This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper...This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.展开更多
Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System...Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model and weather data spanning 81 years, we assessed the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the grain yields of these crops in the Llano Estacado region of the southern US as affected by cowpea and wheat planting dates and N application rate. Simulated results showed that the El Niño phase of ENSO produced about 30% more yields of mono-cropped cowpea than those produced under the La Niña phase, especially with the cowpeas planted in July. The cowpea yields under El Niño were about 10% more than the 81-year average normal yield, whereas those under La Niña were about 20% less. At the N rates of 0, 50, and 100 kg·ha<sup>−1</sup>, regardless of wheat planting dates, the El Niño years produced, respectively, about 8%, 40%, and 60% higher wheat yields than those produced in the La Niña years, and about 5%, 20%, and 27% more than the 81-year average normal yield. In the La Niña years, the wheat yields at 0, 50, and 100 kg N ha<sup>−1 </sup>were, respectively, about 5%, 15%, and 20% less than the normal yield with similar N levels. The impact of ENSO on wheat yields under cowpea-wheat double-cropping systems was significant, especially for the wheat crops planted on October 15 (October 30) or later following the cowpea crops planted in June (July). At zero N, the mono-cropped wheat yields were not impacted by ENSO due to N limitation. However, the double-cropped wheat yields were impacted by ENSO even when no N fertilizer was applied due to high soil N status caused by N transfer from cowpea stover residues and roots. Results indicated that management strategies need to be attentive to ENSO forecasts and adjust potential planting dates and N application rates with the ENSO phase to avert risks of crop failure and economic loss.展开更多
This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set wit...This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.展开更多
The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relat...The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.展开更多
The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO...The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between circulation patterns and austral summer temperature anomalies in southern Africa. The results show that the formation of continental lows tends to increase the thicknes...This study investigates the relationship between circulation patterns and austral summer temperature anomalies in southern Africa. The results show that the formation of continental lows tends to increase the thickness of the lower atmosphere. Further, the distinct variabilities of high and low pressure under the circulation types, influence air mass advection from the adjacent oceans, as well as atmospheric stability over land. Stronger anticyclonic circulation at the western branch of the Mascarene high-pressure system enhances the low-level cold air advection by southeast winds,decreases the thickness, and lowers the temperature over a majority of the land in southern Africa. Conversely, a weaker Mascarene High, coupled with enhanced cyclonic activity in the southwest Indian Ocean increases low-level warm air advection and increases temperature anomalies over vast regions in southern Africa. The ridging of a closed South Atlantic anticyclone at the southern coast of southern Africa results in colder temperatures near the tip of southern Africa due to enhanced low-level cold air advection by southeast winds. However, when the ridge is weak and westerly winds dominate the southern coast of southern Africa, these areas experience temperature increases. The northward track of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclone, which can be linked to the negative Southern Annular Mode, reduces the temperature in the southwestern part of southern Africa. Also, during the analysis period, El Ni?o was associated with temperature increases over the central parts of southern Africa;while the positive Indian Ocean dipole was linked to a temperature increase over the northeastern, northwestern, and southwestern parts of southern Africa.展开更多
Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was us...Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.展开更多
We investigated the intraseasonal variability of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) using Self-Organizing Maps(SOM) analysis.Variation in intraseason...We investigated the intraseasonal variability of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) using Self-Organizing Maps(SOM) analysis.Variation in intraseasonal subsurface temperature is mainly found along the thermocline.The SOM patterns concentrate in basin-wide seesaw or sandwich structures along an east-west axis.Both the seesaw and sandwich SOM patterns oscillate with periods of 55 to 90 days,with the sequence of them showing features of equatorial intraseasonal Kelvin wave,and have marked interannual variations in their occurrence frequencies.Further examination shows that the interannual variability of the SOM patterns is closely related to ENSO;and maxima in composite interannual variability of the SOM patterns are located in the central Pacific during CP El Nino and in the eastern Pacific during EP El Nino.The se results imply that some of the ENSO forcing is manife sted through changes in the occurrence frequency of intraseasonal patterns,in which the change of the intraseasonal Kelvin wave plays an important role.展开更多
The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global...The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.展开更多
利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系...利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系。结果表明:(1)1970—2019年河南省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,其中年均温以0.24℃/10a的速率递增,且春季气温增温速率最大,冬季气温增温速率最小。(2)过去50年,河南省的气温变化与ENSO事件的强度存在一定的相关关系,20世纪90年代以来,随着厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的增多和强度的加大,对应的河南省气温也显著增加。(3)在ENSO事件发生年份,河南省气温变化与SSTA值呈现比较明显的相关关系,且存在一定的滞后性。因此,河南省在强ENSO事件发生的当年或次年易发生极端灾害事件,需要提高警惕,加强防范。展开更多
El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive an...El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.展开更多
There is a vast upwelling area induced by the southeast monsoon in the waters off South Java,making the region an important fishing ground.Climate events can affect the variation of upwelling,but oceanographers have d...There is a vast upwelling area induced by the southeast monsoon in the waters off South Java,making the region an important fishing ground.Climate events can affect the variation of upwelling,but oceanographers have different understandings on the extent to which climate events control upwelling in this area,which leads to a lack of basis for studies on the evaluation and mechanisms of the variability of fishery resources in the region.The correlation between environmental parameters,including surface temperature(SST),chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration,and climate event indices in South Java from 2003 to 2020 was analyzed.Results show that the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)has a greater influence on the interannual variability of upwelling intensity than ENSO.During the IOD,variations in equatorial latitudinal winds excite different types of Kelvin waves that anomalously deepen or shallow the thermocline,which is the main cause of anomalous variations in upwelling,independent of variations in the local wind field.A correlation between the interannual variability in upwelling and the annual catches was revealed,showing that climatic events indirectly affect fishery resources through upwelling effects.During positive IOD/El Niño periods,strong upwelling delivers more nutrients to the surface layer,which favors fish growth and reproduction,resulting in higher annual catches.A negative IOD/La Niña,on the other hand,leads to weaker upwelling and fewer nutrients into the surface waters.Fish tend to move in deeper waters,making traditional fishing methods less efficient and consequently lower annual catches.展开更多
文摘This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.
文摘Information is limited on the effects of climate variability on cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in the semiarid region of the southern US. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model and weather data spanning 81 years, we assessed the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the grain yields of these crops in the Llano Estacado region of the southern US as affected by cowpea and wheat planting dates and N application rate. Simulated results showed that the El Niño phase of ENSO produced about 30% more yields of mono-cropped cowpea than those produced under the La Niña phase, especially with the cowpeas planted in July. The cowpea yields under El Niño were about 10% more than the 81-year average normal yield, whereas those under La Niña were about 20% less. At the N rates of 0, 50, and 100 kg·ha<sup>−1</sup>, regardless of wheat planting dates, the El Niño years produced, respectively, about 8%, 40%, and 60% higher wheat yields than those produced in the La Niña years, and about 5%, 20%, and 27% more than the 81-year average normal yield. In the La Niña years, the wheat yields at 0, 50, and 100 kg N ha<sup>−1 </sup>were, respectively, about 5%, 15%, and 20% less than the normal yield with similar N levels. The impact of ENSO on wheat yields under cowpea-wheat double-cropping systems was significant, especially for the wheat crops planted on October 15 (October 30) or later following the cowpea crops planted in June (July). At zero N, the mono-cropped wheat yields were not impacted by ENSO due to N limitation. However, the double-cropped wheat yields were impacted by ENSO even when no N fertilizer was applied due to high soil N status caused by N transfer from cowpea stover residues and roots. Results indicated that management strategies need to be attentive to ENSO forecasts and adjust potential planting dates and N application rates with the ENSO phase to avert risks of crop failure and economic loss.
基金US National Natural Science Foundation, No.0624359 Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KSCX1-YW-09+5 种基金 No.KZCX2-YW-305-2 National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B06 No.2008BAK50B06 No.2008BAK47B02 No.2008BAC44B04 China State Major Project for Water Pollution Control and Management, No.2009ZX07106-001 Acknowledgement We are grateful to FANG Yu and YAN Bangyou from the Mountain, River and Lake Office of Jiangxi and WANG Xiaohong, Deputy Director General of the Department of Science and Technology of Jiangxi Provincial Government for their assistance on this project.
文摘This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China's rice production is less climate-sensitive.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41976027)。
文摘The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 40676016 and 10471039)the State KeyProgram for Basic Research of China (Grant Nos 2003CB415101-03 and 2004CB418304)+2 种基金the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No KZCX3-SW-221)in partly by E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (Grant NoN.E03004)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China (Grant No Y606268)
文摘The El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an interannual phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions. In this paper, an asymptotic method of solving the nonlinear equation for the ENSO model is used. And based on a class of oscillator of ENSO model, the approximate solution of a corresponding problem is studied by employing the perturbation method. Firstly, an ENSO model of nonlinear time delay equation of equatorial Pacific is introduced, Secondly, by using the perturbed method, the zeroth and first order asymptotic perturbed solutions are constructed. Finally, from the comparison of the values for a figure, it is seen that the first asymptotic perturbed solution using the perturbation method has a good accuracy. And it is proved from the results that the perturbation method can be used as an analytic operation for the sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial Pacific of the atmosphere-ocean oscillation for the ENSO model.
文摘This study investigates the relationship between circulation patterns and austral summer temperature anomalies in southern Africa. The results show that the formation of continental lows tends to increase the thickness of the lower atmosphere. Further, the distinct variabilities of high and low pressure under the circulation types, influence air mass advection from the adjacent oceans, as well as atmospheric stability over land. Stronger anticyclonic circulation at the western branch of the Mascarene high-pressure system enhances the low-level cold air advection by southeast winds,decreases the thickness, and lowers the temperature over a majority of the land in southern Africa. Conversely, a weaker Mascarene High, coupled with enhanced cyclonic activity in the southwest Indian Ocean increases low-level warm air advection and increases temperature anomalies over vast regions in southern Africa. The ridging of a closed South Atlantic anticyclone at the southern coast of southern Africa results in colder temperatures near the tip of southern Africa due to enhanced low-level cold air advection by southeast winds. However, when the ridge is weak and westerly winds dominate the southern coast of southern Africa, these areas experience temperature increases. The northward track of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclone, which can be linked to the negative Southern Annular Mode, reduces the temperature in the southwestern part of southern Africa. Also, during the analysis period, El Ni?o was associated with temperature increases over the central parts of southern Africa;while the positive Indian Ocean dipole was linked to a temperature increase over the northeastern, northwestern, and southwestern parts of southern Africa.
基金supported by the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-218)the National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403606)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40821092)
文摘Twenty-one-year hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific were performed to validate the influence of ocean subsurface entrainment on SST prediction.A new hybrid coupled model was used that considered the entrainment of subsurface temperature anomalies into the sea surface.The results showed that predictions were improved significantly in the new coupled model.The predictive correlation skill increased by about 0.2 at a lead time of 9 months,and the root-mean-square (RMS) errors were decreased by nearly 0.2°C in general.A detailed analysis of the 1997-98 El Nio hindcast showed that the new model was able to predict the onset,peak (both time and amplitude),and decay of the 1997-98 strong El Nio event up to a lead time of one year,factors that are not represented well by many other forecast systems.This implies,in terms of prediction,that subsurface anomalies and their impact on the SST are one of the controlling factors in ENSO cycles.Improving the presentation of such effects in models would increase the forecast skill.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)(Nos.41976027,41976011,41730534,41476017,41576014)the Bureau of International Cooperation Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.132B61KYSB20170005)
文摘We investigated the intraseasonal variability of equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature and its relationship with El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) using Self-Organizing Maps(SOM) analysis.Variation in intraseasonal subsurface temperature is mainly found along the thermocline.The SOM patterns concentrate in basin-wide seesaw or sandwich structures along an east-west axis.Both the seesaw and sandwich SOM patterns oscillate with periods of 55 to 90 days,with the sequence of them showing features of equatorial intraseasonal Kelvin wave,and have marked interannual variations in their occurrence frequencies.Further examination shows that the interannual variability of the SOM patterns is closely related to ENSO;and maxima in composite interannual variability of the SOM patterns are located in the central Pacific during CP El Nino and in the eastern Pacific during EP El Nino.The se results imply that some of the ENSO forcing is manife sted through changes in the occurrence frequency of intraseasonal patterns,in which the change of the intraseasonal Kelvin wave plays an important role.
基金supported by the State Key Program of the National Natural Science of China(Grant No.41730964)the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster(2018YFC1506000)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975091 and 42175047)National Basic Research Program of China(2015CB453203)UK-China Research&Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP)China as part of the Newton Fund.
文摘The simulation and prediction of the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asia winter monsoon(EAWM),as well as the associated atmospheric circulation,was investigated using the hindcast data from Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5),with a focus on the evolution of model bias among different forecast lead times.While GloSea5 reproduces the climatological means of large-scale circulation systems related to the EAWM well,systematic biases exist,including a cold bias for most of China’s mainland,especially for North and Northeast China.GloSea5 shows robust skill in predicting the EAWM intensity index two months ahead,which can be attributed to the performance in representing the leading modes of surface air temperature and associated background circulation.GloSea5 realistically reproduces the synergistic effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and the Arctic Oscillation(AO)on the EAWM,especially for the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC).Compared with the North Pacific and North America,the representation of circulation anomalies over Eurasia is poor,especially for sea level pressure(SLP),which limits the prediction skill for surface air temperature over East Asia.The representation of SLP anomalies might be associated with the model performance in simulating the interaction between atmospheric circulations and underlying surface conditions.
文摘利用河南省19个气象站点的逐日气温数据,并辅以海表温度距平指数(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)和南方涛动指数,运用多项式拟合、相关性分析等方法,分析了1970—2019年河南省气温变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的关系。结果表明:(1)1970—2019年河南省年、季节气温均呈明显的波动上升趋势,其中年均温以0.24℃/10a的速率递增,且春季气温增温速率最大,冬季气温增温速率最小。(2)过去50年,河南省的气温变化与ENSO事件的强度存在一定的相关关系,20世纪90年代以来,随着厄尔尼诺(El Nino)事件的增多和强度的加大,对应的河南省气温也显著增加。(3)在ENSO事件发生年份,河南省气温变化与SSTA值呈现比较明显的相关关系,且存在一定的滞后性。因此,河南省在强ENSO事件发生的当年或次年易发生极端灾害事件,需要提高警惕,加强防范。
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos.2017YFC1404102,2017YFC1404100)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDB 40000000,XDB 42000000)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.41690122(41690120),41705082,41421005)the Shandong Taishan Scholarship,the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos.2018M640659,2019M662453)YU Yongqiang is jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos.XDA 19060102.XDB 42000000)REN Hong-Li is jointly supported by the China National Science Foundation (No.41975094)the China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (No.2018YFC1506004)
文摘El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.
基金Supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Nos.XDB42010203,XDA19060401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42176090,41776011)。
文摘There is a vast upwelling area induced by the southeast monsoon in the waters off South Java,making the region an important fishing ground.Climate events can affect the variation of upwelling,but oceanographers have different understandings on the extent to which climate events control upwelling in this area,which leads to a lack of basis for studies on the evaluation and mechanisms of the variability of fishery resources in the region.The correlation between environmental parameters,including surface temperature(SST),chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration,and climate event indices in South Java from 2003 to 2020 was analyzed.Results show that the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)has a greater influence on the interannual variability of upwelling intensity than ENSO.During the IOD,variations in equatorial latitudinal winds excite different types of Kelvin waves that anomalously deepen or shallow the thermocline,which is the main cause of anomalous variations in upwelling,independent of variations in the local wind field.A correlation between the interannual variability in upwelling and the annual catches was revealed,showing that climatic events indirectly affect fishery resources through upwelling effects.During positive IOD/El Niño periods,strong upwelling delivers more nutrients to the surface layer,which favors fish growth and reproduction,resulting in higher annual catches.A negative IOD/La Niña,on the other hand,leads to weaker upwelling and fewer nutrients into the surface waters.Fish tend to move in deeper waters,making traditional fishing methods less efficient and consequently lower annual catches.