Relative Impacts of Sea Ice Loss and Atmospheric Internal Variability on the Winter Arctic to East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on Large-Ensemble Simulations with NorESM2

To quantify the relative contributions of Arctic sea ice and unforced atmospheric internal variability to the “warm Arctic, cold East Asia”(WACE) teleconnection, this study analyses three sets of large-ensemble simulations carried out by the Norwegian Earth System Model with a coupled atmosphere–land surface model, forced by seasonal sea ice conditions from preindustrial, present-day, and future periods. Each ensemble member within the same set uses the same forcing but with small perturbations to the atmospheric initial state. Hence, the difference between the present-day(or future) ensemble mean and the preindustrial ensemble mean provides the ice-loss-induced response, while the difference of the individual members within the present-day(or future) set is the effect of atmospheric internal variability. Results indicate that both present-day and future sea ice loss can force a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation with a WACE pattern in winter. The magnitude of ice-induced Arctic warming is over four(ten) times larger than the ice-induced East Asian cooling in the present-day(future) experiment;the latter having a magnitude that is about 30% of the observed cooling. Sea ice loss contributes about 60%(80%) to the Arctic winter warming in the present-day(future) experiment. Atmospheric internal variability can also induce a WACE pattern with comparable magnitudes between the Arctic and East Asia. Ice-lossinduced East Asian cooling can easily be masked by atmospheric internal variability effects because random atmospheric internal variability may induce a larger magnitude warming. The observed WACE pattern occurs as a result of both Arctic sea ice loss and atmospheric internal variability, with the former dominating Arctic warming and the latter dominating East Asian cooling.

Synergistic effects of Pleistocene geological and climatic events on complex phylogeographic history of widespread sympatric species of Megaloptera in East Asia

Unraveling the phylogeographic histories of species remains a key endeavor for comprehending the evolutionary processes contributing to the rich biodiversity and high endemism found in East Asia.In this study,we explored the phylogeographic patterns and demographic histories of three endemic fishfly and dobsonfly species(Neochauliodes formosanus,Protohermes costalis,and Neoneuromus orientalis)belonging to the holometabolan order Megaloptera.These species,which share a broad and largely overlapping distribution,were analyzed using comprehensive mitogenomic data.Our findings revealed a consistent influence of vicariance on the population isolation of Neoc.formosanus and P.costalis between Hainan,Taiwan,and the East Asian mainland during the early Pleistocene,potentially hindering subsequent colonization of the later diverged Neon.orientalis to these islands.Additionally,we unveiled the dual function of the major mountain ranges in East Asia,serving both as barriers and conduits,in shaping the population structure of all three species.Notably,we demonstrated that these co-distributed species originated from Southwest,Southern,and eastern Central China,respectively,then subsequently migrated along multi-directional routes,leading to their sympatric distribution on the East Asian mainland.Furthermore,our results highlighted the significance of Pleistocene land bridges along the eastern coast of East Asia in facilitating the dispersal of mountain-dwelling insects with low dispersal ability.Overall,this study provides novel insight into the synergistic impact of Pleistocene geological and climatic events in shaping the diversity and distribution of aquatic insects in East Asia.

IMpower210:A phase Ⅲ study of second-line atezolizumab vs. docetaxel in East Asian patients with non-small cell lung cancer

Objective: IMpower210(NCT02813785) explored the efficacy and safety of single-agent atezolizumab vs.docetaxel as second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) in East Asian patients.Methods: Key eligibility criteria for this phase Ⅲ, open-label, randomized study included age ≥18 years;histologically documented advanced NSCLC per the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system(7th edition);Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1;and disease progression following platinum-based chemotherapy for advanced or metastatic NSCLC. Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive either atezolizumab(1,200 mg) or docetaxel(75 mg/m^(2)). The primary study endpoint was overall survival(OS) in the intention-to-treat(ITT) population with wild-type epidermal growth factor receptor expression(ITT EGFR-WT) and in the overall ITT population.Results: Median OS in the ITT EGFR-WT population(n=467) was 12.3 [95% confidence interval(95% CI),10.3-13.8] months in the atezolizumab arm(n=312) and 9.9(95% CI, 7.8-13.9) months in the docetaxel arm[n=155;stratified hazard ratio(HR), 0.82;95% CI, 0.66-1.03]. Median OS in the overall ITT population was 12.5(95% CI, 10.8-13.8) months with atezolizumab treatment and 11.1(95% CI, 8.4-14.2) months(n=377) with docetaxel treatment(n=188;stratified HR, 0.87;95% CI, 0.71-1.08). Grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events(TRAEs) occurred in 18.4% of patients in the atezolizumab arm and 50.0% of patients in the docetaxel arm.Conclusions: IMpower210 did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of OS in the ITT EGFR-WT or overall ITT populations. Atezolizumab was comparatively more tolerable than docetaxel, with a lower incidence of grade3/4 TRAEs.

Leading Pattern of Spring Drought Variability over East Asia and Associated Drivers

Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades,leading to huge socioeconomic impacts.Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions,their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear.Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020,this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers.The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades,while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness.The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern,with more severe dryness in northwestern China,Mongolia,North China,South Korea,and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia.Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry(wet)surface in North(Southwestern)China is significantly associated with anomalously high(low)temperature,less(more)precipitation,and reduced(increased)soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring,regulated by an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)and thus reduced(increased)water vapor convergence.The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.

The Use of Hand Stamps in the Manuscript Maps Drawn by East Asian Countries in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

It was generally accepted that manuscript maps,as distinct from printed maps,exhibited no signs of printing and were entirely hand-drawn.Western scholars Christopher Terrell and Tony Campbell were the first to break this stereotype in 1987,followed by Catherine Delano-Smith and Chet Van Duzer who discovered a few Renaissance maps and two Qing dynasty maps that showed use of hand stamps.Inspired by these findings,this paper explores the stamped map signs in ten Chinese maps,three Japanese maps,and three Korean maps.By analyzing each map and each type of stamp,this paper provides more examples of this research,broadens the research horizons and geographical area,and demonstrates that use of stamps in manuscript maps was invented independently among people of different regions and civilizations as a result of human nature.

Linkage Between European and East Asian Heatwaves on Synoptic Scales

Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies.By using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe,even though they are geographically far away from each other.By further composite analysis,this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe,typically with a time lag of3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave events.An eastward propagating atmospheric wave train,known as the circumglobal teleconnection(CGT)pattern,bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote regions.Atmospheric blockings,amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe,not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low pressures.Subsequent downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation,thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East Asia.Nearly half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave events.This investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.

Analyzing the Impacts on East Asia of Trump’s Potential Return

The 2024 election is a pivotal and highly contested event in the United States.Donald Trump is expected to compete against Joe Biden without any doubts.A potential return of Trump to the White House would likely cause significant reactions in East Asia,particularly among the three major countries in the region.This analysis will explore the detailed implications of Trump’s return.

Impact of Revised Trigger and Closure of the Double-Plume Convective Parameterization on Precipitation Simulations over East Asia

A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.

Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

The Relationship between Model Biases in East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Land Evaporation

The East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia.Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall,the spread of projections is large and simulations of present-day rainfall show significant climatological biases.Systematic evapotranspiration biases occur locally over East Asia,and globally over land,in simulations both with and without a coupled ocean.This study explores the relationship between evapotranspiration and EASM precipitation biases.First,idealized model simulations are presented in which the parameterization of land evaporation is modified,while sea surface temperature is fixed.The results suggest a feedback whereby excessive evapotranspiration over East Asia results in cooling of land,a weakened monsoon low,and a shift of rainfall from the Philippine Sea to China,further fueling evapotranspiration.Cross-model regressions against evapotranspiration over China indicate a similar pattern of behavior in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations.Possible causes of this pattern are investigated.The feedback is not explained by an overly intense global hydrological cycle or by differences in radiative processes.Analysis of land-only simulations indicates that evapotranspiration biases are present even when models are forced with prescribed rainfall.These are strengthened when coupled to the atmosphere,suggesting a role for land-model errors in driving atmospheric biases.Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are shown to have similar evapotranspiration biases to those in AMIP over China,but different precipitation biases,including a northward shift in the ITCZ over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Interannual Meridional Displacement of the Upper-Tropospheric Westerly Jet over Western East Asia in Summer

The interannual meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the eastern portion of East Asia in summer has been well documented.This study,however,investigates the interannual meridional displacement of the westerly jet over the western portion of East Asia in summer,which is distinct from its eastern counterpart.The results show that the meridional displacement of the western East Asian jet shows a clear asymmetric feature;that is,there are remarkable differences between the southward and northward displacement of the jet.The southward displacement of the jet corresponds to suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific and Maritime Continent and enhanced convection in the equatorial Pacific,which can be explained by the warmer sea surfaces found in the northern Indian Ocean and equatorial eastern Pacific.These tropical anomalies somewhat resemble those associated with the eastern East Asian jet variability.However,the northward displacement of the western East Asian jet does not correspond to significant convection and SST anomalies in the entire tropics;instead,the northward displacement of the jet corresponds well to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.Furthermore,the meridional displacement of the western jet has asymmetric impacts on rainfall and surface air temperatures in East Asia.When the western jet shifts northward,more precipitation is found over South China and Northeast China,and higher temperatures appear in northern China.By contrast,when the jet shifts southward,more precipitation appears over the East Asian rainy belt,including the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,and southern and central Japan and warmer temperatures are found South and Southeast Asia.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Synoptic-scale reversal of dipole surface temperature anomalies over East Asia and Central Siberia in November 2021

2021年11月,东亚与中西伯利亚经历了相反的冷暖异常转换,表现为“中西伯利亚偏冷,东亚偏暖”与“中西伯利亚偏暖,东亚偏冷”的交替出现.该偶极型气温异常的天气尺度反转伴随着大尺度大气环流异常的反转.进一步分析表明,东亚与中西伯利亚的偶极型气温异常反转是1979-2021年期间11月欧亚气温日变化的主导模态之一(发生概率超过56%).

Impact of Tropical Indian Ocean Temperature on the Ozone Layer in East Asia

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from British Hadley Center and ozone mass mixing ratio from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during 1980-2015, two indexes IOBI and IODI of the main modes characterizing SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean——Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were calculated firstly, and then the correlation of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean and ozone mass mixing ratio in the stratosphere over East Asia from 1980 to 2015 was analyzed. Besides, the impact of SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean on the distribution of ozone layer in East Asia was discussed. The results show that SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean had significant effects on stratospheric ozone distribution in East Asia, and it was consistent with the temporal changes of IOB and IOD. IOBI and IODI had a certain correlation with stratospheric ozone changes in East Asia, with a particularly significant correlation in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) and middle stratosphere (40 hPa) especially during spring and autumn.

A Modeling Study of the Effects of Direct Radiative Forcing Due to Carbonaceous Aerosol on the Climate in East Asia

The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.

Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon

We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period 1979–2005.All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models,current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases,a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient,a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability,and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia.Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon.The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects.Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.

Variations in Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Northern East Asia

Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis （ERA-40） sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in East Asia Simulated by the MRI CGCM2

Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Prediction of Decadal Variability of East Asian Surface Air Temperature Based on IPCC-AR5 Near-term Climate Simulations

Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 （The Fifth Assessment Report）, probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction （PMME） of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia （20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E） was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing （GED） methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal （1981-2010） mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades （2006-35） over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 （Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2） scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K （30 yr）-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn （mainly）, faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.