which is shown in this study,can be considered as one of the preparatory steps for the subsequent more detailed method for forecasting individual hazardous weather phenomena.
文摘Any system designed to simulate the earth's atmosphere general circulation, must necessarily be based on the spatial-or temporal average conditions. Irregularities in the profiles of air motions that we observe on daily weather maps often make lose any real meaning to the general circulation. As complicated and inconsistent that is the daily traffic of air particles, it is interesting to define a general circulation characteristic of the average air transportation around the globe. Indeed, this transport responds to a need to transfer heat from the equator (heat source) to the poles (cold sources). Mbane Biouele formula (2009), derived from Clausius-Clapeyron relation (1832), now allows faithful and unique representation of the tricellular general circulation: Hence, the possibility of access to the earth’s atmosphere prevailing surface winds in summer as well as winter.
基金supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grants No. 17-05-00989, No. 16-05-00753,NRU HSE and visiting grants positions at Paris observatory and Wuhan university for the first authorpartially supported by grants by NSF/IGFA Belmont Forum Project (Grant No. ICER-1342644)the Chinese Academy of Sciences/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams(Grant No. KZZD-EW-TZ-05)
文摘Earth's variable rotation is mainly produced by the variability of the AAM(atmospheric angular momentum). In particular, the axial AAM component X_3, which undergoes especially strong variations,induces changes in the Earth's rotation rate. In this study we analysed maps of regional input into the effective axial AAM from 1948 through 2011 from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Global zonal circulation patterns related to the LOD(length of day) were described. We applied MSSA(Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis) jointly to the mass and motion components of AAM, which allowed us to extract annual, semiannual, 4-mo nth, quasi-biennial, 5-year, and low-frequency oscillations. PCs(Principal components) strongly related to ENSO(El Nino southern oscillation) were released. They can be used to study ENSO-induced changes in pressure and wind fields and their coupling to LOD. The PCs describing the trends have captured slow atmospheric circulation changes possibly related to climate variability.