Objective: IMpower210(NCT02813785) explored the efficacy and safety of single-agent atezolizumab vs.docetaxel as second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) in East Asian patients.Methods: Key...Objective: IMpower210(NCT02813785) explored the efficacy and safety of single-agent atezolizumab vs.docetaxel as second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) in East Asian patients.Methods: Key eligibility criteria for this phase Ⅲ, open-label, randomized study included age ≥18 years;histologically documented advanced NSCLC per the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system(7th edition);Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1;and disease progression following platinum-based chemotherapy for advanced or metastatic NSCLC. Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive either atezolizumab(1,200 mg) or docetaxel(75 mg/m^(2)). The primary study endpoint was overall survival(OS) in the intention-to-treat(ITT) population with wild-type epidermal growth factor receptor expression(ITT EGFR-WT) and in the overall ITT population.Results: Median OS in the ITT EGFR-WT population(n=467) was 12.3 [95% confidence interval(95% CI),10.3-13.8] months in the atezolizumab arm(n=312) and 9.9(95% CI, 7.8-13.9) months in the docetaxel arm[n=155;stratified hazard ratio(HR), 0.82;95% CI, 0.66-1.03]. Median OS in the overall ITT population was 12.5(95% CI, 10.8-13.8) months with atezolizumab treatment and 11.1(95% CI, 8.4-14.2) months(n=377) with docetaxel treatment(n=188;stratified HR, 0.87;95% CI, 0.71-1.08). Grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events(TRAEs) occurred in 18.4% of patients in the atezolizumab arm and 50.0% of patients in the docetaxel arm.Conclusions: IMpower210 did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of OS in the ITT EGFR-WT or overall ITT populations. Atezolizumab was comparatively more tolerable than docetaxel, with a lower incidence of grade3/4 TRAEs.展开更多
Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades,leading to huge socioeconomic impacts.Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions,their ...Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades,leading to huge socioeconomic impacts.Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions,their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear.Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020,this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers.The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades,while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness.The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern,with more severe dryness in northwestern China,Mongolia,North China,South Korea,and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia.Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry(wet)surface in North(Southwestern)China is significantly associated with anomalously high(low)temperature,less(more)precipitation,and reduced(increased)soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring,regulated by an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)and thus reduced(increased)water vapor convergence.The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.展开更多
Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies.By using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurren...Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies.By using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe,even though they are geographically far away from each other.By further composite analysis,this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe,typically with a time lag of3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave events.An eastward propagating atmospheric wave train,known as the circumglobal teleconnection(CGT)pattern,bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote regions.Atmospheric blockings,amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe,not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low pressures.Subsequent downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation,thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East Asia.Nearly half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave events.This investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.展开更多
The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global...The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.展开更多
The East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia.Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall,the spread of projections is large and sim...The East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia.Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall,the spread of projections is large and simulations of present-day rainfall show significant climatological biases.Systematic evapotranspiration biases occur locally over East Asia,and globally over land,in simulations both with and without a coupled ocean.This study explores the relationship between evapotranspiration and EASM precipitation biases.First,idealized model simulations are presented in which the parameterization of land evaporation is modified,while sea surface temperature is fixed.The results suggest a feedback whereby excessive evapotranspiration over East Asia results in cooling of land,a weakened monsoon low,and a shift of rainfall from the Philippine Sea to China,further fueling evapotranspiration.Cross-model regressions against evapotranspiration over China indicate a similar pattern of behavior in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations.Possible causes of this pattern are investigated.The feedback is not explained by an overly intense global hydrological cycle or by differences in radiative processes.Analysis of land-only simulations indicates that evapotranspiration biases are present even when models are forced with prescribed rainfall.These are strengthened when coupled to the atmosphere,suggesting a role for land-model errors in driving atmospheric biases.Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are shown to have similar evapotranspiration biases to those in AMIP over China,but different precipitation biases,including a northward shift in the ITCZ over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.展开更多
The interannual meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the eastern portion of East Asia in summer has been well documented.This study,however,investigates the interannual meridional displa...The interannual meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the eastern portion of East Asia in summer has been well documented.This study,however,investigates the interannual meridional displacement of the westerly jet over the western portion of East Asia in summer,which is distinct from its eastern counterpart.The results show that the meridional displacement of the western East Asian jet shows a clear asymmetric feature;that is,there are remarkable differences between the southward and northward displacement of the jet.The southward displacement of the jet corresponds to suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific and Maritime Continent and enhanced convection in the equatorial Pacific,which can be explained by the warmer sea surfaces found in the northern Indian Ocean and equatorial eastern Pacific.These tropical anomalies somewhat resemble those associated with the eastern East Asian jet variability.However,the northward displacement of the western East Asian jet does not correspond to significant convection and SST anomalies in the entire tropics;instead,the northward displacement of the jet corresponds well to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.Furthermore,the meridional displacement of the western jet has asymmetric impacts on rainfall and surface air temperatures in East Asia.When the western jet shifts northward,more precipitation is found over South China and Northeast China,and higher temperatures appear in northern China.By contrast,when the jet shifts southward,more precipitation appears over the East Asian rainy belt,including the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,and southern and central Japan and warmer temperatures are found South and Southeast Asia.展开更多
Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation inde...Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.展开更多
A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering th...A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.展开更多
Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from British Hadley Center and ozone mass mixing ratio from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during 1980-2015, two indexes...Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from British Hadley Center and ozone mass mixing ratio from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during 1980-2015, two indexes IOBI and IODI of the main modes characterizing SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean——Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were calculated firstly, and then the correlation of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean and ozone mass mixing ratio in the stratosphere over East Asia from 1980 to 2015 was analyzed. Besides, the impact of SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean on the distribution of ozone layer in East Asia was discussed. The results show that SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean had significant effects on stratospheric ozone distribution in East Asia, and it was consistent with the temporal changes of IOB and IOD. IOBI and IODI had a certain correlation with stratospheric ozone changes in East Asia, with a particularly significant correlation in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) and middle stratosphere (40 hPa) especially during spring and autumn.展开更多
Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is...Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.展开更多
The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet (EAWJ) and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist i...The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet (EAWJ) and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist in the westerly jet intensity and location in different regions and seasons due to the ocean-land distribution and seasonal thermal contrast, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the EAWJ center is situated over the western Pacific Ocean and the intensity is reduced gradually from east to west over the East Asian region. In summer, the EAWJ center is located over the north of the Tibetan Plateau and the jet intensity is reduced evidently compared with that in winter. The EAWJ seasonal evolution is characterized by the obvious longitudinal inconsistency of the northward migration and in-phase southward retreat of the EAWJ axis. A good correspondence between the seasonal variations of EAWJ and the meridional differences of air temperature (MDT) in the mid-upper troposphere demonstrates that the MDT is the basic reason for the seasonal variation of EAWJ. Correlation analyses indicate that the Kuroshio Current region to the south of Japan and the Tibetan Plateau are the key areas for the variations of the EAWJ intensities in winter and in summer, respectively. The strong sensible and latent heating in the Kuroshio Current region is closely related to the intensification of EAWJ in winter. In summer, strong sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau corresponds to the EAWJ strengthening and southward shift, while the weak sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with the EAWJ weakening and northward migration.展开更多
The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2...The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2005 to early January 2006, exceptionally cold weather lasted for approximately one month due to two successive cold surges that took place on 2 December 2005 and 2 January 2006, respectively. This study reveals that both involve the upper-tropospheric circulation, which induces the amplification and expansion of the surface Siberian high toward East Asia, but arose from different causes: the former is caused by the upper-level blocking originated from the North Pacific and the latter is caused by the upper-level wave train across the Eurasian Continent. In particular, it is suggested that the lower-tropospheric anomalous wind caused by upper-level circulation anomalies and a steep meridional temperature gradient amplified by phase-locked annual cycle combined to induce very strong cold advection in East Asia, which resulted in exceptionally cold weather that lasted for several weeks. The present results emphasize that the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric circulation can be considered as important precursors to cold surge occurrences in East Asia.展开更多
The impact of the northward jump and westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core fi:om the westem Pacific Ocean to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on precipitation distribution of eastem China is studied. It is c...The impact of the northward jump and westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core fi:om the westem Pacific Ocean to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on precipitation distribution of eastem China is studied. It is concluded that on the one hand, the northward jump of the jet causes the precipitation belt to move northward from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and withdraw during the Mei-yu season; on the other hand, the westward movement of the jet core has no correspondence with withdrawal of the Mei-yu season. However, the earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet has an influence on the process of the rain belt moving northward than the northward jump of the jet: the rain belt moves northward from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to the Huaihe River and then to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River during years when the time of the westward movement of the jet core is later than that of the northward jump of the jet and from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River in other years. Further analysis shows that: (1) The northward jump of the jet and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core causes significant variation of the general atmospheric circulation in middle latitudes and water vapor transport from the western Pacific, but not from the Bay of Bengal. (2) Impact of the northward jump and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core on circulation are different, therefore, water vapor transport from the western Pacific and its impact on the rain belt are different. The earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet core than the northward jump of the jet causes the process of circulation and water vapor transport to be different which produces a different process of the rain belt moving northward.展开更多
The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause nega...The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.展开更多
We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and...We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period 1979–2005.All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models,current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases,a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient,a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability,and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia.Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon.The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects.Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.展开更多
Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressu...Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.展开更多
Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global o...Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.展开更多
Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50...Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E) was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing (GED) methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal (1981-2010) mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades (2006-35) over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2) scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K (30 yr)-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn (mainly), faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.展开更多
The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulat...The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, AIB, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation: three in the northern regions (Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China), one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.展开更多
基金funded by F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd sponsored the IMpower210 study。
文摘Objective: IMpower210(NCT02813785) explored the efficacy and safety of single-agent atezolizumab vs.docetaxel as second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) in East Asian patients.Methods: Key eligibility criteria for this phase Ⅲ, open-label, randomized study included age ≥18 years;histologically documented advanced NSCLC per the Union for International Cancer Control/American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system(7th edition);Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1;and disease progression following platinum-based chemotherapy for advanced or metastatic NSCLC. Patients were randomized 2:1 to receive either atezolizumab(1,200 mg) or docetaxel(75 mg/m^(2)). The primary study endpoint was overall survival(OS) in the intention-to-treat(ITT) population with wild-type epidermal growth factor receptor expression(ITT EGFR-WT) and in the overall ITT population.Results: Median OS in the ITT EGFR-WT population(n=467) was 12.3 [95% confidence interval(95% CI),10.3-13.8] months in the atezolizumab arm(n=312) and 9.9(95% CI, 7.8-13.9) months in the docetaxel arm[n=155;stratified hazard ratio(HR), 0.82;95% CI, 0.66-1.03]. Median OS in the overall ITT population was 12.5(95% CI, 10.8-13.8) months with atezolizumab treatment and 11.1(95% CI, 8.4-14.2) months(n=377) with docetaxel treatment(n=188;stratified HR, 0.87;95% CI, 0.71-1.08). Grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events(TRAEs) occurred in 18.4% of patients in the atezolizumab arm and 50.0% of patients in the docetaxel arm.Conclusions: IMpower210 did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of OS in the ITT EGFR-WT or overall ITT populations. Atezolizumab was comparatively more tolerable than docetaxel, with a lower incidence of grade3/4 TRAEs.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230603,42275020)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)+3 种基金Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025)Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,MNR(QNHX2310)Future Earth Early-Career Fellowship of the Future Earth Global Secretariat Hub China。
文摘Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades,leading to huge socioeconomic impacts.Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions,their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear.Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020,this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers.The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades,while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness.The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern,with more severe dryness in northwestern China,Mongolia,North China,South Korea,and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia.Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry(wet)surface in North(Southwestern)China is significantly associated with anomalously high(low)temperature,less(more)precipitation,and reduced(increased)soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring,regulated by an anomalous anticyclone(cyclone)and thus reduced(increased)water vapor convergence.The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific.The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42275020)+1 种基金Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (311021001)Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies (2020B1212060025)。
文摘Concurrent extreme weather events in geographically distant areas potentially cause high-end risks for societies.By using network analysis,the present study managed to identify significant nearly-simultaneous occurrences of heatwaves between the grid cells in East Asia and Eastern Europe,even though they are geographically far away from each other.By further composite analysis,this study revealed that hot events first occurred in Eastern Europe,typically with a time lag of3-4 days before the East Asian heatwave events.An eastward propagating atmospheric wave train,known as the circumglobal teleconnection(CGT)pattern,bridged the sequent occurrences of extreme events in these two remote regions.Atmospheric blockings,amplified by surface warming over Eastern Europe,not only enhanced local heat extremes but also excited a CGT-like pattern characterized by alternative anomalies of high and low pressures.Subsequent downstream anticyclones in the middle and upper troposphere reduced local cloud cover and increased downward solar radiation,thereby facilitating the formation of heatwaves over East Asia.Nearly half of East Asian heatwave events were preceded by Eastern European heatwave events in the 10-day time range before East Asian heatwave events.This investigation of heatwave teleconnection in the two distant regions exhibits strong potential to improve the prediction accuracy of East Asian heatwaves.
基金supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China(Grant No.41730964)the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(2018YFC1506000)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975091 and 42175047)National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB453203)UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.
文摘The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.
基金supported by the UK–China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund, through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China, as part of the Newton Fund
文摘The East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM)provides the majority of annual rainfall to countries in East Asia.Although state-of-the-art models broadly project increased EASM rainfall,the spread of projections is large and simulations of present-day rainfall show significant climatological biases.Systematic evapotranspiration biases occur locally over East Asia,and globally over land,in simulations both with and without a coupled ocean.This study explores the relationship between evapotranspiration and EASM precipitation biases.First,idealized model simulations are presented in which the parameterization of land evaporation is modified,while sea surface temperature is fixed.The results suggest a feedback whereby excessive evapotranspiration over East Asia results in cooling of land,a weakened monsoon low,and a shift of rainfall from the Philippine Sea to China,further fueling evapotranspiration.Cross-model regressions against evapotranspiration over China indicate a similar pattern of behavior in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations.Possible causes of this pattern are investigated.The feedback is not explained by an overly intense global hydrological cycle or by differences in radiative processes.Analysis of land-only simulations indicates that evapotranspiration biases are present even when models are forced with prescribed rainfall.These are strengthened when coupled to the atmosphere,suggesting a role for land-model errors in driving atmospheric biases.Coupled atmosphere-ocean models are shown to have similar evapotranspiration biases to those in AMIP over China,but different precipitation biases,including a northward shift in the ITCZ over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130504 and 42275031)。
文摘The interannual meridional displacement of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet over the eastern portion of East Asia in summer has been well documented.This study,however,investigates the interannual meridional displacement of the westerly jet over the western portion of East Asia in summer,which is distinct from its eastern counterpart.The results show that the meridional displacement of the western East Asian jet shows a clear asymmetric feature;that is,there are remarkable differences between the southward and northward displacement of the jet.The southward displacement of the jet corresponds to suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific and Maritime Continent and enhanced convection in the equatorial Pacific,which can be explained by the warmer sea surfaces found in the northern Indian Ocean and equatorial eastern Pacific.These tropical anomalies somewhat resemble those associated with the eastern East Asian jet variability.However,the northward displacement of the western East Asian jet does not correspond to significant convection and SST anomalies in the entire tropics;instead,the northward displacement of the jet corresponds well to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation.Furthermore,the meridional displacement of the western jet has asymmetric impacts on rainfall and surface air temperatures in East Asia.When the western jet shifts northward,more precipitation is found over South China and Northeast China,and higher temperatures appear in northern China.By contrast,when the jet shifts southward,more precipitation appears over the East Asian rainy belt,including the Yangtze River valley,South Korea,and southern and central Japan and warmer temperatures are found South and Southeast Asia.
基金the Basic Research Project of Zhejiang Normal University,China(ZC304022952)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funding(2018M642614)the Natural Science Foundation Youth Proj ect of S h andong Provi nce,C hina(ZR2020QF281)。
文摘Studying the significant impacts on vegetation of drought due to global warming is crucial in order to understand its dynamics and interrelationships with temperature,rainfall,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).These factors are linked to excesses drought frequency and severity on the regional scale,and their effect on vegetation remains an important topic for climate change study.East Asia is very sensitive and susceptible to climate change.In this study,we examined the effect of drought on the seasonal variations of vegetation in relation to climate variability and determined which growing seasons are most vulnerable to drought risk;and then explored the spatio-temporal evolution of the trend in drought changes in East Asia from 1982 to 2019.The data were studied using a series of several drought indexes,and the data were then classified using a heat map,box and whisker plot analysis,and principal component analysis.The various drought indexes from January to August improved rapidly,except for vegetation health index(VHI)and temperature condition index(TCI).While these indices were constant in September,they increased again in October,but in December,they showed a descending trend.The seasonal and monthly analysis of the drought indexes and the heat map confirmed that the East Asian region suffered from extreme droughts in 1984,1993,2007,and 2012among the study years.The distribution of the trend in drought changes indicated that more severe drought occurred in the northwestern region than in the southeastern area of East Asia.The drought tendency slope was used to describe the changes in drought events during 1982–2019 in the study region.The correlations among monthly precipitation anomaly percentage(NAP),NDVI,TCI,vegetation condition index(VCI),temperature vegetation drought index(TVDI),and VHI indicated considerably positive correlations,while considerably negative correlations were found among the three pairs of NDVI and VHI,TVDI and VHI,and NDVI and TCI.This ecological and climatic mechanism provides a good basis for the assessment of vegetation and drought-change variations within the East Asian region.This study is a step forward in monitoring the seasonal variation of vegetation and variations in drought dynamics within the East Asian region,which will serve and contribute to the better management of vegetation,disaster risk,and drought in the East Asian region.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China on the Monitoring,Early Warning,and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters(Grant Nos.2018YFC1507005 and 02017YFC1502202)。
文摘A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275072,41365007)(Key)Project for Applied Basic Research of Yunnan Province(2011FA031).
文摘Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) from British Hadley Center and ozone mass mixing ratio from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) during 1980-2015, two indexes IOBI and IODI of the main modes characterizing SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean——Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were calculated firstly, and then the correlation of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the tropical Indian Ocean and ozone mass mixing ratio in the stratosphere over East Asia from 1980 to 2015 was analyzed. Besides, the impact of SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean on the distribution of ozone layer in East Asia was discussed. The results show that SST changes in the tropical Indian Ocean had significant effects on stratospheric ozone distribution in East Asia, and it was consistent with the temporal changes of IOB and IOD. IOBI and IODI had a certain correlation with stratospheric ozone changes in East Asia, with a particularly significant correlation in the lower stratosphere (70 hPa) and middle stratosphere (40 hPa) especially during spring and autumn.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41991280 and 42025502]the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research[grant number 2020B0301030004]the State Scholarship Fund by China Scholarship Council[grant number 202109045003].
基金supported jointly by the National Key Basic Research Development Program(Grant No.G1999043403)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)(Grant No.KZCX3-SW-218)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China project for young scientists fund(No.40305012) the Western Project of the CAS (KZCX1-10-07).
文摘Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40333026)
文摘The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet (EAWJ) and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist in the westerly jet intensity and location in different regions and seasons due to the ocean-land distribution and seasonal thermal contrast, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the EAWJ center is situated over the western Pacific Ocean and the intensity is reduced gradually from east to west over the East Asian region. In summer, the EAWJ center is located over the north of the Tibetan Plateau and the jet intensity is reduced evidently compared with that in winter. The EAWJ seasonal evolution is characterized by the obvious longitudinal inconsistency of the northward migration and in-phase southward retreat of the EAWJ axis. A good correspondence between the seasonal variations of EAWJ and the meridional differences of air temperature (MDT) in the mid-upper troposphere demonstrates that the MDT is the basic reason for the seasonal variation of EAWJ. Correlation analyses indicate that the Kuroshio Current region to the south of Japan and the Tibetan Plateau are the key areas for the variations of the EAWJ intensities in winter and in summer, respectively. The strong sensible and latent heating in the Kuroshio Current region is closely related to the intensification of EAWJ in winter. In summer, strong sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau corresponds to the EAWJ strengthening and southward shift, while the weak sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with the EAWJ weakening and northward migration.
基金the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Devel-opment Program under Grant CATER 2006-4204the BK21 Project of the Ko-rean government.
文摘The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2005 to early January 2006, exceptionally cold weather lasted for approximately one month due to two successive cold surges that took place on 2 December 2005 and 2 January 2006, respectively. This study reveals that both involve the upper-tropospheric circulation, which induces the amplification and expansion of the surface Siberian high toward East Asia, but arose from different causes: the former is caused by the upper-level blocking originated from the North Pacific and the latter is caused by the upper-level wave train across the Eurasian Continent. In particular, it is suggested that the lower-tropospheric anomalous wind caused by upper-level circulation anomalies and a steep meridional temperature gradient amplified by phase-locked annual cycle combined to induce very strong cold advection in East Asia, which resulted in exceptionally cold weather that lasted for several weeks. The present results emphasize that the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric circulation can be considered as important precursors to cold surge occurrences in East Asia.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40675041)
文摘The impact of the northward jump and westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core fi:om the westem Pacific Ocean to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on precipitation distribution of eastem China is studied. It is concluded that on the one hand, the northward jump of the jet causes the precipitation belt to move northward from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and withdraw during the Mei-yu season; on the other hand, the westward movement of the jet core has no correspondence with withdrawal of the Mei-yu season. However, the earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet has an influence on the process of the rain belt moving northward than the northward jump of the jet: the rain belt moves northward from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to the Huaihe River and then to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River during years when the time of the westward movement of the jet core is later than that of the northward jump of the jet and from the middle-lower Yangtze River valley to an area between the Yellow River and Huaihe River in other years. Further analysis shows that: (1) The northward jump of the jet and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core causes significant variation of the general atmospheric circulation in middle latitudes and water vapor transport from the western Pacific, but not from the Bay of Bengal. (2) Impact of the northward jump and the westward movement of the East Asian westerly jet core on circulation are different, therefore, water vapor transport from the western Pacific and its impact on the rain belt are different. The earlier or later occurrence of the westward movement of the jet core than the northward jump of the jet causes the process of circulation and water vapor transport to be different which produces a different process of the rain belt moving northward.
基金supported by Na-tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2006CB403707)the public Meteorology Special Foundation of MOST (Grant No. GYHY200706036)the National Key Technology R & D Program (Grant No.2007BAC03A0)
文摘The study investigated the effects of global direct radiative forcing due to carbonaceous aerosol on the climate in East Asia, using the CAM3 developed by NCAR. The results showed that carbonaceous aerosols cause negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface under clear sky conditions, but positive forcing at the TOA and weak negative forcing at the surface under all sky conditions. Hence, clouds could change the sign of the direct radiative forcing at the TOA, and weaken the forcing at the surface. Carbonaceous aerosols have distinct effects on the summer climate in East Asia. In southern China and India, it caused the surface temperature to increase, but the total cloud cover and precipitation to decrease. However, the opposite effects are caused for most of northern China and Bangladesh. Given the changes in temperature, vertical velocity, and surface streamflow caused by carbonaceous aerosol in this simulation, carbonaceous aerosol could also induce summer precipitation to decrease in southern China but increase in northern China.
文摘We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively)in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period 1979–2005.All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models,current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases,a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient,a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability,and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia.Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon.The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects.Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.
基金supported by project 2006C-B400503Project 2007BAC29B02
文摘Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis (ERA-40) sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.
基金funded by the'Study of the Prediction of Regional Climate Changes over Japan due to Global Warming'project,the'Water Resource and Its Variability in Asia in the 21st Century'project
文摘Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21stcentury and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-memberensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model(MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios.It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while boththe frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a fewpercent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the restof the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases,suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. SouthChina is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitationintensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warmingand an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may berelated with an El Nino-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease insummer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitationcontrast more in the future.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955204)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)the Research open-fund of Jiangsu Meteorology Bureau (Grant Nos. Q201205, KM201107, and K201009)
文摘Based on near-term climate simulations for IPCC-AR5 (The Fifth Assessment Report), probabilistic multimodel ensemble prediction (PMME) of decadal variability of surface air temperature in East Asia (20°-50°N, 100°- 145°E) was conducted using the multivariate Gaussian ensemble kernel dressing (GED) methodology. The ensemble system exhibited high performance in hindcasting the deeadal (1981-2010) mean and trend of temperature anomalies with respect to 1961-90, with a RPS of 0.94 and 0.88 respectively. The interpretation of PMME for future decades (2006-35) over East Asia was made on the basis of the bivariate probability density of the mean and trend. The results showed that, under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 W m-2) scenario, the annual mean temperature increases on average by about 1.1-1.2 K and the temperature trend reaches 0.6-0.7 K (30 yr)-1. The pattern for both quantities was found to be that the temperature increase will be less intense in the south. While the temperature increase in terms of the 30-yr mean was found to be virtually certain, the results for the 30-yr trend showed an almost 25% chance of a negative value. This indicated that, using a multimodel ensemble system, even if a longer-term warming exists for 2006-35 over East Asia, the trend for temperature may produce a negative value. Temperature was found to be more affected by seasonal variability, with the increase in temperature over East Asia more intense in autumn (mainly), faster in summer to the west of 115°E, and faster still in autumn to the east of 115°E.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program(2009CB421407,2006CB403707,and 2007BAC03A01)the R & D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(meteorol-ogy)(GYHY200806010)Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant NOKZCX2-YW-Q1-02)
文摘The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, AIB, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation: three in the northern regions (Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China), one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.