Do U.S.economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil‑price returns?A quantile machine‑learning approach

Because the U.S.is a major player in the international oil market,it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subse-quent realized volatility of oil price returns.To address this research question,we frame our analysis in terms of variants of the popular heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility(HAR-RV)model.To estimate the models,we use quantile-regression and quantile machine learning(Lasso)estimators.Our estimation results highlights the dif-ferential effects of economic conditions on the quantiles of the conditional distribution of realized volatility.Using weekly data for the period April 1987 to December 2021,we document evidence of predictability at a biweekly and monthly horizon.

An overview of the resources and environment conditions and major geological problems in the Yangtze River economic zone, China

Focusing on the Yangtze River economic zone,the previous geological researches are systematically summarized,resources and environment conditions and major geological problems which are needing to be concerned in land planning and construction are studied.The results show that the resource conditions of cultivated land,shale gas,geotherm,lithium and so on are superior in the Yangtze River economic zone,and the resources and environment conditions are conducive to develop the modern agriculture,clean energy industry and strategic emerging industries.3×1013 m^2 farmlands without heavy metal pollution are concentrated;there are three national level shale gas exploration and development bases with explored reserves of 5.441×1011 m^3;geothermal availability is 2.4×109 t of standard coal each year,equivalent to 19% of the amount of coal in 2014;Asia's largest energy lithium metal ore deposit is found.In some parts of Yangtze River economic zone,there are some major geological problems such as active faults,karst collapse,ground subsidence,landslide-collapse-debris flow,affecting the river-crossing channels,high-speed railway,urban agglomeration and green ecological corridor planning and construction.Those problems should be concerned,and the relevant suggestions and countermeasures are put forward.Meanwhile,the ideas to further support the development of the Yangtze River economic zone are put forward.

Natural Resource Conditions and Economic Development in the Uttaranchal Himalaya,India

Uttaranchal is bestowed with numerous rivers, huge forest resources ranging from tropical to temperate, tourists＇ places, pilgrimages and feasible climatic conditions for growing fruits, vegetables, food grains, livestock rearing, tea garden practices, etc. The economic development, on the other hand, could not take place partly due to lack of modern technology with innovation in agricultural system and also unwillingness of the people towards using it. Furthermore, due to its harsh climatic conditions, rigorous terrain and distinct identity, as a part of Uttar Pradesh state, the development could not take place and today the state is believed to be one of the poorer states. Infrastructurally, this region is lagged behind due to its inaccessibility. The ideal geographical and agrarian conditions might be used evenly for the developmental processes. Ecologically, the whole region is socio-economic activities, fragile. The diverse harsh traditional beliefs and hard working potentials further change the entire scenario of the state. Only the need of the hours is to frame and implementation of the rational policies and planning for sustainable development of the state. What had appeared during the past, pertaining to the economic development, needs radical changes in policies, planning and beliefs. This paper aims to evaluate the present conditions of resources as a form of natural vegetation, agricultural crops, horticultural farming, herbs, tea garden practices, livestock rearing, hydropower projects and economic development of the Uttaranchal Himalaya.

Interconnections between governance and socioeconomic conditions:Understanding the challenges in sub-Saharan Africa

Given that challenges on the issue of socioeconomic development faced by countries in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA)have been identified as critical to strengthening the inherent link between governance and socioeconomic conditions,this study examines the interconnections between governance and socioeconomic conditions in SSA.With a focus on 25 countries in SSA between 2005 and 2019,we conduct the analysis based on the Panel-Corrected Standard Error and System Generalized Method of Moments estimations and panel causality tests.The results show that SSA does not seem to have the means of effective governance to spur improved socioeconomic conditions.Moreover,the pervasiveness of institutional problems in many countries of SSA has been responsible for the poor socioeconomic conditions in the region.Likewise,governance quality and socioeconomic conditions are found to influence each other.An improvement in socioeconomic conditions could result in better governance quality.On the other hand,governance quality is viewed as a vital ingredient in achieving needed socioeconomic development outcomes.Thus,it is suggested that there is a need for countries in SSA to streamline governing systems toward engendering improved well-being.The introduction and implementation of transformative policies through effective governance are also necessary for ensuring critical structural changes and increasing social service provision.Overall,there should be a proactive identification of ineffective policies and procedures by policymakers to enhance meaningful impacts in the region.

Basic conditions study to accelerate the realization of transformation of Shaanxi＇s economy growth mode

It is an urgent and important economic work in the moment and the next period for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Relatively, there must be certain basic conditions. This article makes elaboration of the basic conditions, which accelerate the change of Shaanxi＇s economic growth mode from government angle, and proposes countermeasures for it, according to Shaanxi＇s situation and the requirement of scientific development concept, in order to provide basis for the government＇s economic growth transformation.

Agricultural production structure,market conditions and farmers’nutritional intake in rural China

Nutrition poverty alleviation is an effective measure to improve the nutritional status of economically disadvantaged individuals,fundamentally improving their health and reducing poverty.Based on the Entitlement Theory and using the China Health and Nutrition Survey(CHNS)data,this paper examines the relationship between farmers’nutritional intake,production structure and regional market conditions.Results show that farmers with diversified production have better nutritional intake than those who specialize.Furthermore,the correlation between regional market conditions and nutritional intake varies between economically disadvantaged and non-economically disadvantaged households.Market conditions significantly influence the carbohydrate and fat intake of economically disadvantaged households and are positively associated with the dietary structure and nutritional intake of non-economically disadvantaged ones.Moreover,income is positively correlated with the nutritional intake of non-economically disadvantaged households but not with economically disadvantaged ones.

Environmental and Economic Impact of Forest Fires in Puerto Rico 2013-2014

This study presents an analysis of the impact of forest fires in Puerto Rico for the period from 2013-2014. The climatological factors analyzed included precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Several factors have combined to the increase of these forest fires, among others, a decrease in precipitation during this period, as well as an increase in the human involvement in these fires from approximately 40% occurs in the night period (5:00 pm to 8:00 am), where the weather conditions do not favor the appearance of these phenomena. An increase in fires of 44% occurred in 2013 compared to 2014, causing an economic loss of $13.8 million. Fire also adversely affected the flora and fauna of the island, but this was not evaluated in this paper.

A Short Derivation of the Kuhn-Tucker Conditions

The Kuhn-Tucker conditions have been used to derive many significant results in economics. However, thus far, their derivation has been a little bit troublesome. The author directly derives the Kuhn-Tucker conditions by applying a corollary of Farkas’s lemma under the Mangasarian-Fromovitz constraint qualification and shows the boundedness of Lagrange multipliers.

The Effect of PM2.5 on Economic Situation of Beijing and Solutions

China＇s environmental problems have become increasingly serious, which have caused great attention of the relevant departments of the state. Through the survey, we found that in most of the cities in our country, the inhalable particulate matter PM10 is one of the main pollutants, especially in the capital of China -- Beijing, which is the arch-criminal cause of the air pollution. According to the quality control report released in Beijing City Environmental Protection Bureau, as can be learned, in recent years, Beijing＇s air quality goes from bad to worse, and in the overall atmospheric pollutants, the PM10 is up to above nine tenths. There are more reports saying that the air pollution levels in Beijing have been not suitable for the human habitation. With the increasing of the air pollution, the term PM2.5 is also more and more familiar to us. The air more intensified the pollution is, the greater the ratio of PM2.5 in PM10 is. In that case, it not only seriously affects the people＇s health, but also brings the huge economic losses. This paper is aimed to analyze the influence of PM2.5 on the economic situation of Beijing, and puts forward the concrete solutions.

新发展格局下金融对经济高质量发展各维度支持效应研究

根据构建新发展格局要求,建立经济高质量发展评价指标体系,并将其细分为经济发展强度、合理化及外向性三个维度,进一步运用MF-VAR模型探究金融发展对经济高质量发展不同维度的具体支持效应。结果显示:金融发展能够迅速刺激经济发展强度的提升,对技术创新支持效应显著;而其对发展合理化的影响则最为显著且持久,即稳定的金融市场仍是经济长期协调发展的重要助力。特别地,金融规模的持续扩大会抑制发展强度,但对发展合理化及外向性水平的影响微弱,因此应防范可能出现的过度金融化问题。

基于等微增率并计及机组功率约束的火电机组最优负荷分配精确解

火电机组最优负荷分配是电力系统经济运行的重要模型,也是电力系统本科生专业基础课《电力系统分析》的重要教学内容之一。经典教科书采用等微增率方法求解该问题,并给出了相应的物理含义。由于等微增率法是基于不考虑火电机组上下界物理约束而推导出来的,部分教科书补充了计及火电机组上下界物理约束时的情况,即如果某台机组的无约束最优解违背了上(下)界约束,则将该机组对应的最优解限制到相应的出力上(下)界,然后对其余火电机组再进行重新的等微增率分配。然而,简单算例表明,补充求解方法的适用范围是有限的。为此,该文对火电机组最优负荷分配问题进行重新探索,推导教材方法适用的一个充分条件与一个必要条件。面向本科生与研究生,分别提出考虑机组上下界约束后的最优负荷分配方法,并进行严格的理论推导。理论推导与大量的仿真算例表明,在机组数量较少时,教材中的求解方法有可能适用,而机组数较多时,可能出现不适用的情况。该文所提方法可以将适用范围扩展到机组数量较多的场景,并且进行严格理论推导。希望该文可以为《电力系统分析》教学过程与教材修订提供帮助。

基于混频动态因子模型的数字经济状态指数构建与预测研究——以杭州市为例

我国数字经济规模不断扩大,在经济发展、税收、就业等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。为及时了解数字经济发展现状、对数字经济发展趋势做出预判,有必要构建刻画数字经济发展状态的数字经济状态指数。本文提出运用混频动态因子模型,从不同频度的数据中提取因子构建月度数字经济状态指数的方法,并运用杭州市季度数字经济产业增加值和月度数字经济产业营业收入数据进行实证分析,构建了杭州市月度数字经济状态指数。实证结果表明,所构建的月度数字经济状态指数能很好地刻画数字经济发展状态,且可以为预测季度数字经济状态指数提供有用信息,从而为政府决策提供理论支持。

非常规天然气勘探开发技术经济特征

随着天然气勘探开发进程深入推进,常规天然气增储上产的难度逐渐增大,天然气勘探开发领域从以常规气为主逐步转向常规气与非常规气并举,但常规天然气和非常规天然气在技术经济特征方面存在明显差异。为此,立足成因与地质特征、勘探开发风险、勘探开发成本以及开发技术体系等方面,对中国常规气与非常规气开展了对比分析。研究结果表明:①我国非常规天然气的成因与地质特征更为复杂,应通过对标等方式进一步摸清我国非常规气地质条件情况及发展规律,降低勘探工作的不确定性;②非常规天然气勘探开发风险普遍更高,需通过风险识别、风险评价、风险管理成熟度研究等方式摸清风险底数,将风险“被动遇见”转变成“主动预见”;③非常规天然气开发成本总体高于常规天然气,可采取常规-非常规天然气、非常规天然气间联探并采、加大技术研发提高开发效率、统筹优化作业环节减少无效成本、加强安全风险控制降低事故发生率、推行成本目标管理制度等降低开发成本;④常规与非常规天然气技术体系各有侧重,可通过设立创新研究专项资金、搭建非常规气知识共享平台、理论研究与实践应用协同推进等措施促进技术进步。

我国区域经济增长差异与收敛的时空演进特征

文章基于动态演进视角,运用Dagum基尼系数和Kernel密度估计法考察我国区域经济增长差异与收敛特征,从动态共同相关效应视角分析条件收敛的影响因素。结果表明:我国区域经济增长的总体基尼系数呈波动下降趋势。东、中、西和东北四大板块基尼系数变化趋势与我国区域经济增长总体基尼系数变化趋势一致。四大板块的区域间差异是引起我国区域经济增长差异的主要原因。东部地区经济分化是引起绝对差距扩大的主要原因。我国区域经济增长存在条件收敛,人力资本存量和物质资本存量是促进区域经济增长条件收敛的主要因素。

基于混频数据的中国进口日度景气测度研究

进口对经济增长存在显著的促进作用,如何及时准确地把握进口形势、提升稳外贸优结构调控的科学化水平是亟待解决的重要问题。本文利用AIS海运大数据指标,结合其他日度指标和月度进口增速,通过日度混频动态因子模型构建进口日度景气指数以实时监测中国进口运行走势。研究分析发现,该指数具有良好的有效性和实时性。研究表明,在2009—2010年、2016—2018年和2020—2021年,中国进口呈现出三种不同的复苏路径。自2001年以来进口景气共经历五轮周期,总体表现出“速升缓降”的非对称特征。通过比较进口日度景气指数和BDI的基本走势发现,二者存在一定的相似性。

长钢9号高炉治理渣皮脱落的生产实践

8月份,首钢长钢9号高炉在冶炼过程中炉身下部区域频繁出现渣皮脱落现象,针对渣皮脱落的原因以及对高炉冶炼的影响进行分析,通过采取加强原燃料管控、上部装调制度调整、优化下部送风制度、活跃炉缸以及加强炉前出铁组织等措施,炉身下部区域渣皮脱落现象得到有效控制,炉况稳定性提高,高炉利用系数提高0.09 t/(m^(3)·d),燃料比降低约14.5 kg/t,为日后高炉稳定顺行和经济指标的完成积累了宝贵经验。

韶关地区数据中心项目空调系统方案对比研究

基于“新基建”“双碳”“东数西算”三大发展政策的背景,对韶关地区新建数据中心的空调系统方案选择做出对比分析。为满足韶关地区对新建数据中心PUE不大于1.25,WUE不大于1.4 L/kWh的能耗指标要求,对采用间接蒸发冷却空调机组(AHU)、间接蒸发冷却塔、蒸发冷却热管多联系统3种不同新型设备的空调系统方案展开对比。针对上述3种空调系统方案从PUE值、WUE值、经济性、出柜率、运维及客户接受度等方面进行了分析,为韶关地区新建数据中心空调系统方案的选择提供依据和思路。

某大型综合体暖通空调节能技术应用

随着城市化进程的加速和人们对生活质量要求的提高,大型综合体作为城市发展的重要组成部分,其能耗问题日益凸显。特别是在暖通空调领域,由于能耗占比较大,如何实现节能成为了行业关注的焦点。以某大型综合体为例,介绍了暖通空调节能技术的应用情况,包括现状分析、性能测试、空调系统冷热源节能改造、投资及运维经济分析等。通过应用大数据、核心算法等技术,推送系统优化策略,初步实现了智慧节能。

南宁市邕北灌区外引骨干水源方案比选

拟建的南宁市邕北灌区位于南宁市城区北部,郁江干流与红水河干流之间的区域。根据周边河流水系及已建水利工程分布情况,灌区外引骨干水源初拟岩滩水电站引水、大化水电站引水、分散提水3个方案。本文根据各方案的水资源条件、工程地质条件、工程布置方案、工程施工条件、经济指标以及运行管理等方面进行综合比选,初步选定最优的外引骨干水源方案。