Dynamic Assessment on Regional Eco-environmental Quality Using AHP-Statistics Model—A Case Study of Chaohu Lake Basin

An indicator system closely connected with eco-environment, in which indicator involves in such fields as society, economy, resources, environment and ecology, is first proposed for eco-environmental quality assessment. Then, a hierarchical model with four levels is established by virtue of these indicators and attributes. In the model, weights of indicators and attributes are determined by combining Delphi method with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and a statistic method is used to eliminate the influences arising from the differences in dimension and magnitude of indicators. On these grounds, an AHP-statistics model is provided for regional eco-environmental quality assessment. As a case, such AHP-statistics model is utilized in the dynamic analysis of regional eco-environmental assessment in Chaohu Lake basin. Study results show that natural environmental quality in the watershed was in the declining state while social environmental quality was in a markedly improved situation from 1996, and the synthetic eco-environmental quality was gradually and slowly improved under the common influences of both natural and social environmental factors. Example of application testified the capacities of above methodology to evaluate the real and dynamic state of regional eco-environmental quality.

Lottery Numbers and Ordered Statistics

The lottery has long captivated the imagination of players worldwide, offering the tantalizing possibility of life-changing wins. While winning the lottery is largely a matter of chance, as lottery drawings are typically random and unpredictable. Some people use the lottery terminal randomly generates numbers for them, some players choose numbers that hold personal significance to them, such as birthdays, anniversaries, or other important dates, some enthusiasts have turned to statistical analysis as a means to analyze past winning numbers identify patterns or frequencies. In this paper, we use order statistics to estimate the probability of specific order of numbers or number combinations being drawn in future drawings.

Effect Evaluation of CBL Combined with Rain Classroom Teaching Method in Medical Statistics

Objective: To explore the application effect of CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method in medical statistics courses. Methods: The undergraduate students of medical imaging technology in 2019 and 2020 in a university were selected as the research objects. A cluster sampling method was used to select 79 undergraduate students from 2019 in the control group and 75 undergraduate students from 2020 in the experimental group. Traditional teaching method and CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method was used in the control group and experimental group respectively. The final examination scores of the two groups were compared. In experimental group, the correlation between the average score in the rain classroom and the final examination score was tested, and the teaching effect was evaluated. Results: The average score of final examination in experimental group and control group was 79.13 ± 10.32 points and 71.54 ± 14.752 points, respectively, which had a statistically significant difference (Z = 2.586, P = 0.012);the final examination scores of the students in the experimental group were positively correlated with the average scores of the rain classroom (r = 0.372, P = 0.001), and the proportion of satisfaction in the experimental group was 94.7%. Conclusion: The CBL combined with rain classroom teaching method can improve the teaching effectiveness of medical statistics courses.

Innovations and Challenges in Economic Census Methodology:A Study by the Bureau of Statistics

The Bureau of Statistics has demonstrated a forward-looking strategic approach in its economic census.By leveraging dual innovations in technology and management,and incorporating modern technologies such as big data,cloud computing,and the Internet of Things,it has deepened the reform of the census methodology.Additionally,the Bureau has built a multi-dimensional collaborative network that enhances international cooperation,departmental coordination,and public participation.This approach not only addresses the limitations of traditional statistical methods in a complex economic environment but also improves data quality and census efficiency,providing an accurate and reliable foundation for national economic decision-making.

Research on the Application of PBL+SPOC Blended Teaching Model in Probability and Statistics Course

To cultivate talents with an exploratory spirit and practical skills in the era of information technology,it is imperative to reform teaching methods and approaches.In the teaching process of the Probability and Statistics course,an application-oriented blended teaching model combining problem-based learning and small private online course was explored.By organizing and implementing online and offline teaching activities based on problem-based learning,a multidimensional process-oriented learning assessment system was established.Practice has shown that this model can effectively enhance classroom teaching effectiveness,benefiting the improvement of students’overall skills and mathematical literacy.

Integration of Ideological and Political Education into the Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics Course:A Teaching Design Based on Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

With the rapid development of higher education in China,colleges and universities are facing new challenges and impacts in talent training.Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics is one of the important courses in higher education for science and engineering majors and economics and management majors.Its critical role in cultivating students’thinking skills and improving their problem-solving skills is self-evident.Course ideological and political education construction is an important link in college talent training work.Combining ideological and political education with course teaching can help students establish correct value concepts and play a certain role in improving their comprehensive ability and quality.At present,the construction of ideological and political education in the Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics course still faces some problems,mainly manifested in the lack of attention paid by teachers to course ideological and political education,insufficient exploitation of ideological and political elements,and the simplification of ideological and political education implementation methods.In order to comprehensively deepen the construction of course ideological and political education in line with the actual needs of Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics course teaching,we should strengthen the construction of teacher teams,improve teachers’ability to carry out course ideological and political education,integrate educational resources,develop educational resources for ideological and political education,and innovate teaching methods to improve the overall effect of ideological and political education integration.

Eco-environmental Quality Evaluation of Manasi River Basin in Recent 30 Years

Taking the Technical Specifications of Eco-environmental Quality Assessment enacted by the State Environmental Protection Administration in 2006 as the conceptual framework model and improving some indices and weights in the regulation,the eco-environmental assessment index system for Manas River Basin was established,and the eco-environmental quality index (EQI) of this basin from 1976 to 2005 was assessed based on the related data.The results indicated that the ecological quality index increased to 48.26 from 34.44 during 1976-2005.The biologic abundance index,vegetation coverage index and land deterioration index decreased,while there was an increase in water reticulation density index,environmental quality index and pollution load index,so the improvement and deterioration of the ecological environment coexisted in the basin.On the whole,the poor state of the basin ecological environment had turned into a general state,and the eco-environmental quality was developed towards favorable circle.The results also showed that the improved calculating method of EQI accorded with the actual situation of the research area.

The features of soil aggregation and its eco-environmental effects under different subalpine forests on the east slope of Gongga Mountain, China

Structural properties of forest soils have important hydro-ecological function and can influence the soil water-physical characters and soil erosion. The experimental soil samples were obtained in surface horizon (0-10 cm) from different subalpine forest types on east slope of Gongga Mountain in the upriver area of Yangtze River China in May 2002. The soil bulk density, porosity, stable infiltration rate, aggregate distribution and particle-size distribution were analyzed by the routine methods in room, and the features and effects on eco-environment of soil aggregation were studied. The results showed that the structure of soil under mixed mature forest is in the best condition and can clearly enhance the eco-environmental function of soil, and the soil structure under the clear-cutting forest is the worst, the others are ranked between them. The study results can offer a basic guidance for the eco-environmental construction in the upper reaches of Yangtze River.

Reservoir parameter inversion based on weighted statistics

Variation of reservoir physical properties can cause changes in its elastic parameters. However, this is not a simple linear relation. Furthermore, the lack of observations, data overlap, noise interference, and idealized models increases the uncertainties of the inversion result. Thus, we propose an inversion method that is different from traditional statistical rock physics modeling. First, we use deterministic and stochastic rock physics models considering the uncertainties of elastic parameters obtained by prestack seismic inversion and introduce weighting coefficients to establish a weighted statistical relation between reservoir and elastic parameters. Second, based on the weighted statistical relation, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to generate the random joint distribution space of reservoir and elastic parameters that serves as a sample solution space of an objective function. Finally, we propose a fast solution criterion to maximize the posterior probability density and obtain reservoir parameters. The method has high efficiency and application potential.

Wave statistics for ship seakeeping in China offshore

Ocean waves are the core environmental elements affecting the movements and structure design of ships. Statistical analysis of wave parameters is the basis for the establishment of long-term ship environmental adaptability prediction model. The observations from coastal stations, buoys, altimeters and volunteer ships that cover from 1993 to 2011 were interpolated into miller Ion-lat grids by using bilinear method and the analytical fields of ocean waves were given. By using optimal interpolation, the analysis wave fields were assimilated into the WAVEWATCH III （WW3） simulation results. From the assimilated results, the wave rose statistics, the wave height of muitiyear return period and the extreme 2-D wave spectrum are related to the ship seakeeping were calculated. Finally, the wave statistics in China offshore were analyzed in detail.

基于statistics的316L不锈钢柠檬酸钝化工艺正交实验数据分析

从statistics的数据处理能力出发,运用统计学知识对316L不锈钢柠檬酸钝化工艺参数正交实验数据进行分析,找出钝化速率的主要影响因素;柠檬酸含量5wt%、双氧水含量5wt%、钝化时间60 min为最佳的实验方案;双氧水含量为钝化速率的主要影响因素。

Identification of Sewage Monitoring Data Based on Mathematical Statistics

In order to reduce the enormous pressure to environmental monitoring work brought by the false sewage monitoring data, Grubbs method, box plot, t test and other methods are used to make depth analysis to the data, providing a set of technological process to identify the sewage monitoring data, which is convenient and simple.

Using Monte Carlo Simulation Technology to Improve Intuitive Effect of Teaching Probability and Mathematical Statistics Course

With the illustration of a specific problem, this paper demonstrates that using Monte Carlo Simulation technology will improve intuitive effect of teaching Probability and Mathematical Statistics course, and save instructors' effort as well.And it is estimated that Monte Carlo Simulation technology will be one of the major teaching methods for Probability and Mathematical Statistics course in the future.

留学生Medical Statistics线上课程建设与远程教学的实践与思考

受政治、经济和全球健康等因素影响,远程教育成为高等教育的一个发展趋势。新冠疫情防控期间,受出入境限制,未能返华的留学生一直以远程教学推进学业,成为其间持续进行远程教学最久的群体。本研究总结临床专业本科留学生主干课程Medical Statistics的校级一流线上课程建设与教学实践,并比较了疫情前后,线下教学与远程教学的留学生期末考试成绩,发现远程教学成绩经历波动后逐渐稳定并接近传统线下教学。本文同时对效果影响因素进行了调研和分析,发现“充分学习和使用远程课程中丰富的资源”和“上网是否容易”是留学生学习效果的主要影响因素。提出建设丰富教学资源对促进医学统计学远程学习效果的重要影响,同时提出对策建议,以期进一步提高远程教学水平,服务高校现代化课程体系建设。

The eco-environmental guarantee for China's urbanization process

Studying the change of resources consumption and eco-environmental carrying capacity are of importance to the sustainable development of urbanization.Based on the China's economic and social statistical data from 1950 to 2006,the ecological footprint,eco-logical footprint intensity,ecological deficit and surplus,and eco-environment quality com-prehensive index are calculated,the correlation between urbanization and eco-environmental change is analyzed and the eco-environmental guarantee for China's urbanization in 2030 is forecasted.The major results could be summarized as follows:(1) there is a positive linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint,negative linear relation between ur-banization and ecological footprint intensity,ecological deficit and surplus and the negative exponential relation between urbanization and eco-environment quality comprehensive index.(2) By 2030,the urbanization level will reach 61.32%,the ecological deficit will increase to 42.2866×108 hm2 and the eco-environment quality comprehensive index will drop to 0.3016 on the condition that the total quantity ecological footprint achieves 55.9348×108 hm2.(3) Under the existing urban development pattern,the ecological overload will be more serious in the next 24 years.Constructing the reasonable industrial structure and establishing the intensive resources utilization system to alleviate the eco-environmental pressure are the tough challenges in China's urbanization process.

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN,NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thom Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.

Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development and Eco-Environmental Carrying Capacity in Water-Deficient Regions:A Case Study in the Haihe River Basin,China

Quantitative assessment of development sustainability could be a challenge to regional management and planning, especially for areas facing great risks of water shortage. Surface-water decline and groundwater over-pumping have caused serious environmental problems and limited economic development in many regions all around the world. In this paper, a framework for quantitatively evaluating development sustainability was established with water-related eco-environmental carrying capacity （EECC） as the core measure. As a case study, the developed approach was applied to data of the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1998 through 2007. The overall sustainable development degree （SDD） is determined to be 0.39, suggesting that this rate of development is not sustainable. Results of scenario analysis revealed that overshoot, or resource over- exploitation, of the Basin＇s EECC is about 20% for both population and economy. Based on conditions in the study area in 2007, in order to achieve sustainable development, i.e., SDD〉0.70 in this study, the EECC could support a population of 108 million and gross domestic product （GDP） of 2.72 trillion CNY. The newly developed approach in quantifying ecoenvironmental carrying capacity is anticipated to facilitate sustainable development oriented resource management in waterdeficient areas.

Land cover change and eco-environmental quality response of different geomorphic units on the Chinese Loess Plateau

Land cover in the Chinese Loess Plateau has undergone dramatic changes since the late 1980s.Revealing the trend in land cover change and eco-environmental quality response of different geomorphic units in this stage is a realistic requirement for promoting sustainable development of the Chinese Loess Plateau.Based on the data of geomorphic units and land cover in 1990,2000,2010 and 2018 of the Chinese Loess Plateau,we studied the trend of land cover change and eco-environmental quality response of different geomorphic units by using a significance index of land cover change,a proportion index of land cover change and an eco-environmental response model.The results indicated that from 1990 to 2018,the areas of forestland and construction land substantially increased,whereas those of cropland,grassland,wetland and unused land considerably decreased.Land cover change exhibited large geomorphic differences,and the main conversion of land cover was from cropland into other land types.Unstable trend of land cover change in the loess tablelands and sandy loess hills declined,whereas the unstable trends in the other geomorphic units enhanced.Eco-environmental quality varied among different geomorphic units.The expansion of construction land and degradation of forestland,grassland and wetland resulted in the deterioration of eco-environmental quality.The conversion of cropland and unused land into forestland and grassland,and the conversion of grassland into forestland were the main factors that drove the improvement of eco-environmental quality.The findings of this study may provide theoretical reference and support decision making for the optimization of land use structure and the improvement of eco-environmental quality on the Chinese Loess Plateau.

Performance analysis of multi-channel order statistics detector for range-spread target

The problem of two order statistics detection schemes for the detection of a spatially distributed target in white Gaussian noise are studied.When the number of strong scattering cells is known,we first show an optimal detector,which requires many processing channels.The structure of such optimal detector is complex.Therefore,a simpler quasi-optimal detector is then introduced.The quasi-optimal detector,called the strong scattering cells’ number dependent order statistics（SND-OS） detector,takes the form of an average of maximum strong scattering cells with a known number.If the number of strong scattering cells is unknown in real situation,the multi-channel order statistics（MC-OS） detector is used.In each channel,a various number of maximums scattered from target are averaged.Then,the false alarm probability analysis and thresholds sets for each channel are given,following the detection results presented by means of Monte Carlo simulation strategy based on simulated target model and three measured targets.In particular,the theoretical analysis and simulation results highlight that the MC-OS detector can efficiently detect range-spread targets in white Gaussian noise.

Target detection for low angle radar based on multi-frequency order-statistics

For radar targets flying at low altitude, multiple pathways produce fade or enhancement relative to the level that would be expected in a free-space environment. In this paper, a new detec- tion method based on a wide-ranging multi-frequency radar for low angle targets is proposed. Sequential transmitting multiple pulses with different frequencies are first applied to decorrelate the cohe- rence of the direct and reflected echoes. After receiving all echoes, the multi-frequency samples are arranged in a sort descending ac- cording to the amplitude. Some high amplitude echoes in the same range cell are accumulated to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and the optimal number of high amplitude echoes is analyzed and given by experiments. Finally, simulation results are presented to verify the effectiveness of the method.