Analysis of debris flow control effect and hazard assessment in Xinqiao Gully,Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake area based on numerical simulation

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province,China.Based on the investigation of the 2023"6-26"Xinqiao Gully debris flow event,this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards.Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods,the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event.The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by41.05%to 64.61%.The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully,thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow.By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals,further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.

Integrated rockfall hazard and risk assessment along highways: An example for Jiuzhaigou area after the 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake, China

This work addresses the integrated assessment of rockfall(including landslides) hazards and risk for S301, Z120, and Z128 highways, which are important transportation corridors to the world heritage site Jiuzhai Valley National Park in Sichuan, China. The highways are severely threatened by rockfalls or landslide events after the 2017 Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Field survey(September 14-18 th, 2017, May 15-20 th, 2018, and September 9-17 th, 2018), unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), and satellite image identified high-relief rockfalls and road construction rockfalls or landslides along the highway. Rockfall hazard is qualitatively evaluated using block count, velocity, and flying height through a 3D rockfall simulation at local and regional scales. Rockfall risk is quantitatively assessed with rockfall event probability, propagation probability, spatial probability, and vulnerability for different block volume classes. Approximately 21.5%, 20.5%, and 5.3% of the road mileage was found to be subject to an unacceptable(UA) risk class for vehicles along S301, Z120, and Z128 highways, respectively. Approximately 20.1% and 3.3% of the road mileage belong to the UA risk class for tourists along Z120 and Z128 highways, respectively. Results highlighted that high-relief rockfall events were intensively located at K50 to K55(Guanmenzi to Ganheba) and K70 to K72(Jiudaoguai to Shangsizhai Village) road mileages along S301 highway and KZ18 to KZ22(Five Flower Lake to Arrow Bamboo Lake) road mileages, KZ30(Swan Lake to Virgin Forests), and KY10.5 kilometers in Jiuzhai Valley. Rockfalls in these locations were classified under the UA risk class and medium to very high hazard index. Road construction rockfalls were located at K67(Jiuzhai Paradise) and K75–K76 kilometers along S301 highway and KZ12 to KZ14(Rhino Lake to Nuorilang Waterfall), KZ16.5 to KZ17.5(Golden Bell Lake), KY5(Lower Seasonal Lake), and KY14(Upper Seasonal Lake) kilometers along Z120 and Z128 highway in Jiuzhai Valley. Rockfalls in these areas were within a reasonable practicable risk to UA risk class and very low to medium hazard index. Finally, defensive measures, including flexible nets, concrete walls, and artificial tunnels, could be selected appropriately on the basis of the rockfall hazard index and risk class. This study revealed the integration between qualitative rockfall hazard assessment and quantitative rockfall risk assessment, which is crucial in studying rockfall prevention and mitigation.

Quantitative assessment of the impact of earthquakeinduced geohazards on natural landscapes in Jiuzhaigou Valley

Many natural landscapes that lie in high mountain regions are highly susceptible to geological hazards, and their values and integrity are strongly threatened by the hazards. A preliminary framework was proposed to undertake a quantitative assessment of the impact of earthquake-induced geological hazards on the natural landscapes. Four factors reflecting the aesthetic value, ecological value, integrity of landscapes were selected to assess their vulnerability. The impact of earthquake-induced geological hazards on the landscapes is quantitatively expressed as the product of their vulnerability and resilience. The assessment framework was applied to Jiuzhaigou Valley which was severely struck by the Ms 7.0 earthquake on August 8, 2017. Field survey, satellite image interpretation, high-resolution DEM and unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) reconnaissance were used to retrieve the values of the assessment factors. Twenty seven World Heritage Sites in the valley strongly influenced by the earthquakeinduced geohazards were evaluated. The impact values of two sites of them(Sparking Lake and Nuorilang Waterfall) are up to 8.24 and 4.65, respectively, and their natural landscapes were greatly damaged. The assessment results show a good agreement with the actual damages of the heritage sites.

New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan “4.20” M_s7.0 earthquake

The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief,post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake field team of the China Earthquake Administration(CEA) five days after the strong earthquake(M7.0) occurred in Lushan County of Sichuan Ya’an City at 8:02 on April 20,2013 provides a scientific basis for emergency relief,economic loss assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper,the means for blind estimation of macroscopic intensity,field estimation of macro intensity,and review of intensity,as well as corresponding problems are discussed in detail,and the intensity distribution characteristics of the Lushan '4.20' M7.0 earthquake and its influential factors are analyzed,providing a reference for future seismic intensity assessments.

Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associ- ated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies.In urban centers,the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of'Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios.'The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard,inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk.For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul,two independent approaches,one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements,are utilized.This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study,highlight the method- ology,discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.

Regional Scale Rainfall- and Earthquake-triggered Landslide Susceptibility Assessment in Wudu County, China

Wudu County in northwestern China frequently experiences large-scale landslide events. High-magnitude earthquakes and heavy rainfall events are the major triggering factors in the region. The aim of this research is to compare and combine landslide suseeptibility assessments of rainfall- triggered and earthquake-triggered landslide events in the study area using Geographical Information System （GIS） and a logistic regression model. Two separate susceptibility maps were produeed using inventories reflecting single landslide-triggering events, i.e., earthquakes and heavy rain storms. Two groups of landslides were utilized： one group eontaining all landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events between 1995 and 2003 and the other group containing slope failures caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Subsequently, the individual maps were combined to illustrate the loeations of maximum landslide probability. The use of the resulting three landslide susceptibility maps for landslide forecasting, spatial planning and for developing emergency response actions are discussed. The eombined susceptibility map illustrates the total landslide susceptibility in the study area.

Risk Assessment of Secondary Geological Disasters Induced by the Yushu Earthquake

The Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14,2010 in Qinghai Province,China.It induced a mass of secondary geological disasters,such as collapses,landslides,and debris flows.Risk assessment maps are important for geological disaster prevention and mitigation,and also can serve as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.Firstly,a hazard assessment index system of secondary geological disasters in the earthquake region was built in this paper,which was based on detailed analysis of environmental and triggering factors closely related to geological disasters in the study area.GIS technology was utilized to extract and analyze the assessment index.Hazard assessment maps of secondary geological disasters were obtained by spatial modeling and overlaying analysis.Secondly,an analysis of the vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies in the area was conducted,important information,such as, population density,percentage of arable land, industrial and agricultural outputs per unit area were regarded as assessment indices to evaluate socioeconomic vulnerability.Thirdly,the risk level of secondary geological disasters of the area was obtained by the formula:Risk=Hazard×Vulnerability. Risk assessment maps were categorized into four levels,including"low","moderate","high"and"very high".These results show that some urban areas are at very high risk,including Jiegu,Chengwen,Xiaxiula and Sahuteng towns.This research can provide some references and suggestions to improve decisionmaking support for emergency relief and post- earthquake reconstruction in the study area.

Risk Assessment of Disaster Chain: Experience from Wenchuan Earthquake-induced Landslides in China

This paper deals with the formative process of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster chain risk. Selected earthquake-landslides chain risk is critically evaluated by the probability of landslide displacement failure based on the Newmark's permanent-deformation model. In this context, a conceptual model of regional disaster chain risk assessment was proposed, in which the hazardformative environments sensitivity was the core factor as well as the main difference compared with single disaster risk assessment. The disaster chain risk is accumulation of primary disaster risk and the secondary disasters risks. Results derived from the Wenchuan case proved that the conceptual model was suitable for the disaster chain risk assessment, especially the sudden disaster chain. This experience would offer greater potential in application of conceptual model of disaster chain risk assessment, in the process of large-scale disaster risk governance.

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on c indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades. The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship. Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper. In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.

Post-earthquake building damage assessment in Yushu using airborne SAR imagery

The synthetic aperture radar （SAR） plays an important role in earthquake emergency response because of its all-time and all-weather imaging capabilities. On April 14, 2010, an Ms7.1 earthquake occurred in Yushu county, Qinghai province of China, causing a lot of buildings collapsed. In this paper, the building damage in Yushu city due to the earthquake was assessed quantitatively using high-resolution X-band airborne SAR image. The features of the buildings with different damage levels （collapsed, partial collapsed, non-collapsed） in the SAR image were analyzed first. Based on these building features, we interpreted the individual building damage in Yushu city block by block and got the numbers of the collapsed, partial collapsed and non-collapsed buildings separately for each block, referring to pre-earthquake QuickBird image when necessary. Let the damage index of individual collapsed, partial collapsed, non-collapsed building be 1, 0.5, 0 respectively, the remote sensing damage index of each block was then calculated through remote sensing damage index equation. Finally, the preliminary quantitative relationship between the remote sensing damage index interpreted from the SAR image and that interpreted from the optical image was built up. It can be concluded that a desirable damage assessment result can be derived from high-resolution airborne SAR imagery.

Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method:A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake,Japan

An MW6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido,Japan on September 6th,2018.Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution(3 m)planet satellite,we manually interpret 9293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide,such as elevation,slope,slope direction,road distance,flow distance,peak ground acceleration(PGA)and lithology.Then,9293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3.In detail,the training sample has 6505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2788 landslide points.The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades,including very low risk area,low risk area,moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area.The results show that there are 7576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area,accounting for81.52%of the total landslide number,and the landslide area is 22.93 km^2,accounting for 74.35%of the total area.The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation.The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number.The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50%and the prediction rate is 78.43%.The evaluation results are satisfactory,indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.

Population and housing grid spatialization in Yunnan Province based on grid sampling and application of rapid earthquake loss assessment:the Jinggu Ms6. 6 earthquake

Population and housing grid data spatialization hased on 340 grid samples （ 1 kmx 1 kin） is used in- stead of regional statistical data to simulate the population and housing distribution data of Yunnan Province （ 1 km×1 kin） for rapid loss assessment ibr the Jinggu Ms6.6 earthquake. The resuhs indicate that the method reflects the actual population and housing distribution and that the assessment results are eredihle. The method can be used to quickly provide spatial orientation disaster information after an earthquake.

Rapid assessment of the September 5,2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan,China

At 12:52,September 5,2022,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan.The earthquake caused serious casualties and property loss,and was determined to have an epicenter intensity of Ⅸ degree.In this study,we used three earthquake intensity rapid assessment methods(i.e.WFM,BPM and ASM) to evaluate the intensity of this earthquake.Then,we comparatively analyzed the three methods based on strong ground motion observation data and actual intensity maps.The results show that:(1) The earthquake is associated with a southeast-oriented single-sided rupture.The WFM method can only evaluate earthquakes with two-sided ruptures,which has some limitations;(2) The intensity of BPM and ASM was overestimated on the southwest and north sides of the epicenter,but other high-intensity zones were similar to the intensities measured by actual surveys;(3) The residuals of the three intensity assessment methods were all between-0.5 and 1.Although a small number of stations were underestimated,the overall residuals were good,and the residuals gradually approached 0 with the increase of distance;(4) The number of towns and villages evaluated by the three methods in the earthquake area was almost all lower than the field survey results.One exception is the area of Ⅷ degree,where the BPM and ASM were higher than the survey results;(5) The area of the earthquake area evaluated by the three methods was low in Ⅵ and Ⅶ degree,moderate in Ⅷ degree,and low in Ⅸ degree(the area from ASM is similar to the area measured by actual survey).Overall,ASM is applicable to this earthquake intensity assessment.

A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method(M-CF) for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment:A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method(FW), certainty coefficient method(CF) and geomorphic information entropy method(GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method(M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.

A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquakeinduced landslides and land planning.

Problem and Improvement of R-values Applied to Assessment of Earthquake Forecast

The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that 'anomaly' occurred or no 'anomaly' occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of Rvalue of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.

Assessment of Main Parameters of Extreme Earthquakes in Red Sea, West Coast of Saudi Arabia

The negative effects of natural disasters on human life exist from the foot and did not occur at a specific time but found since the creation of mankind. Humans coexist with extreme events all the time, only when the intensity of the event becomes greater than a certain level there is a resulting disaster. Small earthquakes occur all of the time with no adverse effects. Only large earthquakes cause disasters. Statistical analysis reveals that larger events occur less frequently than small events. Through the large number of seismic events, we find that at the end of the year may have a series of seismic events with different values depending on the strength of activity whether it is high or low on Richter scale and the assessment is only for the greatest value in a year even if recurring this value and the volume of dangerous increases and the frequency of their occurrence according to an ongoing activity, major disasters result from a small number of events and sustained results in a large and devastating event, and can be represented by these results and amounts On a log-scale which points are almost on a straight line and a clear indication of the evaluation event. Through previous data analysis we can understand the following events behavior for coordination and guidance on the development of evacuation plans on the expected future and use a Weibull equation to estimate the frequency of the event and the return again as a percentage for each event and the probability of the occurrence of a particular earthquake to some degree on the Richter scale in the sea during any period. Past records of earthquakes at the West Coast of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (Red Sea) for years 1913-2016 are used to predict future conditions concerning the annual frequency, the return period, the percentage probability for each event, and the probability of a certain-magnitude earthquake occurring in the region during any period.

The housing loss assessment of rural villages caused by earthquake disaster in Yunnan Province

Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more than 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in 1990~2004, the vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural residents in Yunnan Province are setup. The scenario earthquake disaster loss model is used to simulate the housing loss if the historical earthquakes that occurred since A.D. 886 in Yunnan Province reoccur in 2002. The analyses show the simulation deviation of the usual earthquakes is less than 30% and the method is of high practicality. Meanwhile, the simulation result of 398 historical earthquakes in Yunnan Province shows that the annual economic loss caused by the earthquakes is about RMB 410 million Yuan that accounts for 0.18% of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Because the per capita living area and the price of the housing increases year by year, if the historical destructive earthquake reoc- curs today, the loss of Yunnan Province will be greater than in those years.

Application of logistic regression model for hazard assessment of landslides caused by the 2012 Yiliang Ms 5.7 earthquake in Yunnan Province,China

Accurate assessment of seismic landslides hazard is a prerequisite and foundation for postdisaster relief of earthquakes.An Ms 5.7 earthquake occurring on September 7,2012,in Yiliang County,Yunnan Province,China,triggered hundreds of landslides.To explore the characteristics of coseismic landslides caused by this moderate-strong earthquake and their significance in predicting seismic landslides regionally,this study uses an artificial visual interpretation method based on a planet image with 5-m resolution to obtain the information of the coseismic landslides and establishes a coseismic landslide database containing data on 232 landslides.Nine influencing factors of landslides were selected for this study:elevation,relative elevation,slope angle,aspect,slope position,distance to river system,distance to faults,strata,and peak ground acceleration.The real probability of coseismic landslide occurrence is calculated by combining the Bayesian probability and logistic regression model.Based on the coseismic landslides,the probabilities of landslide occurrence under different peak ground acceleration are predicted using a logistic regression model.Finally,the model established in this paper is used to calculate the landslide probability of the Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake that occurred in August 2014,78.9 km away from the macro-epicenter of the Yiliang earthquake.The probability is verified by the real coseismic landslides of this earthquake,which confirms the reliability of the method presented in this paper.This study proves that the model established according to the seismic landslides triggered by one earthquake has a good effect on the seismic landslides hazard assessment of similar magnitude,and can provide a reference for seismic landslides prediction of moderate-strong earthquakes in this region.

Emergency Seismic Damage Assessment of the M_S8.0 Great Wenchuan Earthquake Based on Remote Sensing Imagery

The fast processing, seismic damage data extraction and loss evaluation from RS imagery acquired immediately after a destructive earthquake occurs, are important means for compen- sating the insufficiency of seismic damage information from ground-based investigations and provide an important basis for emergency command and rescue. The paper introduces the method of emergency seismic damage assessment using remote sensing data and its application to the great Wenchuan earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurring in southwest Sichuan Province on May 12, 2008. The practical effectiveness of the method is also evaluated in the paper.