Study on evaluation of cities' ability reducing earthquake disasters

Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.

Research on strong earthquake type division and forecast method for subsequent strong earthquakes

The relationships between energy, amplitude and frequency of eanhquake are correlative with the property of the seismic source. And the grade of the correlativity can be used as an index to distinguish the types of strong earth quakes. Primarily the strong earthquake can be divided into three types of main-after earthquakes, double-main earthquakes and swarm of strong earthquake. There are similarity and a certain repeatability at the quantificational indexes of hypocenter property between the same type of strong earthquakes, which supply basis for the forecast of subsequent strong shocks. The reference indexes of after strong shock forecast which are valuable for the applica tions of the method of type-divided forecast come from the analysis about more than fifty strong shock wide-band (BPZ wave) recording data of CDSN from 1988 to 1997.

Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping at the Microscale Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method

Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.Therefore,it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales.In this study,a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed.With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space,buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis.The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey,with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity.The index was represented by the building vulnerability,socioeconomic vulnerability,and vulnerability of the built environment.To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from,an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed.Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped,a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability,and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk.With its objectivity and straightforward implementation,the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.