Capital flows, economic growth and the real effective exchange rate: Evidence from China

This paper examines the Granger causal relationship between capital flows and economic growth in China over the period 1998Q1–2019Q2,allowing for real effective exchange rate(REER)effects.As parameter instability tests indicate structural changes,we use bootstrap rolling window causality tests,which suggest that the causal nexus between capital flows and GDP growth is time-varying.We find that the causal links between foreign direct investments(FDIs)and GDP growth are hardly affected by the REER,whereas the REER plays a more important role in affecting the causal connections between portfolio investments and other investments and GDP growth.Our results suggest that cumulative portfolio inflows and cumulative other investment inflows harm GDP growth,whereas cumulative portfolio outflows and cumula-tive other investment outflows positively affect GDP growth.

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Regional Economic Growth in China： Evidence from Provincial Data

Using data for the period 2000-2011, we construct province-level real effective exchange rate （REER） indices for China and test the effect of REER depreciation on regional economic growth in a generalized method of moments regression framework. Our results show that REER depreciation, in general, promotes regional economic growth, through increasing net exports and lowering FDI costs. After dividing the full sample into coastal and inland subsamples, we find that REER depreciation influences economic growth in inland areas but not in coastal areas. This is due to the fact that the inland areas have more surplus labor or other resources to expand their production capacity when REER depreciation leads to increased worm demand. Furthermore, compared to inland areas, processing-and-assembly trade comprises a larger share of trade in the coastal areas, where traders import more raw materials and intermediate goods to process and assemble goods. When the exchange rate depreciates, the costs of imported materials and immediate goods increase. In this case, the benefits from REER depreciation in coastal areas are offset to some extent and are thus lower than in inland areas.

Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China:2000-2009

This paper measures the industry-specific real effective exchange rate （REER） for China by matching domestic and foreign industry-level price and trade data series. We find that after 2005 the REER appreciates more in the ＂chemical, plastics, rubber and fuels industry＂ and the ＂＇machinery and equipment industry,＂ but remains roughly constant or even depreciates in other industries. The nominal exchange rate generally accounts for over 50 percent of the aggregate real effective exchange rate JTuetuations, but this conclusion does not apply to three of nine industries. We apply the industry-specific REER to re-examine the relationship between the exchange rate and trade, and find that the industry-specific REER index performs better than the traditional aggregate REER index. We recommend that the Chinese Government officially adopt industry-specific exchange rates instead of using the aggregate effective exchange rates to evaluate the competitiveness of Chinese industries in the international market.

Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate for Third Market Competition:An Approach Based on Disaggregated Trade Data

When measuring the nominal effective exchange rate （NEER）, three factors should be considered： direct import competition, direct export competition and third market competuion. The traditional NEER methodology using aggregated export trade data underestimates the competition between countries producing homogeneous goods, so that the weight of the effective exchange rates is too reliant on trade scale. Based on 2002 6-digit items of the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System, this paper employs the competitive stress index to adjust the weighting system of the renminbi NEER for third market competition. In the new weighting system, European countries and some emerging economies have higher weights compared with some of the developed countries, including the USA, Japan and resources-dominated eeonomies~ This research will facilitate the understanding of changes in China＇s export competitiveness.

Analysis of the Moderator Effect of RMB Exchange-- Rate on Export The Case of Guangdong Province in China

An important limitation of the research literatures which study the effect on the export of the real effective exchange rates is the lack of application of interaction or moderator effect among the independent variables. To remedy this lacuna, the authors developed a model in which real effective exchange rate moderated the effect of import and utilization of foreign capital on export. The sample comprised 11 years＇ data in Guangdong China. The result showed that real effective exchange rate of RMB affected the export by interacting with utilization of foreign capital. Moreover, to some degree, the real effective exchange rate can also act as moderator between import and export.

Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Historical Review, Experience and Prospect

The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.

On China’s Exchange Rate Flexibility and Stability: The More Flexible against the U.S. Dollar, the More Stable in Effective Terms

The Chinese authorities have often emphasized the importance of maintaining the renminbi＇s stable exchange rate without stating explicitly how this stability should be measured. This paper argues that the relevant concept for this stability should be in terms of the rnminbi＇s effective exchange rate, rather than its rate against any particular currency, such as the U. S. dollar. Under the current circumstances where key currencies＇ exchange rates fluctuate freely, if the authorities wish to maintain the stability of the renmnibi＇s effective exchange rate, they would want to let the renminbi＇s exchange rate fluctuate much more against the U. S. dollar than in the past because such fluctuations would greatly reduce the magnitude of the renminbi＇s fluctuations against other key currencies and thus its effective exchange rate. This point has been demonstrated by illustrative figures and by comparing the renminbi＇s hypothetical, greater exchange rate fluctuations with its actual fluctuations.

China's Import–exchange Rate Linkage:Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.

Exchange Rate Change, Factor Market Distortion and Company Performance

Based on the matched data of China’s tax survey and customs from 2007 to 2011,this paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate changes on the performance of companies by region from the perspective of factor market distortion.The results show that for import companies,the RMB appreciation significantly contributes to improving their performance and this phenomenon is more pronounced in areas with high factor market distortions.Channel tests show that the proportion of intermediate goods imported by final producers increases with regional factor market distortions.Therefore,the appreciation of the national currency is more favorable for areas with high factor market distortions(companies with high proportion of imported intermediate goods).In addition,the appreciation of the national currency will promote the production of China’s upstream intermediate goods producers by expanding the output of downstream enterprises.This paper complements previous studies on the differential impact of RMB exchange rate changes on regional economic growth from a micro perspective.