This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of...This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.展开更多
Eggs,as a meat consumer product in China,are closely related to the vegetable basket project.Exploring and predicting the future trend of egg market price is of great significance for stabilizing egg price and market ...Eggs,as a meat consumer product in China,are closely related to the vegetable basket project.Exploring and predicting the future trend of egg market price is of great significance for stabilizing egg price and market supply.In this study,the time series AR model was used for fitting the egg market prices in the 66 d from January 1 to March 7,2021,and the delay operator nlag18 was used for white noise test,giving pr>probability of chisq<0.005.The time series was not a white noise series,and then the stationary series was used for modeling.The optimal model was selected as the AR series(BIC(3,0)),and finally,the egg market price model AM was obtained as X_(t)=9.0556+(1+0.8926)ε_(t),which was the optimal model.The model showed that the egg price fluctuations in 2021 will be clustered,and the later price will be significantly affected by external factors in the previous period.The dynamic prediction results of the model showed that the egg price would stop falling in March 2020,and the egg price would continue to slow down in March.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National KeyTechnology R&D Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan period(2012BAH20B04)the 948 Program of Ministry of Agriculture,China(2013-Z1)
文摘This paper establishes a short-term prediction model of weekly retail prices for eggs based on chaotic neural network with the weekly retail prices of eggs from January 2008 to December 2012 in China.In the process of determining the structure of the chaotic neural network,the number of input layer nodes of the network is calculated by reconstructing phase space and computing its saturated embedding dimension,and then the number of hidden layer nodes is estimated by trial and error.Finally,this model is applied to predict the retail prices of eggs and compared with ARIMA.The result shows that the chaotic neural network has better nonlinear fitting ability and higher precision in the prediction of weekly retail price of eggs.The empirical result also shows that the chaotic neural network can be widely used in the field of short-term prediction of agricultural prices.
基金Construction of Guizhou breeding livestock and poultry genetic resources testing platform[QKZYD(2018)4015]Science and Technology Innovation Talent Team of Guizhou Province s Major Livestock and Poultry Genome Big Data Analysis and Application Research(QKHPTRC[2019]5615)Guizhou Provincial Poultry Industry Joint Research Project.
文摘Eggs,as a meat consumer product in China,are closely related to the vegetable basket project.Exploring and predicting the future trend of egg market price is of great significance for stabilizing egg price and market supply.In this study,the time series AR model was used for fitting the egg market prices in the 66 d from January 1 to March 7,2021,and the delay operator nlag18 was used for white noise test,giving pr>probability of chisq<0.005.The time series was not a white noise series,and then the stationary series was used for modeling.The optimal model was selected as the AR series(BIC(3,0)),and finally,the egg market price model AM was obtained as X_(t)=9.0556+(1+0.8926)ε_(t),which was the optimal model.The model showed that the egg price fluctuations in 2021 will be clustered,and the later price will be significantly affected by external factors in the previous period.The dynamic prediction results of the model showed that the egg price would stop falling in March 2020,and the egg price would continue to slow down in March.
