Infl uence of environmental regulation intensity on regional technology innovation: An empirical research based on eastern and mid-China region

This paper adopts the comprehensive index method to build environmental regulation intensity index. Based on "Porter Hypothesis", it empirically examines the relationship between environmental regulation intensity and regional technology innovation using the eastern and mid-China region's provincial panel data from 2005 to 2013 and panel data method. The results show that:(1) In the eastern and central regions, the relationship between the intensity of environmental regulation and technological innovation presents a "U" shape, and "Porter Hypothesis" can be verifi ed;(2) The eastern region can break "U" infl ection point earlier than the central region. Therefore, the government should not only strengthen the intensity of environmental regulation, but also pay attention to environmental regulation form, formulate reasonable environmental regulation policy, actively guide the enterprises to seek out technology innovation in order to realize win-win situation of environmental protection and economic development.

The mapping methods and division of tectonic units of the regional tectonic map in the eastern China seas and adjacent regions

The geological-geophysical map series of the eastern China seas and adjacent region （1：1 000 000） will be published in the late half year of 2009. The regional tectonic map is one of the main professional maps. The Mapping methods, the division method of geological tectonic units and the main geological tectonic units are mainly discussed. The strata from Pliocene to Holocene are peeled off so as to display the Pre-Pliocene structures. In basins, isopaches are drawn for the Cenozoic deposits. The plate tectonic theory and present tectonic pattern are adopted as the priorities in tectonic division. As to the division of intraplate tectonic units, it is a revision, complement and improvement of previous dividing systems, and the nomenclature for each tectonic unit follows the current system in China. The first-order tectonic unit is plate （Pacific Plate, Eurasian Plate and Philippine Sea Plate）. The second-order tectonic unit is tectonic domain （East Asian continental tectonic domain,East Asian continental margin tectonic domain and west Pacific tectonic domain）. The Philippine Sea Plate and the west part of the Pacific Plate are called the West Pacific tectonic domain. The part of the Eurasian Plate involved in this study area can be further divided into East Asian continental tectonic domain and East Asian continental margin tectonic domain. The East Asian continental margin domain is composed of the Ryukyu island arc, the Okinawa Trough back-arc basin and the back-arc basin of Sea of Japan. The East Asian continental tectonic domain in this study area is composed of the Sino-Korea Massif, the Changjiang River （Yangtze） Massif and South China Massif. In turn, these massifs consist of basins, folded belts or uplift zones. The basins,the folded belts or the uplift zones are further divided into uplifts and depressions made up of sags and swells.

Effects of Tropical Cyclone Activity on the Boundary Moisture Budget over the Eastern China Monsoon Region

In summer, water vapor over the eastern China monsoon region （ECMR） comes mainly from low latitudes and is modu- lated by tropical cyclone （TC） activity in East Asia （EA）. This study examines the variability of water vapor transport over the ECMR, especially of the moisture inflow via the southern and eastern boundaries. The results of composite and correlation analyses, using data from 1979 to 2010, reveal significant differences in moisture budgets along the boundaries between TC days and non-TC days. Almost 80% of the water vapor transport via the eastern boundary occurs during TC days, while at the southern boundary most inflow occurs on non-TC days. The ratio of the total water vapor transport between TC and non-TC days is about 4：6. In addition, the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） exhibits a remarkable influence on moisture trans- port over EA and the contributions of moisture inflow on TC days increase （reduce） in E1 Nifio （La Nifia） years. Moreover, different types of TCs, based on their tracks, have different effects on the moisture budgets along the southern and eastern boundaries. When TCs enter EA （but not the ECMR）, they favor the moisture inflow via the eastern boundary and hinder the moisture inflow via the southern boundary. After TCs enter the ECMR, the inhibition of moisture inflow via the southern boundary will be weakened, and more water vapor can be brought into the ECMR. For some recurring TCs with an increase in TC activity in the midlatitudes, the influence is uncertain in different cases. The results herein suggest that TC activity is an important factor that influences the boundary moisture budgets in the ECMR.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Observed Sub-Daily Rainfall Maxima over Eastern China

Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima （AM） sub-daily rainfall series （1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach） for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions： Northeast （NE1, NE2）, Central （C）, Central North （CN1, CN2）, Central East （CE1, CE2, CE3）, Southeast （SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4）, and Southwest （SW）. The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） and 108-390 mm （1-h to 24-h rainfall） for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm （- 10%-10%） for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm （-10%-30%） and -10-133 mm （-10%-90%） for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

Eurasia Continental Bridge——An Important Link of the Coordinated Development between China's Eastern,Central and Western Regions

The new Eurasia Continental Bridgeruns from East China to Central andWest China, crossing 11 provincesand regions, namely Jiangsu, Shandong,Hubei, Anhui, Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi,Sichuan, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Ningxia.The total area is 3.6 million sq km and thepopulation is about 300 million, accountingfor a third and a quarter of the whole countryrespectively. The area is very rich in naturalresources, so it is called an "Economic goldbelt" and "Gold corridor". Aerial remote-control survey indicates that along thecontinental bridge from Lianyungang to theAla Mountains within China’s boundary,

Impacts of Future NO_x and CO Emissions on Regional Chemistry and Climate over Eastern China

A coupled chemical/dynamical model （SOCOL-SOlar Climate Ozone Links） is applied to study the impacts of future enhanced CO and NO_x emissions over eastern China on regional chemistry and climate. The result shows that the increase of CO and NOx emissions has significant effects on regional chemistry, including NOx, CO, O_3, and OH concentrations. During winter, the CO concentration is uniformly increased in the northern hemisphere by about 10 ppbv. During summer, the increase of CO has a regional distribution. The change in O_3 concentrations near eastern China has both strong seasonal and spatial variations. During winter, the surface O_3 concentrations decrease by about 2 ppbv, while during summer they increase by about 2 ppbv in eastern China. The changes of CO, NO_x, and O_3 induce important impacts on OH concentrations. The changes in chemistry, especially O_3, induce important effects on regional climate. The analysis suggests that during winter, the surface temperature decreases and air pressure increases in central-eastern China. The changes of temperature and pressure produce decreases in vertical velocity. We should mention that the model resolution is coarse, and the calculated concentrations are generally underestimated when they are compared to measured results. However, because this model is a coupled dynamical/chemical model, it can provide some useful insights regarding the climate impacts due to changes in air pollutant emissions.

Simulation and Projection of Monso on Rainfall and Rain Patterns over Eastern China under Global Warming by RegCM3

The authors investigate possible changes of monsoon rainfall and associated seasonal (June-JulyAugust) anomaly patterns over eastern China in the late 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario as simulated by a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) nested in a general circulation model (FvGCM/CCM3).Two sets of multi-decadal simulations are performed at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate conditions.Results show that the RegCM3 reproduces the mean rainfall distribution;however the evolution of the monsoon rain belt from South China to North China is not well simulated.Concerning the rain pattern classifications,RegCM3 overestimates the occurrence of Pattern 1 (excessive rainfall in northern China) and underestimates that of Pattern 2 (increased rainfall over the Huai River basin).Under future climate conditions,RegCM3 projects less occurrence of Pattern 1,more of Pattern 2,and little change of Pattern 3 (rainfall increase along the Yangtze River).These results indicate that there might be increased rainfall over the Huai-Yellow River area and reduced rainfall over North China in the future,while rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin is not modified significantly.Uncertainties exist in the present study are also discussed.

基于野外观测实验的中国东部湿润区降雨入渗模拟分析——以宁波画龙溪流域为例

本文以中国东部湿润区典型小流域浙江宁波画龙溪为例,将野外原位定点观测与模型模拟分析相结合,建立了HYDRUS-1D土壤水模拟模型,选取2016年9月29日、2016年10月7日典型降雨事件分别对模型进行率定和验证,并对2016―2020年不同降雨强度下不同土地利用类型的场次土壤水分入渗开展了观测与模拟,以揭示中国东部湿润区不同土地利用类型下的降雨-入渗规律。结果表明:(1)从土壤水分变化过程模拟来看,HYDRUS-1D模型模拟土壤水分动态变化特征具有较高的精度,90%模拟结果的纳什效率系数达到0.80以上。(2)在同等降雨强度下,4种土地利用类型土壤下渗量从大到小依次为农田、杨梅林、坡耕地、竹林。下渗率受降雨量及降雨强度影响较大,不同土地利用下土壤下渗量随着降雨强度增强而显著增加。(3)土壤下渗量同时也受到降雨历时与前期降雨情况深刻影响。当降雨强度从小雨逐级增加到大暴雨,各土地利用类型下渗量略微增加,但增加量均小于5%。对于历时短、强度高的极端降雨事件,降雨强度超过了下渗强度,形成超渗产流,将出现降雨量大但下渗量反而小的现象。本研究成果可为中国东部湿润区农业生产、三水转化规律等提供理论参考。

中国-中东欧国家合作机制2012—2022年区域国别研究回顾与建议

中国-中东欧国家合作机制自2012年建立以来,至2022年已走过10年的发展历程。本文旨在回顾和分析这一时期中国学者围绕中东欧国家所进行的研究,以期为未来的研究提供参考和借鉴。本文采用文献综述法,系统梳理了2012—2022年我国中东欧研究机构与学者、研究成果的产出及学科分布特征等情况。研究发现,中东欧国别与区域研究在数量和质量上均有显著提升,但仍存在一些问题,如通晓该地区的专门人才缺乏,研究方法单一,学科交叉不足等。本研究为中国-中东欧合作提供战略层面的参考,也为中东欧国别区域视域下的学术发展提供参考。

双碳背景下中国海油三个万亿大气区勘探战略思考

天然气具有清洁低碳等优势,在实现中国碳达峰、碳中和目标过程中将发挥重要作用。中国海油为响应国内不断加大天然气勘探开发力度的号召,提出了三个万亿大气区战略布局,即:南海万亿大气区、渤海万亿大气区和陆上鄂东-沁水万亿大气区,这三个万亿大气区是中国海油国内天然气增储上产的主要区域。本文聚焦资源基础、勘探方向、勘探理论认识与技术攻关方向,明确了中国海油建设三个万亿大气区的时间表和路线图。研究认为:①中国海油在南海北部、渤海海域和陆上探区具备实现三个万亿大气区的现实储量基础和资源潜力;②深水深层、深水超浅层、浅水深层和陆上深煤层,是未来中国海油开展天然气勘探的重要方向;③深部优质储层分布规律和深部油气富集机理等理论认识,深部储层改造、深部地震成像等关键技术,是未来需要重点攻关的理论技术方向。

中国东部季风区植被气候生产潜力的时空特征

以中国东部季风区为研究区域、植被气候生产潜力为研究对象,以英国东英格利亚大学气候研究所公布的气候变化数据库(CRU TS v.4.06)中0.5°×0.5°月尺度时空分辨率的降水和气温数据集的气象数据(时间尺度为1981—2021年)、中山大学陆-气相互作用研究组2013年开发的中国陆地表面土壤数据库的土壤数据为数据源,采用迈阿密模型(Miami)、桑斯威特纪念模型(Thomthwaite Memorial)分析1981—2021年中国东部季风区植被气候生产潜力的时空特征,采用冗余分析(RDA)法分析植被气候生产潜力与土壤理化性质相关性。结果表明:过去40a,中国东部季风区气温生产潜力、降水生产潜力、蒸散生产潜力的时间演变,均分为2个阶段,气温生产潜力的第Ⅰ阶段为1981—2001年、第Ⅱ阶段为2002—2021年,降水生产潜力的第Ⅰ阶段为1981—2014年、第Ⅱ阶段为2014—2021年,蒸散生产潜力的第Ⅰ阶段为1981—2013年、第Ⅱ阶段为2013—2021年,2个阶段均呈现出生产潜力增加趋势,其中第Ⅱ阶段生产潜力增加幅度显著高于第Ⅰ阶段。气温生产潜力、降水生产潜力和蒸散生产潜力均存在1个22 a的显著周期转变,敏感性分析显示气温和降水均对蒸散生产潜力有显著正相关影响。在空间上,气温生产潜力、降水生产潜力、蒸散生产潜力,都呈现出从华南地区往东北地区递减的趋势,且第Ⅱ阶段植被气候生产潜力的增速显著高于第Ⅰ阶段,第Ⅱ阶段增速显著的区域多出现在高值区。冗余分析结果显示,东部季风区土壤表层理化性质对降水生产潜力、蒸散生产潜力有显著抑制作用,对气温生产潜力有显著的促进作用。

俄罗斯远东联邦区人口要素演化特征及其对中俄区域经济合作的启示

人口总量、人口结构和人口空间分布等问题是俄罗斯远东联邦区深度融入亚太经济圈所面临的核心挑战之一,同时也是优化与平衡东西部产业布局上难以逾越的鸿沟。自“向东看”到“战略东转”政策正式实施以来,尽管多项关于人口与区域经济协同发展的联邦法案和规划等被正式批准和生效,但仍无力从根本上解决俄罗斯远东联邦区多数联邦主体(省域)人口问题,成为推动中俄区域经济高质量合作与发展落到实处的最大障碍,需要采取针对性措施清除人口障碍。其中,筑牢区域人口安全防线、强化政策精准落地落实和推进多领域、多层次、多维度地深度融合是中俄区域经济高质量协同发展的重要内涵。

“霍山窗”地区现代构造应力场研究

应用Snoke于2009年提出的利用P、SV和SH波的初动和振幅比联合计算震源机制解的方法,得到"霍山窗"地区1980年以来62次中小地震的震源机制解。基于大量的震源机制解资料,根据应力张量平均法反演得到"霍山窗"地区的平均构造应力场;结果表明,其与震源机制参数统计结果一致,表现为近EW向的水平挤压和近NS向的水平拉张作用。计算单个震源机制解力轴与平均应力场主应力轴的差异,即震源机制的一致性参数θ,进而分析θ随时间变化特征及其与华东地区中强震的关系;结果表明,"霍山窗"地区震源机制的一致性参数θ对华东地区相应中强震似有一定的指示意义。

气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价

将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明,2000年气候条件下,我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%,极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险,不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大,极端脆弱区域将达到20%-25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加,中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化,而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。

510年来中国东中部地区气候干湿变化研究

选择上海、武汉、天津和西安为典型区,以1470—1979年逐年干湿等级序列为基本数据源,应用墨西哥帽小波变换方法,对中国东中部地区近510a来不同时间尺度下的气候干湿变化与气候突变特征进行分析,并探讨气候干湿变化的动因。结果显示:19世纪以前气候干湿变化表现出较明显的东西差异;小冰期事件、18世纪气候温和期等非局地性事件在较大区域都有反应,但各地的具体响应程度、方式和时间均有差异;在20世纪气候变暖的大背景下,各地气候均向偏干旱方向演变。百年以上尺度气候干湿变化的原因主要是太阳辐射及其引起的大气环流变化,百年以下尺度的变化则与季风系统短尺度波动、区内各个大气环流系统的相互作用、局地下垫面差异和人类活动等复杂因素的影响有关。

华东地区区域自主创新能力的评价研究——基于灰色聚类分析和全局主成分分析

区域自主创新能力是提高区域竞争力、加快转变经济发展方式和解决社会发展难题的关键因素。华东地区自主创新能力强,但内部差异大。文章通过选择自主创新投入等15个指标构成的区域创新能力评价指标体系,以2013年华东地区(7个省市)数据为样本,运用灰色聚类和全局主成分分析的方法对相关数据进行了分析。评价结果表明:江苏、上海和浙江3个省市的区域自主创新能力最强;福建、江西省的自主创新能力最弱。最后提出了针对华东地区7个省份区域创新能力的政策建议。

SRES A2情景下未来30年我国东部夏季降水变化趋势

采用与全球海气耦合模式(NCC/IAPT63)嵌套的区域气候模式(RegCM2_NCC),对东亚区域进行了30年的气候积分(1961—1990年),作为控制试验的气候背景场,在此基础上,在IPCC第三次评估报告SRES排放情景A2下对我国未来30年(2001—2030年)的气候变化趋势进行了预估,重点分析了我国东部季风区夏季降水的变化趋势及区域特征。结果显示:未来30年夏季平均降水量在北部地区呈现增加的趋势,以降水量距平代表的夏季主要雨带转到长江以北地区,且北方地区降水量增加主要以对流性降水量增加为主,长江以南地区降水量有所减少,特别是华南地区降水量减少较为明显,据此预测结果,未来30年华北地区夏季干旱可能有所缓解。未来30年夏季低层空气湿度也将发生明显变化,主要表现为中高纬度地区湿度增大,较低纬度地区湿度减小,东亚夏季风有所增强,特别是西南气流明显加强,有利于暖湿空气向北方地区输送。由于预估结果的可信度取决于全球模式和区域模式的模拟性能以及温室气体排放浓度的准确性,因此还需要更多的试验及进一步的综合比较,以减少未来气候变化趋势预估的不确定性。

华东地区前兆场时空演化特征的模糊识别

利用模糊数学中异常从属函数方法对 1 990～ 1 997年华东地区 1 6种前兆观测方法 ,近 5万组观测数据的综合前兆场进行了时空演化特征研究。结果表明 ,异常从属函数 μ对发生在华东地区的 Ms≥ 5.0地震有较好的映震能力 ,可作为中期、中短期预报的综合指标 。

1000kV皖南——浙北特高压线路工频参数测试干扰及结果分析

特高压线路工频参数测试干扰分析是选择适合工频参数测试方法及测试结果分析的重要基础。测试了1 000 k V皖南—浙北特高压线路正序和零序参数测试期间的干扰电压信号,分析了其频谱特征;在此基础上,通过与正序参数仿真计算值的对比分析了正序参数实际测试偏差。结果表明:皖南—浙北特高压同塔双回线路工频参数测试期间,干扰电压存在"三相不平衡性及时变性"的特点;工频法和异频法2种不同方法得到的线路参数测试结果存在一定差异;干扰电压"时变"时,线路工频参数测试宜采用异频法。

中国干旱区与季风区夏季气温变化特征对比

利用1961-2006年西北干旱区139站和东部季风区378站夏季平均气温资料,采用趋势系数、相关性检验等方法,对比分析了两个区域夏季气温的时间和空间变化特征、气温变幅分布,并对产生变化的原因进行了初步探讨。结果表明:受气候变暖大背景的影响,西北干旱区和东部季风区夏季气温变化均为波动式上升趋势,但由于地理位置的差异,受夏季风影响不同,导致西北干旱区(0.24℃/10 a)的升温趋明显高于季风区(0.11℃/10 a),同时明显高于相同纬度区域的季风区(0.15℃/10 a)气温变化趋势。两个区域气温变幅空间变化分布上都存在明显的升温区域和气温变化相对较弱的区域,季风区在黄河中下游以南地区到长江中下游以北的广大地区变化不明显,黄河中下游以北的华北、东北地区有相对较明显的升温趋势;西北干旱区以明显的升温为主,尤其是以青海西部至蒙古高原西部形成的一带状区域为主要明显升温区,其最大升温率达到0.93℃/10 a,变化相对较弱的区域主要位于吐鲁番盆地和塔里木盆地。