Time-lagged Effects of the Spring Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China during 1961–2020:Role of Soil Moisture

The spring atmospheric heat source(AHS)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has been suggested to affect the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation over South China.However,its influence on the summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC)remains unknown.The connection between spring TP AHS and subsequent summer precipitation over NEC from 1961 to 2020 is analyzed in this study.Results illustrate that stronger spring TP AHS can enhance subsequent summer NEC precipitation,and higher soil moisture in the Yellow River Valley-North China region(YRVNC)acts as a bridge.During spring,the strong TP AHS could strengthen the transportation of water vapor to East China and lead to excessive rainfall in the YRVNC.Thus,soil moisture increases,which regulates local thermal conditions by decreasing local surface skin temperature and sensible heat.Owing to the memory of soil moisture,the lower spring sensible heat over the YRVNC can last until mid-summer,decrease the land–sea thermal contrast,and weaken the southerly winds over the East Asia–western Pacific region and convective activities over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific.This modulates the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern,which leads to a cyclonic anomaly and excessive summer precipitation over NEC.

Differences in Precipitation and Related Wind Dynamics and Moisture and Heat Features in Separate Areas of the South China Sea before and after Summer Monsoon Onset

Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.

Analysis of Changing Trend of Summer Precipitation in North China

Based on the reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the precipitation dataset of the U.S.Climate Prediction Center(CPC),the changing trend of summer precipitation in North China(35°-40°N,110°-125°E)during 1979-2020 was studied.By calculating the monthly climatic precipitation in North China,it is found that precipitation was mainly distributed from June to August,so the trend of precipitation in North China from June to August was mainly analyzed.Firstly,the five-point moving average of regional mean precipitation in North China from June to August during 1979-2020 was conducted.It is found that the fitting curve of the five-point sliding average was basically consistent with the changing trend of regional precipitation,and it showed a certain upward trend.Secondly,the cumulative anomaly of regional average summer precipitation in North China showed a significant upward trend after 2005,which was similar to the moving average result,indicating that the precipitation in the later period increased compared with the earlier period.The changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years was analyzed,and the results show that precipitation showed a significant increasing trend in most areas of North China,so that regional average precipitation also tended to increase significantly.By comparing the precipitation in the past five years(2016-2020)and the last 36 years(1979-2015),it is found that the increase of summer precipitation in North China was more obvious,so the reasons for the increase in precipitation were further analyzed.Since the occurrence of precipitation requires favorable thermal dynamic conditions,the one-dimensional linear regression of water vapor content at 850 hPa and meridional wind speed was conduced,and it is found that the two variables tended to increase obviously,which was consistent with the increasing trend of precipitation.Seen from both the results of regional average and the spatial distribution of trends,the lower atmospheric water vapor content and wind speed showed a significant positive trend,which led to the increase of summer precipitation.Therefore,it can be concluded that there was a certain changing trend of summer precipitation in North China in the past 42 years,which can provide certain reference for the future forecast of summer precipitation in North China.

Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of Spring Soil Moisture over the Indo-China Peninsula for Eastern China Summer Precipitation under Non-ENSO Conditions

Seasonal prediction of summer precipitation over eastern China is closely linked to the East Asian monsoon circulation,which is largely affected by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).In this study,results show that spring soil moisture(SM)over the Indo-China peninsula(ICP)could be a reliable seasonal predictor for eastern China summer precipitation under non-ENSO conditions.When springtime SM anomalies are present over the ICP,they trigger a structured response in summertime precipitation over most of eastern China.The resultant south-to-north,tri-polar configuration of precipitation anomalies has a tendency to yield increased(decreased)precipitation in the Yangtze River basin and decreased(increased)in South and North China with a drier(wetter)spring soil condition in the ICP.The analyses show that ENSO exerts a powerful control on the East Asian circulation system in the ENSO-decaying summer.In the case of ENSO forcing,the seasonal predictability of the ICP spring SM for eastern China summer precipitation is suppressed.However,in the absence of the influence of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies from the preceding winter,the SM anomalies over the ICP induce abnormal local heating and a consequent geopotential height response owing to its sustained control on local temperature,which could,in turn,lead to abnormal eastern China summer precipitation by affecting the East Asian summer monsoon circulation.The present findings provide a better understanding of the complexity of summer climate predictability over eastern China,which is of potential significance for improving the livelihood of the people.

Moisture Sources and Their Contributions to Summer Precipitation in the East of Southwest China

Complex topography,special geographical location and sea-land-air interactions lead to high interannual variability of summer precipitation in the east of Southwest China(ESWC).However,the contributions,influencing factors and mechanisms of remote and local evaporation remain to be further investigated.Using clustering analysis and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory version 5 model,we analyze the contributions of remote moisture transport and local evaporation to summer precipitation in the ESWC and their causes.There are mainly five remote moisture channels in the ESWC,namely the Arabian Sea channel,Bay of Bengal channel,western Pacific channel,Northwest channel 1 and Northwest channel 2.Among the five channels,the western Pacific channel has the largest number of trajectories,while the Bay of Bengal channel has the largest contribution rate of specific humidity(33.33%)and moisture flux(33.14%).The amount of regional average precipitation is close to that of the precipitation caused by remote moisture transport,and both are considerably greater than the rainfall amount caused by local evaporation.However,on interannual time scales,precipitation recirculation rates are negatively correlated to regional average precipitation and precipitation caused by remote moisture transport but are consistent with that caused by local evaporation.An apparent"+-+"wave train can be found on the height anomaly field in East Asia,and the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive in the equatorial Middle-East Pacific,the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.These phenomena cause southwest-northeast moisture transport with strong updrafts,thereby resulting in more precipitation in the ESWC.

Contribution of external forcing to summer precipitation trends over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Southwest China

在过去的60年中,全球气候经历了快速变暖和短暂的变暖停滞,而中国的区域降水也经历了多样而复杂的变化.本文分析了1961年至2014年外强迫因子对青藏高原和中国西南地区夏季降水趋势的影响.观测数据显示,青藏高原的夏季降水呈增加趋势,而中国西南地区的夏季降水呈减少趋势,这两个相邻地区的夏季降水变化趋势相反.利用CMIP6数据,本文研究了不同外强迫因子对两个区域夏季降水趋势的影响.结果表明,温室气体对青藏高原夏季降水的增加具有显著影响,而气溶胶在中国西南地区夏季降水减少中起主要作用。

Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Relationship with Precipitation of China in Recent 111 Years

Based on the monthly average SLP data in the northern hemisphere from 1899 to 2009, East Asian summer monsoon intensity index in recent 111 years was calculated, and the interdecadal and interannual variation characteristics of East Asian summer monsoon were analyzed. The results showed that East Asian summer monsoon in the 1920s was the strongest. The intensity of East Asian summer monsoon after the middle period of the 1980s presented weakened trend. It was the weakest in the early 21st century. Morlet wavelet analysis found that the interdecadal and interannual variations of East Asian summer monsoon had quasi-10-year and quasi-2-year significance periods. The interannual variation of precipitation in the east of China closely related to intensity variation of East Asian summer monsoon. In strong （weak） East Asian summer monsoon year, the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River was less （more） than that in common year, while the rainfall in North China was more （less） than that in common year. The weakening of East Asian summer monsoon was an important reason for that it was rainless （drought） in North China and rainy （flood） in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River after the middle period of the 1980s.

Stable isotopes of summer monsoonal precipitation in southern China and the moisture sources evidence from δ^18O signature

Summer monsoons （South Asian monsoon, South China Sea monsoon and Subtropical monsoon） are prominent features of summertime climate over southern China. Dif- ferent monsoons carry different inflow moisture into China and control the temporal and spatial distributions of precipitation. Analyses of meteorological data, particularly wind, tempera- ture and pressure anomalies are traditional methods of characterizing moisture sources and transport patterns. Here, we try to utilize the evidence from stable isotopes signatures to trace summer monsoons over southern China. Based on seven CHNIP （Chinese Network of Iso- topes in Precipitation） observatory stations located in southern China, monthly composite precipitation samples have been collected and analyzed for the composition of δ^18O during July, 2005. The results indicated that the spatial distributions of δ^18O in precipitation could properly portray the moisture sources together with their transport pathways. Moreover, the amount effect, altitude effect, temperature effect and the correlation between δ^18O vs. relative humidity were discussed.

POSSIBLE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG SOUTH CHINA SEA SSTA, SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES IN SOUTHWEST CHINA AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA

By using 1958-2001 NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST) data, ERA40 reanalysis soil moisture data and precipitation data of 444 stations in China(east of 100°E), the possible relationships among South China Sea(SCS) SST anomaly(SSTA), soil moisture anomalies(SMA) and summer precipitation in eastern China as well as their possible physical processes are investigated. Results show that the SSTA of SCS bears an evidently negative correlation with spring soil moisture in the east part of Southwest China. More(less) precipitation happens in the Yangtze River basin and less(more) in the Southeast China in summer when the SSTA of SCS is higher(lower) than normal and the soil in the east part of Southwest China is dry(wet) in spring. Further analysis shows that when the SSTA of SCS is high(low), the southwesterly wind at low level is weak(strong), decreasing(increasing) the water vapor transport in South China, resulting in reduced(increased) spring precipitation in the east part of Southwest China and more(less) soil moisture in spring. Through the evaporation feedback mechanism, the dry(wet) soil makes the surface temperature higher(lower) in summer, causing the westward extension(eastward retreat) of the West Pacific Subtropical High, eventually leading to the summer precipitation anomalies.

An Experiment of a Statistical Downscaling Forecast Model for Summer Precipitation over China

A combination of the optimal subset regression (OSR) approach,the coupled general circulation model of the National Climate Center (NCC-CGCM) and precipitation observations from 160 stations over China is used to construct a statistical downscaling forecast model for precipitation in summer.Retroactive forecasts are performed to assess the skill of statistical downscaling during the period from 2003 to 2009.The results show a poor simulation for summer precipitation by the NCCCGCM for China,and the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is 0.01 in the forecast period.The forecast skill can be improved by OSR statistical downscaling,and the OSR forecast performs better than the NCC-CGCM in most years except 2003.The spatial ACC is more than 0.2 in the years 2008 and 2009,which proves to be relatively skillful.Moreover,the statistical downscaling forecast performs relatively well for the main rain belt of the summer precipitation in some years,including 2005,2006,2008,and 2009.However,the forecast skill of statistical downscaling is restricted to some extent by the relatively low skill of the NCCCGCM.

IMPACTS OF ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ON SUMMER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN CHINA

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and monthly precipitation over 160 conventional stations in China, analyses of moisture transport characteristics and corresponding precipitation variation in the east part of China in summer are made, and studies are carried out on possible influence on moisture transport and precipitation in summer by the variation of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). The results show that the abnormal variation of the AAO affected the summer precipitation in China significantly. The variation of AAO can cause the variation of intension and location of Northwestern Pacific High, which in turn cause the variation of summer monsoon rainfall in the eastern China.

Statistical Downscaling Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Southeastern China

A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed data.It was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern China between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42(above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm d-1.Regionally averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52 to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.27 to 0.22 for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.

THE TIMING OF SOUTH-ASIAN HIGH ESTABLISHMENT AND ITS RELATION TO TROPICAL ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION OVER EAST-CENTRAL CHINA IN SUMMER

The timing of the South Asian High(SAH) establishment over the Indochina Peninsula(IP) from April to May and its relations to the setup of the subsequent tropical Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over eastern-central China in summer are investigated by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data,outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)data and the daily precipitation data from 753 weather stations in China.It is found that the transitions of the zonal wind vertical shear and convection establishment over tropical Asia are earlier(later) in the years of early(late) establishment of SAH.In the lower troposphere,anti-cyclonic(cyclonic) anomaly circulation dominates the equatorial Indian Ocean.Correspondingly,the tropical Asian summer monsoon establishes earlier(later).Furthermore,the atmospheric circulation and the water vapor transport in the years of advanced SAH establishment are significantly different from the delayed years in Asia in summer.Out-of-phase distribution of precipitation in eastern-central China will appear with a weak(strong) SAH and western Pacific subtropical high,strong(weak) ascending motion in the area south of Yangtze River but weak(strong) ascending motion in the area north of it,and cyclonic(anti-cyclonic) water vapor flux anomaly circulation from the eastern-central China to western Pacific.Accordingly,the timing of the SAH establishment at the upper levels of IP is indicative of the subsequent onset of the tropical Asian summer monsoon and the flood-drought pattern over eastern-central China in summer.

On the Relationship between the Winter Eurasian Teleconnection Pattern and the Following Summer Precipitation over China

The Eurasian teleconnection pattern （EU） is an important low-frequency pattern with well-known impacts on climate anomalies in Eurasia. The difference of low-level v-winds in several regions in the Eurasian mid-high latitudes is defined as the EU index （EUIv）. In this study, the relationship between the winter EUIv and precipitation in the following summer over China is investigated. Results show that there is a significant positive （negative） correlation between the winter EUIv and the following summer precipitation over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）. Meanwhile, an interdecadal variability exists in the interannual relationship, and the correlation has become significantly enhanced since the early 1980s. Thus, the proposed EUIv may have implications for the prediction of summer precipitation anomalies over China. In positive winter EUIv years, three cyclonic circulation anomalies are observed--over the Ural Mountains, the Okhotsk Sea, and the subtropical western North Pacific. That is, the Ural blocking and Okhotsk blocking are inactive, zonal circulation prevails in the mid-high latitudes, and the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be weaker and locates to the north of its normal position in the following summer. This leads to above-normal moisture penetrating into the northern part of East China, and significant positive （negative） precipitation anomalies over North China （the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins）, and vice versa. Further examination shows that the SST anomalies over the Northwest Pacific and subtropical central North Pacific may both contribute to the formation of EUIv-related circulation anomalies over the western North Pacific.

Relation between sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic and summer precipitation over the Northeast China

Based on global monthly average data set of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1950 - 1992 and global monthly average 500 hPa height during 1930- 1997 offered by NCARINCEP, the feature of SST anomaly in the Atlantic and its relation with summer precipitation over the Northeast China are analyzed. The results show that, the second eigenvector of the SST’s empirical orthogonal expanssion in winter season over the North Atlantic suggests that dist-ibution of SST anomaly has unusual meridional difference; The location of its center is basically identical to center of significant correlation region be- tween summer precipitation over the Northeast China and winter SST in the Atlantic. When winter SST in the North Atlantic is hot in south and cold in north, the blocking situation is stronger in the middle- high latitude. Correspondingly, the blocking high pressure in the northern North Pacific is also getting stronger, the westerlies circulation index in East Asia in next summer would be lower,as a result,more precipitation in the summer would be experienced over Northeast China and vice versa.

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CHINA AND THE GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (SSTA) IN PRECEDING SEASONS

Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis global SST, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind monthly mean data and summer precipitation from 80 observation stations of Northeast China for the period 1961-2000, the summer precipitation field of Northeast China was decomposed by using the principal component analysis method, then the relationships between the first three precipitation leading modes and the global SSTA in preceding seasons were studied, and the responses of the 500-hPa atmospheric circulation in East Asia to the preceding winter SSTA in north Pacific and its influence on the summer precipitation in Northeast China were probed. The results show that the SSTA, especially the ENSO event in preceding seasons has really very important influence on the occurrence of the whole coincident precipitation episode in Northeast China, and relates to the precipitation episodes of the reverse variation in south-north and in west-east direction closely. The north Pacific SST anomalies in preceding winters are associated with the summer precipitation in Northeast China through its influence on the western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asia subtropical monsoon in summer. Therefore, taking the global SSTA distribution in preceding seasons, especially the ENSO event, as the precursor signal to predict the precipitation anomaly in Northeast China has good reliability and definite indicative significance.

INTERCOMPARISON OF THE INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA SIMULATED BY AOGCMS FROM THE IPCC-DDC

Simulations of the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall over China are assessed from 5 coupled AOGCMs from the Data Distribution Center (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC) under the IPCC-Special Report in Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenario. We examined their ability in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over China from 1951 to 1990. The difference before and after the mid-1960’s and the late 1970’s is given respectively to check the capability of the models, especially in reproducing the rainfall jump in North China. We also investigated the interdecadal variations simulated by the models in the 1990’s and the average of 2001-2020 in the future under the scenario A2 and B2. The analysis shows that the current AOGCMs is not good enough in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in China. The interdecadal variations of summer rainfall simulated by most of the models cannot reproduce the observation in North China. Higher resolution models are suggested to well simulate the interdecadal variability in regional scale.

EFFECTS OF PACIFIC SSTA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA, PART II: NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

Based on an observational analysis, seven numerical experiments are designed to study the impacts of Pacific SSTA on summer precipitation over eastern China and relevant physical mechanism by NCAR CCM3. The numerical simulation results show that preceding winter SSTA in the Kuroshio region leads to summer precipitation anomaly over the Yangtze River valleys by modifying atmospheric general circulation over eastern Asia and middle-high latitude. West Pacific subtropical high is notably affected by preceding spring SSTA over the middle and east of Equator Pacific; SSTA of the central region of middle latitude in the corresponding period causes the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China so as to trigger the atmospheric Eurasia-Pacific teleconnection pattern.

EFFECTS OF PACIFIC SSTA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA, PART I: OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

With the methods of REOF （Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function）, the summer precipitation from 43 stations over eastern China for the 1901 - 2000 period was examined. The results show that South China and Southwest China, the middle and lower reaches of Changiiang River, North China and the southwestern of Northeast China are the three main areas of summer rainfall anomaly. Furthermore, correlation analysis is used in three time series of three mostly summer rainfall modes and four seasonal Pacific SSTA （Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly）, and the results suggest that the Pacific SSTA which notably causes the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China are the SSTA of the preceding winter over Kuroshio region of Northwest Pacific, SSTA of the preceding spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and SSTA of the current summer in the central region of middle latitude. The relationship between summer precipitation over eastern China and SSTA of Pacific key regions was further verified by SVD （Singular Value Decomposition） analysis. The composite analysis was used to analyze the features of atmospheric general circulation in the years of positive and negative precipitation anomaly. Its results were used to serve as the base of numerical simulation analysis.

Relationship between Reduction of Summer Precipitation in North China and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

Based on Reanalysis datasets from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and summer rainfall datasets from China National Climate Center (NCC), by using trend analysis and composite analysis methods, the relationship between the reduction of summer precipitation in North China and northern hemispheric circulation changes was investigated. The results show that summer rainfall in North China had a significant decreasing tendency, especially true since 1965 in which an abrupt change occurred. The northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation at 500 hPa had a remarkable change after 1965, from outstanding meridional circulation to outstanding zonal circulation, leading to upper trough activity to decrease, resulting in the rainfall weather processes caused by upward motion behind trough significantly to reduce. At 500 hPa in Mongolian region, air temperature decreased, resulting in lower troposphere pressure to increase, leading to low pressure activity significantly to decrease and rainfall weather processes influencing North China to reduce. At the same time, the decreased air temperature in 500 hPa would caused the upper troposphere geopotential height to reduce, resulting in high–altitude jet southerly location, the East Asian summer monsoon to weaken, then it was difficult for water vapor transport to cross the Yangtze River valley and reach the North China region, with a southerly summer monsoon rainfall zone. The summer precipitation reduction in North China had a good correlation with the northern hemispheric circulation changes.