Influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on earthquake occurrence trend of active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region

The Wenchuan earthquake coseismic deformation field is inferred from the coseismic dislocation data based on a 3-D geometric model of the active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Then the potential dislocation displacement is inverted from the deformation field in the 3-D geometric model. While the faults＇ slip velocities are inverted from GPS and leveling data, which can be used as the long-term slip vector. After the potential dislocation displacements are projected to long-term slip direction, we have got the influence of Wenchuan earthquake on active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that the northwestern segment of Longmenshan fault, the southern segments of Xianshuihe fault, Anninghe fault, Zemuhe fault, northern and southern segments of Daliangshan fault, Mabian fault got earthquake risks advanced of 305, 19, 12, 9.1 and 18, 51 years respectively in the eastern part of Sichuan and Yunnan. The Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault, Nujiang fault, Longling-Lancang fault, Nantinghe fault and Zhongdian fault also got earthquake risks advanced in the western part of Sichuan-Yunnan region. Whereas the northwestern segment of Xianshuihe fault and Xiaojiang fault got earthquake risks reduced after the Wenchuan earthquake.

Some thoughts on seismotectonics of major earthquake occurrence zones in China

A major earthquake occurrence zone means a place where M ≥6 events have occurred since the Holocene and similar shocks may happen again in the future. The dynamic context of the major earthquake occurrence zones in China is primarily associated with the NNE-directed push of the India plate, next with the westward subduction of the Pacific plate. The Chinese mainland is a grand mosaic structure of many crust blocks bounded by faults and sutures. When it is suffered from boundary stresses, deformation takes place along these faults or sutures while the block interiors remain relatively stable or intact. Since the Quaternary, for example, left slip on the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault zone in southwestern China has produced a number of fault-depression basins in extensional areas during periods Q1 and Q2. In the Q3, the change of stress orientation and enhancement of tectonic movement made faults of varied trends link each other, and continued to be active till present day, producing active fanlt zones in this region. Usually major earthquakes occur at some special locations on these active fault zones. During these events, in the epicenter areas experience intensive deformation character- ized by large-amplitude rise and fall of neighboring sections, generation of horst-graben systems and dammed rivers. The studies on palaeoearthquakes suggest that major shocks of close magnitudes often repeated for several times at a same place. By comparison of the Chi-Chi, Taiwan event in 1999 and Yuza, Yunnan event in 1955, including contours of accelerations and intensities, destruction of buildings, and in contrast to the Xigeda formation in southwestern China, a sandwich model is established to account for the mechanism of deformation caused by major earthquakes. This model consists of three layers, i.e. the two walls of a fault and the ruptured zone intercalated between them. This ruptured zone is just the loci where stress is built up and released, and serves as a channel for seismic waves.

Research on the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence in the Daduhe Drainage Area

This paper applies the Seismic Hazard Analysis method for the cities of China to research on the probability of earthquake occurrence in the Daduhe drainage area,where the cascade dam system is located.This research is based on the potential seismic source scheme of the Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China(2001),and uses Poisson distribution as an earthquake occurrence model.Earthquake magnitude obeys truncated exponential distribution.The spatial distribution function of the potential seismic source zone is taken as the first-class spatial probability distribution,and the homogeneous probability distribution in the potential seismic source zone as the second-class spatial probability distribution.Considering the seismic intensity attenuation relationship of western China,we compute the occurrence probability of an earthquake around magnitude 6.0(5.5～6.5),7.0(6.5～7.5)and over 7.5 in the Daduhe drainage area,where 22 series cascade dams will be built.The results can be used for hydropower plant planning,hydropower dam site selection and seismic fortification.

Study on Medium- and Long-term Strong Earthquake Risk Along the Zhangjiakou-Penglai Fault Zone

The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.

The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes

This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks indicates that the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks is modulated by the positions of the sun and moon and then the earthquake restrained time zones exists also. In this paper the differences of earthquake restrained time zones between the preshock sequences and the aftershock sequences are compared, and the possible mechanism is analyzed preliminarily. And the possible maximum scope of accuracy in predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake is determined as well.