Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting(early warning)has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures(buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.

Unusual Change in Critical Frequency of F₂Layer during and Prior to Earthquakes

The unusualness in the critical frequency of different layers of earth’s ionosphere is commensurate to be associated with seismic events. We present study of critical frequency of F2 layer (denoted as f0F2) during some major earthquakes in South American region. We use the semi-empirical Barbier’s theorem of air-glow and define a parameter using the critical frequency and virtual height of F2 layer and named it as “F Parameter”. To investigate the variation of this parameter, we consider five large earthquakes in the junction of Nazca plate and South American plate having magnitude greater than M > 6.5 and study the temporal variation of F parameter during these earthquakes. The F Parameter is measured using the ionograms as recorded from the Ionosonde in Jicamarca Radio Observatory (lat. 11.95°S, long 76.87°W) in Chile which lies within the earthquake preparation zones of these five earthquakes. We examine the F Parameter within a span of ±15 days during earthquakes and observed significant change in the evaluated F Parameter in 12 to 3 days prior to the earthquakes. The increment is over +3σ from the normal variation. We also observe significant changes during aftershock events. The solar geomagnetic indices were found to be low which ensures that these anomalies in F Parameter are due to seismic events.

地震预测与预警探讨

通过对地震预测的自然属性和社会属性的分析,研究了针对自然属性的地震预测和针对社会属性的地震预测(预警)及两者之间的关系。针对自然属性的地震预测,只是根据对观测数据的分析和相关理论的研究,考虑现阶段对地震孕育、发生的认识,给出未来地震发生的规模、地点及时间,不考虑预测后果,目的是检验对地震的科学认识水平。而针对社会属性的地震预测,除依据地震自然属性的预测结果外,还要重点考虑地震预测的后果,除考虑地震预测本身的不确定性以外,还要考虑发布地震预报造成的影响,以及建(构)筑物和生命线工程的抗震能力等复杂因素,总之突出考虑地震预测的风险,目的是最大限度地减轻地震造成的灾害。本文对地震预测面临的科学挑战和社会挑战进行了一定的讨论,并对地震预警的含义和研究内容进行了初步的分析。