Leading Pattern of Spring Drought Variability over East Asia and Associated Drivers

Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades,leading to huge socioeconomic impacts.Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions,their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear.Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020,this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers.The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades,while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness.The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern,with more severe dryness in northwestern China,Mongolia,North China,South Korea,and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia.Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry(wet)surface in North(Southwestern)China is significantly associated with anomalously high(low)temperature,less(more)precipitation,and reduced(increased)soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring,regulated by an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)and thus reduced(increased)water vapor convergence.The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.

The Relationship between Model Biases in East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Land Evaporation

The East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia.Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall,the spread of projections is large and simulations of present-day rainfall show significant climatological biases.Systematic evapotranspiration biases occur locally over East Asia,and globally over land,in simulations both with and without a coupled ocean.This study explores the relationship between evapotranspiration and EASM precipitation biases.First,idealized model simulations are presented in which the parameterization of land evaporation is modified,while sea surface temperature is fixed.The results suggest a feedback whereby excessive evapotranspiration over East Asia results in cooling of land,a weakened monsoon low,and a shift of rainfall from the Philippine Sea to China,further fueling evapotranspiration.Cross-model regressions against evapotranspiration over China indicate a similar pattern of behavior in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations.Possible causes of this pattern are investigated.The feedback is not explained by an overly intense global hydrological cycle or by differences in radiative processes.Analysis of land-only simulations indicates that evapotranspiration biases are present even when models are forced with prescribed rainfall.These are strengthened when coupled to the atmosphere,suggesting a role for land-model errors in driving atmospheric biases.Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are shown to have similar evapotranspiration biases to those in AMIP over China,but different precipitation biases,including a northward shift in the ITCZ over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

Spatio-temporal variations in trends of vegetation and drought changes in relation to climate variability from 1982 to 2019 based on remote sensing data from East Asia

Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.

Interannual Meridional Displacement of the Upper-Tropospheric Westerly Jet over Western East Asia in Summer

The interannual meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the eastern portion of East Asia in summer has been well documented.This study,however,investigates the interannual meridional displacement of the westerly jet over the western portion of East Asia in summer,which is distinct from its eastern counterpart.The results show that the meridional displacement of the western East Asian jet shows a clear asymmetric feature;that is,there are remarkable differences between the southward and northward displacement of the jet.The southward displacement of the jet corresponds to suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific and Maritime Continent and enhanced convection in the equatorial Pacific,which can be explained by the warmer sea surfaces found in the northern Indian Ocean and equatorial eastern Pacific.These tropical anomalies somewhat resemble those associated with the eastern East Asian jet variability.However,the northward displacement of the western East Asian jet does not correspond to significant convection and SST anomalies in the entire tropics;instead,the northward displacement of the jet corresponds well to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.Furthermore,the meridional displacement of the western jet has asymmetric impacts on rainfall and surface air temperatures in East Asia.When the western jet shifts northward,more precipitation is found over South China and Northeast China,and higher temperatures appear in northern China.By contrast,when the jet shifts southward,more precipitation appears over the East Asian rainy belt,including the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,and southern and central Japan and warmer temperatures are found South and Southeast Asia.

Impact of Revised Trigger and Closure of the Double-Plume Convective Parameterization on Precipitation Simulations over East Asia

A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.

Impact of Tropical Indian Ocean Temperature on the Ozone Layer in East Asia

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from British Hadley Center and ozone mass mixing ratio from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during 1980-2015, two indexes IOBI and IODI of the main modes characterizing SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean——Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were calculated firstly, and then the correlation of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean and ozone mass mixing ratio in the stratosphere over East Asia from 1980 to 2015 was analyzed. Besides, the impact of SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean on the distribution of ozone layer in East Asia was discussed. The results show that SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean had significant effects on stratospheric ozone distribution in East Asia, and it was consistent with the temporal changes of IOB and IOD. IOBI and IODI had a certain correlation with stratospheric ozone changes in East Asia, with a particularly significant correlation in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) and middle stratosphere (40 hPa) especially during spring and autumn.

Synoptic-scale reversal of dipole surface temperature anomalies over East Asia and Central Siberia in November 2021

2021年11月,东亚与中西伯利亚经历了相反的冷暖异常转换,表现为“中西伯利亚偏冷,东亚偏暖”与“中西伯利亚偏暖,东亚偏冷”的交替出现.该偶极型气温异常的天气尺度反转伴随着大尺度大气环流异常的反转.进一步分析表明,东亚与中西伯利亚的偶极型气温异常反转是1979-2021年期间11月欧亚气温日变化的主导模态之一(发生概率超过56%).

Differences between CMIP6 and CMIP5 Models in Simulating Climate over China and the East Asian Monsoon

We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period 1979–2005.All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models,current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases,a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient,a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability,and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia.Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon.The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects.Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.

The tropical-subtropical evergreen forest transition in East Asia:An exploration

The transition from tropical to subtropical(warm temperate)evergreen forests is more clearly apparent in East Asia,fromNepal to the western Pacific coast,than elsewhere in the tropics.We review the nature of this transition and hypothesize the physical,ultimately climatic,factors thatmay maintain it,with a special focus on how the increasing instability and warming of climates will affect these forests.A primary climatic mediator of the transition is proposed,thereby offering a testable hypothesis for the climateeforest transition relationship.What is known of this transition is summarized in context of the primary climatic mediators of elevational zonation of forest formations in equatorial Asia to the tree line,in the Himalaya at the India-Indo-Burma northern tropical margin,and as both elevational and latitudinal zonation in southern China.Consequent secondary edaphic and other physical changes are described for the Himalaya,and hypothesized for southern China.The forest ecotones are seen to be primarily defined by tree floristic change,on which account changes in structure and physiognomy are determined.The montane tropical-subtropical transition in the Himalaya is narrowand observed to correlate with an as yet ill-defined frost line.A distinct tropical-subtropical transition forest is recognized in the southwest Chinamountains.There is a total change in canopy species at the Himalayan ecotone,but subcanopy tropical species persist along an elevational decline of c.400 m.The latitudinal transition in South China is analogous,but here the tropical subcanopy component extends north over ten degrees latitude,albeit in decline.The tropical-subtropical transition is uniquely clear in East Asia because here alone a tropical wet summer-dry winter monsoon extends to 35
north latitude,encompassing the subtropical evergreen forest,whereas subtropical evergreen forests elsewhere exist under drier temperate summer climate regimes.

Ambient noise surface wave tomography of marginal seas in east Asia

We conducted ambient noise tomography in east Asia, including the Chinese coastal provinces, Korea Peninsular, Japan,Taiwan Island, and marginal seas in between. We retrieved Rayleigh Green's functions from inter-station correlations of 12 months of continuous waveform data at 573 broadband stations in the region. We obtained group and phase velocity dispersion curves and dispersion maps for periods from 10 to 70 s and inverted for 3D Vs model of the crust and uppermost mantle. Moho and lithosphere thickness were derived from the 3D model. We observed three prominent low velocity zones in the upper mantle, two in the accretionary wedges above the Pacific and Philippine subduction slabs and one beneath the Changbai Mountain region. The crust and lithosphere are generally thin in the region. The velocity anomalies, crustal thickness, and lithosphere thickness all show a similar trend in NNE-SSW direction. The lithosphere shows a striking " sausage"-type structure with alternating thickness. The crust thickness and lithosphere thickness both decrease progressively from NW to SE direction, which coincides with the distribution of episodic magmatism in SE China.We propose that the subduction of paleo-Pacific slab and its rollback were mainly responsible for the crustal and lithosphere extension and the mantle lithosphere removal in east Asia.

ASIAN-PACIFIC OSCILLATION IN AUTUMN AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MONSOON IN EAST ASIA

Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during transitions from the summer monsoon to the winter monsoon in East Asian subtropics, and investigates the interannual variations of the thermal contrast and their relationships with circulation systems over the East Asian subtropics. The findings are as follows. 1) In autumn, the interannual variations of the temperature deviation in the middle and upper troposphere show significant east-west out-of-phase teleconnection over Asia and the central and eastern Pacific, i.e. the Asian-Pacific Oscillation, or APO. 2) While not as significant as in summer with regard to coverage and intensity, the APO shows interannual variations in autumn that well depicts the change in the intensity of the subtropical monsoon. In the high(low) APO year, the current subtropical summer monsoon is strong(weak) and the winter monsoon is weak(strong) in East Asia as derived from the general circulation and wind field of the East Asian-Pacific region.

Analysis of Short-term Cloud Feedback in East Asia Using Cloud Radiative Kernels

Cloud radiative kernels were built by BCC_RAD(Beijing Climate Center radiative transfer model)radiative transfer code.Then,short-term cloud feedback and its mechanisms in East Asia(0.5°S−60.5°N,69.5°−150.5°E)were analyzed quantitatively using the kernels combined with MODIS satellite data from July 2002 to June 2018.According to the surface and monsoon types,four subregions in East Asia-the Tibetan Plateau,northwest,temperate monsoon(TM),and subtropical monsoon(SM)—were selected.The average longwave,shortwave,and net cloud feedbacks in East Asia are−0.68±1.20,1.34±1.08,and 0.66±0.40 W m^−2 K^−1(±2σ),respectively,among which the net feedback is dominated by the positive shortwave feedback.Positive feedback in SM is the strongest of all subregions,mainly due to the contributions of nimbostratus and stratus.In East Asia,short-term feedback in spring is primarily caused by marine stratus in SM,in summer is primarily driven by deep convective cloud in TM,in autumn is mainly caused by land nimbostratus in SM,and in winter is mainly driven by land stratus in SM.Cloud feedback in East Asia is chiefly driven by decreases in mid-level and low cloud fraction owing to the changes in relative humidity,and a decrease in low cloud optical thickness due to the changes in cloud water content.

Involucre fossils of Carpinus,a northern temperate element,from the Miocene of China and the evolution of its species diversity in East Asia

East Asia has long been recognized as a major center for temperate woody plants diversity.Although several theories have been proposed to explain how the diversity of these temperate elements accumulated in the region,the specific process remains unclear.Here we describe six species of Carpinus,a typical northern hemisphere temperate woody plant,from the early Miocene of the Maguan Basin,southwestern China,southern East Asia.This constitutes the southernmost,and the earliest occurrence that shows a high species diversity of the genus.Together with other Carpinus fossil records from East Asia,we show that the genus had achieved a high diversity in East Asia at least by the middle Miocene.Of the six species here described,three have become extinct,indicating that the genus has experienced apparent species loss during its evolutionary history in East Asia.In contrast,the remaining three species closely resemble extant species,raising the possibility that these species may have persisted in East Asia at least since the early Miocene.These findings indicate that the accumulation of species diversity of Carpinus in East Asia is a complex process involving extinction,persistence,and possible subsequent speciation.

Levels and behavior of environmental tritium in East Asia

For a more systematic understanding of the levels of environmental tritium and its behavior in East Asia,a database on environmental tritium was established based on the literature published in the past 30 years.Subsequently,the levels and behavior of the environmental tritium were further studied by statistical analyses.The results indicate that the distribution of environmental tritium is inhomogeneous and complex.In areas without nuclear facilities,the level of environmental tritium has decreased to its background level,even though a certain number of atmospheric nuclear tests were performed before 1980.In general,the level of atmospheric tritium was marginally higher than the levels in precipitation and surface water;the levels in shallow groundwater and seawater were considerably lower.Furthermore,the levels of tritium in the atmosphere,precipitation,and inland surface water were strongly correlated with latitude and distance from the coastline.In soil and living organisms,the level of tissue-free water tritium(TFWT)was comparable to the tritium levels in local rainfall,whereas the persistence of organically bound tritium(OBT)in the majority of organisms resulted in an OBT/TFWT ratio greater than one.Conversely,extremely high levels of environmental tritium were observed near certain nuclear power plants and the Fukushima accident sites.These results highlight the requirement to know the tritium baseline level and its behavior in the environment beforehand to better assess the impact of tritium discharge.Further investigations of environmental tritium in East Asia using more efficient and adequate monitoring methods are also required.

Piecemeal Delamination of Thickened Lithosphere Triggered Pulsed Magmatism and Mineralization during Late Mesozoic Intracontinental Orogeny in East Asia

The East Asia continent is characterized by a mosaic architecture with various composing blocks,such as the North and South China blocks,which had been collaged in Late Permian to Triassic in response to the break-up of Pangea.In the Late Mesozoic.

CLM3-simulated soil moisture in East Asia and its possible response to global warming during 1979 through 2003

Hydrological processes related to soil moisture play an important role in determining regional and global climate. In this study, using a state-of-art Community Land Model (CLM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we simulated soil moisture in East Asia and its possible response to global warming through a long off-line experiment under 0.5° (longitude) × 0.5° (latitude) resolution and real atmospheric forcing of the National Center for Environmental Protection/ Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis during 1979 through 2003. The 25-year simulation is examined and compared with limited observations. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) Soil moisture takes time in response to the atmospheric forcing. The equilibration time depends on the depth of the soil and is as much as 20 years in deep layers (>1.5 m); (2) In comparison with observations, the CLM reasonably reproduces the seasonal and inter-annual variability, spatial structure, and vertical pattern of soil moisture in East Asia; (3) The soil tends to be drier in the past 25 years in northeastern Asia-including northern China north of 30°N-while wetter in the southern China and the Tibetan Plateau, especially in summer. Our analysis shows that the regional drying is attributed to increase of the land-surface evaporation induced by global warming.

Crust and upper mantle structure of East Asia from ambient noise and earthquake surface wave tomography

The complex tectonic background of East Asia makes it an ideal region for investigating the evolution of the continental lithosphere,for which high-resolution lithospheric structural models are essential.In this study,we measured Rayleigh-wave phase-velocity dispersion curves at periods of 10-120 s and group velocity dispersion curves at periods of 10-140 s using event records from more than 1,000 seismic stations in and around China.By jointly inverting new and previously published dispersion data from ambient noise and earthquakes,we developed a high-resolution shear-wave velocity model down to a depth of~300 km beneath East Asia.Our model revealed heterogeneous lithospheric structures beneath East Asia,and allowed us to investigate the velocity structure of the entire lithosphere.We also derived crustal and lithospheric thickness models from the three-dimensional(3D)shear-wave model,revealing strong spatial heterogeneity and a general thinning trend of lithospheric thickness from west to east across the study region.Overall,our models reveal important lithospheric features beneath East Asia and provide a valuable baseline dataset for understanding continental-scale dynamics and evolution.

Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Strengthen the East Asia–Pacific Pattern during Summer

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to2018.The results showed that the TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere.Further analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP pattern.The present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers over the East Asia in Middle Summers from 2001 to 2016

Atmospheric Rivers(ARs) are narrow and elongated water vapor belts in troposphere with meridional transport across the mid-latitudes towards high-latitudes. Compared with ARs occurred over the northeastern Pacific, the western coast of North America and Europe, the ARs over the East Asia have received less attention. In this paper, the characteristics of ARs which affected China in the area 20?–60?N, 95?–165?E in the middle summer season from 2001 to 2016 were investigated by using European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data and Multi-functional Transport Satellites-1 R(MTSAT-1 R) infrared data. Totally, 134 ARs occurred during that period, and averagely 8.4 ARs occurred per year. Statistically, 101 ARs were in east-west orientation, and 33 ARs were in north-south orientation, which accounts for about 75% and 25%, respectively. Herein we report the occurrence number, duration time, intensity, length, width, ratio of length to width, and extension orientation of these ARs, which provide the basic information for those who have interest in ARs over the East Asia.