An Attempt to Analyze a Human Nervous System Algorithm for Sensing Earthquake Precursors

We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the M_s 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14：00 o＇clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of -10^4 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi＇an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.

Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan,China,and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.

Earthquake precursors detected by astronomical observations

It has been primarily confirmed that before the occurrence of a middle or major earthquake, anomalies in the residuals of universal time and latitude measurements obtained by astrometric observations may appear. We investigate the relation between the residual anomalies and the three key factors of an earthquake. To build a network of observational sites so as to obtain data of residuals of universal time and latitude from multi-instruments would be of certain significance for determining three key factors of an earthquake, especially for positioning epicenter. The data from multi-instruments would also be valuable for studies of the variation of the vertical. It is proposed to manufacture potable and high-accuracy astrometric instruments and to build observational network to obtain anomalies of universal time and latitude in the regions with high earthquake uprising possibilities.

The synergy of earthquake precursors

The system of geophysical shells （lithosphere, atmosphere, ionosphere） is considered as an open complex nonlinear system with dissipation where earthquake preparation could be regarded as a self-organizing process leading to the critical state of the system. The processes in atmosphere and ionosphere are considered from the point of view of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. The intensive ionization of boundary layer of atmosphere （probably provided by radon in occasion of earthquake preparation） gives start to the synergetic sequence of coupling processes where the ionosphere and even magnetosphere are the last links in the chain of interactions. Every anomaly observed in different geophysical fields （surface temperature, latent heat flux, electromagnetic emissions, variations in ionosphere, particle precipitation, etc.） is not considered as an individual process but the part of the self-organizing process, the final goal of which is the reaching of the point of the maximum entropy. Radon anomaly before the Kobe earthquake is considered as a perfect example to satisfy the formal seismological determination of the earthquake precursor. What is genetically connected with radon through the ionization process can also be regarded as a precursor. The problem of co-seismic variations of the discussed parameters of atmosphere and ionosphere is considered as well.

Experimental examination on the heterogeneity parameter C_v of earthquake precursors

Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multi-point strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using Cv value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of Cv value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of Cv value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. Cv value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when Cv value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that Cv value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.

Study of techniques of identifying the earthquake precursory anomalies in terms of mathematical modeling

This paper deals mainly with the key technique of identifying the anomalous signals without distortion, which might be the precursors associated with earthquakes, from the real time series of observations that would be usually the mixture of the anomalous signals, the normal background variations, some interference and noises. The key technique of 'un-biased estimation' is to construct an empirical time series and set up the criterion for identifying the anomalous variation on the bases of time series analysis. To the end of testing the method, a man-made time series including the normal variations and random interference as well as specific anomaly, has been constructed. And the test of picking up the anomaly has been conducted with the intuitive and effective way of identifying the anomalous signal from a complicated time series. Test results confirms that the techniques under discussion are effective and applicable, and the signals extracted from the analysis, could be clear and precise, and is almost similar to the known simulated anomalous signals in the experiments.

Statistical property of candidate earthquake precursors and its apparent focal mecha- nism dependence

Statistical properties of reported earthquake precursors show apparent focal mechanism dependence. Intensity of anomaly is described by the ′anomaly ratio′ as defined by the number of stations/items reporting anomalies before the target earthquake over the number of stations/items in operation around the target earthquake. Variation of the ′anomaly ratio′ with the magnitude of the target earthquake was studied for dip-slip earthquakes all over China, strike-slip earthquakes in eastern China, and strike-slip earthquakes in western China, respectively. It is observed that for strike-slip earthquakes, the ′anomaly ratio′ increases linearly with the magnitude of the target earthquake, while earthquakes in eastern China and western China have different slopes. For dip-slip earthquakes, however, the ′anomaly ratio′ has no statistically significant change with the magnitude of the target earthquake. Limited data imply that the ′anomaly ratio′ seems proportional to the apparent stress of the target earthquake. The result might be heuristic for the analysis of candidate earthquake precursors.

Detection of ULF electromagnetic emissions as a precursor to two earthquakes in China

The geomagnetic data recorded by Kashi and Jinghai observatories in China were analyzed with improved polarization method. We compared the result around 0.01 Hz which is thought to be useful to detect the ULF anomaly with the result around 0.1 Hz which was inferred from the earthquake depth according to the skin effect, and found that 0.1 Hz is more proper to detect the ULF anomaly for both earthquakes studied in this paper.

Nucleation of earthquakes and its implication to precursors

The recent argument about nucleation phase of earthquakes reminds us to completely study the concept of earthquake nucleation. The original meaning of nucleation includes concentration, nucleation and initiation of the eruptive processes. Thus, it is needed to discuss how to exactly translate the word 'nucleation' into Chinese in different fields. The basic concept of earthquake nucleation refers to microcrack concentration in rock. It causes local weakening and instability of the rock. The narrow sense of nucleation theory of friction constitutive is significant in friction of fault surfaces, but should not abuse everywhere unconditionally. In terms of thermodynamics, nucleation actually means the variety processes of multiple state parameters of rock. The nucleation is a project that covers multiple courses. In this paper, the studies of damage theory, fracture, earthquake rupture dynamics and constitutive of friction and their implication to earthquake nucleation are remarked. The recently developments are introduced, including the influence of tectonic on the earthquake nucleation process, the method of measuring medium anisotropy, especially shear wave splitting led by concentration and orientation of microcracks. and the experimental study of remote sensing of infrared and microwave radiation related to the nucleation, etc. This paper also discusses the characteristic of large earthquake nucleation, and the implication of above studies to precursors of Strong earthquakes.

Seismogenic model of earthquakes in groups in tectonic block and analysis for some features of earthquake precursory field

Based on the research of computer model on unified seismogenic process of grouped earthquakes in tectonic blockunder tectonodynamic force, some characteristics of seismic activity and some features of earthquake precursoryfield have been studied, including activity of grouped earthquakes, the relationship between earthquake activityand earthquake precursors, the cause of earthquake precursors and so on. By comparing research between the results of theoretical model and practical earthquake cases, some physical explanation for seismogenic process,some characteristics of earthquake activity, and the features of earthquake precursory field have been given.

Research on the fuzzy relationship between the precursory anomalous elements and earthquake elements

This paper deals with the fuzzy information processing method in the research of the relationship between two variables or among multi-variables, with the undetermined or fuzzy features, different from that in the traditional statistical method. The reliability and effectiveness of the method have been tested and confirmed in the numerical simulation for a set of man-made data of precursory anomalous parameters and earthquake elements. Finally the relation between the actual monthly frequency of small earthquakes occurring in Huoshan, Anhui Province, China and the magnitude of future stronger earthquakes, as two variables, has been analyzed by the method. It seems to the authors that more reasonable and perfect results could be given with a quantitative analysis of accession degree in fuzzy mathematics by using this method than that of traditional statistical correlation analysis.

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Results of Geomagnetic Studies on the Problem of Forecasting Strong Earthquakes in Uzbekistan

The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes by the geomagnetic method. The geomagnetic method is widely used on this problem in seismically active regions of the world as one of the promising, informative and operational geophysical methods. The results of long-term geomagnetic studies on the problem of forecasting strong earthquakes in Uzbekistan are presented. Geomagnetic studies were carried out on the territories of the Tashkent, Ferghana, and Kyzylkum geodynamic polygons in the epicentral zones of strong earthquakes that occurred. Long-term, medium- and short-term precursors of earthquakes have been identified. Anomalous changes in the geomagnetic field associated with the decline in aftershock activity were also revealed. The dependence between the duration of the manifestation of long-term magnetic precursors and the magnitude of earthquakes is determined. Absolute proton magnetometers MMP-1, MV-01 (Russia), and G-856 (USA) were used to measure the geomagnetic field.

Variations of Atmospheric ELF/VLF Radio Noise Due to Seismogenic Modifications in Tropospheric Conductivity

We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.

Atmosphere-ionosphere response to the M9 Tohoku earthquake revealed by multiinstrument space-borne and ground observations:Preliminary results

We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake of March 11, 2011. The data include outgoing long wave radiation （OLR）, GPS/TEC, lower Earth orbit ionospheric tomography and critical frequency foF2. Our first results show that on March 7th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data and an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere also there was confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. The joint preliminary analysis of atmospheric and ionospheric parameters during the M9 Tohoku, Japan earthquake has revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. This study may lead to a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere/ionosphere to the great Tohoku earthquake.

Investigation of ionospheric TEC changes related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake based on statistic analysis and signal detection

Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility ofTEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.

Abnormal strain changes observed by a borehole strainmeter at Guza Station before the Ms7. 0 Lushan earthquake

Several days before the MsT. 0 Lushan earthquake, the YRY-4 borehole Strainmeter at Guza Station recorded prominent abnormal changes. The strain anomalies are very striking on the smooth background of several years＇ recording after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, because construction in the town of Guza has been undergoing rapid development in recent years, many factors have interfered with observations at the station. Whether or not the observed strain changes before the Lushan earthquake were affected by any of the sources of interference becomes a question that must be answered. Among the likely sources of interference, apartment construction, sportsground reconstruction, and tunnel cutting can be excluded by analyzing the morphological characteristic of the anomalies. The two remaining most possible sources are road construction in front of the station and the water level change of the nearby Dadu River caused by water filling into and discharging from an upstream reservoir. Through field investigation, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the seismographic recordings, comparison of the correlation between the strain and the Dadu River flow recordings, and analysis of the strain anomaly characteristics, we conclude that the abnormal changes observed at Guza Station cannot be attributed to either of these two sources but should be related to the Lushan earthquake.

Extraction of seismic precursory information from gravity tide at Kunming station based on HHT

Hilbert-Huang Transformation （HHT） is a recently-developed method for non-linear signal processing （Huang et al, 1998）. By performing empirical mode decomposition （EMD） with HHT, various frequency components can be effectively separated as intrinsic mode function （IMF）. After Hilbert transformation to the IMF se- quence, the 3-D discrete time-frequency spectrum containing time, frequency and amplitude can be obtained, which provides very clear time-frequency characteristics with local details. The method is suitable for describing siznals with non-linear and non-stable variations.

3-D rheologic model of earthquake preparation (Ⅱ): Strain field and its applications

On the basis of the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model, the analytic expression of viscoelastic strain field is derived, i.e., the analytic expression of viscoelastic strain at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in x-axis, y-axis and z-axis produced by three-dimension inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model, namely the normal strains exx(r, t), eyy(r, t) and ezz(r, t), the shear strains exy(r, t) and eyx(r, t), eyz(r, t) and ezy(r, t), exz(r, t) and ezx(r, t), and the bulk-strain q (r, t). By computing the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain on the ground produced by a spherical rheologic inclusion in a semi-infinite rheologic medium, we obtained some significant results that the bulk-strain variation with time produced by a hard inclusion has three stages (a, b, g) with different characteristics, which are similar to those of most geodetic deformation curves, but not the case for those by a soft inclusion. It is meaningful that these theoretical results have been applied to explain preliminarily the characteristics of stage variation of spatial-temporal evolution, the pattern and quadrant distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to found the physical model of earthquake precursors and a reference to predict physically the earthquakes.