Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investiga...Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investigate the correlation between rainfall anomalies in Rwanda during the months of September to December (SOND) with the occurrences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is useful for early warning and forecasting of negative effects associated with extreme rainfall anomalies across the country, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis sea surface temperature and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, during the period of 1983-2021. Both empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and composite analysis were used to delineate variability, relationship and the related atmospheric circulation between Rwanda seasonal rainfall September to December (SOND) with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results for Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) for the reconstructed rainfall data set showed three modes. EOF-1, EOF-2 and EOF-3 with their total variance of 63.6%, 16.5% and 4.8%, Indian ocean dipole (IOD) events resulted to a strong positive correlation of rainfall anomalies and Dipole model index (DMI) (r = 0.42, p value = 0.001, DF = 37) significant at 95% confidence level. The composite analysis for the reanalysis dataset was carried out to show the circulation patterns during four different events correlated with September to December seasonal rainfall in Rwanda using T-test at 95% confidence level. Wind anomaly revealed that there was a convergence of south westerly winds and easterly wind over the study area during positive Indian Ocean Diploe (PIOD) and PIOD with El Nino concurrence event years. The finding of this study will contribute to the enhancement of SOND seasonal rainfall forecasting and the reduction of vulnerability during IOD (ENSO) event years.展开更多
The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)is well established.Yet,some El Nino events that occur in the early months of the ye...The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)is well established.Yet,some El Nino events that occur in the early months of the year(boreal spring)transform into a neutral phase before the start of summer,whereas others begin in the boreal summer and persist in a positive phase throughout the summer monsoon season.This study investigates the distinct influences of an exhausted spring El Nino(springtime)and emerging summer El Nino(summertime)on the regional variability of ISMR.The two ENSO categories were formulated based on the time of occurrence of positive SST anomalies over the Nino-3.4 region in the Pacific.The ISMR’s dynamical and thermodynamical responses to such events were investigated using standard metrics such as the Walker and Hadley circulations,vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC),wind shear,and upper atmospheric circulation.The monsoon circulation features are remarkably different in response to the exhausted spring El Nino and emerging summer El Nino phases,which distinctly dictate regional rainfall variability.The dynamic and thermodynamic responses reveal that exhausted spring El Nino events favor excess monsoon rainfall over eastern peninsular India and deficit rainfall over the core monsoon regions of central India.In contrast,emerging summer El Nino events negatively impact the seasonal rainfall over the country,except for a few regions along the west coast and northeast India.展开更多
Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipo...Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever incidence.Method:A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were analysed.El Nino,La Nina,neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric fever.Results:Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for El Nino years(25.5),lower for La Nina years(20.5)and lowest for neutral years(17.6).A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories.However,visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics:an early rise and peaking of cases in the El Nino and La Nina years,and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral years.Further analysis based on monthly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case rates.Median case rates in strong and moderate El Nino months and strong La Nina months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months(P<0.001).Conclusions:El Nino Southern Oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad,and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.展开更多
A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO mode...A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution for corresponding problem is considered.展开更多
文摘Understanding the relationship between rainfall anomalies and large-scale systems is critical for driving adaptation and mitigation strategies in socioeconomic sectors. This study therefore aims primarily to investigate the correlation between rainfall anomalies in Rwanda during the months of September to December (SOND) with the occurrences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The study is useful for early warning and forecasting of negative effects associated with extreme rainfall anomalies across the country, using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis sea surface temperature and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, during the period of 1983-2021. Both empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis and composite analysis were used to delineate variability, relationship and the related atmospheric circulation between Rwanda seasonal rainfall September to December (SOND) with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results for Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) for the reconstructed rainfall data set showed three modes. EOF-1, EOF-2 and EOF-3 with their total variance of 63.6%, 16.5% and 4.8%, Indian ocean dipole (IOD) events resulted to a strong positive correlation of rainfall anomalies and Dipole model index (DMI) (r = 0.42, p value = 0.001, DF = 37) significant at 95% confidence level. The composite analysis for the reanalysis dataset was carried out to show the circulation patterns during four different events correlated with September to December seasonal rainfall in Rwanda using T-test at 95% confidence level. Wind anomaly revealed that there was a convergence of south westerly winds and easterly wind over the study area during positive Indian Ocean Diploe (PIOD) and PIOD with El Nino concurrence event years. The finding of this study will contribute to the enhancement of SOND seasonal rainfall forecasting and the reduction of vulnerability during IOD (ENSO) event years.
基金funding support from the National Monsoon Mission program of the Ministry of Earth Sciences(MoES),New Delhi。
文摘The inverse relationship between the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)is well established.Yet,some El Nino events that occur in the early months of the year(boreal spring)transform into a neutral phase before the start of summer,whereas others begin in the boreal summer and persist in a positive phase throughout the summer monsoon season.This study investigates the distinct influences of an exhausted spring El Nino(springtime)and emerging summer El Nino(summertime)on the regional variability of ISMR.The two ENSO categories were formulated based on the time of occurrence of positive SST anomalies over the Nino-3.4 region in the Pacific.The ISMR’s dynamical and thermodynamical responses to such events were investigated using standard metrics such as the Walker and Hadley circulations,vertically integrated moisture flux convergence(VIMFC),wind shear,and upper atmospheric circulation.The monsoon circulation features are remarkably different in response to the exhausted spring El Nino and emerging summer El Nino phases,which distinctly dictate regional rainfall variability.The dynamic and thermodynamic responses reveal that exhausted spring El Nino events favor excess monsoon rainfall over eastern peninsular India and deficit rainfall over the core monsoon regions of central India.In contrast,emerging summer El Nino events negatively impact the seasonal rainfall over the country,except for a few regions along the west coast and northeast India.
基金funded by Public Health Research Initiative(PHRI)Research grant awarded by PHFI with the financial support of Department of Science and Technology(No.PHRI LN0019).
文摘Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever incidence.Method:A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were analysed.El Nino,La Nina,neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric fever.Results:Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for El Nino years(25.5),lower for La Nina years(20.5)and lowest for neutral years(17.6).A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories.However,visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics:an early rise and peaking of cases in the El Nino and La Nina years,and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral years.Further analysis based on monthly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case rates.Median case rates in strong and moderate El Nino months and strong La Nina months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months(P<0.001).Conclusions:El Nino Southern Oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad,and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos 90111011 and 10471039）, the National Key Basic Research Special Foundation of China （Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304）, the Key Basic Research Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences （Grant No KZCX3-SW-221） and in part by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission （Grant No N.E03004）.
文摘A class of coupled system for the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） mechanism is studied. Using the method of variational iteration for perturbation theory, the asymptotic expansions of the solution for ENSO model are obtained and the asymptotic behaviour of solution for corresponding problem is considered.
