A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

The 600 keV electron injections in the Earth's outer radiation belt:A statistical study

Relativistic electron injections are one of the mechanisms of relativistic(≥0.5 MeV) electron enhancements in the Earth’s outer radiation belt. In this study, we present a statistical observation of 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt by using data from the Van Allen Probes. On the basis of the characteristics of different injections, 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt were divided into pulsed electron injections and nonpulsed electron injections. The 600 keV electron injections were observed at 4.5 < L <6.4 under the geomagnetic conditions of 450 nT < AE < 1,450 nT. An L of ~4.5 is an inward limit for 600 keV electron injections. Before the electron injections, a flux negative L shell gradient for ≤0.6 MeV electrons or low electron fluxes in the injected region were observed. For600 keV electron injections at different L shells, the source populations from the Earth’s plasma sheet were different. For 600 keV electron injections at higher L shells, the source populations were higher energy electrons(~200 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)), whereas the source populations for 600 keV electron injections at lower L shells were lower energy electrons(~80 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)). These results are important to further our understanding of electron injections and rapid enhancements of 600 keV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt.

基于Fortran语言的地球外辐射带电子三维数据同化建模

开发地球电子辐射带的数据同化模型,对于理解辐射带电子的动态演化过程和辐射带空间天气预报具有重要意义.结合范阿伦卫星的辐射带电子观测数据和外辐射带三维扩散模型,采用卡尔曼滤波算法,本文开发了基于Fortran语言的外辐射带电子三维数据同化模型(Three-dimensional Data Assimilative Model of Outer Radiation belt Electrons,简称TDAMORE),实现对L^(*)=3~7、能量范围为0.1~5 MeV、投掷角范围为5°~90°的外辐射带电子时空变化过程的三维重构.通过对2018年8月期间外辐射带电子通量演化过程的重构,证实TDAMORE模型可以较好地重现不同能量和不同投掷角电子通量在磁暴前后的演化特征.通过分析电子通量的观测和同化结果之间的相关系数、平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方误差,发现对于能量低于4 MeV的电子,观测与同化结果之间的相关系数基本大于0.8且误差相对较低.而对于更高能量的电子,观测与同化结果之间的误差相对较高,这可能是同化模型忽略了电磁离子回旋波对电子的散射损失导致的.

Artificial modification of Earth's radiation belts by ground-based very-low-frequency(VLF)transmitters

Wave-particle interactions play a fundamental role in the dynamic variability of Earth’s donut-shaped radiation belts that are highly populated by magnetically trapped energetic particles and characteristically separated by the slot devoid of high energetic electrons.Owing to the continuous accumulation of high-quality wave and particle measurements from multiple satellites in geospace,the important contribution of ground-based very-low-frequency(VLF)transmitter waves to the electron dynamics in the near-Earth space has been unprecedently advanced,in addition to those established findings of the significant effects of a variety of naturally occurring magnetospheric waves.This paper focuses on the artificial modification of Earth’s inner radiation belt and slot by artificial VLF transmitter emissions.We review the global distributions of VLF transmitter waves in geospace,their scattering effects on radiation belt electrons in terms of both theoretical and observational analyses,and diffusion simulation results of wave-particle interactions along with data-model comparisons.We start with a brief review of the radiation belt electron dynamics and an introduction of anthropogenic VLF transmitter waves.Subsequently,we review the global morphology of in situ VLF transmitter waves corresponding to different transmitter locations,including their day-night asymmetry,geographic distributions,seasonal and geomagnetic activity dependence,and wave propagation features.Existed theoretical and observational analyses of electron scattering effects by VLF transmitter waves are then reviewed to approach the underlying physics that can modulate the spatio-temporal variations of the electron radiation belts.Further Fokker-Planck electron diffusion simulations and their comparisons with realistic satellite observations clearly indicate that VLF transmitter emissions can effectively remove energetic electrons to produce a radially bifurcated electron belt,thereby quantitatively confirming the direct link between operations of VLF transmitters at ground and changes of the energetic electron environment in space.We finally discuss the unsolved problems and possible future research in this area,which has important implications for potential mitigation of the natural particle radiation environment with active means.

地球电子外辐射带的数据同化建模与分析

地球电子外辐射带对太阳与地磁活动呈现高度动态变化的响应,了解外辐射带的全球动态变化过程对于近地空间粒子辐射环境的理解认知和预测预报具有重要意义.基于卡尔曼滤波数据同化方法,本文利用范阿伦A星、B星和GOES-13和GOES-15四颗卫星的辐射带电子观测数据,分别利用三种不同维度的辐射带物理模型,将观测结果与数值结果有机融合,对2013年3月地球外辐射带电子通量的径向分布与变化进行数据同化分析.结果表明,考虑了磁层波动与辐射带电子共振作用引起的径向扩散、投掷角扩散以及能量扩散过程的三维同化模型可有效、合理地重现外辐射带电子通量的径向分布.本文进一步利用该三维同化模型对2013年一整年外辐射带电子的相空间密度分布进行重构与分析,得到了不同绝热不变量和不同地磁活动条件下电子辐射带的时空演化过程,从而为深入理解外辐射带电子的变化过程和动力学机制提供了强有力信息.通过分析同化过程中的新息矢量以及度量同化过程中观测数据在多大程度上修改了物理模型结果,还有助于定量分析现有辐射带物理模型中的源项和损失项的相对贡献以及可能忽略的物理机制或过程.