The Formation of Oscillation Patterns Based on the Planetary Gravitational Field and Their Suitability for Earthquake Prediction

The fluctuating planetary gravitational field influences not only activities on the Sun but also on the Earth. A special correlation function describes the harmonics of these fluctuations. Groups of earthquakes form oscillation patterns that differ significantly from randomly chosen control groups. These patterns are suitable as an element of an AI for the probability of earthquakes.

A Retrospective Analysis about the Italy Emilia M6.0 Earthquake Prediction

Cloud anomaly is a new kind of earthquake precursor that is still in the great controversy. Here we report an example of earthquake prediction based on cloud satellite anomaly. According to the cloud anomaly that appeared over eastern Italy on 21-23 April 2012, we made a prediction to Italy National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) that there will be a M5.5 - M6.0 earthquake in Italy in 30 days. Finally, the M6.0 quake occurred in northern Italy on 20 May 2012 and this verified our prediction. In this paper we extend the cloud image data from 2010 to 2013 and found 23 cloud anomalies totally, among them only the duration of the cloud on April 21-23 2012 exceed the 2 times, even 3 times of standard deviation threshold and it can be considered as a significant anomaly. Our analysis shows that the quake’s date and magnitude can be estimated accurately with the formula, and the epicenter can be estimated with the temperature anomaly method with 100 - 200 km error. This paper shows a promising method in earthquake prediction, of course it is only one example, and it still needs more examples to verify this method.

Cross-fault Newton force measurement for Earthquake prediction

Earthquake prediction is a common scientific challenge for academics worldwide.This dilemma originates from the lack of precursory indicators that meet the sufficient and necessary conditions of earthquake occurrence,which may be the root cause of the failure of earthquake prediction.In light of this,a double-block catastrophic mechanics theory for earthquakes based on cross-fault Newton force measurement is proposed herein.Based on this theory and laboratory physical model tests of seismic Newton force monitoring,a new academic thought is envisioned“the sufficient and necessary condition for earthquake occurrence is the change of Newton force,and the sudden drop of Newton force on the fault surface can be used as a predictor of earthquake disaster.”Several equipment systems have been independently developed,and the technology has been successfully applied to engineering practice.This concept has currently been proven in small-scale double-block catastrophic events such as landslides.Based on the double-block catastrophic mechanics theory,landslides and earthquakes have the similar nature but different scales.According to the on-site monitoring of landslides,it is verified that the sudden drop of Newton force can be used as a predictor of landslide disaster which successfully solves the problem of short-term landslide prediction.The introduction of cross-fault Newton force measurement technology and idea has laid a foundation for improving the method and level of international earthquake monitoring and solving the world-class scientific problem of short-term earthquake prediction.

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

Catastrophic failure mechanism of rock masses system and earthquake prediction based on percolation theory

The failure of rocks is a complicated process as the mechanical properties of the rock are governed by loading history and cumulative ruptures.The geometric aspects of fractures,such as the size and shape of the fractures,the spatial distribution of the fracture networks,and the relations among these aspects also depend on the loads acting on rock mass.In general,the fractures are randomly generated in space which is difficult to be described using mathematical methods.In this paper,the failure processes of rock have been analyzed using the percolation theory.The results indicate that the failure process of rock is a transition from a stable state to an unstable state.This phenomenon is essentially consistent with the phase transition in the percolation theory.Based on this consistency,a theoretical model of percolation for earthquake prediction is proposed.A large number of seismic data provided strong evidence in support of the reliability and applicability of this model.

A review of tidal triggering of global earthquakes

Earthquake prediction remains a challenging and difficult task for scientists all over the world.The tidal triggering of earthquakes is being proven by an increasing number of investigations,most of which have shown that earthquakes are positively correlated with tides,and thus,tides provide a potential tool for earthquake prediction,especially for imminent earthquakes.In this study,publications concerning the tidal triggering of earthquakes were compiled and analyzed with regard to global earthquakes,which were classified into three main types:tectonic,volcanic,and slow earthquakes.The results reveal a high correlation between tectonic earthquakes and tides(mainly for semidiurnal and diurnal tides;14-day tides) before and after the occurrence of significant earthquakes.For volcanic earthquakes,observations of volcanoes on the seafloor and land indicate that volcanic earthquakes in near-shore volcanic areas and mid-ocean ridges have a strong correlation with tidal forces,mostly those with semidiurnal and diurnal periods.For slow earthquakes,the periodicity of the tremor duration is highly correlated with semidiurnal and diurnal tides.In conclusion,the tidal triggering of these three types of earthquakes makes a positive contribution to earthquake preparation and understanding the triggering mechanism,and thus,the prediction of these types of earthquakes should be investigated.However,there are still several inadequacies on this topic that need to be resolved to gain a definitiveanswer regarding the tidal triggering of all earthquakes.The main inadequacies are discussed in this paper from our point of view.

Can Satellites Aid Earthquake Predictions?

地震预测的不精确性一直困扰着科学家。目前,科学家们运用卫星技术监测地壳运动,以此进行地震预测。那么卫星技术是如何运作的?这种技术的精确性又如何呢?

An Attempt to Analyze a Human Nervous System Algorithm for Sensing Earthquake Precursors

We statistically validate the 2011-2022 earthquake prediction records of Ada, the sixth finalist of the 2nd China AETA in 2021, who made 147 earthquake predictions (including 60% of magnitude 5.5 earthquakes) with a prediction accuracy higher than 70% and a confidence level of 95% over a 12-year period. Since the reliable earthquake precursor signals described by Ada and the characteristics of Alfvén waves match quite well, this paper proposes a hypothesis on how earthquakes are triggered based on the Alfvén (Q G) torsional wave model of Gillette et al. When the plume of the upper mantle column intrudes into the magma and lithosphere of the soft flow layer during the exchange of hot and cold molten material masses deep inside the Earth’s interior during ascent and descent, it is possible to form body and surface plasma sheets under certain conditions to form Alfven nonlinear isolated waves, and Alfven waves often perturb the geomagnetic field, releasing huge heat and kinetic energy thus triggering earthquakes. To explain the complex phenomenon of how Ada senses Alvfen waves and how to locate epicenters, we venture to speculate that special magnetosensory cells in a few human bodies can sense earthquake precursors and attempt to hypothesize an algorithm that analyzes how the human biological nervous system encodes and decodes earthquake precursors and explains how human magnetosensory cells can solve complex problems such as predicting earthquake magnitude and locating epicenters.

The ultra-low-frequency magnetic disturbances associated with earthquakes

The ultra-low-frequency(ULF) electromagnetic emission is recently recognized as one of the most promising candidates for short-term earthquake(EQ) prediction.This paper reviews previous convincing evidence on the presence of ULF emissions before three major EQs.Then,we present further statistical study on the ULF occurrence,our networks of ULF monitoring in different spatial scales in Japan and finally we present several signal processings to identify the seismogenic emissions by showing latest results for recent large EQs.

Relation between the evolution of seismic apparent strain field and the region of strong earthquake occurrence

In this paper, according to the data on the middle and strong earthquakes in China, we have preliminarily studied the relation between the characteristic of space-time evolution of the seismic apparent strain field and the regions of 31 macroseism events since 1955. The result shows that, there is a rather well correlation between the anomaly region of seismic apparent strain and the zone of macroseism event occurrence within the time range of one to about five years. The R value of the application of the abnormal region of seismic apparent strain to predicting the area of strong earthquake occurrence is 0.458, and the empirical possibility of forecasting the region of macroseism occurrence is 0.625, and so the forecasting effect is comparatively well. Finally, the main results obtained above are discussed preliminarily.

The Theoretical and Practical Foundations of Strong Earthquake Predictability

Earthquakes and the tsunamis they produce are the world’s most devastating natural disasters, affecting more than 100 countries. Not surprisingly, the problem of earthquake prediction has occupied scientists’ minds for more than two thousand years. This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on identifying stressed areas that begin to behave abnormally before strong events, with the size of these areas corresponding to Dobrovolsky’s formula. We make predictions by combining knowledge from many different disciplines: physics, geophysics, seismology, geology, and earth science, among others. An integrated approach is used to identify anomalies and make predictions, including satellite remote sensing techniques and data from ground-based instruments. Terabytes of information are currently processed every day with many different multi-parametric prediction systems applied thereto. Alerts are issued if anomalies are confirmed by a few different systems. It has been found that geophysical patterns of earthquake preparation and stress accumulation are similar for all key seismic regions. The same earthquake prediction methodologies and systems have been successfully applied in global practice since 2013, with the technology successfully used to retrospectively test against more than 700 strong and major earthquakes since 1970. In other words, the earthquake prediction problem has largely been solved. Throughout 2017-2021, results were presented to more than 160 professors from 63 countries.

Inter-event times between the moderate-large earthquakes in Iran

Persian territory,which is dividable into major seismotectonic provinces,always suffers from damages of moderate and large earthquakes from ancient era to modern time.Therefore,temporal prediction of earthquake occurrence in this kind of area is an important topic.For this purpose,628 moderate-large(5.5≤MS≤8.2)earthquakes occurred in Persia during the period from 400 B.C.to 2015 C.E.were used.Considering the magnitudes of events preceding main shocks and the annual seismic moment release in seismic source areas in the provinces,we calibrated equations predicting inter-event time of occurrence of moderate and large earthquakes(MW>5.5)in Iran.In each source area,inter-event times between moderate and large shocks with magnitudes equal to or larger than a certain cut-off magnitude(MW5.5)were calculated.The inter-event times between the earthquakes were used to compute the relationships using multiple regression technique.Calculated relationships express the basic idea of the time predictable model predicting the occurrence time of the future main shock in a certain seismogen area.However,despite of unavoidable scatter in observations and uncertainties in the results,occurrence times of main shocks during the next years and decades in some source areas in Iran were determined.

Predicting the 2019 M7 Strong Earthquake in California

The U.S. Geological Survey has estimated a 99% chance of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in California in the next 30 years from 2008. In this paper, Fourier transform, mode analysis and commensurability analysis are used to study the earthquake cycle in California and predict the future strong earthquake. The analysis shows that the strong earthquake in California is most likely to occur in 2019, and the prediction was sent to the relevant institutions of United States in 2018. In July 2019 an M7.1 earthquake occurred in California, which proved our prediction to be correct.

Imminent Earthquake Forecasting on the Basis of Japan INTERMAGNET Stations, NEIC, NOAA and Tide Code Data Analysis

This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquakes’ magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis of geophysical variables-precursors. Among many possible precursors the most reliable are the geoelectromagnetic field, the boreholes water level, radon earth-surface concentration, the local heat flow, ionosphere variables, low frequency atmosphere and Earth core waves. The title demonstrates that only geomagnetic data are used in this study. Within the framework of geomagnetic quake approach it is possible to perform an imminent regional seismic activity forecasting on the basis of simple analysis of geomagnetic data which use a new variable SChtM with dimension surface density of energy. Such analysis of Japan Memambetsu, Kakioka, Kanoya INTERMAGNET stations and NEIC earthquakes data, the hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is this with biggest value of the variable SChtM permits to formulate an inverse problem (overdetermined algebraic system) for precursor’s signals like a function of earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance from a monitoring point. Thus, in the case of data acquisition network system existence, which includes monitoring of more than one reliable precursor variables in at least four points distributed within the area with a radius of up to 700 km, there will be enough algebraic equations for calculation of impending earthquake’s magnitude, depth and distance, solving the overdetermined algebraic system.

Research on history of Chinese seismology

The history of Chinese seismology can be traced back to four thousand years before and divided into four stages,i.e.,primitive knowledge,worship of nature,perceptual knowledge and scientific research.The second stage ran in the whole Qin-Han dynasties,and the fourth stage began from Emperor Kangxi in Qing Dynasty and continued to the present.So far China has made four great contributions to seismological development of the world,i.e.,the invention of Heng Zhang's seismoscope,great amount of historical records of earthquakes of four thousand years,most abundant anomaly data before earthquakes,and successful practice of earthquake prediction in Haicheng.However,the seismological research in China at present is still on the junior and developing stage.Now we have been carrying on some recessively historical load in our mind such as the subconsciousness of absolute obedience,habit of phenomenological study as well as the methods of philosophical analysis without sincerity.For constructing a high-level Chinese culture in seismological research,we need to pay attention to combining the phenomenological research with experiment,observation and theory study.It is also suggested to take the appropriated measures matched with the present research level in seismology,as well as to promote coexisting and merging of multi-cultures.

Automatic Anomaly Detection for Swarm Observations

The Swarm satellite mission was launched on 22 November 2013,it is the first European Space Agency’s constellation of three satellites,dedicated to monitoring geomagnetic field changes.The measurements delivered by the three satellites are very valuable for a range of applications,including the earthquake prediction study.However,for more than 5 years,relatively little advancement has been achieved in establishing a systematic approach for detecting anomalies from the satellite measurements for predicting earthquakes.This paper presents the challenges of developing a pragmatic framework for automatic anomaly detection and highlights innovative features of functional components developed.Through a case study we demonstrate a functionality pipeline of the system in detecting anomalies,and present our solutions to coping with data sparsity and parameter tuning as well as insights into the differences between discovering seismic anomalies from periodic and non-periodic data observed by the Swarm satellites.

Comprehensive Studies of Seismic Forecast and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Armenia, Current State and Prospects

The study of geophysical processes in different layers of the Earth,seismic hazard assessment,earthquake prediction,etc.are topical fundamental and applied problems.The development of a modern adequate methodology for assessing seismic hazards,operational forecasting of earthquakes.

The Statistical Relationship between the Maximum Amplitude of the Body Strain Record and the Surface-wave Magnitude and Epicenter Distance

Based on the body strain record of Tiantanghe station from 2008 to 2014,we make a statistical analysis of the relationship between the maximum amplitude of the body strain record and the surface-wave magnitude,epicenter distance of the earthquakes,which occurred in the Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas with MS≥6. 0 and the rest of the world with MS≥7. 0. According to statistical results,we propose a statistical formula between the surface-wave magnitude of earthquake and the maximum amplitude of the body strain record,the epicenter distance: M_S~*= 0. 37 ln A_max+ 0. 57 ln D + 0. 07. We can also derive a theoretical estimation formula for the maximum amplitude: A_max=e^(2. 7(M_S^*-0. 07))D^(-1. 54). This demonstrates that the maximum amplitude of the body strain record increases exponentially with the increase of the surface-wave magnitude, and decreases with the increase of the epicenter distance,and shows a negative correlation with their product. We further discuss the necessity of adding instruments with high frequency sampling to earthquake monitoring, and dicuss the prospects for precise earthquake prediction in future.

A Study on the Correlation of Milk Yield of Cows with Seismicity and ULF Magnetic Field Variations

A statistical study on the basis of one-year data of 2014 has been performed in order to find whether abnormal animal behavior is related with seismic activity and also whether the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) electromagnetic radiation might be a possible sensory mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Abnormal animal behavior has been studied with the use of digitally recorded milk yield of cows at Ibaraki Prefecture Livestock Station, and the ULF magnetic field changes have been studied with the data at a magnetic observatory of Kakioka. As the result of correlation analyses, clear responses are observed for both the milk yield of cows and ULF magnetic field changes (both ULF radiation (ULF emissions from the lithosphere) and ULF depression (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbations)) for most powerful and not distant earthquakes (EQs) with magnitude > 6, that is, the milk yield of cows is found to exhibit a conspicuous depletion about 17 - 18 days before an EQ, though the correlation coefficient is not so big. Another important objective in this paper is to identify that ULF radiation is the main agent of abnormal behavior so that we have compared the temporal evolutions of milk yield of cows, ULF radiation and ULF depression for three major EQs. As a result, it is found that ULF radiation happens, at least, during the periods of abnormal depletion of milk yield of cows.

Can we predict earthquakes with GPS data?

Prediction of earthquakes using GPS remains an unsolved but important problem.Pre-signals in terms of changes in triangular networks of GPS Stations were examined for many large earthquakes in Japan and in other Asian regions.I discovered that the occurrence and location of an earthquake can be predicted with pre-signals found in GPS data analysis.However,more research is required to predict how many days after the pre-signals an earthquake will occur.