THE INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF EAST ASIA MONSOON AND ITS EFFECT ON THE RAINFALL OVER CHINA

The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951～1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.

Seasonal Prediction Skill and Biases in GloSea5 Relating to the East Asia Winter Monsoon

The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.

A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.

ASIAN-PACIFIC OSCILLATION IN AUTUMN AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MONSOON IN EAST ASIA

Based on the 1961-2010 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, this work uses empirical orthogonal function(EOF) and composite analysis to study the distributions of zonal land-sea thermal contrast between Asia and the Pacific during transitions from the summer monsoon to the winter monsoon in East Asian subtropics, and investigates the interannual variations of the thermal contrast and their relationships with circulation systems over the East Asian subtropics. The findings are as follows. 1) In autumn, the interannual variations of the temperature deviation in the middle and upper troposphere show significant east-west out-of-phase teleconnection over Asia and the central and eastern Pacific, i.e. the Asian-Pacific Oscillation, or APO. 2) While not as significant as in summer with regard to coverage and intensity, the APO shows interannual variations in autumn that well depicts the change in the intensity of the subtropical monsoon. In the high(low) APO year, the current subtropical summer monsoon is strong(weak) and the winter monsoon is weak(strong) in East Asia as derived from the general circulation and wind field of the East Asian-Pacific region.

Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3

The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, the authors evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over northern East China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid-and late-21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean.

EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

在这份报纸，在华东的东亚夏天季风发作日期线被类似于传统的定义计算，与 ECMWF 重新分析 850 hPa 日报风并且观察，重新分析并且联合每日的降雨在期间 1980 1993。为了做发作日期，尽可能近排队到以前的工作，最早的发作日期限制不得不被申请有不同纬度的区域和每天吝啬的数据集不得不以前到空格被变光滑计算，因此，他们的空间决定被归结为大约 3 祣汣湯獥琠慨?耶喩鼡充???琠???眠瑩楨?桴?牡慥漠?畇湡摧湯?

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPRING SOIL MOISTURE OVER CHINA AND EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON

The correlation analysis has been used to study the relationship between spring soil moisture over China and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). It is shown that EASM has a strong positive correlation with spring soil moisture over southwest China and the Great Bend region of the Yellow River. A standard soil moisture index (SMI) has been defined using the observed soil moisture of the two regions. The results show that SMI has a strong correlation with EASM. The years of strong (weak) SMI are associated with stronger (weaker) summer monsoon circulation. In the years of strong SMI, the west Pacific subtropical high is much northward in position and weaker in intensity;the westerlies zone is also more to the north. All of these make EASM circulation move northward and cause the rainfall belt to relocate to North China and Northeast China. SMI can reflect the variation of the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China. In the years of strong SMI, the rainfall belt is mainly located over the northern part of China. However, during the weak years, the summer rainfall belt is largely located over the mid-and lower-reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the SMI has obvious oscillations of quasi 4-6 years and quasi 2 years. Moreover, negative SMI predicts EASM better than positive SMI.

The strong winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino

The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.

THE EARLY SUMMER FLOOD PERIODS OF SOUTHERN CHINA AND THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION OF EAST ASIA

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Role of Turbulent Heat Fluxes over Land in the Monsoon over East Asia

Atmospheric heat and moisture over land are fundamental drivers of monsoon circulations. However, these drivers are less frequently considered in explaining the development and overall intensity of monsoons than heat and moisture over the ocean. In this study, the roles of turbulent heat fluxes over land in the monsoon system over East Asia are examined using Climatic Research Unit observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis, and they are further explored using simulated sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes from an ecosystem model (Predicting Ecosystem Goods and Services Using Scenarios or PEGASUS). Changes in the H fluxes over the land during the pre-monsoon season (March-May: MAM) affect the differential heating between land and ocean, which in turn controls monsoon development. In July, an intensified contrast of the mean sea level pressure between land and ocean is observed during the years of stronger land-sea H contrast in MAM, which results in enhanced onshore flows and more rainfall over southern East Asia. After monsoon onset, the contrast of H is influenced by monsoon rainfall through the cooling effect of precipitation on surface air temperature. During the monsoon season (June-September: JJAS), LE fluxes are more important than H fluxes, since LE fluxes over land and ocean affect overall monsoon intensity through changes in the land-sea contrast of turbulent heat fluxes. Significantly increased monsoon rainfall over western East Asia is observed during the years of larger LE over the land in JJAS. In ecosystem modeling, we find that the monsoon can be weakened as potential (natural) vegetation is converted to bare ground or irrigated cropland. Simulated H fluxes in MAM and LE fluxes in JJAS over the land significantly decrease in irrigated crop and bare ground scenarios, respectively, which play crucial roles in controlling monsoon development and overall intensity.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Cold Surge Occurrences in East Asia:A Case Study During 2005/06 Winter

The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2005 to early January 2006, exceptionally cold weather lasted for approximately one month due to two successive cold surges that took place on 2 December 2005 and 2 January 2006, respectively. This study reveals that both involve the upper-tropospheric circulation, which induces the amplification and expansion of the surface Siberian high toward East Asia, but arose from different causes： the former is caused by the upper-level blocking originated from the North Pacific and the latter is caused by the upper-level wave train across the Eurasian Continent. In particular, it is suggested that the lower-tropospheric anomalous wind caused by upper-level circulation anomalies and a steep meridional temperature gradient amplified by phase-locked annual cycle combined to induce very strong cold advection in East Asia, which resulted in exceptionally cold weather that lasted for several weeks. The present results emphasize that the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric circulation can be considered as important precursors to cold surge occurrences in East Asia.

The glacial extent and glacial advance/retreat asynchroncity in East Asia during Last Glaciation

New dates for last glacial cycle in Tibetan bordering mountains and in East Asia show the glacial extent during the early/middle （MIS3-4） stage is larger than that of the late stage （MIS2） in last glacial cycle. It is asynchronous with the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets maximum and changes in oceanic circulation that predominately control global climate. In research areas, three seasonal precipitation patterns control the accumulation and ablation of glaciers. The modes of the westerlies and the East Asian mountains/islands in and along the Pacific Ocean are favorable to glacier advance with mainly winter precipitation accumulation. There was a global temperature-decreasing phase in the middle stage （MIS3b, 54-44 ka BP）, when the glacier extent was larger than that in Last Glaciation Maximum due to the low temperature combined with high moisture. It is revealed that the Quaternary glaciers not only evolved with localization, but also maybe with globalization. The latest studies show a fact that the developmental characteristics of glaciers in high mountains or islands along the western Pacific Ocean are not in accord with those inland areas. Therefore, it can be concluded that glacier development exhibits regional differences. The study validates the reasonableness of the asynchronous advance theory, and ascertains that both the synchronous and asynchronous advance/retreat of glaciers existed from 30 ka BP to 10 ka BP. It is not suitable to emphasize the synchronicity between global ice-volume and glacier change.

Environmental record from the mud area on the inner continental shelf of the East China Sea since the mid-Holocene

Paleoclimate record was revealed in Core MZ01 covering the mid-Holocene in age,located in the mud area of the inner continental shelf of the East China Sea. The ancient environment featured low-energy shallow sea shelf deposition formed mainly by coastal currents. The results show that temporal variation in geochemistry corresponds with the climate changes inferred from historical record. Relatively low MgO/Al 2 O 3,CaO/K 2 O and high Al 2 O 3 /Na 2 O,K 2 O/Na 2 O,MnO/CaO values reflected a warm and humid climate in general,and vice versa. Therefore,these chemical indices could be applied to identify the variation of palaeoclimate in eastern China. The authors reconstructed the history of mid-Holocene climatic variation of the inner continental shelf of the East China Sea. From 8 300 a BP to 4 200 a BP,the climate was moderately warm and humid. From 4 200 a BP to 2 000 a BP,the climate turned cool and dry,and the regional climate frequently fluctuated in alternation of cool-dry periods（3 700 a BP,2 850 a BP and 2 400 a BP） and warm-wet periods（3 250 a BP and 2 650 a BP） . After 2 000 a BP,the climate of the study area gradually turned warm again,while the Little Ice Age,a cold event centered at around 250 a BP was indicated by those geochemical indices as mentioned above.

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002.The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer（June-August） precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive（negative）,the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier（later）,with a probability of 79%（80%）.Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon in Recent Decades

The analysis of 43 years of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and station observations reveals the connections between tropospheric temperature variations and the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The Indian summer monsoon variation is strongly linked to tropospheric temperature over East Asia, showing significant positive correlations of mean tropospheric temperature with all-Indian summer rainfall and the monsoon circulation

FIRST TRANSITION OF THE CIRCULATIONS IN ASIA AROUND MID－MAY FROM 7－YEAR MEAN ECMWF DATA

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2022/2023年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响

2022/2023年冬季全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0.2℃,我国大部地区气温偏高;全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少24.6%,空间上呈现北多南少的分布形势。东亚冬季风标准化指数为0.25,较常年同期略偏强;西伯利亚高压标准化强度指数为0.47,较常年同期略偏强;冬季北极涛动指数为-0.6,“前负后正”的阶段性特征显著;西太平洋副热带高压强度指数为-45.6 gpm,较常年同期偏弱;冬季欧亚大陆中高纬地区500 hPa为西高东低的环流形势,我国除华北、东北高度场偏低外,其余地区高度场偏高。冬季大气环流具有显著的季节内变化特征,12月为异常经向型环流,2月转为纬向型环流;对应冬季风也表现为前强后弱的变化趋势。北大西洋海温三极子(NAT)与乌拉尔山500 hPa高度场相关结果显示,8月、9月NAT与12月乌拉尔山地区高度场呈显著负相关,前期NAT异常负位相(正位相)有利于前冬东亚经向环流加强(减弱)。

EFFECTS OF VARIATION OF WINTER SEA-ICE AREA IN KARA AND BARENTS SEAS ON EAST ASIA WINTER MONSOON

By analyzing the observation data and performing the numerical simulation tests,it is shown that the Kara and the Barents Sea area is a key region to influence climate variation over the Northern Hemisphere.The variation of winter sea-ice area in the key region is closely associated with that of the EU teleconnection pattern at 500 hPa and East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM) intensity.When a heavy sea-ice prevails in the key region,the EU teleconnection pattern at 500 hPa is excited easily(there are positive 500 hPa height anomalies over around Japan and West Europe),and winter Siberia high is weakened,meanwhile,sea level pressure(SLP)has positive anomalies over the Northern Pacific.Therefore,EAWM will be weakened,winter temperature over East Asia is above normal and the frequency of cold-air activity in February in China will be decreased.When the light sea-ice occurs in the key region,the results will be opposite.