Recent Crustal Stress Field and Dislocation Along Seismic Faults in the East China Region

A statistic analysis of the characteristics of recent tectonic stress fields in the East China region was performed using 143 sets of data of single focal mechanical solutions of moderate and small earthquakes and 17 sets of data of composite focal mechanism solutions. The result shows that at present the East China region is controlled by an ENE-（ about 80°） oriented principal compressive and NNW-（about 350°） oriented principal tensile stress field. The effect mode of the principal stress is mainly horizontal and sub-horizontal. In a background of basic consistency of the direction and effect mode of stress field, the existence of different seismotectonic zones may be related to the distribution of major active faults in the relevant areas. It indicates the effect and control of the existing structures on the seismic dislocation. Analysis of focal mechanism solution data of recent moderate and small earthquakes and directions of long axes of isoseismal contours of historic moderate and strong earthquakes and recent felt earthquakes indicates that seismic rupture and dislocation in East China region occurred mainly along the faults in NE and NW directions, and sometimes in NNE, ENE, WNW or near-WE directions. Movement along the seismic faults is mainly strike-slip or nearstrike-slip, with a less oblique slip component. Regional difference in dislocation modes exist along the seismic faults. The historical moderate and strong earthquakes in East China produced mainly NE-trending ruptures and dislocations, while the recent earthquakes produced NW-SE ruptures and dislocations in the land region and NE and NW ones in the sea areas.

Detection of the Kuroshio frontal instable processes (KFIP) in the East China Sea using the MODIS images

The Kuroshio frontal instable processes （KFIP） in the East China Sea （ECS） not only have a great impact on the hydrologic characteristics,the pollutants drift,the distribution of seafloor sediment and the ships navigation of the ECS,but also are closely related to the climate changes of the coastal areas of the ECS.However the frequency and area of occurrence of the KFIP have not been studied fully and detailedly.Because of its high spatial and temporal resolution,MODIS data is a kind of very good data source for surveying and researching the KFIP in the ECS.The aim of this study is to detect the KFIP in the ECS by using MODIS data,and to study the frequency and region of occurrence of the KFIP in the ECS.The selection has coverage of level 2 data of MODIS SST and Kd490 ranging from July 1,2002 to June 30,2009 of the ECS when there was no cloud impact or little.By using of the data,the minimum standard of the Kuroshio temperature fronts and the diffuse attenuation coefficient （Kd490） fronts of the ECS are given.Based on these standards and the curvature distinguish methods,the standard of curvature distinguish for the KFIP in the ECS are put forward.By making use of this standard,we study a total of 2073 satellite-derived images,and discover that as long as there is no cloud impact from January to May and October to December,the KFIP in the ECS are surely found in MODIS satellite images.From June to September,the frequency of occurrence can also reach to 82.9% at least.Moreover,it is obtained that there are three source regions of these instability processes,namely,（26°N,121.5°E） nearby,（27°N,125°E） nearby and （30°N,128°E） nearby.The differences of the characteristics of these instability processes which are generated in different regions are analyzed in the present study.

The Statistical Significance Test of Regional Climate Change Caused by Land Use and Land Cover Variation in West China

The West Development Policy being implemented in China is causing significant land use and land cover （LULC） changes in West China. With the up-to-date satellite database of the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database （GLCCD） that characterizes the lower boundary conditions, the regional climate model RIEMS-TEA is used to simulate possible impacts of the significant LULC variation. The model was run for five continuous three-month periods from 1 June to 1 September of 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997, and the results of the five groups are examined by means of a student t-test to identify the statistical significance of regional climate variation. The main results are： （1） The regional climate is affected by the LULC variation because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed. （2） The integrated impact of the LULC variation on regional climate is not only limited to West China where the LULC varies, but also to some areas in the model domain where the LULC does not vary at all. （3） The East Asian monsoon system and its vertical structure are adjusted by the large scale LULC variation in western China, where the consequences are the enhancement of the westward water vapor transfer from the east oast and the relevant increase of wet-hydrostatic energy in the middle-upper atmospheric layers. （4） The ecological engineering in West China affects significantly the regional climate in Northwest China, North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; there are obvious effects in South, Northeast, and Southwest China, but minor effects in Tibet.

基于华东区域模式云南短时强降水客观预报技术研究

为提高云南短时强降水的预报效率和预报准确率,使用华东区域模式基础物理量数据,计算云南短时强降水发生前1 h 700 hPa相对湿度、700 hPa比湿、K指数和6 km垂直风切变,对短时强降水的历史个例进行物理量阈值训练和单物理量的敏感性实验,确定物理量阈值。使用阈值判定法,对华东区域模式实时预报数据进行后处理,得到基于小时雨量和物理量的云南本地化短时强降水客观预报产品。研究结果表明:使用阈值判定法研发的基于华东区域模式云南短时强降水客观预报产品能较好地预报云南短时强降水的落区和走向,但是基于小时雨量的短时强降水客观预报产品漏报明显,基于物理量阈值的客观预报产品能有效降低云南短时强降水的漏报率。

夏季华东地区室外热舒适经验指标模型建立

伴随国民经济水平的提高,室外的热舒适水平逐渐受到民众的广泛关注。尤其是在经济发达的华东地区,人口密集,夏季的炎热气候严重影响了民众在室外空间的热舒适与体验。已有研究表明,在一些地区,基于当地调研数据建立的经验指标模型能够更好地预测当地民众的室外热舒适状况。因此,文章对华东地区代表性城市金华市展开微气候环境测量与问卷调查,利用统计学方法多元回归对调研数据进行分析,最终建立经验指标模型并验证其适用性。研究结果表明,在回归分析得出的三个模型中,选取拟合度最优的模型为经验指标模型,具体公式为:TSV_(model)=0.228T_(a)-0.211V+0.201T_(g)-13.947(R^(2)=0.715,P<0.001)。所得经验指标模型为夏季华东地区基于室外热舒适的空间优化设计研究提供了评价指标选择的参考。

2001-2020年东海区大陆海岸带复合生态系统韧性时空演变

海岸带是自然、社会、经济相互作用频繁的地区,然而,过度开发胁迫海岸带生态环境退化。海岸带复合生态系统韧性研究有利于实现精准有效的生态保护。本文综合多源数据从复合生态系统基底状态、社会经济发展与资源环境禀赋的耦合协调关系、复合生态系统的可持续发展潜力、人类活动对环境的影响范围与强度方面构建评价体系,定量评估2001-2020年东海区大陆海岸带复合生态系统韧性,分析韧性时空演变特征与空间分异的影响因素。结果表明:(1)2001-2020年东海区大陆海岸带复合生态系统韧性呈波动下降趋势,韧性空间异质性显著,具有明显的海陆梯度地带性。(2)林地是维持区域复合生态系统韧性的主体。(3)反映人类活动分布与强度的因素对复合生态系统韧性的影响越来越大。研究为保护、恢复、促进海岸带复合生态系统可持续利用与管理提供了理论支持与实践参考。

基于熵权TOPSIS法的华东七省物流发展水平评价

当前,关于我国华东地区七省物流发展水平的研究较少。为深入探究华东地区物流发展水平,推动该区域物流行业的健康发展,进而保障该区域经济发展的稳步运行和持续进步,本文基于熵权TOPSIS方法,选出18个有关指标进行体系构建与分析,并对华东七省的物流发展水平现状做出评价,同时根据评价结果给出相应的对策建议,以供参考。

东海区域海洋学调查研究回顾

由于近几十年来日益增强的人类活动影响,近海海洋环境较过去发生了巨大变化;科学认知近海海洋环境特征、变化和控制因素对于应对全球变化具有重要意义,是当前海洋学关注的重要议题。东海作为中国重要的海洋区域之一,存在独特的环流系统,孕育了大河口、上升流和黑潮三个代表性的生态系统,其海洋科学研究对于我国的海洋资源开发、环境保护和国家安全具有重要意义。本文通过对东海区域海洋学研究的现状进行综述,围绕海洋生物地球化学这一主线,重点总结了物理海洋学、海洋化学、海洋地质学和生物海洋学的相关研究进展,分析了目前存在的问题,并展望了未来的发展方向。研究表明,东海区域海洋环境受到人类活动和气候变化的深刻影响,呈现新的变化格局;长江径流输入、黑潮北上及其入侵陆架是东海三大生态系统格局形成的主要驱动力。除主要的环流结构外,穿刺锋面和跨陆架海流是连接东海内陆架和外陆架水体的主要动力过程,并促进了碳等重要生源物质的跨陆架输送。相关研究在海洋生态环境、应对气候变化、海洋灾害等方面取得了一定的成果,但仍面临着数据不足、研究领域不够广泛等挑战。东海海洋环境在时间和空间上变化均较大,且存在近岸富营养化、大河口低氧现象等主要环境问题,因此有必要加强东海区域海洋学的研究。未来,应鼓励自由探索研究,加强国内、国际合作,提高数据共享和技术创新能力,推动东海海洋研究迈向更高水平。

Study on the Recent Tectonic Stress Field in the “Huoshan Seismic Window” Region

The focal mechanisms of 62 moderate-small earthquakes since 1980 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region are calculated with the method developed recently by Snoke, combining the use of the first motion of P, SV and SH waves with their amplitude ratios. Based on these abundant focal mechanisms, the mean tectonic stress field in the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is inverted with the average stress tensor method, and the result shows that the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is horizontally compressed in the near EW direction and horizontally dilated in the near NS direction, which is in accord with statistical results of focal mechanism parameters. We estimate the difference （also referred to as consistency parameter 0） between the force axis direction of the focal mechanism solution and the mean stress tensor, then further analyze the variation characteristics of 0 versus time, and the relationship with moderately strong earthquakes in the east China region. The result indicates that 0 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region is in good correspondence with moderately strong earthquakes in the East China region. When 0 is lower than the mean value, corresponding moderately strong earthquakes may occur in the East China region.

基于非线性混合效应的华东地区主要优势树种林分水平树高-胸径模型

【目的】使用非线性混合效应(nonlinear mixed-effects,NLME)方法建立华东地区林分水平树高-胸径模型,提供一个较大地域尺度的林分树高预测工具,并与传统非线性回归方法比较,探索非线性混合效应方法在构建树高-胸径模型上的表现。【方法】基于华东地区7个省级单元国家森林资源连续清查数据,构建主要优势树种哑变量,采用非线性混合效应方法建立林分水平树高-胸径模型。【结果】非线性混合效应方法在训练集与测试集上均表现优秀,训练集R2、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对偏差(MAE)分别为0.678 5、2.396 7 m和1.832 6 m,测试集R2、RMSE与MAE分别为0.673 8、2.352 0 m和1.798 5 m。与不加入随机效应的传统回归方法相比,混合效应模型在训练集中,R2提升了8.13%,MAE与RMSE分别下降了7.09%与6.87%;在测试集表现中,R2上升了7.75%,RMSE与MAE分别下降了6.61%和5.97%。【结论】使用非线性混合效应方法建立了华东地区主要树种的林分水平树高-胸径模型,最终模型的拟合精度和预测精度均优于传统回归模型,模型适用的覆盖区域较广,能够为森林经营实践提供依据。

东海近岸大气中的^(210)Po、^(210)Bi和^(210)Pb及其沉降入海通量评估

大气^(210)Po、^(210)Bi和^(210)Pb的沉降通量是海洋中核素示踪颗粒物动力学过程(颗粒有机碳输出、颗粒物输运)的基础参数,为揭示我国近海地区^(210)Po、^(210)Bi和^(210)Pb活度浓度的时空变化规律并估算其沉降入海通量,本文于2016年9月至翌年2月和2021年9-11月分别对上海及厦门地区近地表大气气溶胶中^(210)Po、^(210)Pb和^(210)Bi的活度浓度进行了连续观测;基于^(210)Po-^(210)Pb活度比(^(210)Po/^(210)Pb)和^(210)Bi-^(210)Pb活度比(^(210)Bi/^(210)Pb)两种示踪法计算了气溶胶颗粒物的滞留时间,并利用一维简单气溶胶沉降速率模型估算了3种核素以大气沉降方式输入东海的通量。结果显示,2016年上海秋、冬两季^(210)Po、^(210)Bi、^(210)Pb 3种核素活度浓度的变化范围分别为0.11~1.27 m Bq/m^(3)、0.45~1.83 m Bq/m^(3)和1.12~6.10 m Bq/m^(3);2021年秋季厦门^(210)Po、^(210)Bi、^(210)Pb 3种核素活度浓度的变化范围分别为0.05~0.85 m Bq/m^(3)、0.83~2.52 m Bq/m^(3)和0.17~1.32 m Bq/m^(3),上海近地表气溶胶中3种核素的活度浓度秋季平均值比厦门地区高。利用^(210)Po/^(210)Pb和^(210)Bi/^(210)Pb计算得到上海和厦门近地面大气的气溶胶滞留时间存在显著差异,基于^(210)Po/^(210)Pb计算上海气溶胶滞留时间均值为(94±54)d,基于^(210)Bi/^(210)Pb计算上海气溶胶滞留时间均值为(6.4±4.8)d,造成这种差异的原因很可能是两种示踪法本身具有的系统性差异。本文基于一维简易气溶胶沉降速率模型估算了上海地区的^(210)Pb、^(210)Bi和^(210)Po的大气沉降入东海的通量,其在秋季期间的变化范围分别为0.1~26.35 Bq/(m^(2)·d)、0.04~7.91 Bq/(m^(2)·d)和0.01~5.49 Bq/(m^(2)·d)。基于模型估算的^(210)Po、^(210)Bi和^(210)Pb沉降通量与研究区域的实际观测值接近一致,表明利用一维简易气溶胶沉降速率模型间接估算法在替代观测站直测核素的沉降入海通量方面具有一定可行性。

新时代中俄推进远东地区农业务实合作研究

中俄关系进入新时代,两国之间的贸易项目越发多样化,其中两国农贸合作引人注目。因为远东地区土地资源丰富,接近中国消费市场,又因俄罗斯政府的进口替代政策及转向东方政策,所以俄罗斯十分重视远东地区的农业开发。俄罗斯加大对远东地区的开发力度,将其视为未来的粮食出口中心。中国因为处于农业结构调整的进程中,也十分重视远东地区的农业开发,并向远东地区注资合作。两国恰好在农业领域需求互补,因此联合开发远东便提上日程。该文旨在悉数俄罗斯农业及远东地区农业的发展状况,分析中俄两国在远东地区的农业合作项目,并提出推动两国在远东地区进一步深化农业合作的建议。

中俄跨境次区域合作助力东北全面振兴:机遇、挑战与对策

在新时代东北全面振兴和俄罗斯远东大开发战略的背景下,中俄“东北—远东”跨境次区域经贸合作提质升级,基础设施日益完善,能源合作不断深化,农业合作大力开拓。作为中俄合作的桥头堡和最前沿,中俄“东北—远东”跨境次区域合作具有地缘优势、资源互补优势及战略对接优势,既是打造中国向北开放新高地的客观需要,也是响应俄罗斯远东大开发的现实选择,同时还是构建东北亚区域合作新格局的实现路径。然而,中国东北地区和俄罗斯远东地区都属于经济发展外围区和经济技术低梯度区,在体制机制、经济发展、对外开放和思想观念等方面都存在着短板。为此,中俄双方需要全面发力、多点突破:一是加强政策对接协调,完善体制机制,如有效市场机制、城市群机制、东北三省一区协调机制和东北亚次区域协作机制;二是拓宽协同发展路径,创新经贸模式,加强能源、农业和高新技术等领域合作;三是推动东北亚区域经济一体化,完善区域基础设施、跨境物流体系建设;四是涵养文化软经济,促进人文交流、人才交流,改善营商环境。

Early Crystallized Titanomagnetite from Evolved Magmas and Magma Recharge in the Mesoproterozoic Zhuqing Oxide-Bearing Gabbroic Intrusions,Sichuan,SW China

The ca. 1.5 Ga mafic intrusions in the Zhuqing area, predominantly composed of alkaline gabbroic rocks in the Kangdian region of SW China, occur as dykes or irregular small intrusions hosting Fe–Ti–V mineralization. All of the intrusions that intrude the dolomite or shales of the Mesoproterozoic Heishan Formation of the Huili Group are composed of three cyclic units from the base upward： a marginal cyclic unit, a lower cyclic unit and an upper cyclic unit. The Fe–Ti–V oxide ore bodies are hosted in the lower and upper cyclic units. The textural relationships between minerals in the intrusions suggest that titanomagnetite formed earlier than silicate grains because euhedral magnetite and ilmenite grains were enclosed in clinopyroxene and plagioclase. Both the magnetitess–ilmenitess intergrowths due to subsolidus oxidation–exsolutions and the relative higher V distribution coefficient between magnetite and silicate melts in the gabbros from the Zhuqing area are different from those of other typical Fe–Ti bearing mafic rocks, suggesting that the oxygen fugacity was low in the gabbric rocks from the Zhuqing area. This finding was further confirmed by calculations based on the compositions of magnetite and ilmenite pairs. The clinopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite in the intrusions from the Zhuqing area had considerably lower Mg O than those of other typical Fe–Ti oxide-rich complexes, suggesting that the titanomagnetite from the intrusion may have crystallized at a relatively late stage of evolution from a more evolved magma. Titanomagnetite first fractionally crystallized and subsequently settled in the lower parts of the magma chamber, where it concentrated and formed Fe–Ti–V oxide ore layers at the bases of the lower and upper cycles. Moreover, the occurrence of multiple Fe-Ti oxide layers alternating with Fe-Ti oxide-bearing silicate layers suggests that multiple pulses of magma were involved in the formation of the intrusions and related Fe-Ti-V oxide deposits in the Zhuqing area.

西北地区东部春夏季旱涝转换环流特征及其与大西洋海温的关系

随着全球变暖,旱涝异常的强度和频率不断增加,为增进对旱涝异常转换事件的认识,提高西北地区东部降水预测水平,利用1979—2020年我国西北地区东部逐月降水、海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)数据以及NCEP/NCAR环流再分析资料,通过建立旱涝转换指数,对西北地区东部春、夏季旱涝转换环流特征进行分析,并围绕大西洋SST异常对其可能产生的影响进行探讨。结果表明:西北地区东部旱转涝年,春季极涡偏弱,乌拉尔山阻塞高压偏强,东亚大槽偏深,西北地区东部受西北干冷气流控制,降水易偏少;夏季上游低值系统活跃,南亚高压偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,西北地区东部受副热带高压和上游低槽系统共同影响,且有暖湿气流,降水易偏多,涝转旱年情况相反。上年冬季至当年夏季,大西洋类“三极子”型的SST异常是造成季节间降水明显差异的关键因子,旱转涝年春季大西洋类“三极子”负位相的SST状态激发出一支纬向型遥相关波列,经欧洲中西部、巴尔喀什湖地区东传至我国东北至日本海一带,此时中高纬环流形势有利于西北地区东部降水偏少;夏季SST异常激发的波列强度减弱、位置西移,中高纬关键环流系统的强度和位置较春季明显调整,转为有利于研究区降水偏多的环流形势,涝转旱年相反。

华东地区低碳消费研究

伴随中国经济高质量发展稳步推进,国家经济政策的包容性特点更加突出,通过构建包容性的绿色低碳经济,实现人类永续发展和满足人民对美好生活的需要,是全面推动经济社会高质量发展的新目标和新要求。中国社会科学院从公众认知角度选取华东地区为调研范围,就包容性低碳消费环境建设情况开展了跟踪调查。调查结果显示:居民的绿色低碳意识正在持续提升,对当地包容性绿色低碳消费环境的建设信心较强,国家政策导向、政府宣传效力、居民的主观认知水平是影响绿色低碳消费环境的三个重要因素。政府对营商环境的体制机制等的顶层设计、科技创新水平以及重点企业转型升级等是建设包容性绿色低碳消费环境的重要着力点。另外,经济发展水平和居民收入水平等也会影响居民的绿色低碳消费方式。因此,对接绿色低碳消费的重点领域企业转型升级、注重绿色低碳消费方式的宣传引导、推动企业的高质量发展、做好宣传引导等举措是优化绿色低碳消费环境的必要措施。以山东省包容性绿色低碳消费环境建设实践为例进行分析,在此基础上提出华东地区优化绿色低碳消费环境的具体路径。

华东地区(六省一市)跨省步道系统构建研究

为构建优质高效的华东地区跨省步道系统,推动区域体育资源联动发展,运用GIS空间分析法、因子加权叠加法、层次分析法等方法,综合考虑地理条件、自然条件、交通可达性等因素,创建了具有科学性、准确性、直观性的华东地区适宜性步道选线底图,在此基础上,构建出我国华东地区跨省步道系统。研究得出:沿海岸线步道适宜开展休闲观光、垂钓冲浪等特色项目;长江赣江步道沿江风景步道,适宜开展皮划艇、内陆野营、徒步旅行为主的户外项目;京杭大运河-长深高速步道、淮河步道适宜开展以骑行为主徒步游览为辅的户外运动;318国道(华东段)步道沿途风景优美适宜开展以徒步、骑行越野为特色的户外运动;闽江步道位于南部山区适宜开展户外攀岩、登山、皮划艇等运动。

东海区大型水母数量分布特征及其与温盐度的关系

以 2 0 0 4年 4月和 6月东海区中北部海域大型水母的监测调查结果为依据 ,分析了东海区大型水母的主要种类组成、数量分布及其与温度、盐度环境的关系、以及主要种类间的个体生长差异。结果表明 :4月大型水母的优势种类多管水母约占 75 %、霞水母约占 15 %和沙水母约占 5 % ;6月大型水母的优势种类沙海蜇约占 6 0 %、多管水母约占 2 0 %和霞水母约占 10 %。其中沙海蜇和霞水母为往年东海区大量暴发的种类。沙海蜇为低温高盐种 ,适温范围为 12～ 17℃ ,主要分布于黄海冷水团伸向东海舌锋的锋面以北海域 ,密集分布区最高网产为 10 0 0 0 kg/ h左右 ;霞水母为暖水高盐种 ,适温范围为 2 0～ 2 5℃ ,主要密集分布于东海北部的暖水控制海域。黄海冷水团势力强弱可作为判别沙海蜇暴发程度的一个重要参考因子。东海区大型水母主要优势种的生长速度以沙海蜇最快 ,其次为霞水母 ,而多管水母相对较慢 。

东海区伏季休渔渔业生态效果的分析研究

以１９９０ ～１９９８ 年我国东海区的海洋渔业统计资料和渔业资源动态监测资料为依据，分析研究１９９５ ～１９９８ 年伏季休渔对东海区渔业生态效果的影响。结果表明，带鱼等主要经济鱼类的产卵群体得到了有效保护；经济幼鱼的渔获比例及其资源密度指数有所提高，幼鱼群体养护效果也较明显；渔获个体的生物学特征值具有转好的趋势；主要经济鱼类资源生物量明显增加；渔业资源的种间结构得到一定程度的改善；年渔获产量明显增加，单位捕捞努力量渔获量（ＣＰＵＥ） 有所提高。