Influence on Northern Pacific Storm Track of the Okhotsk Sea Ice during Winter

Based on Arctic sea ice concentration data and NCEP／NCAR reanalysis data, relationship between sea ice anomaly over the sea of Okhotsk and its vicinage and northern Pacific storm track during winter is discussed by statistic analysis methods. It is found that with northern Pacific SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over southwest of the sea of Okhotsk can except crucial influence on the variation in vigor and extension （contraction） from northwest to southeast of nor{hem Pacific storm track. But with tl^e influence of SSTA, sea ice area anomaly over northeast of the sea of Okhotsk and the gulf of SheUkhow works mainly on the strength and the south-north movement of the storm track.

Sand-dust storms in China: temporal-spatial distribution and tracks of source lands

Sand-dust storm is a special natural disaster that frequently occurs in deserts and their surrounding areas. With the data published onSurface Meteorological Monthly Bulletin andSurface Chart during 1971–1996, the temporal-spatial distribution and annual variation of sand-dust storms are analyzed on the basis of the case study of atmospheric processes. Furthermore, the tracks and source areas of sand-dust storms are determined with the aid of GIS. The results show that except some parts of Qinghai Province and Inner Mongolia as well as Beijing, sand-dust storms decrease apparently in time and space in recent decades in China. Sand-dust storms occur most frequently in spring, especially in April. According to their source areas, sand-dust storms are classified into two types, i.e., the inner-source and outer-source sand-dust storms. Most of the outer-source sand-dust storms move along the north and west tracks. The north-track outer-source sand-dust storms always intrude into China across the Sino-Mongolian border from Hami, a city in the eastern part ofXinjiang, to Xilin Gol, a league in Inner Mongolia, while the west-track ones intrude into China from both southern and northern Xinjiang. The source lands of inner-source sand-dust storms concentrate in the Taklimakan Desert and its surrounding areas in southern Xinjiang, southern part of the Junggar Basin in north of Xinjiang, the Hexi Corridor in western Gansu Province, the dry deserts of Inner Mongolia and the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai.

The Impact of Pacific SSTA on the Interannual Variability of Northern Pacific Storm Track during Winter

Investigation is conducted of the interannual variability of the northern Pacific storm track and its concurrent association with 500 hPa height and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during winter. Evidence suggests that during the studying period the center of the northern winter Pacific storm track experiences substantial interannual variability in the variation of its latitude, longitude and intensity. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of 15 winter 500 hPa filtered geopotential height variance over the storm track with the tropical and northern Pacific SST shows that the first coupled mode depicts the effect on the track of SSTA over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, while the second one reflects the impact of Kuroshio SSTA on the track. Further Composite analysis indicates, moreover, that the SSTA over Kuroshio (equatorial central and eastern Pacific) during winter, which is relative to WP (PNA) teleconnection response pattern in 500 hPa height field, respectively, exerts crucial influence on the interannual variability in vigor and meridianal (zonal) displacement of the track over its central and western (eastern) part.

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms(TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A(21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs(taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast(west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B(74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring,with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs(accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay(85° to 95°E), and19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C(36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction,and 23 of the 36 TSs(64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.

Synchronization of Radar Observations with Multi-Scale Storm Tracking

The 3-D radar reflectivity data has become increasingly important for use in data assimilation towards convective scale numerical weather prediction as well as next generation precipitation estimation. Typically, reflectivity data from multiple radars are objectively analyzed and mosaiced onto a regional 3-D Cartesian grid prior to being assimilated into the models. One multi-radar observations is the synchronization of all of the scientific issues associated with the mosaic of the observations. Since radar data is usually rapidly updated （-every 5-10 min）, it is common in current multi-radar mosaic techniques to combine multiple radar＇ observations within a time window by assunfing that the storms are steady within the window. The assumption holds well for slow evolving precipitation systems, but for fast evolving convective storms, this assumption may be violated and the mosaic of radar observations at different times may result in inaccurate storm structure depictions. This study investigates the impact of synchronization on storm structures in multiple radar data analyses using a multi-scale storm tracking algorithm.

Impacts of Increased SST Resolution on the North Pacific Storm Track in ERA-Interim

This study examines the artificial influence of increasing the SST resolution on the storm track over the North Pacific in ERA-Interim.Along with the mesoscale oceanic eddies and fronts resolved during the high-resolution-SST period,the low-level storm track strengthens northward,reaching more than 30%of the maximum values in the low-resolution-SST period after removing the influence of ENSO.The mesoscale structure firstly imprints on the marine atmospheric boundary layer,which then leads to changes in turbulent heat flux and near-surface convergence,forcing a secondary circulation into the free atmosphere,strengthening the vertical eddy heat,momentum and specific humidity fluxes,and contributing to the enhancement of the storm track.Results from a high-resolution atmospheric model further indicate the changes in the storm track due to the mesoscale SST and their relationship.

Influence of ENSO Event on the Maintenance of Pacific Storm Track in the Northern Winter

An influence of ENSO event on the maintenance of Pacific storm track in the Northern winter is studied based on the NCEP/ NCAR daily re-analysis data. The result shows that in El Ni?o (La Ni?a) year an increase (decrease) of baroclinicity over the storm track, extension (withdrawal) eastward and southward (westward but northward for its east end) of its position and augmentation (debilitation) of its strength are closely in response to the enhancement (abatement) of eddy heat flux and momentum flux that are associated with the development of the storm track. It thus indicates that ENSO event exerts an important impact on its maintenance and development in the Pacific Ocean.

Two Modes and Their Seasonal and Interannual Variation of the Baroclinic Waves/Storm Tracks over the Wintertime North Pacific

In this study,a newly developed method,termed moving empirical orthogonal function analysis（MEOF）,is applied to the study of midlatitude baroclinic waves over the wintertime North Pacific from 1979 to 2009.It is shown that when the daily,high-pass filtered（2–10 days） meridional wind at 250 h Pa is chosen as the variable of the MEOF analysis,typical features of baroclinic waves/storm tracks over the wintertime North Pacific can be well described by this method.It is found that the first two leading modes of the MEOF analysis,MEOF1 and MEOF2,assume quite different patterns.MEOF1 takes the form of a single wave train running in the east–west direction along 40°N,while MEOF2 is a double wave train pattern running in the east–west direction along 50°N and 30°N,respectively.The shift composites of various anomalous fields based on MEOF1 and MEOF2 assume typical baroclinic wave features.MEOF1 represents a primary storm track pulsing with an intrinsic time scale of two days.It shows significant ＂midwinter suppression＂ and apparent interannual variability.It is stronger after the mid-1990 s than before the mid-1990 s.MEOF2 represents a double-branch storm track,also with an intrinsic time scale of approximately two days,running along 50°N and 30°N,respectively.It shows no apparent seasonal variation,but its interannual and decadal variation is quite clear.It oscillates with larger amplitude and longer periods after the mid-1990 s than before the mid-1990 s,and is heavily modulated by El Ni n°o–Southern Oscillation（ENSO）.

Interannual and Decadal Variability of the North Pacific Blocking and Its Relationship to SST, Teleconnection and Storm Tracks

Climalological features of mid-latitude blocking occurring over the North Pacific Ocean during 52 winters (December to February) of 1948/1949-1999/2000 are statistically analyzed based on NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. Significant interannual variation with a period of about 3-7 years as well as decadal variability is found by wavelet analysis and power spectrum analysis. A decreasing trend of the 2-7 year bandscale-averaged variance occurs throughout the 52 years and an abrupt shift from a higher state to a lower state during the 1970s is also found, which suggests an interdecadal variation of the North Pacific blocking. The possible relationship between the variability of blocking and sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracks and teleconnection are shown using composite analysis. In strong blocking anomaly winter (SBW), the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa exhibits a typical PNA (Pacific-North American)-like wave-train pattern in the North Pacific. The storm tracks, representing the activity of transient eddies, extend northeastward to the western coast of North America along the mid latitudes of about 40°-50°N, with the SST anomaly exhibiting a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode at mid-latitude and a La Niña-like pattern along the equator. Contrasting features appear in weak blocking anomaly winter (WBW).

Impacts of Oceanic Fronts and Eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension Region on the Atmospheric General Circulation and Storm Track

This paper reviews the progress in our understanding of the atmospheric response to midlatitude oceanic fronts and eddies,emphasizing the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension(KOE)region.Oceanic perturbations of interest consist of sharp oceanic fronts,temperature anomalies associated with mesoscale eddies,and to some extent even higher-frequency submesoscale variability.The focus is on the free atmosphere above the boundary layer.As the midlatitude atmosphere is dominated by vigorous transient eddy activity in the storm track,the response of both the time-mean flow and the storm track is assessed.The storm track response arguably overwhelms the mean-flow response and makes the latter hard to detect from observations.Oceanic frontal impacts on the mesoscale structures of individual synoptic storms are discussed,followed by the role of oceanic fronts in maintaining the storm track as a whole.KOE fronts exhibit significant decadal variability and can therefore presumably modulate the storm track.Relevant studies are summarized and intercompared.Current understanding has advanced greatly but is still subject to large uncertainties arising from inadequate data resolution and other factors.Recent modeling studies highlighted the importance of mesoscale eddies and probably even submesoscale processes in maintaining the storm track but confirmation and validation are still needed.Moreover,the atmospheric response can potentially provide a feedback mechanism for the North Pacific climate.By reviewing the above aspects,we envision that future research shall focus more upon the interaction between smaller-scale oceanic processes(fronts,eddies,submesoscale features)and atmospheric processes(fronts,extratropical cyclones etc.),in an integrated way,within the context of different climate background states.

Mean Flow–Storm Track Relationship and Rossby Wave Breaking in Two Types of El-Nino

The features of large-scale circulation, storm tracks and the dynamical relationship between them were examined by investigating Rossby wave breaking （RWB） processes associated with Eastern Pacific （EP） and Central Pacific （CP） E1-Nifio. During EP E1-Nino, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa （Z500） exhibits a Pacific-North America （PNA） pattern. During CP EI-Nifio, the Z500 anomaly shows a north positive-south negative pattern over the North Pacific. The anomalous distributions of baroclinicity and storm track are consistent with those of upper-level zonal wind for both EP and CP EI-Nino, suggesting impacts of mean flow on storm track variability. Anticyclonic wave breaking （AWB） oczurs less frequently in EP EI-Nino years, while cyclonic wave breaking （CWB） occurs more frequently in CP EI-Nino years over the North Pacific sector. Outside the North Pacific, more CWB events occur over North America during EP Ei-NiNo. When AWB events occur less frequently over the North Pacific during EP EI-Nino, Z500 decreases locally and the zonal wind is strengthened （weakened） to the south （north）. This is because AWB events reflect a monopoie high anomaly at the centroid of breaking events. When CWB events occur more frequently over the North Pacific under CP EI-Nino conditions, and over North America under EP EI-Nino condition, Z500 increases （decreases） to the northeast （southwest）, since CWB events are related to a northeast-southwest dipole Z500 anomaly. The anomalous RWB events act to invigorate and reinforce the circulation anomalies over the North Pacific-North America region linked with the two types of EI-Nino.

SAMPLE OPTIMIZATION OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST TO SIMULATE TROPICAL STORMS(MERBOK, MAWAR, AND GUCHOL) USING THE OBSERVED TRACK

Nowadays,ensemble forecasting is popular in numerical weather prediction(NWP).However,an ensemble may not produce a perfect Gaussian probability distribution due to limited members and the fact that some members significantly deviate from the true atmospheric state.Therefore,event samples with small probabilities may downgrade the accuracy of an ensemble forecast.In this study,the evolution of tropical storms(weak typhoon)was investigated and an observed tropical storm track was used to limit the probability distribution of samples.The ensemble forecast method used pure observation data instead of assimilated data.In addition,the prediction results for three tropical storm systems,Merbok,Mawar,and Guchol,showed that track and intensity errors could be reduced through sample optimization.In the research,the vertical structures of these tropical storms were compared,and the existence of different thermal structures was discovered.One possible reason for structural differences is sample optimization,and it may affect storm intensity and track.

Impact of Kuroshio Extension dipole mode variability on the North Pacific storm track

An index of a large-scale Kuroshio Extension（KE） sea surface height dipole（KED） mode is constructed using satellite altimeter sea level anomaly observations from January 1993 to December 2015 based on previous work of the second author. It is found that the KED mode that undergoes a decadal variation from a negative phase（a positive-over-negative dipole, KED.） to a positive phase（a negative-over-positive dipole, KED＋） can affect the variability of the oceanic SST front and the North Pacific storm track. The results show that the oceanic SST fronts in the north of the KE region and in the KE region — referred to as the NSST and KSST fronts, respectively — are closely correlated with the KED mode. In the NSST front region, the SST front is stronger for KED. than for KED＋, and the opposite is the case in the KSST region. It is further revealed that the decadal phase transition of the KED mode can change the location and strength of the North Pacific storm track, with the North Pacific storm track being slightly weaker and moving more northwards as a whole during the KED. mode than during the KED＋ mode. The westerly wind associated with the storm track on the downstream side of the KE region intensifies and shifts northwards under KED. compared to KED＋.Furthermore, the transition of the KED mode gives rise to changes in the North Pacific storm track by changing the NSST and KSST fronts and meridional heat flux.

Response of the North Pacific Storm Track Activity in the Cold Season to Multi-scale Oceanic Variations of Kuroshio Extension System: A Statistical Assessment

In this paper,a statistical method called Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Analysis(GEFA)is used to investigate the responses of the North Pacific Storm Track(NPST)in the cold season to the multi-scale oceanic variations of the Kuroshio Extension(KE)system,including its large-scale variation,oceanic front meridional shift,and mesoscale eddy activity.Results show that in the cold season from the lower to the upper troposphere,the KE large-scale variation significantly weakens the storm track activity over the central North Pacific south of 30°N.The northward shift of the KE front significantly strengthens the storm track activity over the western and central North Pacific south of 40°N,resulting in a southward shift of the NPST.In contrast,the NPST response to KE mesoscale eddy activity is not so significant and relatively shallow,which only shows some significant positive signals near the dateline in the lower and middle troposphere.Furthermore,it is found that baroclinicity and baroclinic energy conversion play an important role in the formation of the NPST response to the KE multi-scale oceanic variations.

EXPERIMENTS TO TRACK STORMS USING MODERN OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS

Storm identification and tracking based on weather radar data are essential to nowcasting and severe weather warning. A new two-dimensional storm identification method simultaneously seeking in two directions is proposed, and identification results are used to discuss storm tracking algorithms. Three modern optimization algorithms （simulated annealing algorithm, genetic algorithm and ant colony algorithm） are tested to match storms in successive time intervals. Preliminary results indicate that the simulated annealing algorithm and ant colony algorithm are effective and have intuitionally adjustable parameters, whereas the genetic algorithm is unsatisfaetorily constrained by the mode of genetic operations Experiments provide not only the feasibility and characteristics of storm tracking with modern optimization algorithms, but also references for studies and applications in relevant fields.

INFLUENCE ON NORTHERN PACIFIC STORM TRACK OF EQUATO-RIAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC SSTA DURING WINTER

Singular value decomposition (SVD) is conducted of 15 winter tropical Pacific SST with 500 hPa filtered potential height variance over the northern Pacific storm track. It is shown that the first coupled mode obtained depicts the effect on the track of SSTA over equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Further com-posite analysis indicates that the SSTA over there during winter can give rise to or invigorate PNA teleconnec-tion response pattern in 500 hPa height field which, in turn, exerts crucial influence on the interannual variabil-ity in vigor and east-west displacement of the Pacific storm track, especially over its central and eastern part.

A decadal abruption of midwinter storm tracks over North Pacific from 1951 to 2010

Based on 60-year （1951-2010） reanalysis data of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and extended reconstructed sea surface temperatures, a detailed investigation was conducted to explore the midwinter storm track changes over the North Pacific. The root- mean-square （rms） of subweekly （2.5-6 days） transient of 300 hPa geopotential height field was calculated to represent the storm track. A decadal abruption occurred in 1982/1983, according to the Mann-Kendall test result. The first two Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） spatial patterns of the North Pacific storm track during P1 （1955-1982） and P2 （1983-2010） revealed opposite results：The EOF1 during P1 and the EOF2 during P2 revealed changes of intensity of the midwinter storm track in the North Pacific, whereas the EOF2 during P1 and the EOF1 during P2 exhibited a southward/northward shift of its central axis. In addition, pronounced differences in the thermal influence of the ocean on the storm track during P1 and P2 existed. A strong and sustained ENSO signal contributed to a storm track variation through the westerly jet from1955 to 1982, as the storm track was observed to strengthen and shift equatorward during El Ni6o events. From 1983 to 2010, an apparent sea temperature frontal zone at approximately 40°N and the associated near-surface baroclinicity resulted in the organization of a prominent mid-latitude storm track throughout the depth of the troposphere.

The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere

The midwinter suppression(MWS) of the North Pacific storm track(NPST) has been an active research topic for decades. Based on the daily-mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2018, this study investigates the MWS-related atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere by regression analysis with respect to a new MWS index, which may shed more light on this difficult issue. The occurrence frequency of the MWS of the upper-tropospheric NPST is more than 0.8 after the mid-1980 s. The MWS is accompanied by significantly positive sea-level pressure anomalies in Eurasia and negative anomalies over the North Pacific, which correspond to a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. The intensified East Asian trough and atmospheric blocking in the North Pacific as well as the significantly negative low-level air temperature anomalies, lying upstream of the MNPST, are expected to be distinctly associated with the MWS. However, the relationship between the MWS and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is somewhat puzzling.From the diagnostics of the eddy energy budget, it is identified that the inefficiency of the barotropic energy conversion related to the barotropic governor mechanism does not favor the occurrence of the MWS. In contrast, weakened baroclinic energy conversion, buoyancy conversion, and generation of eddy available potential energy by diabatic heating are conducive to the occurrence of the MWS. In addition, Ural blocking in the upstream region of the MNPST may be another candidate mechanism associated with the MWS.

Different response of North Pacific storm tracks in the upper and lower troposphere to jet strength

北太平洋风暴轴的深冬抑制表明风暴轴强度与斜压性之间的线性关系在冬季破裂,本研究基于1979-2019年冷季的再分析数据和拉格朗日跟踪算法,对比分析了高低层扰动的具体生长过程,结果表明太平洋急流的增强有利于高层扰动在急流核东北侧产生,但却抑制其在西北太平洋的生成,在急流核上游产生的高层扰动在整个冷季都无法充分发展,只有在急流核下游产生的高层扰动才能正常生长且它们是构成高层太平洋风暴轴的主体,相比之下,低层扰动的生成区和生长区都与斜压区重合,并且它们的生成数量和局部增长率随着斜压性的增强而增强.

The Storm Tracks Response to Changes in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentration at the South of Brazil and Southwest Atlantic Ocean

Here we investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling and the contribution of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variations in: 1) Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region, 2) Southwest Atlantic Ocean and 3) Southern Brazil. Numerical simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled ocean-atmosphere model were used to analyze the changes in the seasonal trajectory of the extratropical cyclones, in terms of intensification of physical mechanisms and implications for future scenarios. The numerical experiment for the future scenario considered an atmospheric CO2 concentration of approximately 770 ppm, which represents an increment of more than 350 ppm over the current values recorded by the Mauna Loa reference station. For this scenario, the results indicated a Storm Tracks (ST) displacement of 5° latitude toward south and changes of the meridional transport of sensible heat, close to 50°S. The increase in SST induces ST intensification and consequently an increase in the occurrence of extratropical cyclones. Overall, in the BMC region, we found a change in the pattern of cyclogenetic activity occurrence, with less frequent, but more intense events. On the Southern Brazilian region, the results of this study indicate increases in rainfall during summer months, whereas, a decrease in frequency and an increase in intensity were found for wintertime. We suggest that these changes could impact the climate dynamic of the Brazilian South coast, with a magnitude yet unknown.