Analysis of spatial distribution characteristics and driving factors of ethnicminority villages in China using geospatial technology and statistical models

This study aims to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of 1,652 Ethnic-Minority Villages(EMV)in China and to analyze the mechanisms driving their spatial heterogeneity.EMV are a special type of settlement space that preserve a large number of historical traces of the ethnic culture of ancient China.They are important carriers of China’s excellent traditional culture and are key to the implementation of rural revitalization strategies.In this study,1652 EMV in China were selected as the research subjects.The Nearest Neighbor Index,kernel density,and spatial autocorrelation index were employed to reveal the spatial structural characteristics of minority villages.Neural network models,spatial lag models,and geographical detectors were used to analyze the formation mechanism of spatial heterogeneity in EMV.The results indicate that:(1)EMV exhibit significant spatial differentiation characterized by“single-core with multiple surrounding sub-centers,”“polarization between east and west,”“decreasing quantity from southwest to east coast to northeast to northwest,”and“large dispersion with small agglomeration.”(2)EMV are mainly distributed in areas rich in intangible cultural heritage,with high vegetation coverage and low altitude,far from central cities,and having limited arable land and an underdeveloped economy and transportation,particularly in shaded or riverbank areas.(3)Distance from the nearest river(X3),distance from central cities(X8),national intangible cultural heritage(X9),and NDVI(X10)were the main driving factors affecting the spatial distribution of EMV,whereas elevation(X1)and GDP(X5)had the weakest influence.As EMV are a relatively unique territorial spatial unit,the identification of their spatial heterogeneity characteristics not only deepens the research content of settlement geography,but also involves the assessment,protection,and development of Minority Villages,which is of great significance for the inheritance and utilization of excellent ethnic cultures in the era.

Emission-side drivers affecting carbon neutrality based on vegetation carbon sequestration:Evidence from China

To address climate change,the world needs deep decarbonization to achieve carbon neutrality(CN),which implies net-zero human-caused CO_(2) emissions in the atmosphere.This study used emission-side drivers,including socioeconomic and net primary productivity(NPP)-based factors,to determine the changes in CN based on vegetation carbon sequestration in the case of China during 2001-2015.Spatial exploratory analysis as well as the combined use of production-theoretical decomposition analysis(PDA)and an econometric model were also utilized.We showed that CN was significantly spatially correlated over the study period;Yunnan,Heilongjiang,and Jilin presented positive spatial autocorrelations,whereas Guizhou showed a negative spatial autocorrelation.More than half of CN declined over the period during which potential energy intensity(PEIE)and energy usage technological change were the largest negative and positive drivers for increasing CN.PEIE played a significantly negative role in increasing CN.We advise policymakers to focus more on emission-side drivers(e.g.,energy intensity)in addition to strengthening NPP management to achieve CN.

A Comparative Study on Factors Influencing Food Security in China and India

This paper analyzes and compares the key factors influencing food security in two populous countries(China and India),and cate-gorizes them into three types:agricultural production,economic development and income level,and income distribution.Using the prevalence of undernourishment as an indicator of food security,the paper empirically tests the degree of impact of various factors on food security in both countries using Tobit regression and Newey regression methods.The study finds that improving the level of economic development can significantly enhance food security in both countriesꎻreducing the Gini coefficient has a significant impact on India,but not on Chinaꎻincreasing the agricultural production per capita has a much greater effect on China than on India.Therefore,both countries should take measures that are both similar and different according to their national conditions to improve their food security level.

Urban Agglomerations in China: Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Population Agglomeration

Urban agglomeration(UA)is an advanced spatial economic form formed and developed in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization,and an important carrier of urbanization and economic development.The economy has developed rapidly in the recent decades of China,and the UAs have also developed rapidly.However,as a large population country,the population distribution and changes of UAs in China has unique characteristics.Using the fifth,sixth and seventh population census data,spatial auto-correlation and spatial econometric models,we analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of population agglomeration in China’s UAs.Results revealed that:1)from 2000 to 2020,the population gradually converged into UAs,and the characteristics of population agglomeration in different development degree of UAs differ.The higher the development degree of UA,the higher the population agglomeration degree.Besides,UAs are the main area with the most significant population agglomeration degree,and the spatial autocorrelation show that the cities with similar degree tend to be concentrated in space.The urban population gathering in UAs has a certain positive spillover effect on population size of neighboring cities.2)Economic development and social conditions factors are important factors affecting population agglomeration degree in UAs.The main factors of population gather into UAs are similar with the outside UAs,but the positive promotion of urbanization rate and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP on population agglomeration of UAs in China are enhancing from 2000 to 2020.Meanwhile,the other factors,such as high-quality public services,good urban living environment conditions,high-quality medical and educational resources,are also important factors to promote urban population gather into UAs.This study provides a basis for formulating the development planning of UAs in China,and enriches the relevant theoretical research of population evolution and influencing factors of UAs.

Assessing the dynamics of human activity intensity and its natural and socioeconomic determinants in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Investigating the spatiotemporal variation of human activity intensity and its determinants is a crucial basis for further revealing the mechanism of human-environment interaction and optimizing the human development mode.In this study,the human activity intensity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)from 1990 to 2020 was measured based on the quantitative model of land use data and the actual regional background,and the under-lying natural and socioeconomic determinants were investigated using spatial econometric methods.The results demonstrate that(1)the human activity intensity in QTP has increased by 11.96%,and there are differences in different spatial scales;the areas with high human activity intensity are distributed in the Hehuang Valley where Xining City and its surrounding areas are located,as well as the One-River and Two-River Area where Lhasa City and surrounding areas are located.(2)Human activity intensity has significant positive spatial spillover,suggesting that local changes will cause changes in the same direction in adjacent areas.(3)The human activ-ity intensity in QTP is affected by various determinants.Concerning socioeconomic factors,the economic level has no significant impact on the human activity intensity in QTP,which differs from the general regional law.Both urbanization and traffic conditions have a significant positive effect,and the impact intensity continues to increase.Concerning natural factors,topographic relief has a significant positive effect;the impacts of temper-ature and vegetation coverage have changed from insignificant to a significant positive effect;the impacts of precipitation and river network density have not been verified;there is no linear relationship between altitude and human activity intensity in the entire QTP,while it exists in local regions.Finally,this study proposes three policy implications for the realization of a more harmonious human-environment relationship in QTP.

Analysis on the Spatial Agglomeration and Coupling of Socioeconomic Factors in Qinghai Tourism Under the Background of“Belt and Road”

Qinghai is the strategic base and important fulcrum of the Belt and Road Initiative while tourism is a strategic pillar industry in Qinghai Province.Due to its rich tourism resources and unique ecological environment,the integration of tourism in Qinghai into the Belt and Road has attracted great attention of the Asian Development Bank(ADB).With the spatial data of tourism elements POI and the statistical data of 44 counties in Qinghai to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of the spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai,the paper conducts research on spatial coupling and concludes with the following results:The spatial agglomeration of tourism in Qinghai presents the distribution pattern of“one circle and one belt”;economic density and population density play an important role in the formation of the spatial agglomeration pattern of tourism with some spatial spillovers;Belt and Road has a significant impact on the promotion of tourism agglomeration in Qinghai.The paper suggests that tourism in Qinghai should fully integrate into the Belt and Road,giving full play to the guiding role of Belt and Road in the allocation of social and economic resources,and optimizing the spatial layout.

Fighting African capital flight: trajectories, dynamics, and tendencies

This study provides a harmonization framework for common capital flight policies in Africa.It builds on evidence of persistent extreme poverty in the continent to assess how common measures can be adopted by sampled countries on one cause of extreme poverty:capital flight.The dataset is sub-divided into fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income levels,legal foundations,natural resources,political stability,regional proximity,and religious domination.The main finding shows that from a projection date of 2010,a feasible timeframe for harmonizing policies is between 2016 and 2023.This timeframe coincides with the beginning of the post-2015 agenda on sustainable development goals.

Modelling Recycling Targets:Achieving a 50%Recycling Rate for Household Waste in Denmark

Within the European Union (EU) a paradigm shift is currently occurring in the waste sector, where EU waste directives and national waste strategies are placing emphasis on resource efficiency and recycling targets. The most recent Danish resource strategy calculates a national recycling rate of 22% for household waste, and sets an ambitious goal of a 50% recycling rate by 2020. This study integrates the recycling target into the FRIDA model to project how much waste and from which streams should be diverted from incineration to recycling in order to achieve the target. Furthermore, it discusses how the existing technological, organizational and legislative frameworks may affect recycling activities. The results of the analysis show that with current best practice recycling rates, the 50% recycling rate cannot be reached without recycling of household biowaste. It also shows that all Danish municipalities will need to make efforts to recover all recyclable fractions, and that the increased recycling efforts of only selected municipalities will not be sufficient to reach the target.

Can Talent Policies Attract Population Inflows?—An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Modeling

To analyze the spatial influence mechanism of talent policy on population flow, this study compares the government work reports of 31 provinces between 2008 and 2020, and quantifies regional talent policies in nine aspects, including talent evaluation and incentives, utilizing a comprehensive, standardized, and continuous approach. Additionally, this paper develops a spatial econometric analysis model and expands on the conventional neighborhood, distance, and economic matrices by constructing a spatial weight matrix that reflects talent flow. The findings indicate that population movement exhibits spatial clustering patterns. The regional government's talent policy, primarily based on talent evaluation and incentives, positively influences population inflow. Moreover, during the implementation of talent policies, local governments demonstrate cooperative relationships. The inter-regional spillover effect between talent evaluation and talent incentives is significantly positive. In other words, a stronger local talent evaluation policy, along with robust talent incentives, encourages population inflow from neighboring provinces. However, this conclusion may vary in different regions and over time. Recently, the spatial spillover effect of population inflow and the impact of talent policies have not shown significant results. Additionally, the attractiveness of talent evaluation in the eastern region surpasses that of talent incentives, while the opposite holds true for the central and western regions. This study investigates the impact of local government talent policies on population inflow and its spatial spillover effect, offering theoretical support for intergovernmental cooperation.

Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

There is plenty of forests in Northeast China which contributes a lot to the conservation of water and land resources, produces timber products, and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes of socio-economic factors as well as the geophysical conditions, there are dramatic changes on the spatial patterns of forest area. In this sense, it is of great significance to shed light on the dynamics of forest area changes to find the underlining reasons for shaping the changing patterns of forest area in Northeast China. To explore the dynamics of forest area change in Northeast China, an econometric model is developed which is composed of three equations identifying forestry production, conversion from open forest to closed forest and conversion from other land uses to closed forest so as to explore the impacts on the forest area changes from demographic, social, economic, location and geophysical factors. On this basis, we employ the Dynamics of Land System （DLS） model to simulate land-use conversions between forest area and non-forest cover and the land-use conversions within the sub-classes of forest area for the period 2000-2020 under business as usual scenario, environmental protection scenario and economic growth scenario. The simulation results show that forest area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the sub-classes of forest area, for example, closed forest will expand continuously and open forest and shrub will decrease a little bit, while area of other forest will keep intact. The research results provide meaningful decision-making information for conserving and exploiting the forest resources and makJng out the planning for forestry production Jn the Northeast China region.

Factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province

This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model （SEM）. A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.

Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution in China:Evaluation,Convergence Characteristics and Spatial Effects

In this study,an inventory analysis approach was used to investigate the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution(ANSP)and its spatial convergence at national and provincial levels in China from 1999 to 2017.On this basis,spatial factors affecting ANSP were explored by constructing a spatial econometric model.The results indicate that:1)The intensity of China's ANSP emission showed an overall upward trend and an obvious spatial difference,with the values being high in the eastern and central regions and relatively low in the western region.2)Significant spatial agglomeration was shown in China's ANSP intensity,and the agglomeration effect was increasing gradually.3)In the convergence analysis,a spatial lag model was found applicable for interpretation of the ANSP intensity,with the convergence rate being accelerated after considering the spatial factors but slower than that of regional economic growth.4)The spatial factors affecting the ANSP intensity are shown to be reduced by improving agricultural infrastructure investment,labor-force quality,and crop production ratio,while the expansion of agricultural economy scale and precipitation and runoff have positive impact on ANSP in the study region.However,agricultural research and development(R&D)investment showed no direct significant effect on the ANSP intensity.Meanwhile,improving the quality of the labor force would significantly reduce the ANSP intensity in the surrounding areas,while the precipitation and runoff would significantly increase the pollution of neighboring regions.This research has laid a theoretical basis for formulation and optimization of ANSP prevention strategies in China and related regions.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Green Total-factor Water-use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China

In this study,we developed an evaluation index system for green total-factor water-use efficiency(GTFWUE)which reflected both economic and green efficiencies of water resource utilization.Then we measured the GTFWUE of 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions(hereafter provinces)in China(not including Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan as no data)from 2000 to 2018 using a minimum distance to the strong frontier model that contained an undesirable output.We further analyzed the regional differences and spatial correlations of GTFWUE using these values based on Global and Local Moran’s I statistics,and empirically determined the factors affecting GTFWUE using a spatial econometric model.The evaluation results revealed that the GTFWUE differed substantially between the regions.The provinces with high and low GTFWUE values were located in the coastal and inland areas of China,respectively.The eastern region had a significantly higher GTFWUE than the central and western regions.The GTFWUEs for all three regions(eastern,central,and western regions)decreased slowly from 2000 to 2011(except 2005),remained stable from 2012 to 2016,and rapidly increased in 2017 before decreasing again in 2018.We found significant spatial correlations between the provincial GTFWUEs.The GTFWUE for most provinces belonged to the high-high or low-low cluster region,revealing a significant spatial clustering effect of provincial GTFWUEs.We also found that China’s GTFWUE was highly promoted by economic growth,population size,opening-up level,and urbanization level,and was evidently hindered by water endowment,technological progress,and government influence.However,the water-use structure had little impact on GTFWUE.This study fully demonstrated that the water use mode would be improved,and water resources needed to be used more efficiently and green in China.Moreover,based on the findings of this study,several policy recommendations were proposed from the aspects of cross-regional cooperation,economy,society,and institution.

Regional Agricultural Input-Output Model and Countermeasure for Production and Income Increase of Farmers in Southern Xinjiang,China

Agricultural input and output status in southern Xinjiang,China is introduced,such as lack of agricultural input,low level of agricultural modernization,excessive fertilizer use,serious damage of environment,shortage of water resources,tremendous pressure on ecological balance,insignificant economic and social benefits of agricultural production in southern Xinjiang,agriculture remaining a weak industry,agricultural economy as the economic subject of southern Xinjiang,and backward economic development of southern Xinjiang.Taking the Aksu area as an example,according to the input and output data in the years 2002-2007,input-output model about regional agriculture of the southern Xinjiang is established by principal component analysis.DPS software is used in the process of solving the model.Then,Eviews software is adopted to revise and test the model in order to analyze and evaluate the economic significance of the results obtained,and to make additional explanations of the relevant model.Since the agricultural economic output is seriously restricted in southern Xinjiang at present,the following countermeasures are put forward,such as adjusting the structure of agricultural land,improving the utilization ratio of land,increasing agricultural input,realizing agricultural modernization,rationally utilizing water resources,maintaining eco-environmental balance,enhancing the awareness of agricultural insurance,minimizing the risk and loss,taking the road of industrialization of characteristic agricultural products,and realizing the transfer of surplus labor force.

Modelling of Corporate Exposure at Default(EAD)in Emerging Financial Markets:The Case for Counters Listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange(ZSE)in the Dollarization Era

This study explores the Exposure at Default(EAD)emanating from credit events undertaken by listed banking corporations trading on emerging markets,such as Zimbabwe’s Stock Exchange(ZSE)or market in the dollarization era,namely period 2010-2012.The dollarization of the Zimbabwean economy in 2009 coincided with the recovery of the global financial economy from the worst worldwide economic recession ever experienced in this world.The study used audited and published data drawn from financial statements of two banking corporations for the period 2010 to 2012 that were accessible on ZSE website.These data were presented and analyzed using Eviews7.The study revealed that there were a lot of non-performing loans drawn from EADs of banking corporations trading on the ZSE in the period under review.The study further noted that credit exposures issued by commercial banks in the period 2010-2012 were also exposed to risk from the nature of the borrowers,banks’internal and external market variables.The variables that impacted on banks’credit exposures include political,social,industrial,unemployment,technological challenges,state of financial markets,their capitalization and liquidity statuses.We therefore conclude that banks in emerging markets need to efficiently and effectively manage their credit portfolios in their desire to grow towards sustainable development.The study also concludes that banks in emerging markets that are into lending activities should adopt and implement financial econometric(EAD)models that are easy to apply,practical,pragmatic,and adjusted for market friction.The study recommends that listed banking corporations in emerging markets need to adhere to the requirements of the Basel Ⅱ and Ⅲ Capital Accords if they are to make meaningful business out of their credit exposure operations.It also recommends that banks should come up with capitalization and investment strategies that suit their economic conditions if they are to grow and develop sizeable market shares and wealth from their lending businesses.Finally the study recommends that banks in emerging economies should adapt to international business standards,strategies,ethics,and corporate governance parameters if they are to grow towards greater similarity with those in developed nations in their service delivery to the stakeholders and contribution to nation building and sustainable development.

Assessing the Impact of the“Two-child Policy”in China:The Effects of the Second Child on the Growth of Teenagers

Purpose:China’s new universal two-child policy has brought a baby boom of the second child in 2016.With the changing family structures,elder children in adolescence may have more and more emotional and even psycholog­ical problems such as“two-child syndrome”.This paper aims to explore the“influence factors and mechanism of the second child on the growth of teenagers”and has great practical significance to promote the physical and mental health of teenagers and the harmony of two-child families.Design/methodology/approach:By means of literature analysis,in-depth interview,questionnaire survey and statistical analysis,the elder children aged 12 to 18 in the two-child family were taken as the main body of the survey,and an empirical research based on NLP understanding hierarchy theory was carried out.Major Findings:(1)The most significant influence on the growth of teenagers is the attitude of parents,and then the gender of the first child.(2)Parents’favouritism towards the second child would lead to decline in the first child’s academic performance.(3)The higher the family income,the less the influence on the first child’s life.(4)When the age difference is large,the first child and the second child are not easy to have conflicts.Practical implications:Parents should try to treat any children equally.Parents should pay attention to the sibling relationship of their two chil­dren with small age gap.Parents who have two children with a large age gap should properly guide the elder child to help take care of the younger brother or sister.Originality/value:This study contributes to the growing literature focus­ing on the influence factors and mechanism of the second child on the growth of teenagers in the context of China’s new universal two-child policy.It adds some early empirical insights on the physical and mental health of teenagers in two-child families.

Green development and economic resilience:Evidence from Chinese resource-based cities

Resource-based cities are currently facing challenges due to ecological pollution and an unbalanced industrial structure,which hinders sustainable economic growth.The focus on green development as a strategy for economic growth and environmental protection is becoming increasingly popular.This study employs a spatial econometric model to explore the effect of green development on economic resilience in Chinese resource-based cities from 2011 to 2019,revealing a positive correlation between green development and economic resilience.For each 1 unit increase in green development,economic resilience increases by an average of 0.512 units.Furthermore,the analysis of heterogeneity reveals differences in the factors influencing various resource-based cities.In addition,provincial green policies bolster economic resilience by encouraging green development.This research aids in comprehending the balance between the economy and the environment.

Does political propaganda matter in mitigating climate change?Insights from the United States of America

Some research on climate change has been the basis of climate change denialism(here-after,CCD is used to refer to denial,denialism,and deniers).There is formative knowledge about the role of political propaganda in climate policies and resulting outcomes.Tocontribute to the understanding of political ideology and the extent of CCD,we adopt econometric techniques to study the impact of the United States of America's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.The results show that ideological political propaganda haspsychological and philosophical consequences that impact climate change policies.In addition,we find that the effect of a state's economic growth on climate change is mediated by CCD.In particular,low-income capitalist states have a higher propensity to become CCDs because they are more likely to engage in economic expansion even at the expense of environmental sustainability.Global climate change policies depend on high-income nations and industries'willingness to adopt economic policies to achieve sus-tainable future development.Thus,this study fills the literature gap on the relationship between political ideology and climate change.The findings show that CCD significantlyinfluences voting patterns and socioeconomic outcomes.It impedes states from achieving net-zero emissions and carbon neutrality and it is used as a political propaganda.Subject to these findings,relevant policy suggestions are offered.

Quantitative measuring and influencing mechanism of urban and rural land intensive use in ChinaQuantitative measuring and influencing mechanism of urban and rural land intensive use in China

Land use issue is an important constraining force to limit economic sustainable development of China. Urban and rural rapid expansion depletes valued land resources under the background of rapid urbanization. An extensive use pattern might cause a serious waste of land resources. The study on influencing mechanism of land intensive use （LIU） in China at the county level is a key tool for effective LIU practice and policy-making. This paper uses OLS model, Spatial Panel Lagged model and Spatial Panel Error model to quantitatively analyze the influencing mechanisms of five class factors and 17 variables supported by GIS （Geographic Information System） and MATLAB. And a comprehensive data set was devel- oped including physical geography and socio-economic information of 2286 counties. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal pattern of LIU has discussed by means of GIS. The results show that Spatial Panel Data models are slightly superior to OLS model in terms of signifi- cance and confidence level. Regression results of these models indicate that industrialization, urbanization, economic development level, location, transportation and policy have significant impact on LIU of counties. The variables of physical geography are less significant than socio-economic variables. An ignored variable of historical factor, however, became the best significant factor. In the future, the LIU at the county level should take advantage of the new situation by enhancing favorable factors and reducing disadvantageous ones, which can be acquired by improving the entire level and quality of industrialization and urbanization. We argued that an efficient and complete land market and operating system should be built to reflect market-oriented activities at the first place, then, differential LIU regulation policies and measurements should be optimized according to regional differences. In the meantime, we should pay close attention to the carrying capacity of local resources and environments when conducting LIU practices.

Methods for determining unimpeded aircraft taxiing time and evaluating airport taxiing performance

The objective of this study is to improve the methods of determining unimpeded（nominal） taxiing time,which is the reference time used for estimating taxiing delay,a widely accepted performance indicator of airport surface movement.After reviewing existing methods used widely by different air navigation service providers（ANSP）,new methods relying on computer software and statistical tools,and econometrics regression models are proposed.Regression models are highly recommended because they require less detailed data and can serve the needs of general performance analysis of airport surface operations.The proposed econometrics model outperforms existing ones by introducing more explanatory variables,especially taking aircraft passing and over-passing into the considering of queue length calculation and including runway configuration,ground delay program,and weather factors.The length of the aircraft queue in the taxiway system and the interaction between queues are major contributors to long taxi-out times.The proposed method provides a consistent and more accurate method of calculating taxiing delay and it can be used for ATM-related performance analysis and international comparison.