TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoonactivities in relation with the El Nino and La Nina events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the El Nino years and active in the La Nina years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time andintensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Nino and La Nina years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature (SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singularvalues disassemble (SVD) method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST fief(l.The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Nino years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. whichtake place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Nina years.

近百年ElNino/LaNina事件与北京气候相关性分析

通过对近百年 El Nino/ L a Nina事件与北京气候相关性研究发现 ,El Nino/ L aNina事件与北京夏季 ( 6～ 8月 )降水、平均最高气温 ( 7月 )和冬季 ( 1月 )平均最低气温之间相互关系显著。 El Nino事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈负相关 ,与夏季平均最高气温呈正相关 ,造成降水减少 ,气温年较差增大 ,大陆性增强的气候特点。L a Nina事件与夏季降水、冬季平均最低气温呈正相关 ,与夏季平均最高气温呈负相关 ,使降水增加 ,气温年较差减小 。

赤道东太平洋海温及ElNino/LaNina的反演及预测

基于 NCEP/NCAR资料 ,利用人工神经网络 BP模型及其优化算法比较准确地建立起了赤道纬向风同滞后的赤道东太平洋海温之间的映射关系和预报模型 ,该模型具有较好的拟合精度和预报效果 ,可以效好地描绘赤道东太平洋海温的变化趋势 ,比较成功地模拟和仿真出了 1 982 /1 983和 1 986/1 987年的 El Nino以及 1 988年的 La Nina现象。

近40年秦岭南北地区气候变化及与El Nino/La Nina事件相关性分析

通过对近 40年来秦岭南北地区气候变化及与ElNino/LaNina事件相关性研究发现 ,秦岭南北地区气温与降水同步波动 ,但波动幅度有差别。二者都有暖干化趋势 ,秦岭以北变暖程度超过秦岭以南 ,而秦岭以南年降水量的绝对减少量大于秦岭以北 ,两地年平均气温和年降水量差值有缩小趋势。LaNina事件对秦岭南北地区的影响大于ElNino事件 ,LaNina年年平均气温明显下降 ,超过极显著相关水平 ,而降水增多。ElNino年气温略有升高趋势 ,降水略有减少趋势 。

El Nino－La Nina循环的海－气耦合机制研究

利用１９５０—１９８７年２°×２°格点综合海－气资料（ＣＯＡＤＳ），计算了赤道太平洋洋面（５°Ｓ—３°Ｎ）上逐月平均海温、气压、纬向风、比湿、云以及热量收支各分量的平均值和距平值，分析这些量的演变特征，得出：ＥｌＮｉｎｏ过程中，赤道太平洋洋面上气压梯度减小，东风减弱；赤道中、东太平洋洋面上空气中水汽和云量增加，洋面射入太阳辐射和有效长波辐射减少，感热和潜热交换加强，洋面净获得（损失）热量减少（增加）；ＬａＮｉｎａ过程中，情形相反。最后概括了ＥｌＮｉｎｏ－ＬａＮｉｎａ循环的两种海－气耦合反馈机制。

近57年来El Nino/La Nina事件对鄂尔多斯高原东缘气候的影响

根据1955年～2011年期间发生的El Nino／LaNina事件和鄂尔多斯高原东缘3个站点（兴县，绥德和榆林）的气象资料，利用统计分析的方法研究了1955年以来该区的降水量、温度、旱涝灾害与El Nino／LaNina事件之间的关系，揭示了El Nino／LaNina事件对鄂尔多斯高原东缘气候的影响.结果表明，鄂尔多斯高原东缘近57年降水量呈减少趋势而气温呈升高的趋势；厄尔尼诺年降水量比正常年平均降水量少87.6mm，年平均气温比正常年高0.2℃；拉尼娜年降水量比正常年均降水量少22.3mm，年平均气温比正常年低0.1℃，且其年降水量递减率和增温率略高于全国.厄尔尼诺事件对鄂尔多斯高原东缘降水量减少的影响和气温上升的影响要大于拉尼娜事件对鄂尔多斯高原东缘的影响.由小波分析可知，鄂尔多斯高原东缘降水变化在30a尺度内存在2a、8a、20a、27a的变化周期，而气温变化在30a尺度内存在3a、5a,7a、29a的变化周期.El Nino／LaNina事件对该区的旱涝灾害影响显著，旱灾年份出现厄尔尼诺的概率为63％，出现拉尼娜的概率为25％，厄尔尼诺年易于发生旱灾.

不同PDO位相下El Nino发展年和La Nina年东亚夏季风的季节内变化

基于1957~2017年观测和再分析资料,合成分析了北太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)不同位相下El Ni?o发展年和La Nina年东亚夏季风的环流、降水特征及季节内变化。结果表明,PDO正、负位相作为背景场,分别对El Ni?o发展年、La Nina年东亚夏季风及夏季降水具有加强作用。PDO正位相一方面可增强El Ni?o发展年夏季热带中东太平洋暖海温异常信号,另一方面通过冷海温状态加强中高纬东亚大陆与西北太平洋的环流异常,从而在一定程度上增强了东亚夏季风环流的异常程度;反之,PDO负位相则增强了La Nina年热带海气相互作用以及中高纬环流(如东北亚反气旋)的异常。在季节内变化方面,El Ni?o发展年6月贝湖以东反气旋性环流为东亚地区带来稳定的北风异常,东北亚位势高度减弱;7月开始,环流形势发生调整,日本以东洋面出现气旋性异常,东亚大陆偏北风及位势高度负异常均得到加强;8月,随着东亚夏季风季节进程和El Ni?o发展,西太平洋出现气旋性环流异常,东亚副热带位势高度进一步降低,西北太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)明显东退。La Nina年6月异常较弱,主要环流差异自7月西北太平洋为大范围气旋性异常控制开始,东亚-太平洋遥相关型显著,副高于季节内始终偏弱偏东。上述两种情况下,均造成东亚地区夏季降水总体上偏少,尤其是中国北方降水显著偏少。

近50年来El Nino和La Nina事件对河西走廊东部干旱气候的影响

分析近50多年来ElNino和LaNina事件与河西走廊东部干旱气候变化的关系,总结了近几年干旱气候预测服务及其在决策气象服务中发挥的重要作用,特别是应用ElNino和LaNina事件等引起气候变化的强信号,连续几年准确地预测出与农业生产关系最大的春末夏初干旱,为农业种植结构调整和经济可持续发展等提供了重要的决策气象服务依据和建议。

The numerical criteria and characteristics of El Nino and La Nina

-By using the sea surface temperature (SST) index of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean provided by Climate Analysis Center of U. S. A. , the numerical criteria of El Nino and La Nina events and their quantitative characteristics were calculated. Results show that the El Nino event was characterized with strong intensity, shorter life cycle and significant mature phase; however, the La Nina event has longer live cycle, weak intensity, insignificant mature phase. Through teleconnection analysis, it is found that the intensity index of SST over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean leads the intensity index of subtropical high by six months or so. During the El Nino years, the tropical cyclone over the northwestern Pacific is fewer than normal but stronger, and its genesis area shifts southeastward apparently; while in the La Nina years the number of tropical cyclones are larger.

The responses of CO_2 to El Nino and La Nina in different seasons along 22°-18°N line

The analyses on the responses of partial pressure difference between sea and air (PCO2), and total dissolved CO2 concentration (TCO2), to abnormal air-sea event in different seasons, were based on observational data measured during cruises from Nov. 1986 to Dec 1997 in area of 22°N - 18°N, 114°E-130°E. The results indicated that in every season, TCO2 was high and PCO2 was positive during onset and mature period of El Nino, but they were low and negative respectively during La Nina. Before and after El Nino, partial pressure of CO2 in the sea and air were in the state of equilibrium. Both PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (air) had same responses to E1 Nino in each season. PCO2 (air) and PCO2 (sw) were high during mature period of El Nino were low before and in onset period of El Nino PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) reached peak value during E1 Nino and variation of PCO2 and PCO2 (sw) were same The mean exchange of CO2 from sea to air (flux) reached peak value during El Nino in autumn, and decreased during La Nina. Before and after El Nino the flux is weak, but in opposite direction from air to sea. According to the 1986-1993 average the characteristics of response of TCO2 anomaly to El Nino and La Nina and the range of outstanding variation in different season were discussed. From above it can be deduced some signals showing ENSO event as follows: in Oct.1995, El Nino of 91/95 was over: In May 1995 it is before a new El Nino: In July 1997 it is in onset of new El Nino; In Dec.1997 it is in the mature stage of E1 Nino event.

Predictions of El Nino,La Nina and Record Low Chicago Temperature by Sunspot Number

The El Nino Index, defined as 4 intensities (very strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was positively correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from 1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events more often occur during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas is continuously increased, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number applies in the same way for La Niña. El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in Antarctica and South America. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the South and Central Americas are warmer than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and Central Americas. This results in the Central Pacific Current (CPC) flowing from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in EAC is warmer than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges, due to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges. Chicago was selected as a case study for the relationship between extreme cold weather conditions and minimal sunspot number. Previous attempts at predicting weather patterns in Chicago have largely failed. The years of the record low temperatures in Chicago were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot number from 1873 to 2019. It is forecast that there may occur a weak La Niña in 2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019. It may be possible to predict very strong El Nino events with the year of maximal sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively. An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January, 2019.

Separation of a Signal of Interest from a Seasonal Effect in Geophysical Data:I.El Nino/La Nina Phenomenon

Geophysical signals N of interest are often contained in a parent signal G that also contains a seasonal signal X at a known frequency fX. The general issues associated with identifying N and X and their separation from G are considered for the case where G is the Pacific sea surface temperature monthly data, SST3.4;N is the El Ni?o/La Ni?a phenomenon and the seasonal signal X is at a frequency of 1/(12 months). It is shown that the commonly used climatology method of subtracting the average seasonal values of SST3.4 to produce the widely used anomaly index Nino3.4 is shown not to remove the seasonal signal. Furthermore, it is shown that the climatology method will always fail. An alternative method is presented in which a 1/fX (= 12 months) moving average filter F is applied to SST3.4 to generate an El Ni?o/La Ni?a index NL that does not contain a seasonal signal. Comparison of NL and Nino3.4 shows, among other things, that estimates of the relative magnitudes of El Ni?os from index NL agree with observations but estimates from index Nino3.4 do not. These results are applicable to other geophysical measurements.

南方极端雨雪冰冻过程东亚冬季风环流特征及与EINino/La Nina事件的关系

根据南方极端雨雪冰冻过程的定义,确定1964、1969、1977、1984、2008年的强降水、降温过程为南方极端雨雪冰冻过程。对发生在EINino/LaNina事件之后的南方极端雨雪冰冻过程的分析表明:EINino/LaNina是造成中国东部1月降水异常的一个主要原因,但不能解释气温异常。前一年秋季热带中东太平洋发生暖事件时,利于1月降水黄河流域偏少,长江以南偏多,而发生冷事件时,则利于1月降水黄河流域偏多,长江以南偏少。南方极端雨雪冰冻过程期间对流层低层和高层矢量风距平场表明:发生月对流层低层在1977、1984年南方极端雨雪冰冻过程中,北太平洋出现大范围气旋环流异常,中国长江中下游及以南至菲律宾出现气旋环流异常,长江中下游及以南为东风距平控制。1964、1969、2008年北太平洋出现大范围反气旋环流异常,中国长江中下游及以南出现大片偏南风距平。其共同点是均存在洋面上空暖湿空气向长江中下游及以南地区的输送。南方极端雨雪冰冻过程的前一年11月北太平洋无一例外地出现大范围气旋环流异常,发生月对流层高层副热带西风急流在中国黄海至日本一带较常年都有不同程度的偏强。

EINino和LaNina循环的海—气热交换研究

本文利用1987和1974两个EINina年2°×2°格点COADS资料,计算了30°S-30°N热带太平洋面感热、潜热、有效长波辐射、射入太阳辐射通量及热量收支,得出:EINino和LaNina期间洋面热交换的差异主要发生在赤道洋面,厄瓜多尔和秘鲁西部洋面最为明显;EINino期间,赤道洋面感热和潜热交换加强,有效长波辐射和太阳辐射减弱,洋面净获得(损失)热量减少(增加);LaNina期间,赤道洋面感热和潜热交换减弱,有效长波辐射和太阳辐射增强,洋面净获得(损失)热量增加(减少)。最后概括出一个EINino和LaNina循环的海—气热交换机制模型,并估计得出EINino和LaNina循环的周期约为4年。

A Data Analysis Study on the Evolution of the EI Nino/ La Nina Cycle

The curved surface of the maximum sea temperature anomaly (MSTA) was created from the JEDAC subsurface sea temperature anomaly data at the tropical Pacific between 1955 and 2000. It is quite similar to the depth distribution of the 20℃ isotherm, which is usually the replacement of thermocline. From the distribution and moving trajectory of positive or negative sea temperature anomalies (STA) on the curved surface we analyzed all the El Nino and La Nina events since the later 1960s. Based on the analyses we found that, using the subsurface warm pool as the beginning point, the warm or cold signal propagates initially eastward and upward along the equatorial curved surface of MSTA to the eastern Pacific and stays there several months and then to (urn north, usually moving westward near 10°N to western Pacific and finally propagates southward to return to warm pool to form an off-equator closed circuit. It takes about 2 to 4 years for the temperature anomaly to move around the cycle. If the STA of warm (cold) water is strong enough, there will be two successive El Nino (La Nina) events during the period of 2 to 4 years. Sometime, it becomes weak in motion due to the unsuitable oceanic or atmospheric condition. This kind process may not be considered as an El Nino ( La Nina) event, but the moving trajectory of warm (cold) water can still be recognized. Because of the alternate between warm and cold water around the circuits, the positive (negative) anomaly signal in equatorial western Pacific coexists with negative (positive) anomaly signal near 10°N in eastern Pacific before the outbreak of El Nino (La Nina) event. The signals move in the opposite directions. So it appears as El Nino (La Nina) in equator at 2-4 years intervals. The paper also analyzed several exceptional cases and discussed the effect and importance of oceanic circulation in the evolution of El Nino/ La Nina event.

Thermal Front Variability during the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Banda Sea Using Remotely Sensed Data

The Banda Sea is one of the routes of global ocean currents that move from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean.This flow is known as Indonesian Through Flow(ITF).The Banda Sea is an area where warm and cold water masses meet,so it has the potential for a thermal front.This study aims to understand the variability of thermal front in the Banda Sea during the El Nino Southern Oscillation period.Southern Oscillation Index(SOI)and sea surface temperature(SST)data in 2010,2012 and 2015 were used in this study.SOI data was obtained from http://www.bom.gov.au and SST data were obtained from http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov.The data were processed using ArcGIS 10.4 software and Ms.Office 2013.The results showed the La Nina period occurs in July-December 2010,the Normal period occurs in July-December 2012,and the El Nino period occurs in May-October 2015.In general,during La Nina,the mean SST has higher values than the other periods.On the other hand,the highest thermal front occurs during the El Niño period(10584),followed by the Normal period(7544)and the lowest during the La Niña period(5961),respectively.

Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillations on the incidence of enteric fever in Ahmedabad,India from 1985 to 2017

Objective:To explore the relationship between climate variables and enteric fever in the city of Ahmedabad and report preliminary findings regarding the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillations and Indian Ocean Dipole over enteric fever incidence.Method:A total of 29808 Widal positive enteric fever cases reported by the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and local climate data in 1985-2017 from Ahmedabad Meteorology Department were analysed.El Nino,La Nina,neutral and Indian Ocean Dipole years as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for the same period were compared for the incidence of enteric fever.Results:Population-normalized average monthly enteric fever case rates were the highest for El Nino years(25.5),lower for La Nina years(20.5)and lowest for neutral years(17.6).A repeated measures ANOVA analysis showed no significant difference in case rates during the three yearly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories.However,visual profile plot of estimated marginal monthly means showed two distinct characteristics:an early rise and peaking of cases in the El Nino and La Nina years,and a much more restrained rise without conspicuous peaks in neutral years.Further analysis based on monthly El Nino Southern Oscillations categories was conducted to detect differences in median monthly case rates.Median case rates in strong and moderate El Nino months and strong La Nina months were significantly dissimilar from that during neutral months(P<0.001).Conclusions:El Nino Southern Oscillations events influence the incidence of enteric fever cases in Ahmedabad,and further investigation from more cities and towns is required.

El Nio和La Nia事件对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响

通过合成的El Nino和La Nina的分析发现,一般一个El Nino或La Nina事件大致可以分成爆发前的冬季、发展期的夏季、盛期时的冬季和衰亡期的夏季四个阶段。在此基础上利用NCEP再分析环流资料和中国降水资料分析了东亚冬、夏季风对El Nino和LaNina的响应,结果发现,El Nino和 La Nina事件显著地影响了东亚冬、夏季风的循环。ElNino爆发前的冬季在东亚地区往往有异常强的北风;El Nino发展期的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压偏弱,同时影响我国的西南气流偏弱,从而江淮地区和南方沿海地区多雨,长江中游和华北地区少雨;El Nino盛期的冬季东亚地区则出现异常的南风;而El Nino衰亡期的夏季,西太平洋副热带高压偏强,同时影响我国的西南气流偏强,从而江淮地区少雨,华北、东北以及洞庭湖、鄱阳湖地区多雨。La Nina对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响则与El Nino大致相反,但它的影响不如El Nino的影响显著。对强、弱东亚冬季风后的夏季中国降水异常的分析则表明,正是由于与El Nino或La Nina事件有关的海温异常对东亚冬、夏季风循环的影响才导致了东亚冬季风与随后的夏季风存在着紧密的联系;当冬季风异常不是由与ElNino或La Nina事件有关的海温异常所引起时,两者之间就缺少显著的联系。

El Ni?o发展年和La Ni?a年东亚夏季风季节内变化的比较

基于1979~2013年多种再分析资料,合成分析了El Ni?o发展年和La Ni?a年东亚夏季风的季节内变化。结果表明,东亚夏季风在两种情况下呈现出不同的季节内变化特征。在El Ni?o发展年,初夏期间高纬度地区出现偏北风异常,造成东亚地区位势高度场偏低,西太平洋副热带高压偏东,但均不显著。盛夏期间,El Ni?o强迫造成中太平洋对流增强,副热带西太平洋出现气旋异常,位势高度显著降低,副热带高压明显偏东。与此不同的是,La Ni?a年春季暖池海温偏高,造成夏季对流偏强,西太平洋地区位势高度场偏低,副热带高压减弱东退。此外,La Ni?a年东亚夏季风的季节内变化较为复杂,6月异常较弱,7月达到最强,8月又开始减弱。因此,虽然El Ni?o发展年和La Ni?a年夏季平均副高异常有一定的相似性,但季节内变化则有很大差异,其成因也完全不同。

El Nio/La Nia影响下北部湾海域浮游桡足类种类组成与多样性

以1998年1月至1999年5月对北部湾海域进行的4个航次生态环境综合调查的资料为基础,分析El Nio/La Nia期间北部湾四季浮游桡足类种类组成与多样性,并对其与气候及海洋水文的关系进行初步探讨。结果显示,调查期间共出现浮游桡足类122种,其中32种周年出现,以春(82种)、夏(84种)较多,秋(52种)、冬(67种)较少;四季共出现优势桡足类13种,以广温广盐类型占主导,除微刺哲水蚤(Canthocalanus pauper)外,其余12种为季节性优势种;冬、夏两季受El Nio影响较大,优势种以中型桡足类为主;秋、春季大型桡足类优势地位较高,受La Nia影响明显;北部湾浮游桡足类多样性较高。分析表明,夏季北部湾水温和盐度对浮游桡足类群落多样性有一定影响,但在其他季节,这种影响不明显。