Effects of spectral nudging on the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon using WRF model

The performance of spectral nudging in an investigation of the 2010 East Asia summer monsoon was assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, forced by 1-degree NCEP Global Final Analysis (FNL). Two pairs of experiments were made, spectral nudging (SP) and non-spectral nudging (NOSP), with five members in each group. The members were distinguished by different initial times, and the analysis was based on the ensemble mean of the two simulation pairs. The SP was able to constrain error growth in large-scale circulation in upper-level, during simulation, and generate realistic regional scale patterns. The main focus was the model ability to simulate precipitation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product was used for precipitation verification. Mean precipitation magnitude was generally overestimated by WRF. Nevertheless, SP simulations suppressed overestimation relative to the NOSP experiments. Compared to TRMM, SP also improved model simulation of precipitation in spatial and temporal distributions, with the ability to reproduce movement of rainbands. However, extreme precipitation events were suppressed in the SP simulations.

EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

在这份报纸，在华东的东亚夏天季风发作日期线被类似于传统的定义计算，与 ECMWF 重新分析 850 hPa 日报风并且观察，重新分析并且联合每日的降雨在期间 1980 1993。为了做发作日期，尽可能近排队到以前的工作，最早的发作日期限制不得不被申请有不同纬度的区域和每天吝啬的数据集不得不以前到空格被变光滑计算，因此，他们的空间决定被归结为大约 3 祣汣湯獥琠慨?耶喩鼡充???琠???眠瑩楨?桴?牡慥漠?畇湡摧湯?

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPRING SOIL MOISTURE OVER CHINA AND EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON

The correlation analysis has been used to study the relationship between spring soil moisture over China and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). It is shown that EASM has a strong positive correlation with spring soil moisture over southwest China and the Great Bend region of the Yellow River. A standard soil moisture index (SMI) has been defined using the observed soil moisture of the two regions. The results show that SMI has a strong correlation with EASM. The years of strong (weak) SMI are associated with stronger (weaker) summer monsoon circulation. In the years of strong SMI, the west Pacific subtropical high is much northward in position and weaker in intensity;the westerlies zone is also more to the north. All of these make EASM circulation move northward and cause the rainfall belt to relocate to North China and Northeast China. SMI can reflect the variation of the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China. In the years of strong SMI, the rainfall belt is mainly located over the northern part of China. However, during the weak years, the summer rainfall belt is largely located over the mid-and lower-reaches of the Yangtze River. Additionally, the SMI has obvious oscillations of quasi 4-6 years and quasi 2 years. Moreover, negative SMI predicts EASM better than positive SMI.

The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s

Previous studies have documented a weakening tendency of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) since the end of the 1970s. In this study, we report that the EASM has been recovering since the early 1990s, although its strength is still less than in previous decades (averaged over the period 1965-1980). Following the recovery of the EASM, there has been a tendency in the last decade toward northward-moving rainbands and excessive rainfall in the Huaihe River valley (110°-120°E, 30°-35°N). There is evidence suggesting that the strengthening EASM since the early 1990s is linked to interdecadal change of land-sea thermal contrast.

Regional integrated environmental model system and its simulation of East Asia summer monsoon

A continuous 22-year simulation in Asia for the period of 1 January 1979 to 31 December 2000 was conducted using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0) with NCEP Reanalysis Ⅱ data as the driving fields. The model processes include surface physics state package (BATS 1e), a Grell cumulus parameterization, and a modified radiation package (CCM3) with the focus on the ability of the model to simulate the summer monsoon over East Asia. The analysis results show that (1) RIEMS reproduces well the spatial pattern and the seasonal cycle of surface temperature. When regionally averaged, the summer mean temperature biases are within 1―2℃. (2) For precipitation, the model reproduces well the spatial pattern, and temporal evolution of the East Asia summer monsoon rain belt, with steady phases separated by more rapid transitions, is reproduced. The rain belt simulated by RIEMS 2.0 is closer to observation than by RIEMS 1.0. (3) RIEMS 2.0 can reasonably reproduce the large-scale circulation.

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon-The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea, and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.

THE EARLY SUMMER FLOOD PERIODS OF SOUTHERN CHINA AND THE SUMMER MONSOON CIRCULATION OF EAST ASIA

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THE INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF EAST ASIA MONSOON AND ITS EFFECT ON THE RAINFALL OVER CHINA

The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951～1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.

Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon in Recent Decades

The analysis of 43 years of NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and station observations reveals the connections between tropospheric temperature variations and the weakening of the Indian summer monsoon circulation. The Indian summer monsoon variation is strongly linked to tropospheric temperature over East Asia, showing significant positive correlations of mean tropospheric temperature with all-Indian summer rainfall and the monsoon circulation

Global and China temperature changes associated with the inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon advances

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances.A climate pattern of "wet-north and dry-south" in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region.On the contrary,a climate pattern of "dry-north and wet-south" in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region.An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed.

THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE PRECEDING WINTER MJO ACTIVITIES AND THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN OF CHINA

The first two series(RMM1 and RMM2) of RMM Index(all-Season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index) are computed to obtain the interannual variation of the preceding winter(preceding December to current February) MJO strength,according to which active(or inactive) years of preceding winter MJO are divided.By utilizing the data provided by NCEP/NCAR,CMAP and China's 160 stations from 1979 to 2008,we studied the preceding winter MJO strength and discovered that the summer precipitation in the basin are of significantly negative correlation,i.e.when the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,the summer precipitation in the basin decreases,and vise verse.We also analyzed the causes.When the preceding winter MJO is relatively active,its release of potential heat facilities Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) to strengthen and locate northward in winter and propagate northeastward.This abnormal situation lasts from winter to summer.In mid-May,ITCZ jumps northward to the South China Sea,the western Pacific subtropical high withdraws eastward,and the South China Sea summer monsoon sets off and strengthens.In summer,ITCZ propagates to South China Sea-subtropical western Pacific,the zonal circulation of subtropical Pacific strengthens,and a local meridional circulation of the South China Sea to the basin area forms,giving rise to the East Asia Pacific teleconnection wave-train.An East Asian monsoon trough and the Meiyu front show opposite features from south to north,the East Asian summer monsoon strengthens and advances northward.As a result,the summer monsoon is weakened as the basin is controlled by the subtropical high continually,with less rain in summer.On the contrary,when the preceding winter MJO is inactive,ITCZ weakens and is located southward,the subtropical high is located southward in summer,and the basin is in a region of ascending airflow with prevailing southwest wind.The East Asian monsoon trough and EASM weaken so that summer monsoon is reduced in the basin where precipitation increases.

ON THE PROCESS OF SUMMER MONSOON ONSET OVER EAST ASIA

Using daily observational rainfall data covered 194 stations of China from 1961 to 1995 and NCEP model analyzed pentad precipitation data of global grid point from 1979 to 1997,the distribution of onset date of rainy season over Asian area from spring to summer is studied in this paper.The analyzed results show that there exist two stages of rainy season onset over East Asian region from spring to summer rainy season onset accompanying subtropical monsoon and tropical monsoon respectively.The former rain belt is mainly formed by the convergence of cold air and the recurred southwesterly flow from western part of subtropical high and westerly flow from the so- called western trough of subtropical region occurring during winter to spring over South Asia.The latter is formed in the process of subtropical monsoon rain belt over inshore regions of South China Sea originally coming from south of Changjiang (Yangtze) River Basin advancing with northward shift of subtropical high after the onset of tropical monsoon over South China Sea.The pre-flood rainy season over South China region then came into mature period and the second peak of rainfall appeared.Meiyu,the rainy season over Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin and North China then formed consequently.The process of summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea in 1998 is also discussed in this paper.It indicated that the monsoon during summer tropical monsoon onset over South China Sea is the result of the westerly flow over middle part of South China Sea, which is from the new generated cyclone formed in north subtropical high entering into South China Sea,converged with the tropical southwesterly flow recurred by the intensified cross- equatorial flow.

An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index and Its Relationship to Summer Rainfall in China

Using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the monthly rainfall observations at 160 rain gauge stations of China during 1961 1999, and based on major characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the western Pacific, a simple index for the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon （EASSM） is defined. The relationship between this index and summer rainfall in China and associated circulation features are examined. A comparison is made between this index and other monsoon indices. The results indicate that the index defined herein is reflective of variations of both the thermal low pressure centered in Siberia and the subtropical ridge over the western Pacific. It epitomizes the intensity of the EASSM and the variability of summer rainfall along the Yangtze River. Analysis shows that the Siberian low has a greater effect on the rainfall than the subtropical ridge, suggesting that the summer rainfall variability over the eastern parts of China is to a large extent affected by anomalies of the atmospheric circulation and cold air development in the midlatitudes. Taking into account of the effects of both the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge can better capture the summer rainfall anomalies of China. The index exhibits interannual and decadal variabilities, with high-index values occurring mainly in the 1960s and 1970s and low-index values in the 1980s and 1990s. When the EASSM index is low, the Siberian low and the subtropical ridge are weaker, and northerly wind anomalies appear at low levels over the midlatitudes and subtropics of East Asia, whereas southwesterly wind anomalies dominate in the upper troposphere over the tropics and subtropics of Asia and the western Pacific. The northerly wind anomalies bring about frequent cold air disturbances from the midlatitudes of East Asia, strengthening the convergence and ascending motions along the Meiyu front, and result in an increase of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River.

Antarctica Sea-ice Oscillation and Its Possible Impact on Monsoon of South Sea

Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index with a seesaw pattern is defined using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis girds data of monthly Antarctica sea-ice concentration from 1979 to 2002.The relationships between the index of winter and the summer precipitations in China as well as the onset date of the summer East Asia monsoon are presented.The study result shows that the grids of correlation coefficients passed 5% confidence level between Antarctic sea-ice oscillation index and Antarctic sea-ice concentration are more than 1/3 of all grids of Antarctica sea-ice,that means the index can represent 1/3 sea-ice area.The winter index has a significant correlation with abnormal summer（June-August） precipitation in China.The area of positive correlation lies in the Yangtze River basin and its south,and that of negative correlation lies mainly in the north of Yangtze River basin.While the winter index is positive（negative）,the onset date of South China Sea monsoon is earlier（later）,with a probability of 79%（80%）.Consequently, a conceptual model is given in term of discussing the possible process between the winter Antarctic sea ice and the monsoon precipitation in China.

FIRST TRANSITION OF THE CIRCULATIONS IN ASIA AROUND MID－MAY FROM 7－YEAR MEAN ECMWF DATA

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IMPACT OF SUMMER MONSOON'S ANNUAL VARIATION IN EAST ASIA ON DROUGHT

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黄土高原红粘土成因及上新世北方干旱化问题

本文通过对黄土高原第三纪红粘土的野外观察，以及沉积学和地球化学分析，得到能证明红粘土为风成沉积的新证据。另外，佳县红粘土沉积的土壤学特征表明，上新世时期的东亚夏季风强度总体强于第四纪。

东亚夏季风推进过程的气候特征及其年代际变化

利用1951￣2001年NECP的逐日再分析资料及中国东部366站1957￣2000年逐日降水资料,提出东亚夏季风推进过程的定量指标,分析东亚夏季风推进过程的年代际变化。结果表明:标准降水指数为1.5的等值线较好反映了中国东部夏季雨带的南北移动,以及雨带推进过程中呈现的阶段性与突变性特征。东亚夏季风的推进过程具有显著年代际变化,与夏季风前沿位置有关的指标在20世纪60年代中期前后发生显著变化,与夏季风推进强度有关的指标则在70年代末出现突变。60年代中期前,南海夏季风的建立时间较迟,但北推较快,夏季风前沿到达华北地区时间较早,在华北地区维持时间长,夏季风的北界位置偏北,华北雨季、淮河梅雨明显。70年代末以后南海夏季风的建立时间较早,夏季风前沿附近南风强度明显偏弱,降水主要集中在长江流域及其以南地区,华北雨季不明显。

中国降水量变化的空间分布特征与东亚夏季风

利用NCEP/NCAR海平面气压场和中国站点月降水量资料,研究了中国近47 a来的降水量变化空间分布特征及东亚夏季风与中国夏、秋季降水的关系。1961-2007年中国年降水量减少的区域主要在东北、华北、西北东部、西南东部和华南西部,形成一个东北-西南向的带状区域,其余大部为增加趋势,其中陕西北部和四川中南部减少趋势显著,增加趋势显著的地区主要在西部,特别是新疆西北部。冬季降水量中国大部分地区为增加趋势,只有华北和西南的少部分地区为减少趋势;春季降水量青藏高原东部显著增加,陕西南部显著减少;夏季东北、华北和西南地区降水量为减少趋势,东南和西北大部为增加趋势,其中新疆北部和青海北部增加显著;秋季降水量中国的西部大部为增加趋势,东部大部为减少趋势,在甘肃南部和四川东部减少趋势显著。年降水量为增加趋势的区域面积大于减少趋势的区域面积;冬、春、夏季为增加趋势的面积显著地大于减少趋势的面积,其中冬季差异最大,只有秋季减少趋势的面积大于增加趋势的面积。年降水量相对变率低值区主要在西南和华南,高值区主要在新疆南部的塔里木盆地(盆地中有著名的塔克拉玛干沙漠),其次是内蒙古西部的沙漠地带。四个季节的降水量相对变率与年的分布类似。近61 a来东亚夏季风强度分别在20世纪60年代中期和70年代中期出现了两次明显的减弱过程。东亚夏季风与中国夏、秋季的降水量相关明显。东亚夏季风的减弱可能是中国夏季东北、华北和西南地区以及秋季东部地区降水量减少的一个重要原因。

树轮降水记录及东亚夏季风强弱变化——以内蒙古包头地区为例

在精确交叉定年的基础上 ,依据树木年轮宽度指标 ,分别精确重建了中国内蒙古包头地区过去 2 6 0a来 2— 7月上旬及 6— 8月上旬降水总量 ,方差解释量分别达到 42 6 0 %和 32 6 0 % ,并与历史记载进行了良好的对比。通过 6— 8月上旬降水总量所反应的干湿时段的分析 ,研究了东亚夏季风10 0 10 1a尺度的强弱变化历史。发现在过去近 2 6 0a中 ,东亚夏季风经历了 8次较强和 8次较弱的发展过程。同时周期分析表明 ,6— 8月上旬降水存在 12 6 3,7 5 ,5 115 2 2 ,4 5 34 6 2 ,3 16 3 5 3a的准周期。