The East Asia regional meeting of International Program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI

Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, the East Asia regional meeting of the international program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI Nov 5—8 1996. About 76 delegates from home and abroad attended the meeting and more than 80 papers were presented or posted. The objective of the meeting was to review the status of rice biotechnology since 1995 and to promote the international collaborative activities. The topic involved anther culture, gene isolation and characterization, transfer and expression of foreign genes, etc.

SIMULATION OF PRESENT CLIMATE OVER EAST ASIA BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

A 15-year simulation of climate over East Asia is conducted with the latest version of a regional climate model RegCM3 nested in one-way mode to the ERA40 Re-analysis data. The performance of the model in simulating present climate over East Asia and China is investigated. Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The simulation of the main distribution patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and their seasonal cycle/evolution, are basically agree with that of the observation. Meanwhile a general cold bias is found in the simulation. As for the precipitation, the model tends to overestimate the precipitation in northern China while underestimate it in southern China, particularly in winter. In general, the model has better performance in simulating temperature than precipitation.

A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.

Regional Variability of Climate Change Hot-Spots in East Asia

The regional climate change index （RCCI） is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, AIB, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation： three in the northern regions （Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China）, one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas （GHG） concentrations. Our analysis indicates that subregional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.

Regional Endeavours Rrequired to Deal With Water Vulnerability in East and Southeast Asia

Booming economic development during the past decades has made the East and Southeast Asian region one of the most dynamic economies in the world and brought about rapid urbanization. It is expected that Asia will account for 12 of the world’s 25 cities with population exceeding 10 million by 2000. Tokyo will have more than 27 million people and Shanghai and Jakarta will each have more than 20 million people. Demand for water supply, as a result, will drastically increase. Data show that most of the East and Southeast Asian countries are faced with serious water shortage and contamination, in particular in the urbanized areas. The vulnerability of water supply constituents one of the greatest threats to the sustainable socio economic development of the region. Great efforts have been made to conserve both surface and subsurface water resources, to protect water from contamination and to use water in an efficient way. In addition to the establishment of administrative agencies under the governments in individual countries, a number of regional and country wide projects have been launched for a solution to ease the water vulnerability. The Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programmes in East and Southeast Asia (CCOP), an intergovernmental organization of the region, has devoted itself to coordinating regional endeavours to solve applied geoscientific problems through technology transfer, human resources development and regional data compilation. The regional map series and related databases produced by CCOP have provided useful information on regional geological background, which is also essential for the solution of water problems. However, it is obvious that regional efforts are not enough to meet the challenges we are faced with. In addition to raising public awareness and governmental concerns, advanced technologies, in particular those used in the petroleum industry to deal with oil and gas, a sort of fluid resources similar to water, must be adopted to the water supply industry. Since 1996, CCOP has, in cooperation with the developed countries, been working on a project called Petrowater. The Project aims at using the technology and infrastructures related to the oil industry to the water supply industry.

ICRC's Presence in East Asia——An Interview with Mr.Thierry Meyrat—Director of Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC

Q：Our readers are certainly fa- miliar with the ＂Red Cross＂ emblem, but maybe not so familiar with the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the International Committee of the Red Cross （ICRC）. Could you please introduce the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC？ Besides routine activities, could you please let us know what has been done by the delegation？ Could you please say something about your Chinese partner？

日本社会保障面临的挑战——基于人口减少社会的视角

日本已成功建立了全面的社会保障体系,实现了全民医疗和全民年金等目标。该制度的演变跨越了漫长的历史,适应了每个时代的挑战。第二次世界大战结束后,日本采取政策措施为生活贫困者、儿童和残疾人建立了相应的社会救助和社会福利制度。从20世纪50年代末到70年代初,日本完善了全民医疗和全民年金等社会保障制度。自20世纪90年代起,日本开始应对出生率下降和人口老龄化问题,并对社会保障制度进行改革,以确保其可持续性。至此,日本建成了包括医疗、年金、长期护理、育儿支持和公共援助在内的全面社会保障体系以保障民生。然而,在未来老龄化社会的背景下,出生率下降、人口减少以及地区差异的存在,都给政策带来了挑战,包括财政的可持续性、基于社区的医疗和社会服务供给的发展以及应对相对贫困等政策。当前人口减少不仅在日本,在中国和韩国也已成为普遍现象。对中日韩的研究人员来说,探讨人口减少背景下的社会保障等政策选择具有重要意义。

RegCM4.6两种积云参数化方案在东亚模拟结果的评估

新一代区域气候模式RegCM4.6引进了Mix积云参数化方案,可以将之前版本中的Emanuel和Grell方案结合在一起,以弥补单个参数化方案的不足。利用2016年MODIS(Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer)数据对RegCM4.6中Mix和Emanuel积云参数化方案模拟的东亚云量(Cloud fraction,CF)、冰水柱含量(Ice water path,IWP)和液水柱含量(Liquid water path,LWP)进行初步评估,计算了相关系数(r)、平均绝对误差(Mean absolute error,MAE)、平均偏差(Mean bias error,MBE)和均方根误差(Root mean square error,RMSE),以便为相关研究选取积云参数化方案提供参考依据。结果表明:(1)模拟的CF的MBE大致以胡焕庸线为界,西北部为轻微高估,东南部通常为低估。2种方案在夏季的模拟效果最好,冬季最差。Mix方案的MAE、MBE和RMSE的绝对值在四季普遍小于Emanuel方案。(2)模式明显低估了东亚的IWP,除夏季外,2种方案模拟的IWP与MODIS的都呈显著负相关,表明模式难以准确模拟出云中冰晶相关的物理过程。(3)2种方案模拟的LWP在青藏高原和东部海域均为低估,在中国南部、中部和北部为高估,但Mix方案的偏差更接近于0。冬季,2种方案的评估参数相近,其他季节Mix方案的MAE、MBE和RMSE的绝对值均小于Emanuel方案,其中MAE相差21~39 g·m-2。因此,Mix方案更适用于在东亚进行云水资源方面的模拟研究。

Preliminary results of a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia

We have established a regional air-sea coupled model over East Asia and conducted a 20-year integration to evaluate its performance in reproducing the present climate.The coupled model consists of RegCM3 and HYCOM controlled by the OASIS3 coupler with resuolution of 60 km for the atmosphere and 33 km for the ocean,respectively.Unlike some other regional air-sea coupled models,a one-way nesting method is employed in the oceanic component and a heat flux adjustment for solar radiation is used to remove an about 2°C cold bias in SST.The primary analysis for this 20-year integration shows that the coupled model successfully reproduces the main features of the circulations over East Asia,both in the atmosphere and the ocean,including climatology,seasonal and interannual variations.Improvements are seen in the coupled model compared to the uncoupled one,especially in the simulation of precipitation,the most important element of the East Asian monsoon,although there are still obvious discrepancies that come mainly from the model components themselves.Further analyses show that the rainfall simulation benefits from the enhancements of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High in summer,which leads to the improvement of the moisture flux simula-tion at the middle-lower atmospheric circulation.The results indicate that the regional air-sea coupled model is more suitable for the East Asia monsoon simulation.

SR型与EAP型遥相关“结合模态”对2020年江淮入梅初期强降水的影响

利用ERA5逐日再分析资料和中国气象局提供的逐日站点降水资料,分析了丝绸之路型(Silk-Road,SR)与东亚—太平洋型(East Asia–Pacific,EAP)遥相关的“结合模态”对2020年江淮梅雨入梅的影响,结果表明“结合模态”可以触发江淮流域的持续性降水。2020年6月初,负SR型(Silk-Road)和正EAP型(East Asia–Pacific)同时出现,并且位相差达到6月份最大值,二者协同作用下导致2020年入梅时间异常偏早。主要表现为:(1)负SR型引起西风急流加速,促使急流入口区南侧的江淮流域上空出现强的高层辐散。(2)负SR型有利于南亚高压东移,正EAP型有利于西太平洋副热带高压西移,二者相向而行。负SR型和正EAP型于6月9日位相差达最大,此时南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压重叠于120°E左右,有利于江淮流域持续性降水。(3)低层东亚中、低纬度有一对与正EAP型相关的异常“气旋—反气旋”环流,使低空(20°~35°N,100°~125°E)盛行强西南气流,中纬度的偏北气流有利于干冷空气向南输送,与西南暖湿气流汇合于江淮流域上空,带来强烈的水汽辐合,也使得大气的局地上升运动更为强烈。

东亚文化版块视阈下中国内地与台湾地区书装回顾(1949—2019)

1949年以来,中国内地与台湾地区在装帧领域既有共性,也存在差异。进入20世纪后期,海峡两岸在装帧设计上展开密切交流,在东亚文化版块以及世界设计舞台上大放光彩。本文即对1949—2019年中国内地与台湾地区的装帧实践进行整体的回顾,反映海峡两岸在东亚文化版块中的交流与向外的传播,揭示两岸书籍设计师的共同使命。

RegCM3对东亚环流和中国气候模拟能力的检验

使用RegCM3区域气候模式,嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15年（1987～2001年）时间长度的数值积分试验,分析了模式对东亚平均环流及中国地区气温和降水的模拟。结果表明,模式对东亚平均环流的特征和中国地区降水、地面气温的年、季地理分布和季节变化特征均具有一定的模拟能力,对气温和降水年际变率的模拟也较好。此外模式模拟在测站稀少地区,可以提供局地如降水分布更可靠的信息。模式对气温的模拟存在1-3℃的系统性冷偏差;对中国地区降水地理分布的模拟也存在一定偏差,如对年平均降水的模拟中,降水最大值位置与观测有一定差距,特别是对冬季降水中心的模拟存在较大偏差。模式模拟的夏季降水,在中国北方地区总体偏大100-200 mm,南方总体偏小100-200 mm。模式对地面气温的模拟效果好于降水。

东亚地区陆地生态系统净第一性生产力时空格局

利用植被分类数据、NDVI数据、气象数据以及观测数据,基于CASA生态系统模型,估算了东亚地区（10～70°N,70～170°E）陆地生态系统植被净第一性生产力。结果表明：1982～1999年研究区总NPP呈现波动增加趋势,平均每年增加0.08833PgC。18a间NPP平均值为14.24 PgC,约占全球总NPP的22.6%～23.9%。研究区NPP年变化呈单峰曲线,最大值出现在7月份,达2.98PgC,全年中NPP积累主要发生在4～10月份,该时段内NPP总量占全年总量的86.81%。春、夏、秋、冬四季NPP平均总量分别为：2.31、8.16、2.79、1.10 PgC,分别占全年NPP平均总量的16.20%、57.27%、19.58%、7.73%。将NPP年平均值分成3个范围：低值区（7.82～300gC·m^-2）、中值区（301～700 gC·m^-2）、高值区（〉700gC·m^-2）,分别研究了其空间分布特征。

利用NOAA卫星HIRS探测器监测东亚地区辐射收支的研究

地球－大气系统的辐射收支是描述地球和宇宙空间能量交换的重要参量，也只有从卫星平台才能直接观测大气顶的地球－大气系统的辐射收支。目前，长期的地－气系统射出长波辐射序列资料是从美国ＮＯＡＡ极轨业务气象卫星的甚高分辨率扫描辐射计测量中计算的，精度不能满足气候监测的要求。本文根据美国ＮＯＡＡ卫星高分辨率红外大气探测器（ＨｉｇｈＲｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎＩｎｆｒａｒｅｄＳｏｕｎｄｅｒ，缩写为ＨＩＲＳ）测量资料，研究了从中推算地球大气系统辐射收支的方法，并对计算出的１９９１年１月份东亚地区的地－气系统的辐射收支各参量、白天和夜间射出长波辐射差别分别进行了对比分析。结果表明，此方法计算的辐射收支分量，能揭示云和地球－大气系统的辐射分布特征及其分布细节，是进行区域气候研究的有效资料。

中国发展战略与中国-东盟关系再认识

过去几年中国与东盟国家围绕南海问题产生的争议,在中国和东盟方面都引发了对中国—东盟关系的反思,一些人甚至提出了中国分化东盟的观点。从中国发展战略的内源性出发,本文认为东盟在中国发展战略中具有重要地位,中国重视东盟在推动地区经济发展及区域合作中发挥的积极作用。因此,中国分化东盟的观点是站不住脚的。然而必须承认,中国—东盟合作目前确实面临互信约束,部分东盟成员对中国的"一带一路"倡议仍在犹豫观望。从双边关系的发展来看,中国与东盟合作前景广阔,只是在这个过程中双方要共同努力消除互信赤字,这样才能真正在利益共享中逐步走向命运共同体。

全球变化科学领域的若干研究进展

介绍了中国科学院大气物理研究所东亚中心在全球变化科学研究方面的一些进展。主要包括:(1)参与了国际和国内全球变化科学的开拓工作;(2)提出了区域水平上的全球变化研究新方向;(3)气候突变和全球增暖的区域响应研究;(4)东亚季风区植被—大气相互作用研究;(5)区域环境系统模式的发展和亚洲区域模式的国际比较研究活动;(6)提出了对全球变化的人类有序适应的概念、试验观测、理论和方法;(7)面向国家需求的全球变化问题—北方干旱化研究;(8)陆地生态系统碳循环研究等。

确定东亚─西北太平洋地区夏季副热带季风建立和活动范围的一种方法

文中利用1948—2002年NCEP/NCAR全球再分析资料,1958—2002年ECWMF再分析资料,中国国家气候中心的618个测站1961─2005年的逐日降水量资料,采用作者确定的东亚夏季风(EASM)建立标准,探讨东亚夏季风在南海爆发以后继续向北和向东推进活动范围、建立、持续和撤退的时空分布特征,结果表明:(1)给出东亚—西北太平洋地区的东亚夏季副热带季风(EASSM)的定义,计算其建立时间(候)和空间分布,发现EASSM除继续向北推进的方向外,在20°─25°N还有明显向东的分支,以及向西稍偏北的分支,107.5°E以西的季风建立等时线梯度十分密集,而以东的等时线梯度很小,季风建立的等时线的总体以110°─115°E为轴心、明显向中国华北和东北地区凸起的近于折线的分布,表明EASSM先在中国大陆建立,而同纬度的中国近海和西北太平洋地区的夏季副热带季风后建立;(2)撤退的等时线则近于与建立的等时线相反分布,沿120°E的方向凸向南,表明中国东北地区和近海地区先撤退;(3)给出东亚─西北太平洋地区EASSM建立的概率等值线的空间分布,我们尝试定义了<35%概率等值线的地区为其影响的边缘地带,北边界始于黑龙江省北部48°N附近向东南经由黑龙江省南部和俄罗斯滨海省,穿过日本海止于日本北海道南部,其西边界由东北向西南沿中蒙边境止于青藏高原。20世纪90年代北部边缘地带与多年平均比偏南3─5纬度,而西部边缘变动较小,只向东偏了1个经度。

东亚地区经济内部化及产业分工体系研究

强化专业化分工、提高内部经济依存度是东亚经济体提升国际竞争力和经济增长稳定性的重要基础。通过分析东亚地区生产和消费过程的内部化程度以及产业分工模式可以得出结论(1)在东亚地区,具有国际竞争力的产品大都在区域内有明显的垂直分工;(2)东亚地区的内部最终消费比率较低,即最终消费品的内部市场依存度仍远未达到能有效降低外部冲击的水平。因此,加速一体化的推进对于东亚经济具有重要的意义。

东亚区域大气再分析技术研究及资料集建设

从资料搜集、同化系统、数值模式、检验评估四个方面介绍了东亚区域大气再分析技术研究及资料建设取得的进展。就观测资料而言,搜集了常规地面和探空、飞机观测、GPS、雷达、风廓线、卫星导风、野外试验等观测资料。其中未参加国际交换的地面、探空资料、雷达等观测资料是本再分析资料构建的特色之一。针对Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI)同化系统,开展了该系统的本地化移植,并改进了GSI雷达径向风同化算子。对于Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF-ARW)模式,采用多组物理过程参数化方案组合,开展了批量个例和长时间模拟试验,并基于试验结果优化了模式的配置。检验评估系统采用NCAR模式评估系统MET。目前,再分析系统搭建及优化已完成,试验结果表明再分析系统初步具有在全球再分析的基础上提高区域再分析资料性能的能力,可将本再分析系统用于今后再分析数据的研制。

东亚区域货币合作与我国的参与对策

由美国著名经济学家蒙代尔提出的最优货币区理论为区域货币一体化奠定了理论基础,而欧盟的实践使这一理论变成了现实。东亚金融危机的爆发,加快了东亚区域货币合作的进程。而作为已经加入WTO同时又是东亚最大发展中国家的中国,应该积极参与东亚区域货币合作,并针对这一趋势做出适当的对策选择。