Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was de-termined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regressio...Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was de-termined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is 61 % for 2002.展开更多
基金Research project of meteorological science and technology in China (96-908-05-03)
文摘Based on the El Nino event data sequence from 1854 to 1993, the nature of sequences was de-termined by using statistical normal and independent tests, etc. With the Markov random process and first order auto-regression predictive model, we set up the prognostication mode and give the time limit of the occurrence of next El Nino event, which probably occurs around 2002.The occurring probability for 2001 is 44 %, and it is 61 % for 2002.
