A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

The 600 keV electron injections in the Earth's outer radiation belt:A statistical study

Relativistic electron injections are one of the mechanisms of relativistic(≥0.5 MeV) electron enhancements in the Earth’s outer radiation belt. In this study, we present a statistical observation of 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt by using data from the Van Allen Probes. On the basis of the characteristics of different injections, 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt were divided into pulsed electron injections and nonpulsed electron injections. The 600 keV electron injections were observed at 4.5 < L <6.4 under the geomagnetic conditions of 450 nT < AE < 1,450 nT. An L of ~4.5 is an inward limit for 600 keV electron injections. Before the electron injections, a flux negative L shell gradient for ≤0.6 MeV electrons or low electron fluxes in the injected region were observed. For600 keV electron injections at different L shells, the source populations from the Earth’s plasma sheet were different. For 600 keV electron injections at higher L shells, the source populations were higher energy electrons(~200 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)), whereas the source populations for 600 keV electron injections at lower L shells were lower energy electrons(~80 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)). These results are important to further our understanding of electron injections and rapid enhancements of 600 keV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt.

Sources of IR Radiation in the Earth’s Atmosphere in Connection with the PeTa Effect

The PeTa (Perelman-Tatartchenko) effect is the radiation of the energy of a first-order phase transition during the transition from a less condensed phase to a more condensed one. The effect was independently discovered by M. Perelman and the author of this paper. Six papers on the PeTa effect have been published in this journal over the past nine years. They are devoted to the development of PeTa models to explain the following phenomena: IR radiation from cold surfaces, cavitation luminescence/sonoluminescence (CL/SL), laser-induced bubble luminescence (LIBL), and vapor bubble luminescence (VBL) in underwater geysers. This paper describes the sources of PeTa radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere. These sources of infrared radiation have been investigated by numerous research groups, but their interpretation either does not exist at all, or it is erroneous. The following phenomena are specifically considered: PeTa radiation during the formation of clouds and fog;a pulse laser based on the PeTa radiation;condensation explosions as sources of PaTa radiation;measurement of the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere using PeTa radiation;atmospheric scintillation of infrared radiation in the atmosphere due to the PeTa effect;PeTa radiation as a source of comfort for the igloo;the influence of PeTa radiation on living organisms;PeTa radiation due to characteristics of tropical storms;PeTa radiation as a possible precursor to earthquakes. The problem of global warming, which worries everyone, as it turns out, is also associated with the PeTa effect.

Retrieval of Outgoing Longwave Radiation from COMS Narrowband Infrared Imagery

Hourly outgoing longwave radiation （OLR） from the geostationary satellite Communication Oceanography Meteorological Satellite （COMS） has been retrieved since June 2010.The COMS OLR retrieval algorithms are based on regression analyses of radiative transfer simulations for spectral functions of COMS infrared channels.This study documents the accuracies of OLRs for future climate applications by making an intercomparison of four OLRs from one single-channel algorithm （OLR12.0 using the 12.0 μm channel） and three multiple-channel algorithms （OLR10.8＋12.0 using the 10.8 and 12.0 pm channels; OLR6.7＋10.8 using the 6.7 and 10.8 μm channels; and OLRAll using the 6.7,10.8,and 12.0 μm channels）.The COMS OLRs from these algorithms were validated with direct measurements of OLR from a broadband radiometer of the Clouds and Earth＇s Radiant Energy System （CERES） over the full COMS field of view [roughly （50°S-50°N,70°-170°E）] during April 2011.Validation results show that the root-mean-square errors of COMS OLRs are 5-7 W m-2,which indicates good agreement with CERES OLR over the vast domain.OLR6.7＋10.8 and OLRAll have much smaller errors （～ 6 W m-2） than OLR12.0 and OLR10.8＋12.0 （～ 8 W m-2）.Moreover,the small errors of OLR6.7＋10.8 and OLRAll are systematic and can be readily reduced through additional mean bias correction and/or radiance calibration.These results indicate a noteworthy role of the 6.7 μm water vapor absorption channel in improving the accuracy of the OLRs.The dependence of the accuracy of COMS OLRs on various surface,atmospheric,and observational conditions is also discussed.

Accurate Shortwave Radiation Simulation with a Two-Layer Aerosol Model in Xinjiang Region

To harness the rich solar energy resources in Xinjiang Region of Northwest China,this study tries to address the issue of lack of downward surface shortwave radiation(DSSR)observations and the need to improve the accuracy of satellite retrieval and numerical simulation of DSSR under varied sky and meteorological conditions.(1)A two-layer aerosol model specific to Xinjiang was developed to capture the vertical distributions of aerosols based on multiple data sources including lidar,GPS sounding,ground meteorological observations,and profiles from the ECMWF reanalysis version 5(ERA5)data.The results show that the ERA5/PBLH(planetary boundary layer height)and ERA5/ALH(aerosol layer height)could be used to establish the two-layer aerosol model and characterize the vertical distribution of aerosols in Xinjiang Region.(2)Using the Santa Barbara Discrete Atmospheric Radiative Transfer(SBDART)model,a localized inverse model of clear-sky DSSR was established.After parameter adjustment and using the optimal combination of input parameters for DSSR simulation together with the two-layer aerosol model,the model-simulated DSSR(DSSRSBD)under clear-sky conditions improved significantly compared to the initial results,with all fitting indices greatly improved.(3)In addition,the study demonstrated that the impact of the two-layer aerosol model on DSSR was more pronounced under dust conditions than clear-sky conditions.(4)Using the localized clear-sky DSSR inversion model and its required parameters,simulations were also conducted to capture the spatiotemporal distribution of DSSR under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang from 2017 to 2019.The annual average DSSR_(SBD)under clear-sky conditions in Xinjiang during 2017–2019 was 606.78 W m^(-2),while DSSR from CERES(DSSR_(CER))under the same conditions was generally higher(703.95 W m^(-2)).(5)It is found that satellite remote sensing products experienced data loss in high-altitude snow areas,where numerical simulation technology could serve as a valuable complement.

How to Heat a Planet? Impact of Anthropogenic Landscapes on Earth’s Albedo and Temperature

Today anthropogenic climate change is underway and predicted future global temperatures vary significantly. However, the drivers of current climate change and their links to Earth’s natural glacial cycle have yet to be fully resolved. Currently, many on a local level understand, and are exposed to, the heat energy generated by what’s referred to as the urban heat island effect (UHI), whereby natural flora with higher albedos is replaced by manmade urban areas with lower albedos. This heat effect is not constrained to these regions and all anthropogenic surfaces with lower albedos need to be studied and quantified as the accumulated additional heat energy (infrared energy) is trapped within Earth’s atmosphere and could affect the Earth on a planetary level. Deployed satellites have detected critical changes to Earth’s albedo to lower levels, however the cause and impact of these changes have yet to be fully understood and incorporated into Global Circulation models (GCMs). Here it’s shown that industrialization of anthropogenic landscape practices of the past century has displaced millions of square kilometres of naturally high albedo grasslands with lower albedo agricultural landscapes. Utilising a fundamental Energy Balance Model, (EBM) it’s demonstrated these specific changes have generated vast amounts of additional heat energy which is trapped by the atmosphere, transferred and stored within the oceans of the Earth as shown in Figure 1. The total additional heat energy accumulated over the preceding 110 years correlates to that required to warm the Earth to the levels seen to date, altering Earth’s overall energy budget. This energy will continue to accumulate and warm the Earth to a predicted 1.60 ± 0.20 Celsius by 2050 over 1910 levels. These findings are independent of anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) additions and are further validated by predicting Earth’s temperature and albedo at the last glacial maxima, suggesting that an albedo cycle aligned to Gaia theory is the primary driver of Earth’s natural climate cycle.

青藏高原地区NOAA-7与Nimbus-7辐射收支观测结果的比较

本文利用1982年8月—1983年7月NOAA—7与Nimbus—7的月平均资料,比较了两者在青藏高原地区的行星反射率、OLR及地气系统净辐射的时空变化特征,并定量分析了两种资料的差异及相关性。分析结果表明,在青藏高原地区,两种资料的差异非常明显,相关性较差。Nimbus—7测值表现了随纬度而变化的大趋势,NOAA—7测值则较细致地反映了高原的影响。由此认为,NOAA—7测值更适用于青藏高原地区的气候学研究。

风云三号B星(FY-3B)上地球辐射探测仪的绝对辐射定标及其与Aqua卫星上云和地球辐射能量系统(CERES)数据之间的对比

风云三号B星（FY-3B）携带的地球辐射探测仪（ERM）通过窄视场（NFOV）扫描和宽视场（WFOV）非扫描方式来观测地球大气。每种视场包括两个宽带通道，即光谱范围在0.2～50μm的全波段通道和在0.2～4.3μm之间的短波通道。将ERM观测去滤波的长波辐射、短波辐射与美国地球观测系统（EOS）Aqua卫星携带的云和地球辐射能量系统（CERES）飞行模式（FM）3中观测数据对比来检验ERM的定标。ERM的长波辐射和短波辐射与CERES数据具有较好的相关性，二者之间存在一定系统偏差。利用CERES数据对ERM数据做光谱订正。经过订正后，ERM长波辐射偏差会从-3.00W/（sr·m2）减小到-0.60W/（sr·m2），短波辐射的偏差从6.00W/（sr·m2）减小到4.00W/（sr·m2）。根据ERM在轨内定标数据分析了ERM长波及短波通道辐射响应的稳定性，结果显示全波通道长波部分较为稳定并且变化率小于1.5%，与之相比，短波通道变化较大，变化率超过3%。这些变化可能是由于探测器的退化而引起的，NFOV短波通道在轨运行8个月后因故障失效。

Generation of global 1-km daily top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation product from 2000 to 2021 using machine learning

Top-of-atmosphere(TOA)outgoing longwave radiation(OLR),a key component of the Earth’s energy budget,serves as a diagnostic of the Earth’s climate system response to incoming solar radiation.However,existing products are typically estimated using broadband sensors with coarse spatial resolutions.This paper presents a machine learning method to estimate TOA OLR by directly linking Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)TOA radiances with TOA OLR determined by Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES)and other information,such as the viewing geometry,land surface temperature and cloud top temperature determined by Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications,Version 2(MERRA-2).Models are built separately under clear-and cloudy-sky conditions using a gradient boosting regression tree.Independent test results show that the root mean square errors(RMSEs)of the clear-sky and cloudy-sky models for estimating instantaneous values are 4.1 and 7.8 W/m^(2),respectively.Real-time conversion ratios derived from CERES daily and hourly OLR data are used to convert the instantaneous MODIS OLR to daily results.Inter-comparisons of the daily results show that the RMSE of the estimated MODIS OLR is 8.9 W/m^(2) in East Asia.The developed high resolution dataset will be beneficial in analyzing the regional energy budget.

Calculation of the extreme ultraviolet radiation of the earth's plasmasphere

The dynamic global core plasma model(DGCPM) is used in this paper to calculate the He+ density distribution of the Earth's plasmasphere and to investigate the configurations and 30.4 nm radiation properties of the plasmasphere.Validation comparisons between the simulation results and IMAGE mission observations show:That the equatorial structure of the plasmapause is mainly located near 5.5 RE and the typical scale of plasmasphere shrinking or expansion within 10 min is approximately 0.1 RE;that the plasmaspheric shoulders are formed and rotate noon-ward from the dawn sector under the conditions of strong southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF);that the plasmaspheric plumes will rotate dawn-ward from the night sector and become narrow for the southward turning of the IMF.The simulated images from the lunar orbit show that the plasmasphere locating within the geocentric distance of 5.5 RE corresponds to field of view(FOV) of 10.7°×10.7° for the moon-based EUV imager,and that the 30.4 nm radiation intensity of the plasmasphere is 0.1-11.4 R.The plasmaspheric shoulders and plumes locating toward the moon-side are for the first time simulated with typical scale level of 0.1 RE from the side view of the moon.These simulated results provide an important theoretical basis for the lunar-based EUV camera design.

大视场ERB-NS全波探测通道的高精度辐射定标

基于腔体辐射计的基本原理，提出一种地球辐射收支仪全波探测通道的高精度辐射定标系统，并给出了定标实验结果．

Artificial modification of Earth's radiation belts by ground-based very-low-frequency(VLF)transmitters

Wave-particle interactions play a fundamental role in the dynamic variability of Earth’s donut-shaped radiation belts that are highly populated by magnetically trapped energetic particles and characteristically separated by the slot devoid of high energetic electrons.Owing to the continuous accumulation of high-quality wave and particle measurements from multiple satellites in geospace,the important contribution of ground-based very-low-frequency(VLF)transmitter waves to the electron dynamics in the near-Earth space has been unprecedently advanced,in addition to those established findings of the significant effects of a variety of naturally occurring magnetospheric waves.This paper focuses on the artificial modification of Earth’s inner radiation belt and slot by artificial VLF transmitter emissions.We review the global distributions of VLF transmitter waves in geospace,their scattering effects on radiation belt electrons in terms of both theoretical and observational analyses,and diffusion simulation results of wave-particle interactions along with data-model comparisons.We start with a brief review of the radiation belt electron dynamics and an introduction of anthropogenic VLF transmitter waves.Subsequently,we review the global morphology of in situ VLF transmitter waves corresponding to different transmitter locations,including their day-night asymmetry,geographic distributions,seasonal and geomagnetic activity dependence,and wave propagation features.Existed theoretical and observational analyses of electron scattering effects by VLF transmitter waves are then reviewed to approach the underlying physics that can modulate the spatio-temporal variations of the electron radiation belts.Further Fokker-Planck electron diffusion simulations and their comparisons with realistic satellite observations clearly indicate that VLF transmitter emissions can effectively remove energetic electrons to produce a radially bifurcated electron belt,thereby quantitatively confirming the direct link between operations of VLF transmitters at ground and changes of the energetic electron environment in space.We finally discuss the unsolved problems and possible future research in this area,which has important implications for potential mitigation of the natural particle radiation environment with active means.

From the Beginning of the World to the Beginning of Life on Earth

Hypersphere World-Universe Model (WUM) is, in fact, a Paradigm Shift in Cosmology [1]. In this paper, we provide seven Pillars of WUM: Medium of the World;Inter-Connectivity of Primary Cosmological Parameters;Creation of Matter;Multicomponent Dark Matter;Macroobjects;Volcanic Rotational Fission;Dark Matter Reactors. We describe the evolution of the World from the Beginning up to the birth of the Solar System and discuss the condition of the Early Earth before the beginning of life on it.

On the Solar Climate of the Moon and the Resulting Surface Temperature Distribution

The solar climate of our Moon is analyzed using the results of numerical simulations and the recently released data of the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment (DLRE) to assess (a) the resulting distribution of the surface temperature, (b) the related global mean surface temperature Ts>, and (c) the effective radiation temperature Te often considered as a proxy for Ts> of rocky planets and/or their natural satellites, where Te is based on the global radiation budget of the well-known “thought model” of the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere. Because the Moon consists of similar rocky material like the Earth, it comes close to this thought model. However, the Moon’s astronomical features (e.g., obliquity, angular velocity of rotation, position relative to the disc of the solar system) differ from that of the Earth. Being tidally locked to the Earth, the Moon’s orbit around the Sun shows additional variation as compared to the Earth’s orbit. Since the astronomical parameters affect the solar climate, we predicted the Moon’s orbit coordinates both relative to the Sun and the Earth for a period of 20 lunations starting May 24, 2009, 00:00 UT1 with the planetary and lunar ephemeris DE430 of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology. The results revealed a mean heliocentric distance for the Moon and Earth of 1.00124279 AU and 1.00166376 AU, respectively. The mean geocentric distance of the Moon was 384792 km. The synodic and draconic months deviated from their respective means in a range of -5.7 h to 6.9 h and ±3.4 h, respectively. The deviations of the anomalistic months from their mean range between -2.83 d and 0.97 d with the largest negative deviations occurring around the points of inflection in the curve that represents the departure of the synodic month from its mean. Based on the two successive passages of the Sun through the ascending node of the lunar equator plane, the time interval between them corresponds to 347.29 days, i.e., it is slightly longer than the mean draconic year of 346.62 days. We computed the local solar insolation as input to the multilayer-force restore method of Kramm et al. (2017) that is based on the local energy budget equation. Due to the need to spin up the distribution of the regolith temperature to equilibrium, analysis of the model results covers only the last 12 lunations starting January 15, 2010, 07:11 UT1. The predicted slab temperatures, Tslab, considered as the realistic surface temperatures, follow the bolometric temperatures, Tbol, acceptably. According to all 24 DLRE datasets related to the subsolar longitude øss, the global averages of the bolometric temperature amounts to Tbol=201.1k± 0.6K. Based on the globally averaged emitted infrared radiation of FIR>=290.5W·m-2± 3.0W·m-2 derived from the 24 DLRE datasets, the effective radiative temperature of the Moon is Te, M>=Tbol>1/4=271.0k± 0.7K so that Tbol>≅0.742Te, M. The DLRE observations suggest that in the case of rocky planets and their natural satellites, the globally averaged surface temperature is notably lower than the effective radiation temperature. They differ by a factor that depends on the astronomical parameters especially on the angular velocity of rotation.

Remote sensing of earth’s energy budget:synthesis and review

The Earth’s climate is largely determined by its energy budget.Since the 1960s,satellite remote sensing has been used in estimating these energy budget components at both the top of the atmosphere(TOA)and the surface.Besides the broadband sensors that have been traditionally used for monitoring Earth’s Energy Budget(EEB),data from a variety of narrowband sensors aboard both polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites have also been extensively employed to estimate the EEB components.This paper provides a comprehensive review of the satellite missions,state-of-the art estimation algorithms and the satellite products,and also synthesizes current understanding of the EEB and spatiotemporal variations.The TOA components include total solar irradiance,reflected shortwave radiation/planetary albedo,outgoing longwave radiation,and energy imbalance.The surface components include incident solar radiation,shortwave albedo,shortwave net radiation,longwave downward and upwelling radiation,land and sea surface temperature,surface emissivity,all-wave net radiation,and sensible and latent heat fluxes.Some challenges,and outlook such as virtual constellation of different satellite sensors,temporal homogeneity tests of long time-series products,algorithms ensemble,and products intercomparison are also discussed.

Surface energy budget diagnosis reveals possible mechanism for the different warming rate among Earth’s three poles in recent decades

With the introduction of the‘‘Third Pole'[1],the Arctic,Antarctic,and Tibetan Plateau(TP)can be collectively referred to as the‘‘three poles of the Earth'.The cryosphere is an important component of the climate system because of its effect on Earth’s surface albedo and its role in reducing the amount of heat exchanged between the atmosphere and ocean or land(2)As the dominant parts of the cryosphere,the Arctic,Antarctic,and TP are pivotal and sensitive areas of global climate change.Global warming will weaken the inherent stability of the cryosphere,such as its ice shelves,glaciers and permafrost[3,4].

Evaluation of Reprocessed Fengyun-3B Global Outgoing Longwave Radiation Data:Comparison with CERES OLR

Outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)at the top of the atmosphere(TOA)is a key parameter for understanding and interpreting the relationship between clouds,radiation,and climate interactions.It has been one of the operational products of the Fengyun(FY)meteorological satellites.OLR accuracy has gradually improved with advancements in satellite payload performance and the OLR retrieval algorithm.Supported by the National Key R&D Program Retrospective Calibration of Historical Chinese Earth Observation Satellite data(Richceos)project,a long-term OLR climate data record(CDR)was reprocessed based on the recalibrated Level 1 data of FY series satellites using the latest OLR retrieval algorithm.In this study,Fengyun-3B(FY-3B)’s reprocessed global OLR data from 2010 to 2018 were evaluated by using the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System(CERES)global daily OLR data.The results showed that there was a high consistency between the FY-3B instantaneous OLR and CERES Single Scanner Footprint(SSF)OLR.Globally,between the two CDR datasets,the correlation coefficient reached 0.98,and the rootmean-square error(RMSE)was approximately 8-9 W m^(−2).The bias mainly came from the edge regions of the satellite orbit,which may be related to the satellite zenith angle and cloud cover distribution.It was shown that the longterm FY-3B OLR had temporal stability compared to CERES OLR long-term data.In terms of spatial distribution,the mean deviations showed zonal and seasonal characteristics,although seasonal fluctuations were observed in the differences between the two datasets.Effects of FY-3B OLR application to the South China Sea monsoon region and ENSO were demonstrated and analyzed,and the results showed that the seasonal deviation of FY-3B’s OLR comes mainly from the retrieval algorithm.However,it has little effect on the analysis of climate events.

南京地区近地面紫外辐射UV-B强度对小麦生长及产量影响的评估

在降低目前南京地区近地面紫外UV-B辐射强度15.3%的条件下,采用室外盆栽试验方法,研究了小麦的生长及产量的变化。试验结果表明,降低目前近地面紫外UV-B辐射强度,小麦的株高、叶面积、叶绿素含量、生物产量及经济产量均显著增加,而叶片类黄酮含量显著下降。结果还表明,在小麦不同生育期降低目前近地面紫外UV-B辐射强度,小麦的产量增加幅度也有显著差异,表现为拔节—齐穗期>齐穗—成熟期>苗期。说明目前南京地区近地面紫外UV-B辐射强度对小麦生长及产量已构成一定程度的影响,且小麦拔节—孕穗期是对UV-B辐射的敏感时期。

干旱地区绿洲和沙漠辐射收支的季节变化

本文利用ＨＥＩＦＥ中绿洲（张掖）和沙漠两个测站１９９１年所取得的观测资料，分析了两种不同下垫面太阳辐射能收支及其季节变化特征。结果表明：绿洲区地表反射率明显小于沙漠区，季节变化明显；地面有效辐射绿洲小于沙漠，沙漠地区季节变化明显，绿洲则季节变化不明显；地表净辐射绿洲大于沙漠，不论冬。

地气系统辐射平衡特征的观测研究

利用温斯顿编制的美国NOAA卫星第一批 45个月辐射观测资料分析图 ,包括吸收太阳辐射、反射率及射出长波辐射 ,而地—气系统辐射平衡是用公式计算的。首次对地—气系统辐射平衡理论各分量从数值上进行逐月的和年内的纬向分布特征研究。结果表明 :在一年中太阳直射点随时间的推移在南北回归线之间移动 ,地-气系统辐射平衡、吸收太阳辐射、反射率和射出长波辐射的纬向分布 ,和理论说明的变化是完全一致的。这45个月正处于太阳黑子数相对少期 ,该期间的太阳辐射应是偏弱的。