An Empirical Analysis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in China's Stock Market

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most important theories in finance.According to this hypothesis,in a stock market with sound laws,good functions,high transparencies,and extensive competitions,all valuable information is timely,accurately,and fully reflected in the trend of stock prices including the current and future values of enterprises.Unless there are market manipulations,it would be impossible for investors to gain more above the average profits in the market by analyzing former prices.Since the efficient market hypothesis has been introduced,it has become an interest in the empirical research of the security market.It is one of the most controversial investment theories and there are many evidences supporting and also opposing this hypothesis.Nevertheless,this hypothesis still holds an important status in the basic framework of mainstream theories in modem financial markets.By analyzing simulated investment transactions in regard to stock trading of three different enterprises,this paper verified that the efficient market hypothesis is partially valid.

Cryptocurrencies,gold,and WTI crude oil market efficiency:a dynamic analysis based on the adaptive market hypothesis

This study examined the evolving oil market efficiency by applying daily historical data to the three benchmark cryptocurrencies(Bitcoin,Ethereum,and Ripple),gold,and West Texas Intermediate(WTI)crude oil.The data coverage of daily returns was from August 2015 to April 2019.We applied two alternative tests to examine linear and nonlinear dependency,i.e.,automatic portmanteau and generalized spectral tests.The analysis of observed results validated the adaptive market hypothesis(AMH)in all markets,but the degree of adaptability between the data was different.In this study,we also analyzed the existence of evolutionary behavior in the market.To achieve this goal,we checked the results by applying the rolling-window method with three different window lengths(50,100,and 150 days)on the test statistics,which was consistent with the findings of AMH.

基于EMH的厦门市商品住宅市场有效性测度的实证分析

基于有效市场假说（EMH）,以2006~2013年厦门市商品住宅月均价为样本,对商品住宅市场的有效程度进行多角度测算。结果显示,价格序列存在单位根和严重的自相关,且游程检验的Z统计值不大于99%显著水平下的临界值,表明厦门市商品住宅价格对市场信息反映程度较低,市场尚未达到弱式有效。

论EMH在实证研究中的有效性——基于EMH在中国农产品期货市场效率实证研究的分析

有效市场假说在金融市场效率问题讨论中长期占据主导地位,凸现的是"公平游戏"精神下的市场效率内涵;而基于EMH的实证研究,多数依赖随机游走模型。EMH缺乏应有的规范性因素,现有实证研究尚不能令人信服地判定新兴的中国农产品期货市场具有何种效率。理解金融市场结构的有效方法是在期货市场基本功能实现基础上,摆脱独立、正态或有限方差的假设,探索中国农产品期货市场特性。

Efficiency of Stock Exchange Markets in G7 Countries： Bootstrap Causality Approach

Market efficiency is based on efficient market hypothesis （EMH）. EMH claims that market totally contains the available information. In case of EMH, valid investors who take position will not gain abnormal profits. If the efficiency can not be established, that is, if markets are not efficient, investors will have the opportunity of abnormal profits. This paper investigates the causality relations to determine validity of EMH among G7 （Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States） countries＇ stock exchange markets for the period from July 2003 to October 2014. To find out whether the variables cause each other or not provides knowledge about the market efficiency. The implication of this analysis is twofold. One implication is that if the markets are informationally efficient, the possibility of abnormal returns through arbitrage is ruled out and investors can reduce the risk of their investment for the same expected returns, if they establish portfolios that consist of both markets rather than consisting of only one market. Based on this, Hacker-Hatemi-J. bootstrap causality test that is newer and has many advantages contrary to other tests was used. Results showed that EMH is valid among each G7 countries＇ stock exchange markets. Also portfolio diversification benefits exist among these markets.

Carbon trading thickness and market efficiency in a socialist market economy

Unlike the European Union emission trade system(EU ETS), China s pilot ETSs implemented diversified policy designs instead of using a uniform framework. Variance ratio test is used to evaluate the Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH) in China's carbon trading markets. The results of two versions of variance ratio tests indicate that the carbon trading market in Hubei is considered weak form efficient, and the socialist market economy does not necessarily lead to market inefficiency in carbon trading markets. Thin trading activities generate market frictions and bias the Efficient Market Hypothesis(EMH) tests.

Nonlinearity in Stock Exchange Markets: The Case of Bist 100 Indices

In this paper,using data for the Bist 100 index,we investigate the presence of nonlinearities by employing several nonlinearity tests.The Brock,Dechert,and Scheinkman(BDS)and runs tests were first applied to the series to show an initial indication of nonlinearity.The findings for the BDS and runs test of randomness were followed by other sets of direct nonlinearity tests developed by White(1989),Terasvirta(1993),Keenan(1985),and Tsay(1986).Also,the Threshold Autoregression(TAR)test is employed as a final test to confirm the existence of nonlinearity in the Turkish stock exchange market.From the results of the nonlinearity test,it is concluded that the Bist 100 index is characterised by the presence of nonlinearities and cycles.This finding is in contrast with the efficient market hypothesis(EMH)implying that the Turkish stock exchange market is inefficient.

Decision-making under Market Indeterminacy

The Efficient Markets Hypothesis(EMH)is the focusing topic in the past 50 years of financial market researches.Many empirical studies are then provided that want to test EMH but have no consensus.The perception of EMH determines the attitude and strategy of participants and regulators in financial market.One perception of EMH argues that investors’behavior of seeking abnormal profits and arbitrage drives prices to their“correct”value.Investigating the“correct”value derives the concept of“market indeterminacy”.It means the inability to determine whether stock prices are efficient or inefficient.Market indeterminacy pervades stock markets because“correct”prices are unknown because of imperfect information and model sensitivity.Market indeterminacy makes arbitrage risky and makes event studies unreliable in some policy and litigation applications.The concept of market efficiency is needed to be re-recognized considering the mechanism of price formation.In order to further research and practice in law and financial market,there needs a view from the“jumping together”of disparate disciplines.Adaptive Markets Hypothesis(AMH)that using the evolutionary principles in financial market is a new viewpoint on cognitive decision and deserves to be paid more attention to.

高频交易的监管透视——证券市场的结构变革与法律回应

高频交易是当前日益显著的证券交易方式,其各类策略的兴起不仅得益于自动化算法带来的速度优势,还与法律提供的特定市场基础结构密切相关。根据微观市场结构理论的分析,高频交易从根本上影响了市场流动性供给与有效价格形成机制,造成了两方面重大监管挑战:一是高频交易者因市场异常波动而大量撤出可能放大市场的流动性危机,乃至形成系统性的市场崩盘风险;二是其算法模型的内在缺陷及其对专业知情交易者的利益损害,可能削弱长期的市场价格发现能力和资源分配效率。面对高频交易对市场质量的潜在负面影响,证券监管需要超越传统的披露范式,着重在证券市场基础结构层面予以回应。具体而言,监管者应当采取交易减速机制作为事后规制策略,确立高频交易者的做市义务与相应的报偿方案,以及保障投资者对市场数据的公平获取。

基于中国股指开盘价差与缺口的统计分析和实证研究

本文采用统计分析、假设检验和回归模型,基于历史数据深入探讨了中国股市指数中的开盘价差率和缺口现象的特征和相关假说,并验证了13个相关假说。研究结果发现,价格缺口的方向性和开盘价差率的变动幅度与市场的某些关键特性存在显著的相关性,缺口现象对当日成交量和成交额变化率也存在显著影响。此外,通过选股回测验证了开盘价差率作为选股因子的有效性。本文为理解股市行为提供了新的视角,对投资决策和市场分析具有重要意义。

分形市场假说在沪深股票市场中的实证研究

首先介绍并分析了有效市场假说的不足 ,指出不切实际的简化和线性思维范式是导致有效市场假说倍受批评的原因。其次介绍分形市场假说 ,很好地解决了有效市场假说暴露出的问题 ,使得对市场的描述更切合实际。最后在沪深股票市场中对分形市场假说进行实证检验 ,得出沪深两市股指收益率具有时间尺度不变性和大于 0 .5的Hurst指数 ,分别为 0 .6 9和 0 .6 4。表明分形市场假说在两地股市中成立。

金融市场技术分析有效性检验的进展评介

技术分析有效性检验已成为金融市场研究中的热点领域 ,本文重点介绍了近期这方面研究的进展情况 ,并给出了简要评价。

证券市场效率理论及其实证研究评述

探讨了证券市场效率的多种涵义及其相互联系,重点对市场信息有效性的理论和实证研究以及对它的挑战进行了评述,并论述了市场信息有效性与技术分析有效性的关系。

我国证券市场波动的Hurst指数

证券市场的波动不服从布朗运动 ,而服从分数布朗运动。Hurst指数是描述分数布朗运动的重要指标。利用R/S分析方法计算出我国证券市场收益率序列的Hurst指数为 0 .6 8。从而说明我国证券市场的波动具有明显的持久性。

我国保险产业市场结构与绩效的关联性分析

对于市场结构与市场绩效的关系问题,理论界存在两个较为权威的假说,即共谋假说和效率结构假说。将通过对我国财产保险和人身保险业市场结构与市场绩效的实证分析来验证这两个假说对保险产业的适用性。

从有效市场假设看我国证券市场的信息披露制度

本文通过有效市场假设和系统性风险两个角度对中国证券市场的信息不对称状况作了实证分析，结论是中国证券市场的信息披露制度还存在很多问题。在中国即将加入WTO的背景下，证券市场面临更进一步的开放，提高市场透明度以符合国际惯例，建立规范、公正的信息披露制度和市场环境就显得更为迫切，最后本文提出了一些对策。

非理性的市场与投资:行为金融理论述评

传统金融理论与实证研究的结果存在着差异 ,引发人们对传统金融理论一系列假设的思考 ,导致行为金融理论的出现。行为金融是研究人们如何解释信息和采取行动的科学 ,它的研究表明投资者并不都是象数量模型中描述的那样以一种理性的、可预知的、无偏见的方式作出投资决策。行为金融理论是一个全新的金融学领域 ,本文综合已有的文献 ,总结行为金融理论研究的最新进展。

基于跳跃特征的证券市场信息融入效率研究

以日间跳跃测量方法为基础,综合日内高频收益序列特征,研究设计了一种甄别金融资产收益日内波动跳跃时刻和规模的方法,对显著跳跃的日内模式、日内跳跃与信息融入效率的关系进行了考察。研究结果发现,显著跳跃在日内本质上是一种信息瞬间完全融入的、激烈的价格发现形式,虽然我国证券市场多数重大信息融入速率较快,但过高的跳跃到达率也反映出市场交易机制尚待完善。

资本市场有效性假说与AR-X-GARCH模型的应用

资本市场有效性假说的实证分析主要有随机游走检验、相关性检验和ARCH类模型检验 ,而ARCH类模型较好地揭示高频金融时间序列的条件方差时变性、波动集束和宽尾分布现象 .使用AR X GARCH (1,1)模型分析深沪两市的弱式有效性。

中国股票市场适应性特征的实证研究

对有效市场假说的质疑以及行为金融理论体系的不完整,使得适应性市场假说成为整合两种理论的综合分析思路。文章以上证综指和深证成指为研究对象,对中国股市适应性特征进行研究,分析股市有效性指标的不确定性;验证股市收益与风险关系的存在和时变性;并选取具有代表性的因素作为市场环境指标,衡量市场条件改变对股市收益与可测性的影响。实证结果表明,中国股市的有效性以及收益与风险关系均具呈现时变特征;市场环境对风险溢价的影响不明显,但对收益可预测性却有显著影响,因此,可以据此判断股市的发展趋势,以便及时调整投资策略和风险管理的方向。