The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on centr...The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.展开更多
Inflation:China’s consumer price index, a gauge of inflation, rose 1.5 percent in January and 2.8 percent in April year on year, close to the full-year target of 3 percent.Liquidity: China unleashed
In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth...In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.展开更多
This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,t...This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.展开更多
This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GA...This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewnes...This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.展开更多
This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractiona...This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractional-order integral, the effective sliding mode controller is designed to realize the asymptotical stability of fractional-order chaotic economical systems. Comparing with the existing results, the main results in this paper are more practical and rigorous. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed sliding mode control method.展开更多
This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly ...This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.展开更多
Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and ec...Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.展开更多
This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the ...This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.展开更多
Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capita...Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.展开更多
With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries...With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.展开更多
Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from c...Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.展开更多
China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency...China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs.This study shows that,in periods of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),SOEs have performed a special function as"macroeconomic stabilizers."Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019,we investigate five aspects of SOEs'unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers:employment,investment,growth,financial operation,and expectations.When EPU increased,SOEs had more employment,higher investment expenditure,lower performance volatility,more robust financial structures,and more stable expectations than private firms.We employ the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables.The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.展开更多
This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods o...This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.展开更多
The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s f...The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s firms have actively sought overseas invest-ment opportunities.This paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and cross-border cap-ital flow decisions for listed firms in China.Our findings demon-strate that EPU originating from China does not seem to dissuade FDI inflow into China,but it does curtail FDI outflow from the country.It appears that government policies and the uncertainty the policies bring are deterministic for FDI.展开更多
This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective.We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertain...This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective.We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility.The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’trading behaviors.First,we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty,whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty.Second,the foreign investors’feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises.Third,lagged negative(positive)response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive(negative)feedback trading.Fourth,the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty.Specifically,we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty.In contrast,they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.展开更多
To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a ...To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a SVAR model,aiming to simultaneously identify economic policy uncertainty shocks and the three conventional structural shocks of demand,supply and monetary policy.The research shows that(1)economic policy uncertainty shocks,though not the major factor for economic fluctuations in China,exhibit characteristics similar to those of negative demand shocks with inflation effect obviously stronger than output effect;(2)in the full sample period,demand shocks are the primary driving factor for China’s economic fluctuations,followed by supply shocks;(3)supply shocks are the most important driving force behind inflation and monetary policy adds fuel to the flame,while economic policy uncertainty shocks exert obvious inhibition on inflation.The academic contribution of this paper is showing some robust empirical facts of economic policy uncertainty’s effects on macroeconomic fluctuations from the biggest developing country,and the policy implication of our research is to provide academic support for the decision of“macroeconomic policies should remain stable”.展开更多
This paper investigates the frequency connectedness among economic policy uncertainties of G20 countries using the novel frequency connectedness proposed by Barunik and Krehlik(2018)which can depict the dynamic connec...This paper investigates the frequency connectedness among economic policy uncertainties of G20 countries using the novel frequency connectedness proposed by Barunik and Krehlik(2018)which can depict the dynamic connectedness not only over time but also across different frequencies.The empirical results obtained in this paper demonstrate that,firstly,the connectedness among economic policy uncertainties is significant,and the spillover effects during the financial crisis and the postfinancial crisis period are stronger than the pre-financial crisis period.Secondly,the United States,France,and Australia are the main net-transmitters of the economic policy uncertainty spillovers while Brazil,Italy,Mexico,and Russia act as the main net-recipients of the spillovers.Thirdly,the major international events may significantly enhance the spillover transmissions of economic policy uncertainty among different countries,thus increasing the magnitude of the total connectedness.Finally,the economic policy uncertainty spillovers are mainly transmitted in the short term,i.e.,1~4 months instead of longer time horizons in terms of the magnitude of the frequency connectedness measures.The findings of this paper not only have profound theoretical and practical significance but also provide several significant implications for the policymakers,supervision agents,international traders,and various investors.展开更多
This paper analyses the impact of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns.It uses an unbalanced panel dataset of monthly observations for 22 countries for the period 1985–2020.It controls ...This paper analyses the impact of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns.It uses an unbalanced panel dataset of monthly observations for 22 countries for the period 1985–2020.It controls for a set of macroeconomic and market structure variables while also taking into consideration the poten-tial effects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis.This paper shows that the impact of geopolitical risks is negative and statistically signifi-cant.The economic interpretation of our main results is that a one-unit standard deviation increase in geopolitical risks decreases stock returns by 10.53–42.14%of its sample mean.For comparison,this paper uses alternatively the global economic policy uncertainty index and the economic policy uncertainty country index,and also finds a statistically significant negative relationship although it is weaker in the latter case.展开更多
基金the National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science of China(Grant No.21BJY206)。
文摘The covID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented social attention to economic uncertainty and negative interest rate policy(NIRP).How does uncertainty affect economic activity,and how effective is a NIRP based on central bank digital currency(CBDC)?To answer the two questions,we constructed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that accommodates sticky prices and wages.The results indicated:(i)Economic uncertainty has substantially reduced investment,output,wage,and loans,which increases unemployment risk.In the short term,it has triggered impulsive consumption by households,while consumption has fallen into a slump in the long run.(ii)After suffering an uncertainty shock,the economy entered short-term stagflation and long-term deflation.The short-term stagflation was mainly caused by resident wage adjustment,and the long-term deflation was due to the decline in effective demand caused by unemployment risk.(ii)CBDC could eliminate the zero lower bound(ZLB)constraint,thereby improving the effectiveness of NIRP.Compared with traditional currency,CBDCbased NIRP could more effectively smooth macroeconomic fluctuations and alleviate the negative impact of an uncertainty shock,which is more conducive to restoring market confidence and promoting economic recovery.
文摘Inflation:China’s consumer price index, a gauge of inflation, rose 1.5 percent in January and 2.8 percent in April year on year, close to the full-year target of 3 percent.Liquidity: China unleashed
文摘In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.
文摘This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71871030,72131011)the Open Fund Project of Key Research Institute of Philosophies and Social Sciences in Hunan University of China(No.20FEFMZ1).
文摘This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71861008,72063005,U1811462,71532009)the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(718QN221,2019RC151)the Scientific Research Foundation of Hainan University(kyqd(sk)1809,kyqd1634).
文摘This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51207173 and 51277192)
文摘This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractional-order integral, the effective sliding mode controller is designed to realize the asymptotical stability of fractional-order chaotic economical systems. Comparing with the existing results, the main results in this paper are more practical and rigorous. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed sliding mode control method.
文摘This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.
基金This paper is the result of Yangzhou University Science and innovation fund(Project No.:x20200820).
文摘Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.
基金the support of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of the Ministry of Education"Research on policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises’shadow banking activities and its economic effects"(20YJC790040)School Level Special Research Project of Beijing International Studies University(KYZX20A008).
文摘This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.
基金sponsored by the Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)2018 Emergency Management Project“Exchange Rate Market Variation,Cross-Border Capital Flow and Financial Risk Prevention”(Grant No.71850005)the NSFC Youth Program“Dynamic Estimation of Foreign Exchange Market Pressure in the Process of Capital Account Opening and Evaluation of the Central Bank’s Intervention Policy Effects”(Grant No.71803204).
文摘Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71631004,72033008the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.18YJA790101
文摘With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.
基金supported by Chengdu University of Technology “Double First-Class”initiative Construction Philosophy and Social Sciences Key Construction Project “Research on the Forming Mechanism of Laborers’Democratic Participation in Digital Platform under Algorithm Control”(Project No.:ZDJS202210)the Philosophy and Social Science Research Fund of Chengdu University of Technology“Research on the Guarantee Mechanism of Workers’Right to Speak in the New Business under the People’s Democracy in the Whole Process”(Project No.:YJ2022-YB022)the views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the foundations.
文摘Environmental degradation is one of the most debatable topics at international forums and it is considered a prime concern for the entire world.Therefore,researchers and policymakers have turned their attention from conventional economic growth to green growth.Although the existing literature has discussed several determinants of green growth,the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),renewable energy consumption(RENE),and institutional quality(IQ)on green growth(GGDP)is relatively unexplored.Hence,this study is the earliest attempt to investigate the impact of EPU,IQ,and RENE on GGDP for emerging seven(E-7)countries from 1996 to 2019.In doing so,we apply panel quantile regression(PQR).The empirical findings delineate that EPU has a negative impact on GGDP,whereas IQ and RENE enhance the GGDP in E-7 countries.Based on the outcomes,this study suggests policy implications for achieving targets of the SDG 07,SDG 08,SDG 13,and SDG 16.The governments of these countries can achieve higher GGDP by ensuring political stability and reliable macroeconomic policies and through making such flexible policies that can easily control or address unpredictable future economic issues.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72002213)Rui Ruan's research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72303266)+1 种基金the Program for Innovation Research at Central University of Finance and Economics(CUFE)the Program for Innovation Research at Center for China Fiscal Development at CUFE.
文摘China has many state-owned enterprises(SOEs)and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades.China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs.This study shows that,in periods of economic policy uncertainty(EPU),SOEs have performed a special function as"macroeconomic stabilizers."Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019,we investigate five aspects of SOEs'unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers:employment,investment,growth,financial operation,and expectations.When EPU increased,SOEs had more employment,higher investment expenditure,lower performance volatility,more robust financial structures,and more stable expectations than private firms.We employ the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables.The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.
基金The project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China:a study on the timing of stock repurchase of Chinese listed companies:theory,demonstration and policy(No.71373162)
文摘This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover.The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress.However,the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover,thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes.Based on the literature,we propose a checkand-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change,according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures.Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al.(2013),we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis.Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover,and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.
文摘The trend of foreign direct investment(FDI)in China has switched from inflow to outflow following the rapid economic growth dur-ing the past several decades.Stimulated by government policies,in recent years China’s firms have actively sought overseas invest-ment opportunities.This paper examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty(EPU)and cross-border cap-ital flow decisions for listed firms in China.Our findings demon-strate that EPU originating from China does not seem to dissuade FDI inflow into China,but it does curtail FDI outflow from the country.It appears that government policies and the uncertainty the policies bring are deterministic for FDI.
文摘This study discusses the trading behavior of foreign investors with respect to economic uncertainty in the South Korean stock market from a time-varying perspective.We employ a news-based measure of economic uncertainty along with the model of time-varying parameter vector autoregression with stochastic volatility.The empirical analysis reveals several new findings about foreign investors’trading behaviors.First,we find evidence that positive feedback trading often appears during periods of high economic uncertainty,whereas negative feedback trading is exclusively observable during periods of low economic uncertainty.Second,the foreign investors’feedback trading appears mostly to be well-timed and often leads the time-varying economic uncertainty except in periods of global crises.Third,lagged negative(positive)response of net flows to economic uncertainty is found to be coupled with lagged positive(negative)feedback trading.Fourth,the study documents an asymmetric response of foreign investors with regard to negative and positive shocks of economic uncertainty.Specifically,we find that they instantly turn to positive feedback trading after a negative contemporaneous response of net flows to shocks of economic uncertainty.In contrast,they move slowly toward negative feedback trading after a positive response of net flows to uncertainty shocks.
文摘To investigate to what extent economic policy uncertainty affects China’s macroeconomic fluctuations,we construct a mixed identification scheme that combines some regular sign restrictions with zero restriction in a SVAR model,aiming to simultaneously identify economic policy uncertainty shocks and the three conventional structural shocks of demand,supply and monetary policy.The research shows that(1)economic policy uncertainty shocks,though not the major factor for economic fluctuations in China,exhibit characteristics similar to those of negative demand shocks with inflation effect obviously stronger than output effect;(2)in the full sample period,demand shocks are the primary driving factor for China’s economic fluctuations,followed by supply shocks;(3)supply shocks are the most important driving force behind inflation and monetary policy adds fuel to the flame,while economic policy uncertainty shocks exert obvious inhibition on inflation.The academic contribution of this paper is showing some robust empirical facts of economic policy uncertainty’s effects on macroeconomic fluctuations from the biggest developing country,and the policy implication of our research is to provide academic support for the decision of“macroeconomic policies should remain stable”.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71573042)the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2017J01794)
文摘This paper investigates the frequency connectedness among economic policy uncertainties of G20 countries using the novel frequency connectedness proposed by Barunik and Krehlik(2018)which can depict the dynamic connectedness not only over time but also across different frequencies.The empirical results obtained in this paper demonstrate that,firstly,the connectedness among economic policy uncertainties is significant,and the spillover effects during the financial crisis and the postfinancial crisis period are stronger than the pre-financial crisis period.Secondly,the United States,France,and Australia are the main net-transmitters of the economic policy uncertainty spillovers while Brazil,Italy,Mexico,and Russia act as the main net-recipients of the spillovers.Thirdly,the major international events may significantly enhance the spillover transmissions of economic policy uncertainty among different countries,thus increasing the magnitude of the total connectedness.Finally,the economic policy uncertainty spillovers are mainly transmitted in the short term,i.e.,1~4 months instead of longer time horizons in terms of the magnitude of the frequency connectedness measures.The findings of this paper not only have profound theoretical and practical significance but also provide several significant implications for the policymakers,supervision agents,international traders,and various investors.
文摘This paper analyses the impact of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns.It uses an unbalanced panel dataset of monthly observations for 22 countries for the period 1985–2020.It controls for a set of macroeconomic and market structure variables while also taking into consideration the poten-tial effects of the 2007–2009 financial crisis.This paper shows that the impact of geopolitical risks is negative and statistically signifi-cant.The economic interpretation of our main results is that a one-unit standard deviation increase in geopolitical risks decreases stock returns by 10.53–42.14%of its sample mean.For comparison,this paper uses alternatively the global economic policy uncertainty index and the economic policy uncertainty country index,and also finds a statistically significant negative relationship although it is weaker in the latter case.